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College  | Story | 3/18/2010

UCLA, Vandy Highlight Flaws In Pre-Season Polls

Allan Simpson
When Vanderbilt met UCLA in Los Angeles on Feb. 26, on the second weekend of the 2010 college baseball season, it wasn’t a game that attracted much national attention because both schools were largely overlooked in the pre-season polls.

But to keen observers of the college game, it was an intriguing matchup because it involved two clubs that underachieved in 2009, losing 56 games between them, and yet possessed a wealth of young talent and were primed for breakthrough seasons in 2010.

Moreover, the game featured a prime-time pitching showdown between two of the top arms in the 2011 draft class, UCLA righthander Gerrit Cole and Vanderbilt righty Sonny Gray, who coincidentally played alongside each other on USA Baseball’s college national team last summer, adding another twist.

Though UCLA won convincingly, 9-2, and Cole easily outpitched Gray, the game remained significant through the fourth weekend of the college season as it represented the only loss between the two schools. UCLA was 13-0, Vanderbilt 14-1.

It seems curious, in hindsight especially, that both schools gained little or no support in the many and varied minutia of pre-season polls that now populate the college baseball landscape, particularly considering the Bruins and Commodores are deep in talent and should have a profound impact on both the 2010 and 2011 drafts, to say nothing of a potential run at Omaha.

Not only are Cole and Gray expected to be first-round selections a year from now, but so are righthander Trevor Bauer, Cole’s running mate in the UCLA rotation, and righthander Jack Armstrong, Gray’s sidekick at Vandy. And there’s plenty of pitching depth behind them on both staffs.

Possibly only Texas, the consensus No. 1 team to start the 2010 season, possesses that kind of star power on its pitching staff, and yet UCLA and Vanderbilt earned none of the pre-season respect that the Longhorns did. It’s become apparent that too many polls didn’t look below the surface at the real talent on both clubs, and instead dwelled on their mediocre 2009 records.

Both coaches, UCLA’s John Savage and Vanderbilt’s Tim Corbin, expressed mild surprise and even disappointment that their teams weren’t given their due, particularly after they got off to somewhat-predictable hot starts. Neither made a point of dwelling on the apparent snub, though.

“It’s not a problem,” said Corbin, whose Vanderbilt club was ranked No. 1 nationally 13 times in a 15-week stretch in 2007. “I know how the process works. A lot depends on who’s coming back and who performed well the previous year, things that are pretty obvious.

“In years past, I would use any perceived slight as motivation to give our club a lift, but I’m really not into gimmicks like that anymore.”

Savage, whose 2008 club was ranked No. 1 in one misguided pre-season poll only to limp home with an underachieving 33-27 record, also downplayed the significance.
“We understand the process, that it’s based on the previous year to a degree, and you have to prove yourself every year,” he said. “We had solid years in 2006, 2007 and 2008, but slipped up a bit last year when there were some expectations that might have been a little too high. I’m sure that played a part this year.”

A year ago at this time, a young UCLA team was just digging out from a disastrous 10-game losing streak, stemming mostly from an overly-ambitious, early-season road schedule. And while the Bruins rallied to tie for third in the traditionally-strong Pacific-10 Conference, they never climbed out of their early hole and finished two games under .500 for the season at 27-29. It was the most losses for UCLA since Savage’s first year at the school in 2005.

Vanderbilt achieved a little more success in 2009, finishing second in both the Southeastern Conference tournament and an NCAA regional, but assembled an unimpressive 37-27 record overall and suffered the most losses since Corbin’s first year at the school in 2003. It was also a significant departure from a school-record 54 wins in 2007.
Based mostly on a perceived lack of success a year ago, neither school apparently warranted more consideration this season in the pre-season polls. But from a true talent standpoint, it was readily apparent that both UCLA and Vanderbilt deserved a lot more consideration than they were given.

Both schools shared a lot in common in 2009. They were burdened by the growing pains inherent in a young, evolving roster – no matter how talented. Several newcomers dotted the everyday lineups and pitching staffs of both teams, and injuries played a factor, particularly for UCLA.

Youth is still being served on both clubs this year, but there can be no denying the talent.

“A lot of our younger guys are going through this for the first or second time, so it’s tough to determine yet just how good we really are,” Corbin said. “With every win, it gives us a little more confidence, and confidence is so important for 18-, 19- and 20-year-olds. We really didn’t know what to expect from our club for sure this season, but we’ve shown enough ability to know that we can win.

“We can’t afford to look too far ahead, though, and wonder how good we really might be, so for now we’re just taking this one win at a time.”

It seems rather obvious, though, that both UCLA and Vanderbilt were undervalued, based on their strong starts.

“It’s been a complete turnaround for us, in all phases,” Savage said. “I thought our team would be good this year, but we needed to show we were good. We’ve finally got guys in positions they should be playing. With more depth, we’ve had better, more versatile lineup combinations. We’ve been more offensive with more stolen bases and a better on-base percentage, so we’ve put a lot more pressure on defenses.”

As a team, UCLA is hitting .355, compared to .285 a year ago. Yet as improved as the Bruins have been offensively, the team’s obvious and acknowledged strength is its pitching staff, led by Cole and Bauer.

Cole, who is an early favorite to be the No. 1 pick overall in the 2011 draft, has been overpowering in his four starts. He has routinely reached 98 mph and touched 99, and is 4-0, 2.10 with four walks, 41 strikeouts and a .136 opponent average in 26 innings. In one less start, Bauer (3-0, 2.38, 23 IP/13 H/6 BB/38 SO) has been nearly as dominating. As freshmen a year ago, Bauer went 9-3, 2.99 while Cole was just 4-8, 3.49.

For all the talent the two young righthanders possess, the difference-maker in the UCLA rotation this year may be junior lefthander Rob Rasmussen, who went 4-2, 6.45 while working in a variety of roles for the Bruins a year ago.

Rasmussen, though, enjoyed a breakout season (4-0, 1.80) last summer as a starter in the Cape Cod League and has continued to build off that performance this spring. In four starts, he is 1-0, 2.79 with 30 strikeouts in 19 innings. If Rasmussen keeps up that pace in his role as Sunday starter, he could edge his way close to the first round himself in this year’s draft. His fastball was clocked up to 94 mph last summer on the Cape.

Yet as dominant as UCLA’s starting pitching has been, Savage is just as quick to praise his bullpen. “It’s been every bit as much of a factor in our success so far as our starting pitching,” he said.

No UCLA relievers have stepped to the forefront more than 6-foot-3, 190-pound red-shirt sophomore righthanders Dan Klein, who sat out last season with a shoulder ailment, and Erik Goeddel, who red-shirted as a freshman in 2008 and worked just eight innings last season while still on the mend from Tommy John surgery that he underwent as a high-school senior.

Klein’s fastball has approached the mid-90s this spring. He has saved three games as UCLA’s designated closer, while walking two and striking out 14 in 11 scoreless innings. Goeddel, who was one of the premier arms in the 2007 prep class before his untimely injury, has gone 2-0, 2.70 in seven appearances, with 12 strikeouts in 10 innings. His fastball has been in the 92-93 mph range.

Through their first 13 games, UCLA pitchers have posted a 2.00 ERA, compared to 4.28 a year ago, but a greater reflection of the staff’s thorough dominance is a combined 35 walks, 173 strikeouts and a .188 opponent batting average in 117 innings.

“That looked like a Double-A staff that we faced, and there’s no doubt it will be one of the best we’ll face all year,” said Corbin, who has produced his share of first-round arms at Vanderbilt. “But UCLA has a good, all-around club. They paraded out a lot of really good position players, too.”

Corbin can point to many of the same attributes in his team, and factors in his team’s fast start. Vanderbilt has gotten similar breakthrough seasons from several of its position players, but the team’s obvious strength is a pitching staff, led by Gray (3-1, 2.96) and Armstrong (2-0, 3.72) that has posted a 2.57 ERA to date and averaged more than a strikeout an inning.

Junior righthander Taylor Hill (3-0, 2.05) has been an effective starter, sandwiched between Gray and Armstrong, while another junior righthander, Russell Brewer, has been automatic as a closer with five scoreless appearances. Brewer has two saves with no walks and 10 strikeouts in eight innings.

Based on their 2009 performances at Vanderbilt, there was little to suggest that Armstrong (0-0, 12.91), Hill (2-1, 5.05) or even Brewer (1-2, 2.96, 4 SV) would be key factors on this year’s club. But it shouldn’t have been overlooked that all three raised their profiles to another level by pitching brilliantly last summer in the Cape Cod League. Gray gained valuable exposure for Team USA as well, enabling him to elevate his game this spring.

“They’re all still learning how to pitch, to make the ball move a little more, to get a little more comfortable on the mound,” Corbin said, “but the experience they gained in summer ball has made them all better pitchers this spring.”

Most of Vanderbilt’s regulars have also benefitted greatly from a year of experience, particularly those who had strong performances in summer ball.

“With so many newcomers last year, the experience level of our players was an issue,” Corbin said. “But most of them went out and had success during the summer, came back and applied themselves in the fall, and they’re all that much farther ahead this spring for the experience. They’ve learned how to speed up the game, and also slow it down, and they’re able to play more under control now more comfortably.

“We’ve also seen big changes in the personality of some of our players. We’ve seen the true personality of Jason Esposito come out. He’s much more comfortable this year.”
Esposito, a seventh-round pick of the Kansas City Royals in the 2008 draft, hit an acceptable .287-4-42 as a freshman for the Commodores while finding his way in the field at third base. With a year of maturity, he’s become a force at the plate in the young 2010 season, hitting .381-3-17 and leading the team in RBIs. He’s quickly rounding into a top-notch defender, as well.

First baseman Curt Casali (.486-3-12), the team’s top hitter in the early going, and outfielder Aaron Westlake (.310-4-16), the top hitter a year ago (.377) and leading home-run threat this year, have also made noticeable improvements as juniors. Casali played with a bad elbow all of 2009, before undergoing surgery in June.

But perhaps no Vandy players have been more critical to the team’s early success than two fifth-year seniors, catcher Andrew Giobbi (.281-2-15) and shortstop Brian Harris (.378-1-10).

“They’ve been real stabilizers for us, at critical positions,” Corbin said. “Giobbi has taken charge behind the plate and been throwing out everybody. Harris doesn’t have that plus tool, but he’s a baseball player, a real gamer.”

Though UCLA’s position players are less experienced than Vanderbilt’s, every Bruins regular was hitting over .300 through 13 games. Several newcomers have gotten off to fast starts, notably Cody Keefer (.400-0-8) and Beau Amaral (.351-1-5), who have claimed regular jobs in the outfield as freshmen; and sophomore Dean Espy (.343-3-14), a junior-college transfer from Arizona, who has settled in at third. Junior Brett Krill (.362-1-10), a former top prep talent who played sparingly a year ago, had a strong fall and is finally realizing the potential in his strong power/speed package.

No Bruins position players, though, have shown greater improvement this spring than two sophomores, catcher Steve Rodriguez, who batted .179-2-10 as a freshman, and second baseman Tyler Rahmatulla, a .222-0-8 hitter as a freshman who actually backslid to a feeble .101 average during the summer in the Cape. Rodriguez is hitting .375-5-12 and leading UCLA in homers. Rahmatulla is the Bruins’ top hitter with a .420 average, all the while making the transition defensively from short to second.

“We may have expected a little too much out of both players as freshmen, and they were overmatched at the plate,” Savage conceded. “It’s taken them a year to get adjusted, and they’re both much more confident, stronger players this year.”

Cole is another Bruins sophomore, and his showdown against Gray provided the UCLA coaching staff, and scouts, with a first-hand glimpse of just how dominant he might be this season after he struggled to find consistency as a freshman. Cole carried the heavy burden of expectation a year ago after rejecting a first-round offer from the New York Yankees in the 2008 draft.

Gray might have been a first-rounder himself in that draft had he not made his intentions to attend college more clear than Cole apparently did. He lasted until the 27th round.
“Those were two big arms, two pretty complete pitchers,” Savage said. “If you wanted to see some serious heat, you got it – up to 98, 99, especially in Gerrit’s case. Along with the velocity, he’s thrown strikes more consistently this year, especially with his secondary stuff. He’s learned how to pitch out of trouble better, and become a more complete pitcher.”

Despite his team being handed its first loss of 2010, Corbin relished the opportunity to see two premium young arms go head-to-head.

“That was a lot of fun,” Corbin said. “It was a highly-touted, much-anticipated match-up between two top 2011 guys who knew each other from their experience with Team USA. Unfortunately, they jumped us and we didn’t get much chance to get back in the game as Cole is so powerful that he got himself out of any trouble with just his arm.”
Despite the early success of both their teams, Savage and Corbin know all too well that it’s a long season, that there will be obstacles to overcome along the way. The real test lies right ahead for Vanderbilt, which opens its Southeastern Conference schedule this weekend against Alabama. UCLA’s Pac-10 opener doesn’t come until April.
“We’re encouraged with our start, but we’ve still got 11 more weeks to go,” Corbin said. “Our conference season will give us a much better idea of where we stand. We look at it like you’re playing 18 holes of golf. You can’t let one or two holes, whether good or bad, dictate how you’ll play your round, and you’ve got to be careful not to think you’ll have a great season because of a good start.”
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