The Kansas City Royals will have the dubious honor of selecting first overall in next year's amateur free agent draft. Picking first is the only good thing you can take from being the worst team in all of baseball. Keep in mind, teams no longer alternate between leagues as the order is established solely on the reverse order of the final standings.
Of course picking first and taking the most talented player are two separate issues. When you pick first you need to make sure you take the best player in an attempt to improve your team so that you don't have to worry about picking first overall again for a long, long time. Whether or not the Royals will actually take the best player available remains to be seen.
The Royals have already claimed that they are committed to taking the best available player, with a preference for a college arm. At this point in time that would likely lead them to the University of North Carolina's southpaw Andrew Miller. Miller's name is a familiar one, as he attended several Perfect Game events and was considered a high first-round pick coming out of high school in 2003. Lofty bonus aspirations caused him to fall to the third round, and he honored his commitment to UNC. He has been one of the top prospects for the 2006 draft the day he stepped on North Carolina's campus. Because of that, his asking price may be high. The same could be said of other college pitchers such as Miller's teammate Daniel Bard, Missouri's Max Scherzer and USC's Ian Kennedy.
In 2002 the Pirates owned the top overall selection, and narrowed their search late in the spring down to three players: B.J. Upton, Bryan Bullington and Adam Loewen. They offered all three players a four million dollar bonus, certainly generous money but not necessarily enough to sign such a player. All three refused to agree to a pre-draft deal for that kind of money, so the Pirates ended up taking Bullington, a college arm, likely knowing that he had the least amount of negotiating leverage as a college junior. While Bullington took several months to sign, the tactic worked, as the Ball State righty signed for the Pirates original offer of $4 million dollars. Upton went second overall to the Devil Rays and signed for $4.6 million while Loewen signed during the spring of 2003 as a draft and follow candidate of the Orioles to a contract worth just over $4 million.
In 2004 the Padres owned the first overall pick, and targeted the three players universally discussed as the top overall players: Jered Weaver, Stephen Drew and Jeff Niemann. Unfortunately for the Padres, ownership stepped in late and dictated the team spend roughly $3 million dollars for the first overall pick, which led to their selection of local talent Matt Bush. Bush certainly was one of the top prospects available for the draft, and showcased his skills at numerous Perfect Game events and the inaugural Aflac All-American Classic, but he wasn't the top player in the nation. Of course an ugly off-the-field incident has marred Bush' reputation, which only made the pick look worse.
In 2001, 2003 and 2005, the teams that owned the first overall pick can honestly say they took whom they felt was the best overall player. In 2001 it was the Twins taking Joe Mauer, and while Mark Prior was considered a better prospect, the Twins ended up signing Mauer to a record signing bonus of more than $5 million dollars, so you can't blame them for being cheap. The Devil Rays took Delmon Young in 2003 while the Diamondbacks selected Justin Upton (who remains unsigned) this past year.
Back to the Royals, they were rumored to be thinking about pursuing a more cost effective option with the second overall pick this past June, but proved those rumors to be untrue by selecting Alex Gordon and eventually signing him to a $4 million dollar bonus. In 2004 they did sign Billy Butler, who was considered a stretch for the 14th overall selection, for less than slot value, but that had to do with the fact that the Royals had three first-round picks and two second-round picks and were facing some additional, sizable signing bonuses. The same was true in 2003, when Chris Lubanski signed for less than slot value as the fifth-overall pick since the Royals had an extra first-round pick to contend with. Before 2003, Zack Grienke (2002), Colt Griffin (2001) and Mike Stodolka (2000) all signed for approximately slot value.
Basically, there's nothing wrong about reaching for a player to save some money, but make sure you take the right player. The Royals did just that when they took Butler in 2004 and Lubanski in 2003, both of whom appear to have a bright future ahead of them. The same can't be true for the Pirates in 2002, who have to be pining for B.J. Upton given their need for an impact bat past Jason Bay to go along with their otherwise strong pitching staff. The Royals don't have any major, impending free agents, so they likely don't have to worry about compensation picks, but it remains to be seen if they are going to be willing to bite the bullet that comes along with the dubious honor of picking first overall by taking the best player available.
Other 2006 draft notes:
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays will draft within the top 10 picks (third overall) for the eighth consecutive year. In that time, they have had the first overall pick twice (1999, 2003), the second overall pick (2002), the third overall pick (2001) and the fourth overall pick (2004). Given all of the talent they have been able to accumulate, and they certainly have not been afraid of larger signing bonuses, the Devil Rays need to turn that talent into wins on the field. With a front office in disarray, that may take a few more years to accomplish.
The second longest streak of teams picking within the top 10 overall selections is owned by both the Colorado Rockies, who will pick second overall next year, and the Detroit Tigers, who have the sixth slot. Both teams have been drafting in the top 10 since 2002. The second overall slot represents the highest position the Rockies have ever held.
With the Brewers snapping their streak of consecutive losing seasons with a 81-81 season, the Pirates will enter the 2006 season with 13 consecutive losing seasons, the longest such streak in baseball. That will garner them the fourth overall pick as their reward. In the 12 drafts starting in 1994 (their success in 1992 effected the 1993 draft), they have had the first overall pick twice (1996 and 2002) with their favorite placement being the eighth overall slot, a position they have held four times. As noted above, with a strong pitching staff and Bryan Bullington on the shelf due to injury, I'm sure they wish they had B.J. Upton right now with hopes to end their losing streak.
The team to fall the furthest from the 2005 draft to next year's draft is the Los Angeles Dodgers. The fifth best team during the 2004 season based on their record, the Dodgers were the seventh worse team in 2005, a difference of 19 draft slots. The Dodgers haven't drafted this high since 1993 when they had the second overall pick (don't remind Dodger fans about Darren Dreifort).
The team to rise the most from the 2005 draft to the 2006 draft, surprise surprise, is the Chicago White Sox, moving up 14 draft slots. The Brewers, Indians and Nationals all move up 11 spots.
Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.