Believe it or not, the June Amateur Free Agent Draft is less than two months away. It’s time to look at some storylines that are taking shape.
Royals narrowing down their list
Published reports opening the spring season had the Royals targeting four college pitchers: North Carolina’s Andrew Miller and Daniel Bard, Missouri’s Max Scherzer and Southern California’s Ian Kennedy. Miller is the only one the remains in contention for the first overall selection, as Bard as been wildly inconsistent, Kennedy hasn’t come close to showing the form he did during his first two years in college, and Scherzer has been set back by injury.
Miller entered the 2006 scouting season as most teams’ number one prospect, and he has turned himself from a raw hurler into a savvy ace. While he can still reach back and dial his fastball up to the mid-to-upper 90s, he is pitching much more effectively pitching more around 90 mph with improved control changing speeds with a sinker and a cutter. Many may consider the talent level available for this year’s draft to be rather lackluster, but Miller is a special talent no matter what the year.
Joining Miller on the Royals’ follow list is Tim Lincecum, who was covered in this column last week. Lincecum has plenty of doubters, to a certain degree including yours truly, because of his unorthodox delivery and smallish stature. However, you can’t argue with his results, or the radar readings, as Lincecum is clocked regularly in the mid-90s deep into ballgames. And given their interest as shown by the pack of Royals scouts and front office executives attending Lincecum’s last four or five starts, they aren’t just using Lincecum as a negotiating tactic hoping to drive Miller’s price down.
Make a note that the teams picking first overall in years considered to have mediocre talent available (the Padres and Pirates in 2004 and 2002 respectively) have selected players that weren’t universally thought to be the top overall players available. Meaning, don’t be surprised if the Royals choose whoever between Miller and Lincecum is willing to sign for less.
Pitching still rules
No batter from either the college or high school crop has stepped up to cement their standing as a legitimate top five overall selection. While a few pitchers have lost their standing at the top (Bard, Kennedy and Scherzer as noted above), several pitchers that entered the season coming off of strong summer campaigns have cemented their status as early first-round picks. Houston’s Brad Lincoln, California’s Brandon Morrow and the aforementioned Lincecum are the most notable of such pitchers. We may see 20-25 pitchers selected in the first round, and don’t be surprised if the top five to 10 picks are dominated by pitchers, particularly from the college level.
However, don’t rule out the prep pitchers. The Woodlands’ (TX) Kyle Drabek has done nothing to hurt his status as one of the top prep players, while fellow Texas ace Clayton Kershaw (Highland Park HS) may give Drabek a run for his money as to who becomes the first prep pitcher selected. Jeremy Jeffress (Halifax County HS, VA), Brett Anderson (Stillwater HS, OK), Colton Willems (Carroll Catholic HS, FL), Dellin Betances (Grand Street HS, NY), Chris Tillman (Fountain Valley HS, CA), Jordan Walden (Mansfield HS, TX), Matt Latos (Coconut Creek HS, FL) and Kasey Kiker (Russell County HS, AL) will make things interesting in round one.
Prep shortstops plus one
I’ve already wrote a column dedicated to the prep shortstops, but there is one more to note, and another from that original story with helium to spare.
I’ll start with Winter Park High School’s (FL) Stephen King. I noted in that previous column that King’s size and athleticism excites scouts about his future potential, and his performance this spring may have vaulted him into the first round. Since the draft is relatively devoid of good hitters, a team may choose to reach even a little further for King knowing the pickin’s are slim.
Monsignor Pace’s (FL) Adrian Cardenas is the one not listed in the previous column, and who, teamed with top prospect and fellow infielder Chris Marrero, is putting up big power numbers this spring. Cardenas typically isn’t considered a first-round pick like King is, but his big year at the plate has put his name in the running as a second or third round pick.
I still contend that the depth of the high school shortstops is as good as it has been in years, we have just been spoiled by the talented Upton brothers the past several years.
Don’t forget about Hochevar
Luke Hochevar was supposed to be picked within the first five to 10 overall picks last June based on his talent, not to mention being named the Clemens Award winner as college baseball’s best pitcher. He slid to the 32nd overall pick in the supplemental first-round due to lofty bonus aspirations, and after the Dodgers seemed confident in their ability to sign him, the negotiations got nasty, and downright weird after Hochevar reportedly came to an agreement with the Dodgers with a different agent (Matt Sosnick). That signing never happened, and Hochevar decided not to switch from his previous affiliation with Scott Boras.
While the Dodgers still retain the right to sign Hochevar since he did not return to school, it seems unlikely that they will end up signing him since those negotiations took a turn for the worst and appear to be irreparable. He now has signed on to pitch for the Fort Worth Cats in the American Association, an Independent League. Hochevar is expected to make five to six starts between now and the draft, and with a strong showing his name is a wild card to make a seemingly mediocre draft pool a little bit better.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.