One month and counting…top bats falling?
With that pesky NFL draft behind us, it’s time for sports fans to turn their attention to the equally important draft of Major League Baseball, now only a short month away.
May is often the month in which signability is determined, signability of course being what a player will sign for at what draft slot. This has become a bigger and bigger issue over the years, with the topic even growing with the institution of the mandatory August 15 signing deadline, a measure that was added in an attempt to slow rising bonus aspirations.
From college commitments, personal goals and agent affiliations, there are a variety of things that factor into how much a certain player may want. Without an actual slotting system in place, more and more teams seem to be moving against Major League Baseball’s recommended slot values.
Much of this I’m guessing isn’t new to most of the people that read these pages, but I bring it up with particular interest in this year’s draft and overall available talent.
Earlier this week Allan Simpson pointed out that Florida State catcher Buster Posey may be the primary target of the Tampa Bay Rays, something ESPN’s Peter Gammons has also reported recently. Simpson expanded that if Posey weren’t the pick, one of either Tim Beckham or Gordon Beckham could be in the Rays’ crosshairs, which means the player rated as the top draft-eligible talent in the preseason, Pedro Alvarez, may very well not be the pick.
And if that does indeed ring true come draft day, the bigger question becomes how far does he fall?
We witnessed the same thing a year ago with Matt Wieters, and like Wieters, Alvarez is advised by Scott Boras, and likely is going to be looking for the same kind of financial commitment.
When it comes to financial investments, especially when it comes to the draft, the Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t exactly had a sterling record of success in this area in the past five to 10 years, if not longer. Last year they passed on Wieters (among others), and in 2002 they took Bryan Bullington over B.J. Upton, whom many considered the superior talent. The Pirates felt Bullington would be the player more likely to sign within their somewhat restricted financial parameters.
As an aside to that point, I always argue that it’s fine if a team passes on a certain player for whatever reason, but that team had better make sure to take the right player in that situation to avoid looking as though they made a horrendous mistake, and that is for the well being of the future health of said team.
Which means it’s not as though it’s Pedro Alvarez or bust.
And yes, the Pirates are under new management, and they may be placing a greater emphasis on player development, but until they actually prove that is the direction they are going, since we’ve heard the greater emphasis on player development angle before, I’m going to guess that the Pirates go with a more cost effective option with the second overall pick, and with a huge need for some legitimate impact hitters, I would guess that the Pirates would take whoever the Rays don’t out of Posey and the Beckham’s, with Justin Smoak as another potential candidate.
The Royals would be up next, and they certainly haven’t shied away from big-money deals when it comes to the draft, or even free agency for that matter, which signifies a pretty big change to how things were run in Kansas City in recent years.
However, I’m not sure if they get involved with Pedro Alvarez. They have quite a few big bats that they really like, and they took arguably the most potent of the big bats that were available a year ago when they selected Mike Moustakas with the second overall pick. That leads me to believe that the Royals could be licking their chops with the possibility of being able to select the first pitcher off the board, should that be Brian Matusz of San Diego or a player in their own backyard, Aaron Crow of Missouri.
Baseball may be much brighter in Baltimore if they continue to add onto the impressive young talent they have already assembled with a few key offseason trades and a renewed dedication to building from within. As noted above, they opened their wallets to get Matt Wieters in the fold a year ago, among a few other tough signs, and if Pedro Alvarez makes it to the Orioles, I would imagine that he would fall no further. And if that is the case, Orioles fans should get pretty excited to think about a future lineup that could see Alvarez, Wieters and Billy Rowell joining current big-leaguers Nick Markakis and Adam Jones.
Should Alvarez continue to slide, the Giants picking right after Baltimore might be willing to step up and do what it takes to get Alvarez in the fold since they are in desperate need for young talent, especially young sluggers, and they aren’t afraid to spend big money when they need to. The Nationals at number nine would likely welcome a player such as Alvarez given Mike Rizzo’s recent history negotiating with similar players, and the same goes for the Rangers at 11.
I really don’t see Alvarez falling past the top five. There are some players almost all teams would find a way to pony up the dough for to add them to their system, knowing they may have been handed a once in the lifetime opportunity. We’ll see if the Pirates take that kind of approach in a month’s time.
Fellow Boras advisee Eric Hosmer is also a candidate to fall, especially since his own bonus demands have been made known. Hosmer reportedly is looking for money similar to what Rick Porcello received a year ago, the 27th overall pick who was a candidate to go second overall until the Royals decided to pluck Moustakas (another Boras advisee).
The teams more likely to select and sign him are the same ones that would be in the mix for Alvarez, but I think there is a much greater potential for Hosmer to fall much further than just a few spots again similar to Porcello. I don’t think it’s crazy to think that for the fourth year in a row the Detroit Tigers could take one of the top one to two players overall in the draft after taking Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Porcello where they did the past three years.
College Influence
Money is fine and good, but you can’t beat the importance of a college education, and some young players fully recognize that and make it as plain as day that they have no intention signing out of high school. Some college commitments are historically more difficult to break than others, with Stanford recruits typically being the most likely to attend school. Strong academic institutions such as Rice, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and North Carolina also seem to draw more than their fair share of notable recruits away from the incredibly appealing opportunity of playing professional baseball.
Sonny Gray’s commitment to Vanderbilt may be tough to pry him from, but not necessarily for that alone. He was already under some scrutiny given his sub-six foot frame, despite his absolutely electric right arm, and it was recently determined that he will likely miss the remainder of his high school season due to a injured ankle. In reference to Alvarez and how his draft status really has not been effected by his broken hamate bone, a bum ankle may not effect most draft prospects as much as it could possibly hurt Gray given all of the other parameters that come into play.
Casey Kelly could be another interesting case in that he’s one of the top quarterback recruits in the nation, having committed to play football for Tennessee, a school that has had a pretty good track record developing good, young QBs. Kelly’s father is former big-leaguer Pat Kelly, so there might be some hope that he would take to baseball if he’s drafted early enough.
NFL fans watched Chris Long, son of Hall of Famer and TV personality Howie Long, go second overall in the NFL draft last weekend to the St. Louis Rams. MLB fans could be watching another one of Howie’s sons go early in the draft, if a team is willing to take him high enough to steer him away from Florida State that is. While every situation is different, I’m not under the impression that Kyle Long is looking to begin his professional career so he can cash in on a big payday. In fact, I get the vibe that he may be more inclined to go to college where he can perform as an exciting two-way threat as both a left-handed slugger and over-powering left-handed starter.
I only bring these three players up because they do have unique situations and college commitments. Who ends up signing and who doesn’t end up signing is something that isn’t easily determined on paper.
Quick Take: Prep Arms
The closer it gets to draft day, the more obvious it seems as though there isn’t a clear-cut, bona fide top pitching prospect from the high school ranks, but there does appear to be some promising depth of players that could be selected from the middle of the first round through the second or third.
Tim Melville and Gerrit Cole entered the new year as the two top arms, and while Cole seems to be clouded by some issues that relate to everything but his electric stuff, Melville is starting to heat up as the upper Midwest starts to slowly but surely creep towards the 60 degree plateau more consistently. Neither one is without their warts, not that there is ever such thing as a perfect pitching prospect, but this year’s class is missing the Rick Porcello, Clayton Kershaw and Homer Bailey we have seen go very early in the draft in recent years.
If a team believes in Sonny Gray’s stuff and character enough, he should go in the middle of the first round based on talent, and following him could be a wealth of talent that includes righties such as Bubba Meyer, Daniel Webb, Daniel Marrs, Michael Palazzone, Taylor Jungmann, Trey Haley, Jake Odorizzi and Quinton Miller along with lefties Kyle Lobstein, Brett DeVall, Jarret Martin, Brett Mooneyham, Nick Maronde and Robbie Ross.
So teams will be put to the task to look into that crystal ball to project which of these players may emerge to become the next Phil Hughes, Clay Buchholz or Yovani Gallardo, players that were very well known in high school and still early picks, but players whose games progressed more rapidly than anyone expected.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.