With the American League already covered, it’s time to turn my attention to the Senior Circuit.
Teams are listed according to their projected finish within their division.
NL East
14 division titles and counting. That’s what the Braves have going for them, although the first three of those titles came when the Braves still were in the National League West. Despite that run, the Marlins still have two World Series titles during this time, making the playoffs as a Wild Card in both 1997 and 2003, while the Mets have a World Series appearance of their own as a Wild Card. In other words, led by the Braves, the NL East has been one of the more successful divisions in all of baseball since realignment.
Atlanta Braves
Don’t bet against the Braves making it 15 years in a row, despite the Mets big-name acquisitions. Losing pitching coach Leo Mazzone may be the biggest blow, as the Braves have always relied on consistency from their coaches, scouting and player development staffs. The offense is still led by Chipper and Andruw Jones, while young studs in the making Jeff Franceour and Brian McCann seem to be poised to represent the next wave of Braves stars. Edgar Renteria was acquired to replace departed free agent Rafael Furcal, although the Braves still need to replace Furcal’s leadoff skills. Pitching will still be the difference in Atlanta, with John Smoltz and Tim Hudson leading the way.
New York Mets
Another offseason, another pricey spending binge for the Mets. Conversely to the Braves’ success, until the Mets prove that their free spending was well made, it’s hard for me to take the Mets seriously despite having one of the better teams on paper. Carlos Delgado fills a huge hole at first base, Billy Wagner does the same at closer, and Paul Lo Duca replaces the aging Mike Piazza. Carlos Beltran’s production last year was disappointing, so if he returns to form the offense should be scary with an interesting mix of proven vets (Delgado, Lo Duca, Beltran, Cliff Floyd) and rising stars (Jose Reyes and David Wright). Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine are aging but still productive at the top of their starting five.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies from top to bottom are a good but not great team. Their lineup is solid, with an emerging and potent right side of the infield in Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Jimmy Rollins, David Bell, Pat Burrell, Mike Lieberthal, Bobby Abreu and newly acquired Aaron Rowand round out a solid lineup from one to eight. The fate of the Phillies season will come from how the pitching staff shakes out. Will Gavin Floyd and Ricardo Rodriguez set up and assume spots in the starting five? Will Randy Wolf be healthy enough to show the form he displayed in 2000, 2002 and 2003? Will Brett Myers continue to grow as a pitcher, and what can be expected from Jon Lieber? Finally, Tom Gordon has the toughest task replacing Billy Wagner as the team’s closer. If things go the Phillies way, they could turn a few heads this year, otherwise they will continue their recent pace as a good but not great team.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals were in the playoff race at the All-Star break before their success in close games during the first-half of the season started to catch up with them. Livan Hernandez is one of the most durable and underrated pitchers in the game, and he once again will be called upon to serve as the team’s staff ace. They are just as strong at the back end of the pitching staff, where Chad Cordero is one of baseball’s most exciting young closers. The lineup is solid but lacks that true lethal bat that opposing teams avoid at all costs. Alfonso Soriano isn’t making things any easier for the Nationals this spring by playing the outfield reluctantly with Jose Vidro healthy and poised to reclaim his spot at second base. Ryan Zimmerman could establish himself as the team’s best hitter and defender in his first full season.
Florida Marlins
I have noted in a previous column that the Marlins may have a tough season this year, but I don’t believe they will be as bad as many are predicting them to be. They still have one of the best young starting pitchers in the game in Dontrelle Willis as well as one of the best young sluggers in the game in Miguel Cabrera, who is moving back to third base this season. Jeremy Hermida could offer Cabrera the protection he needs in the lineup in just his first full season, while Jason Vargas will offer similar protection for Willis in the rotation. The Marlins moved all of their pricey veteran players this offseason in a cost-slashing youth movement not unlike the fire sale they conducted after the ’97 season. While they are going to have some growing pains, that youth isn’t that far away from contributing at a high level.
NL Central
This division seemed a lot stronger just a couple of short years ago when the Cardinals, Astros and Cubs were all beating up on each other. The Cardinals are still very strong, possibly the best and most complete team in baseball, but the Astros will be hard-pressed to replicate their success from last season in which they faced the White Sox in the World Series. The Cubs were good enough for one year in 2003 to tease their fans enough to make them feel like winners again, while their neighbors to the north, the Milwaukee Brewers, could be poised to be the team to beat in this division in the not so distant future for years to come. The Pirates have solid pitching, but questionable bats, while the Reds are built in the exact opposite fashion.
St. Louis Cardinals
With Albert Pujols alone, the best hitter in the game, the Cardinals are still going to be a force. Flank him with Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen and you have one of the best three-four-five hitters in the game. The Cardinals did get weaker in the outfield by losing both Reggie Sanders and Larry Walker, replacing them with Larry Bigbie and Juan Encarnacion, a noticeable falloff in production. The same goes for second base when Mark Grudzielanek changed Missouri addresses. The bullpen on the other hand got much better with the acquisitions of Braden Looper and Ricardo Rincon, who will make it extremely tough for opposing teams to score in the late innings leading up to Jason Isringhausen. Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan and a collection of young, promising arms from Adam Wainwright to Anthony Reyes will make the starting rotation just as strong as it’s been.
Milwaukee Brewers
It’s hard to call the Brewers a sleeper team when every other person is doing so. The Brew Crew definitely opened some eyes last year, avoiding a losing season for the first time in 12 years. Pitching coach Mike Maddux is turning into the Brewers’ version of Leo Mazzone, taking a few cast-offs in Doug Davis, Tomo Ohka and Chris Capuano and building an impressive staff around ace Ben Sheets. The lineup offers an interesting mix of veterans and rising youth, and if some of those young players start to click early in their careers, they could create a lineup with very few easy outs. Derrick Turnbow was GM Doug Melvin’s latest and greatest reclamation project, and if another player or two can emerge in 2006 they may just push themselves into Wild Card contention.
Houston Astros
I have always enjoyed the Astros pitching staff, which led me to pick them to take this division a year ago. They may not have accomplished that, but Clemens, Pettitte and Oswalt pitched the Astros to the World Series a year ago. With Clemens’ future uncertain, the Astros chances this season are equally uncertain. No longer can they simply out-score opponents. Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell have handed the torch over to Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg. Chris Burke, Jason Lane, Willy Taveras and Adam Everett offer a few more promising young players from which the team can build, and like the Oakland Athletics in the American League, the Astros are always good for a strong second half surge.
Chicago Cubs
Mark Prior is the most recent Cub starting pitcher on the mend, as his sore shoulder leaves him questionable for the 2006 season. Victor Zambrano has been the staff ace the past few years with Prior and Kerry Wood taking turns on the disabled list, and there is no reason to think that won’t continue with Dusty Baker still running the show. The Cubs will get better at the top of their order with the acquisition of Juan Pierre, a proven and dynamic leadoff hitter. Their top hitter, Derrek Lee, also has some shoulder pain, whose health is critical for the success of the Cubs’ offense. Aramis Ramirez, Matt Murton, Jacque Jones and Todd Walker will add some stability to the lineup, but this is a team that is relying on the tenuous health of a few of their biggest stars.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Like the Brewers, the Pirates appear to be heading in the right direction. Jason Bay is poised to be a star for years to come in the Steel City, and there will be a few more proven bats around him this year in Jeromy Burnitz, Sean Casey and Joe Randa. Young pitching, particularly southpaws, is the strength of the Pirates organization. Oliver Perez looks to re-establish himself as one of the league’s best young pitchers, with Zach Duke and Paul Maholm looking for some attention of their own. With their pitching depth, the Pirates have also been able to assemble an effective, no-name bullpen in recent years, and they also own the fourth overall pick in June from which they can continue to build.
Cincinnati Reds
I could see how bad the acquisition of Eric Milton was a year ago, and at Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark he gave up dingers at a predictably astonishing rate. Recently acquired Bronson Arroyo should prove to be a better fit. If Ken Griffey Jr. and Austin Kearns manage to stay healthy, the Reds will continue to score runs with Adam Dunn and Felipe Lopez in the lineup. While they have a few interesting young flamethrowers such as Brandon Claussen, Mike Gosling and Ryan Wagner, the Reds are going to have to out-score opponents this season given the instability of their entire pitching staff.
NL West
As noted in the AL preview, the NL and AL West are truly up for grabs. It’s amazing how one player could be the key to the entire division, as Barry Bonds’ health and the controversy that surrounds him could very well be the difference between the Giants finishing first and fourth in this division. The Dodgers have vastly improved their team, most notably their depth, while the Padres didn’t stand pat after finishing first in this division a year ago. The D-Backs need more pitching to complement a promising young lineup, while the Rockies are one of the worst teams in all of baseball.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Out goes Milton Bradley, in comes Nomar Garciaparra, Bill Mueller, Rafael Furcal, Kenny Lofton, Brett Tomko and Jae Seo. If J.D. Drew can stay healthy, which is a big if, the Dodgers are going to score some runs this year. Jeff Kent still has some gas left in the tank, and is still one of the better hitters in the league. More impressive than the names the Dodgers have is the depth that they have accumulated, not to mention the wealth of young talent rising up the system. The Dodgers always have good pitching, with partial thanks deserving to their spacious home stadium. Odalis Perez needs to bounce back, while Lance Carter and Danys Baez will give the bullpen more stability with the uncertain health status of closer Eric Gagne.
San Diego Padres
After winning the NL West last year with a 82-80 record, the Padres had somewhat of a facelift in the offseason. Ramon Hernandez left via free agency, with Mike Piazza and Doug Mirabelli taking his place behind the dish. Mike Cameron was acquired to patrol the vast centerfield of PETCO Park, and Brian Giles, their best hitter, was retained. Also retained was Trevor Hoffman, arguably the most reliable closer over the last 10 years. There are some questions that surround first, second and third base despite the presence of Ryan Klesko, Mark Bellhorn and Vinny Castilla, not to mention some pitching depth questions behind staff ace Jake Peavy. The Padres should be a good team, but not as good as the Dodgers.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks of 2006 may mirror the Texas Rangers in the AL West, as a team that scores runs in bunches but has trouble keeping runs off the board. And no team has the amount of young positional talent coming up the minor leagues as the D-Backs have. Conor Jackson will begin that youth movement at first base, while Luis Gonzalez, Shawn Green and Craig Counsell will add the veteran leadership. Brandon Webb’s sinker is tailor-made for Chase Field, and will allow the Diamondbacks to remain competitive in a relatively weak division.
San Francisco Giants
Barry Bonds will ultimately decide just how successful the Giants will be this year. With so much controversy surrounding him, not to mention a bum knee that has virtually no cartilage left, Bonds’ playing certainly will be limited as he chases the all-time home run mark. Moises Alou, Steve Finley and Randy Winn form a respectable outfield in Bonds’ absence, and the infield is led by Omar Vizquel at shortstop and Mike Matheny behind the plate. Jason Schmidt when healthy is one of the league’s best pitchers, Noah Lowry and Matt Morris are very capable second and third starters, while young hurler Matt Cain could be Schmidt’s heir apparent.
Colorado Rockies
Similar to Royals fans, it’s going to be a long season for the Colorado Rockies and their fans despite finishing the 2005 season strong. Outside of Todd Helton, the team is sorely lacking in talent, although there is a wave of talent that should arrive within the next year or two. Jeff Francis continued to show his promise despite posting an ERA of 5.68. Unlike the Royals, the Rockies were wise not to make too many nitpicky moves to this ballclub, not sacrificing talent or resources knowing the organization’s hopes lie in the future and not the present. They have two things going for them this season: Having the second overall pick in June and playing in arguably the weakest division.
NL MVP-Albert Pujols, Cardinals
I admit this isn’t a very fun or creative pick, but Barry Bonds has passed the torch of being the more fearsome hitter in the game to Pujols, and if he stays healthy and matches the productivity he has posted the past several years, he will once again be the favorite to win this award. If the Cardinals make the playoffs and advance, that will only work in his favor.
NL Cy Young-Jake Peavy, Padres
Peavy is coming off of back-to-back impressive seasons, and this is the year he is rewarded for those efforts, truly establishing himself as one of the best young guns in all of baseball. The only thing holding him back is run support if he doesn’t have enough “W’s” in the eyes of the voters.
NL Rookie of the Year-Prince Fielder, Brewers
If Fielder gets enough at-bats, he could approach 30 home runs this season. Brewers’ manager Ned Yost showed his patience with young players a year ago by sticking with J.J. Hardy in the first half of the season despite a painfully slow start. Hardy rewarded Yost’s patience with a very strong second half, and so will Fielder. Ryan Zimmerman will hit a plenty for the Nationals, but not for the prodigious power that Fielder will display. Conor Jackson of the Diamondbacks is also poised to hit a ton as the starting first baseman for the D-Backs.
NL Manager of the Year-Willlie Randolph, Mets
The Mets should make the playoffs given their extensive list of household names on their roster, but since they have struggled in recent years, manager Willie Randolph will receive all of the credit in the world should the Mets make the playoffs. Oh yeah, it doesn’t hurt that he’s in the enormous spotlight of New York City.
NL Wild Card-New York Mets
I usually am skeptical of teams that throw a lot of money at problems, but the Mets solved their biggest problems with some very good players, and they have a nice mix of young talent and veteran stars.
NL Pennant- St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals won’t be as strong offensively, but their bullpen is much improved, and Albert Pujols is lethal enough to carry the Cardinals on his back all season long. If Scott Rolen stays healthy and Jim Edmonds stays the course, they still will score plenty of runs.
World Series-Cardinals over Athletics
It took a few years longer than what they hoped for, but the Cardinals finally become World Series Champions with Tony La Russa holding bragging rights over his former employer.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.