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College  | Story | 4/22/2022

Week 10 College Picks and Preview

Vincent Cervino
Craig Cozart
Photo: Brad Cumbest (Mississippi State Athletics)
Picks & Breakdowns

Matchup Vin's Picks Cozy's Picks
#1 Tennessee at Florida
#4 Arkansas at Texas A&M
Mississippi State at Ole Miss
Arizona State at Arizona
East Carolina at Tulane
Florida Atlantic at Old Dominion
Wofford at Mercer
Maryland at Illinois
 



No. 1 Tennessee at Florida

Cozy's Pick: Tennessee

The Volunteers (34-3) are coming off a crazy week and for the first time all season scuffled a bit. However, they are still distinctly the best team in the country and have a five-game lead in the SEC-East at 14-1. They will be without their head coach until Sunday, but this team still has the most elite offense and pitching staff in college baseball. In league play, they average 10 runs per game, have only surrendered 18 walks on the mound and give up a minuscule 2.8 free bases per game. They are also undefeated on the road this year and seem to crush the will of their opponents. The Gators (23-14) have lost 9 of their past 15, are 8 games behind Tennessee in the East at 6-9. They have yet to win back-to-back series in the SEC and just haven’t put together a long stretch of quality ball. They have an astronomical 6.87 team ERA in the league and allow opponents a .285 OBA. They do have an explosive offense and are averaging two home runs per game with 31 and run the bases well, having swiped 10 bags in SEC play. This will be a fun series for fans, and Tennessee will grow their lead in the East with another series victory.

Vin’s Pick: Tennessee
 
The Volunteers endured their toughest week of the season last week but still haven’t dropped an SEC series all year as they head to Gainesville. Blade Tidwell is back, and didn’t throw in the midweek, which means he could be an effective multi-inning weapon while Florida announced that ace Hunter Barco would miss his start this week. It’s been a tough stretch for the Gators, who lost two of three to Vandy last weekend, as they have to try and fend off the No. 1 team in the country.

No. 4 Arkansas at Texas A&M

Cozy's Pick: Arkansas

The Razorbacks (30-7) have won 7 in a row and methodically built a 3-game lead in SEC West as they sit 11-4 in league play. They have done this on the strength of one of the most complete defensive units in the country. They have a quality and consistent weekend rotation and have performed even better in conference play than they have out of the league. They field a sparkling .987, only allow 5.4 free bases per game, hold opponents to a .226 OBA and carry a 3:1 K/BB ratio in the SEC. They also average over 8 runs per game of late. The Aggies (23-13) have played better baseball with every new week and find themselves at 8-7 in SEC play. They have won 7-of-10 and play very well in front of the home crowd with a 14-7 record at Blue Bell Park. They are solid on the mound with a 4.25 team ERA, don’t put opponents on base for free and have stifled the running game. They can slug it a bit with 34 home runs and have swiped 42 bags on the year. Arkansas is the more complete team overall but have not played well on the road (3-3), so we’ll see if this is a factor. My gut tells me the Razorbacks win the series and expand their lead in the West.

Vin’s Pick: Texas A&M
 
The Aggies have collected a solid resume of midweek wins while having won their last two SEC weekend series, including on the road at Georgia this past weekend. They are home to face an Arkansas team that has been one of the more consistent in the country. For the Aggies, the offense is deep while the pitching has been pretty consistent but they’ll need to capitalize on the maturity of their veterans to take the series.

Mississippi State at Ole Miss

Cozy's Pick: Mississippi State

At the beginning of the season, most people would have pointed to this weekend’s series in Oxford as a battle that could decide the SEC West championship. Shockingly, these preseason top-10 ranked programs are the worst two teams in their division and neither club is ranked. The Bulldogs (22-16) have battled injuries and inconsistency all year and sit 6-9 in the league. They have won 6 out of 10 but are 4-6 in true road competitions. They are an elite defensive club fielding .983, their pitching staff has come together nicely considering their massive losses and they do score over 7 runs per game on average. Ole Miss (21-15) is in the middle of one of the worst tailspins the program has seen in years, winning only 3 out of their last 10. They have yet to win a home game in SEC play and are only 5-10 in conference play. They are a well below-average defensive club and have a bloated 6.58 team ERA in league. They typically are hard to deal with at home on the offensive side and have hit for power in league with 25 doubles and 28 home runs. We keep waiting for both teams to snap out of their funk, but if the season were to end today both teams would miss the NCAA Tournament based on their RPIs of 81 and 58, respectively. This is really a coin flip but I’m going with State to win the weekend and keep some postseason hope alive.

Vin’s Pick: Ole Miss
 
Things have been not great for the Rebels as of late and while Mississippi State has had a tough season too, they’re coming off a series win against Alabama. I’m still a believer in the Ole Miss offense as guys like Tim Elko and Jacob Gonzalez will provide a baseline level of offensive support as the pitching staff works out its kinks.

Arizona State at Arizona

Cozy's Pick: Arizona

The Sun Devils (19-19) have had a difficult 2022 but are playing their best ball right now and have won 5 in a row. They are currently 6th in the Pac-12 with a 8-7 record. They average scoring almost 7 runs per game in league play and can slug it a bit with 35 doubles and they average a home run per game. However, flip to the pitching side of things and they get scary fast. The staff has an 8.18 team ERA in conference play, barely strike out more than they walk and average over 8 free bases surrendered per game. They simply leave themselves with very little margin for error. The Wildcats (26-12) are tied for 2nd in the Pac-12 but are coming off back-to-back series losses to Washington State and Utah while winning 5 out of their last 10. Their numbers stay pretty much the same in non-conference and conference play as they slash .286/.455/.381 and average almost 7 runs per game. As we know, this game revolves around what happens on the mound and Arizona has a significant advantage from that perspective. I think the Wildcats win at least 2-of-3 this series.

Vin’s Pick: Arizona
 
Arizona has been a very inconsistent team since conference play begun, sweeping Stanford and winning against Cal to start out before dropping consecutive series to Utah and Washington State. The offense hasn’t been as explosive as it was a year ago but they’ve still got likely first-rounder Daniel Susac to help buoy the bats. Look for Friday starter Garrett Irvin to rebound and for the Cats to get a big start from sophomore TJ Nichols.

East Carolina at Tulane

Cozy's Pick: East Carolina

In February and early March these teams were on completely different tracks, as ECU was off to its worst start in a decade and Tulane was pushing towards the Top 25. Since then, they have settled in with ECU (23-15) being one of the hottest teams in the country and Tulane (24-13-1) righting itself after a rough patch. The Pirates are in 1st place in the AAC with a 7-2 record and have won 8 of the last 10. Their numbers across the board have improved in conference play as they are hitting .323, averaging almost 8 runs per game and have an ERA of 3.83 so far. They continue to be one of the best and most consistent fielding teams in the nation. The Green Wave are a game behind ECU in league play at 6-3 and have won 6 out of 10. They also average close to 8 runs per game and are hitting over .300 in the conference but their pitching has struggled a bit. They carry a 5.24 ERA in the AAC and have less than a 2:1 K/BB ratio. The Pirates have come out of their early season swoon and seem to be a galvanized group right now. It’s tough to win in New Orleans but ECU is playing as well as anyone right now and I think they win the series and expand their lead in the standings.

Vin’s Pick: Tulane
 
This matchup is between two very talented teams in the American but who’ve played to mixed results all year. The advantage here comes in the home field and with offensive contributors as though the numbers aren’t great it looks like Bennett Lee and Chase Engelhard are starting to get hot. They’ll need a strong start from guys like Grant Siegel and Dylan Carmouche but the Green Wave have the talent to win this series.

Florida Atlantic at Old Dominion

Cozy's Pick: Old Dominion

Conference USA has been one of the most wild and unpredictable leagues in the nation this year. The Owls (24-14) are winners of 6 out of their last 10 games and are in 3rd place in the league at 10-5 so far. They have a nice blend of power/speed on the offensive side, and they have racked up 31 doubles and 28 home runs in 15 conference games. The pitching is trending in the right direction taking almost a full point off their team ERA in C-USA competition, but they do surrender on average 8 free bags per game. The Monarchs (26-9) have been rather inconsistent for their talent and are in 5th place with an 8-7 conference record. Their offense is prolific, especially at home, as they are hitting over .300 and have hit a mind blowing 45 home runs in just 15 league games. The problem is that they hold a team ERA of 7.17 in the league which is why their 9.5 runs per game has only produced a record of 1 game above .500 to this point. Both teams will put up runs in bunches this weekend, it could be a slugfest all three games. But I’m going with ODU to hold up on their home turf for the series win.

Vin’s Pick: Florida Atlantic
 
The Owls have some firepower to work with and they’ll have to put up runs in bunches to compete against the Monarchs and their explosive offense. The Owls pitching staff hasn’t been great but Hunter Cooley should be able to deliver a strong performance and look for huge weekends from Nolan Schanuel and Gabe Rincones for FAU as they and ODU will have themselves some slugfests.

Wofford at Mercer

Cozy's Pick: Mercer

This weekend’s matchup in Macon will probably be the best series across the nation. The winner will find themselves alone atop the SOCON standings and most likely in our Top 25 rankings for the first time this season. The Terriers (28-9) has been on our follow list for over a month, have won 9 out of 10 and are undefeated (6-0) in league play. They are arguably the most stressful offense for opponents to defend as they have swiped 112 bases on the year. They are averaging 8 runs per game in conference play with over 3 bags on average as well. They are also one of the tightest defenses in the nation and only surrender 3.6 free bases per game in league with over a 5:1 K/BB ratio. The Bears (31-6) are also winners of 9 of the past 10 and sit 6-0 in the SOCON. They carry an amazing 21-2 record at home and love the friendly confines of OrthoGeorgia Park. In league play they are slashing .338/.643/.449 and are scoring 10 runs per game. They also minimize their opponents’ scoring opportunities with a 3:1 K/BB ratio and only allowing 6 free bags per game. The key to this series may come down to the battle on the bases as Wofford is 3rd in the nation with 112 bags but Mercer has only allowed 15 stolen bases all year, 2 in conference play. I think the Bears are built for their park and their offensive power wins them at least 2-of-3.

Vin’s Pick: Wofford
 
Wofford is a perfect 6-0 in conference and that will almost certainly be put to the test against Mercer this weekend. In what is likely the premier matchup for the Southern Conference, everything has broke well for Wofford this season with strong performances from veterans on both sides of the ball. This will be a very very good matchup this weekend and one that truly could go either way.

Maryland at Illinois

Cozy's Pick: Illinois

Both teams are, somewhat surprisingly, chasing Rutgers for the top spot in the Big 10 conference standings. The Terrapins (30-7) have won 9 of their last 10 and sit 7-2 in conference play. They have been a solid club all year and have bounced in and out of the Top 25 a couple times. They regularly generate offense with a balanced lineup, good power/speed mix and are scoring almost 8 runs per game in league competition. Their arms are solid and have pitched at a 3.50 ERA, allowing an OBA of .226 and they do give away almost one free base per inning. The Illini (19-15) seem to have been inspired by the beginning of Big 10 play and have by far played their best brand of ball inside league play. They are 10-2 in the conference, are averaging over 7.5 runs per game and are hitting almost .300 as a team. The pitching has answered the call as well as their league ERA is 1.5 points lower than their overall season performance. They allow opponents to hit .242 but play clean defensively at a .980 clip. Illinois is playing their best ball right now, especially at home, and look ready to take another series to keep pace at the top of the league.

Vin’s Pick: Maryland
 
Illinois currently resides ahead of Maryland in the Big Ten standings but they’ve got vastly different records with the Terrapins already amassing 30 wins and Illinois not yet to 20. The pitching makes the difference here as Ryan Ramsey has been a true ace for Maryland while Jason Savacool has taken the next step in terms of his development. The offense has home run power as well but I think run prevention and pitching will carry Maryland.
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