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College  | Story | 4/29/2022

Week 11 College Picks and Preview

Vincent Cervino
Craig Cozart
Photo: Gavin Cross (Virginia Tech Athletics)
Picks & Breakdowns

Matchup Vin's Picks Cozy's Picks
#5 Virginia Tech at #13 Virginia
#6 TCU at #20 Florida State
#10 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas
#23 Georgia at #22 LSU
UC Santa Barbara at Cal Poly
Davidson at St. Louis
Central Michigan at Ball State
Florida International at Florida Atlantic
 

No. 5 Virginia Tech at No. 13 Virginia

Cozy's Pick: Virginia Tech



It is quite amazing how closely these teams mirror each other. They both have one of the best and most well-rounded offenses in the country and are both batting .320 as a team, while stealing 53/52 bases, respectively. They both play elite defense, fill up the strike zone on the mound and allow their opponents exactly 7.2 free bags per game. The Hokies (28-9) are a hard-nosed club and play with a chip on their shoulder. They are 12-7 in the ACC, good for 2nd in the division and they are 3rd in the nation in both doubles (100) and home runs (80). Their pitching rotation has been consistent, and they have a solid bullpen where four different pitchers have logged saves. The Cavaliers (31-10) are grinders and play a blue collar version of baseball where they simply do not beat themselves. They are 13-8 in league play, 3rd in the division, and have an offense that is in the top-50 in the nation in doubles and home runs. They are hard to deal with up and down the lineup where they have an almost 1:1 K/BB and HBP ratio. They have the best pitching staff in conference play to go with elite defenders around the diamond. This will be as intense a weekend as you will see all season, but I think Virginia Tech hands UVA its first home series defeat of the season.

Vin’s Pick: Virginia

This is a tale of two opposite trending teams as the Hokies are red hot while the Hoos are on the opposite end after a fiery start to the season. The difference maker this series will be the pitching and the Cavaliers have the advantage there with starters Brian Gursky and Nate Savino. The offenses will be fun to watch go at it as Gavin Cross and Jake Gelof should be as fun a matchup as any this weekend but Virginia’s pitching depth gives them the edge at home. 


No. 6 Texas Christian at No. 20 Florida State

Cozy's Pick: TCU

In a rare treat this time of year, two traditional powers match up in a non-conference series that will have huge postseason implications in the eyes of the NCAA Selection Committee. Both teams carry quality RPIs and are definite NCAA Tournament teams but if they both finish hot, the winner of this series could have an edge when it comes to being a potential host site. TCU (27-14) has won 6 out of 10 and are 12-6 in the Big 12, which sees them sitting atop the league right now. Nothing jumps off the page for them statistically, they just do everything very well and understand how to win games. Their pitching has excelled in league play, they have power up and down the lineup, and have swiped 58 bags on the year. The Seminoles (24-15) have been anything but consistent this year and find themselves 11-10 in ACC play, good for 4th in the Atlantic Division. Their pitching staff, especially the rotation, continues to lead the way with their 3.5:1 K/BB ratio but their overall defensive performance is average. The offense can slug a bit with a slash line of .265/.428/.373 but are averaging less than 6 runs per game. It will be interesting to see how motivated these clubs are leaving conference play for the weekend. TCU has challenged themselves and played well on the road this year and I think they win 2-of-3 in Tallahassee.

Vin’s Pick: TCU

Florida State’s pitching staff has made headlines all year for the prowess of their starting rotation but TCU is hot after taking two of three from Oklahoma State. The Horned Frogs got a big boost in the arm last weekend with the return of Austin Krob and he could be a real x-factor to this matchup. The TCU bats will outlast the FSU pitching staff as the ‘Noles offense has gone quiet at times and TCU can steal a series on the road in Tallahassee. 


No. 10 Oklahoma State at No. 8 Texas

Cozy's Pick: Texas

The marquee series of the weekend for the Big 12 will be in Austin and it is a battle to gain ground on TCU who leads the league. The Cowboys (28-13) has played well on the road this year and are 2nd in the league with a 10-5 record. They are one of the elite defensive teams in the country fielding .983 and only allow opponents to bat .232 in league play. They do hit for power with 80 doubles and 46 home runs, pressuring teams with their 40 stolen bases as they score almost 7 runs per game. The Longhorns (31-13) on paper are one of the top-5 teams in the nation and seem to be surging right now as they have won 7-of-10. They are, however, sitting in 3rd place in the Big 12 with a 9-6 record so they need this series. Offensively, they are 3rd in the nation with 101 doubles and 5th in the nation with 78 home runs as they average over 8 runs per game. Remarkably, they have raised their team average to .329 in league play and they are playing stifling defense, fielding .984 and only allowing 5.9 free bags per game. This will be a physical and entertaining matchup, but I think the Longhorns are ready to make run and will take this series at home this weekend.

Vin’s Pick: Texas

The Longhorns have had an up-and-down middle of the year but seemed to have righted the ship after sweeping Baylor last weekend. Oklahoma State has been near the top of the rankings nearly all season but the Longhorns have a roster that is built for April and May. The options out of the bullpen and the depth of the offense will be a ton for the Cowboys to overcome and Friday night with Pete Hansen vs. Justin Campbell should be a very good one. 


No. 23 Georgia at No. 22 Louisiana State

Cozy's Pick: LSU

The Bulldogs (29-12) have played one of the best schedules in the nation and seem to have found a nice rhythm as a team. They are 11-7 in SEC play, sitting 2nd in the East. They are a club that plays station-to-station offensively, slashing .289/.443/.390 and average a little over 7 runs per game. They have had some crazy series this year and have won some huge ones. But their team ERA has bloated to a 7.18 in league play and they are giving up over 8.5 free bags per game. This leaves them with a razor thin margin for error. LSU (27 -13) has yet to win back-to-back conference series and are 10-8 in the SEC, good for 3rd place in the West. Like their opponent this weekend, they play for the big inning offensively as they have only swiped 12 bases on the year. They have accumulated 83 doubles and 67 home runs on the year and are 21-5 at home this year. They don’t field it all that well, but their pitching staff can punch out hitters in bunches, have a 3.55 team ERA and can eliminate scoring threats. The Tigers have some work to do if they want to host a Regional this year and this series will go a long way with UGA’s quality RPI. I think LSU takes care of business at home this weekend winning 2-of-3.

Vin’s Pick: Georgia

Baton Rouge is one of the toughest places to play in the country but this Georgia team is for real and will be led by the SEC Pitcher of the Year favorite Jonathan Cannon. They’ll need to piece together some bullpen innings against one of the SEC’s best offenses but look for big series’ from relievers Luke Wagner and Jaden Woods. 


UC Santa Barbara at Cal Poly

Cozy's Pick: UC Santa Barbara

The battle between the top two teams in the Big West Conference will go down in San Luis Obispo this weekend. The Gauchos (27-10) are one of the hottest teams in the nation and sit atop the league with a 16-2 record. Since hitting conference play, they have elevated their offensive performance where they are batting .302 and have already hit 32 doubles, 32 home runs and swiped 31 bases. The pitching staff has an in-league ERA of 3.63 and limit their opponents to a .222 OBA. The Mustangs (24-16) have been on a bit of a slide lately where they have lost 5 out of 10 but they are in 2nd place with an 11-4 record. They must play for the big inning offensively as they have only stolen 5 bases all year and their slash line is .277/.414/. 372. The pitching staff does fill up the zone, teams do hit almost .280 against them but they play clean with the glove and only surrender a little over 6 free bags per game. UCSB is just in a really good place right now and I think they win at least 2 out of 3 this weekend to extend their lead in the conference.

Vin’s Pick: UC Santa Barbara

The Gauchos and Stangs stand at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, in the conference standings for the Big West and they’ll match up in San Luis Obispo this weekend. Cal Poly gets the sexy headlines thanks to two top 100 draft prospects in Brooks Lee and Drew Thorpe but I think the Gauchos are better equipped to handle the series and a postseason run. Cory Lewis against Thorpe on Friday night should be a fun one but the Gauchos have a ton of depth on the mound that should make scoring a nightmare for Cal Poly. 


Davidson at St. Louis

Cozy's Pick: Davidson

The Atlantic 10 sees the top two teams in the league square off this weekend in St. Louis. Davidson (31-8) has quietly put together one of the best resumes in the nation and are 10-2 in conference play, good for 1st place. They have won 8 out of their last 10 games and have one of the more potent lineups around. They are batting .295 as a team with 98 doubles, 54 home runs, 45 stolen bases and they are averaging almost 9 runs per game in the A10. By the way, they have one of the best and most consistent three-man rotations on the mound with real pitchability and the ability to miss barrels with regularity. St. Louis (21-17) sits in 2nd place right now in the league with an 8-4 record. They have only won 5 of their past 10 but do play their best ball at home. They have seen a significant uptick in their overall offense since starting conference games and are hitting .300, with 17 stolen bases while averaging 7 runs per game inside the league. Pitching and defense has been a challenge allowing an OBA of .296 and fielding a pedestrian .966 surrendering over 8 free bags per game. Davidson is a complete, balanced club and I see them winning the series and potentially sweeping this weekend.

Vin’s Pick: Davidson

When you line up the numbers between the two leaders in the A-10, Davidson excels in both run prevention and scoring and should have the advantage even on the road at Saint Louis. Michael Carico is the likely Player of the Year favorite in the conference while Davidson has three relievers with a sub-3.00 ERA and a likely draft pick in Friday night ace Nolan DeVos. Davidson is the better team here and should take the series handily.


Central Michigan at Ball State

Cozy's Pick: Central Michigan

The struggle for supremacy in the MAC could largely be decided this weekend in Muncie as the Chippewas and the Cardinals. Central Michigan (28-10) is on a tear since beginning league play as they have won 18 in a row and sit 21-1 atop the conference standings. They are batting .328 in the MAC, with 53 doubles and an amazing 52 stolen bases while averaging almost 9 runs per game. They have almost cut their team ERA in half in league play with a 2.64 and limit their opponents to a .214 OBA. Ball State (25-14) is in 2nd place with a 19-4 record in league and have won 7 of their last 10 games. They have added almost 40 points to their team batting average in conference games with at .311 and are averaging a little over 8 runs per game. The defense has been solid at .974 but they do surrender over 8 free bags per game. They have also taken over a full point off their team ERA in MAC play. The Cardinals must have this series if they want to challenge for the regular season title, but I don’t see that happening this weekend. The Chippewas win the series 2-of-3.

Vin’s Pick: Ball State

The Chippewas haven’t lost since the end of March and currently have the nation’s longest win streak at eighteen games. They’ll head to Ball State for a four-game set in what should be their toughest competition in a month. The Chippewas have the star power in Andrew Taylor and Jakob Marsee but Ball State can pitch as Tyler Schweitzer has been very strong and Ty Johnson has the stuff to compete against anyone. This could definitely be a two-game split here but give me the home team to topple the nation’s longest win streak. 


Florida International at Florida Atlantic

Cozy's Pick: Florida Atlantic

This is a long-standing South Florida rivalry that a lot of people may not know features two programs that have had a lot of success on a national level. In fact, both teams have been to a Super Regional, FIU way back in 2001 and FAU the following year in 2002. Fast forward to the present and you see an FIU program that is trying to find its footing as they are 12-26 and 4-14 in Conference USA. They have lost 8 of their past 10 and are 2-10 on the road this year. It has been a struggle to score runs, batting .242 with only 44 doubles and 28 home runs while scoring less that 5 runs per game. Couple that with an 8.43 team ERA in league competition and the fact that they surrender almost 13 free bags per game and the chance to win is razor thin. FAU (26-16) has won 6 out of the past 10 and sits 4th in the league at 11-7. They play very well at home where they are 20-8 and are scoring 7 runs per game on average. Their recipe for success revolves around their ability to slug the baseball where they have accumulated 86 doubles and 59 home runs while batting .287 on the year. Things have trended in a good direction on the mound in league play with a lower team ERA and OBA in those games compared to their non-conference slate. This weekend is a must for the Panthers but I think the Owls win the series and stay within striking distance of the top of Conference USA.

Vin’s Pick: Florida Atlantic

The Owls let me down last week as they lose their series to Old Dominion but they’ll be at home against in-state rival FIU who has not had a very strong campaign. The Panthers stand at just 4-14 in conference and while Friday starter Patrick Pridgen gives them a shot the pitching staff won’t be able to compete with the Owls who has stars Gabriel Rincones and Nolan Schanuel to spearhead the offensive attack. 
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