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College  | Story | 3/31/2022

Week 7 College Picks and Preview

Vincent Cervino
Craig Cozart
Photo: Chase Dollander (Tennessee Athletics)
Top 25 In Action

Rank Team Opponent Location
1 Tennessee at #7 Vanderbilt Nashville, Tenn.
2 Oklahoma State at Kansas State Manhattan, Kan.
3 Virginia vs. #23 Georgia Tech Charlottesville, Va.
4 Texas Tech at Kansas Lawrence, Kan.
5 Oregon State vs. Stanford Corvallis, Ore.
6 Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Fayetteville, Ark.
7 Vanderbilt vs. #1 Tennessee Nashville, Tenn.
8 Florida State vs. #13 Notre Dame Tallahassee, Fla.
9 Texas at Oklahoma Norman, Okla.
10 TCU vs. West Virginia Fort Worth, Texas
11 Ole Miss at Kentucky Lexington, Ky.
12 Louisville at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, Pa.
13 Notre Dame at #8 Florida State Tallahassee, Fla.
14 Miami at Duke Durham, N.C.
15 LSU vs. Auburn Baton Rouge, La.
16 Oregon at UCLA Los Angeles, Calif.
17 Dallas Baptist vs. Wofford Dallas, Texas
18 Florida at Georgia Athens, Ga.
19 UCONN at Kent State Kent, Ohio
20 Texas State at Appalachian State Boone, N.C.
21 Louisiana Tech at Southern Miss Hattiesburg, Miss.
22 North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech Chapel Hill, N.C.
23 Georgia Tech at #3 Virginia Charlottesville, Va.
24 Arizona at Washington Seattle, Wash.
25 Gonzaga vs. Pepperdine Spokane, Wash.




Picks & Breakdowns

Matchup Vin's Picks Cozy's Picks
#1 Tennessee at #7 Vanderbilt
#23 Georgia Tech at #3 Virginia
Stanford at #5 Oregon State
#13 Notre Dame at #8 Florida State
#18 Florida at Georgia
#21 Louisiana Tech at Southern Miss
South Florida at Central Florida
Purdue at Illinois
 

No. 1 Tennessee at No. 7 Vanderbilt 
Cozy's Pick: Tennessee 
Tennessee is almost halfway through the season, and they have yet to show any legitimate weaknesses.  They lead the nation in team batting average, ERA, home runs, runs, WHIP and we could keep going.  As impressive as they are on paper, it is obvious that they have tremendous confidence and a toughness that allows them to play the game their way no matter the environment.  The scary thing is that they have been even better in SEC play, especially on the mound, where they have a ridiculous 1.33 team ERA and a 14:1 K/BB ratio.  Vandy is coming off a disappointing series loss at South Carolina where they won the first game.  They have a balanced offense with 51 doubles, 30 home runs and 33 stolen bases.  The pitching staff is hitting its stride, but they have a 3.81 ERA in conference play which is over a point higher than their overall team ERA.  They are fielding a perfect 1.000 in six conference games, and everyone is waiting to see exactly how good the Commodores can be.  This weekend will be the best measuring stick of the season, but it seems Tennessee is just better than everyone in totality.  The Vols will win at least two out of three in Nashville.   

Vin's Pick: Tennessee
On paper, the Vols are head and shoulders above the rest of the country in terms of both offensive production and on the mound. Our No. 1 team for the past two weeks looks to take care of business against their in-state counterpart as Vanderbilt is also looking to bounce back after a tough series loss last weekend against South Carolina. Vanderbilt is the symbolic ceiling that Tennessee looks to break through during the Tony Vitello era, not only in the SEC but also on the national landscape. 


No. 23 Georgia Tech at No. 3 Virginia  

Cozy's Pick: Virginia 
Last weekend the Yellow Jackets were surprisingly swept by NC State and now sit a game under .500 in ACC play.  This team is immensely talented but there are some troubling trends that must be addressed quickly.  Their team ERA in conference play is a bloated 7.05, with an OBA of .285 and they are giving up 10.7 free bases per game.  Offensively, they have been inconsistent in producing runs lately, but they are scary with 102 extra-base hits on the year.  They are average defensively and simply have not played well on the road.  The Cavaliers on the other hand have been one of the most complete teams in the country this year.  They have won 19 consecutive games at home and haven’t really shown any deficiencies to this point.  They slash .331/.563/. 440 with 39 stolen bases, so they pressure opposing defenses with power and speed.  They are fielding a pristine .984, have only surrendered 5 stolen bases all year, average almost 12 strikeouts per game and hold opponents to a .187 OBA.  Virginia was in the conversation as the top team in the nation and should take the series this weekend, with a chance to sweep.  

Vin's Pick: Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech has had a couple of tough series as of late, dropping their last two, but look to turn the tides against a top-3 ranked UVA club. The Jackets have one of the most relentless offenses in the country, led by probable first round pick Kevin Parada while Chance Huff has given them a legitimate chance on Friday nights in conference. There’s no question this would be an upset, but I think Georgia Tech is a team that’ll stabilize themselves and stay in the rankings for the foreseeable future. 


Stanford at No. 5 Oregon State  

Cozy's Pick: Oregon State 
The Cardinal looked like a top-10 team through the month of February, but things have been quite unpredictable in March.  They are 0-4 in actual road games and started off PAC-12 play losing five of their first six games.  This should be an offensive juggernaut, but their slash line is .278/.452/.370 and they have almost identical numbers in league play.  The defense is a bit of a concern, and they have a team ERA of 5.33 in nine conference games and are fielding a rather poor .955 as well.  The Beavers are having a great year with the sticks, accumulating 53 doubles, 27 home runs and 36 stolen bases.  Their numbers offensively have translated well in conference play where they are (6-3) and their pitching numbers have actually gotten better.  They have a 4.18 team ERA with an OBA of .242 and are only surrendering 4.4 free bases per game.  Goss Stadium will be alive this weekend and Oregon State should continue to roll, taking another weekend series.  

Vin's Pick: Oregon State
Oregon State has looked like one of the best teams week-in and week-out, while Stanford has been one of the more disappointing teams thus far. The Beavers are extremely deep on the mound both in terms of starting options and bullpen depth while Jacob Melton looks like a bonified Golden Spikes candidate in center field and Travis Bazzana has proven to be one of the best freshmen in the country. I expect the Beavers to take care of business and win the series handedly.


No. 13 Notre Dame at No. 8 Florida State  
Cozy's Pick: Florida State 
The game of baseball is supposed to be a daily grind and it takes volume and consistent on field competition to give you a feel for your club.  The Fighting Irish simply haven’t been able to do that lately, as they have already lost three conference games, only played two games in the last 10 days and a total of three home games all year.  They are fundamentally sound, field .988 and are excellent at generating offense in a variety of fashions.  However, in ACC play they are batting a meager .258, have a team ERA of 7.50 and give up an average of 10.5 free bases per game.  Easy to see why they are 2-4 in league play.  The Seminoles come into the weekend riding the strength of one of the best pitching rotations in the nation.  They strike out almost 13 batters per game and their bullpen has been almost as impressive as the rotation.  FSU plays very well at home, have played the fourth-toughest schedule in the nation and sit in second place in the Atlantic Division of the ACC.  Notre Dame is no doubt an elite team but haven’t been on the field enough to work out some of their concerns.  The Seminoles should take care of business at home once again, taking two out of three in the series. 

Vin's Pick: Florida State
The Seminoles have been frustrating this season in that they don’t seem to have hit their ceiling just yet, a scary proposition for opposing ACC teams given their three-headed monster in the weekend rotation. They dropped a mid-week to in-state rival Florida but you’ll still be hard pressed to find a better staff than what the Noles bring to the table. The offense has been paced by a pair of true freshmen in Jamie Ferrer and James Tibbs while veteran pieces look to break out sooner rather than later. Notre Dame has been somewhat disappointing this spring given their 2021 and it’s the pitching depth that’ll make a difference this weekend. 


No. 18 Florida at Georgia 

Cozy's Pick: Florida 
The Gators are coming off a very disappointing series loss at home to LSU but bounced back to defeat in-state rival FSU on Tuesday.  It’s hard to know what version of the 2022 team will show up day-to-day but when the good version shows up, they can beat anyone.  They continue to score runs regularly through a deep offense that has five regulars with five or more home runs.  They win basically every Friday night, but the next two games of a series have been an adventure due to pitching inconsistencies.  Their 7.26 team ERA in SEC play is concerning, that’s why they’re 3-3 in the league, but they continue to be one of the best defensive units in the country.   The Bulldogs play outstanding at home but are only playing .500 ball in the SEC.  They have been involved in some wild game in league play and their 9.52 team ERA in the SEC is a major concern.  They allow their opponents to hit .306 and they give up 10.5 free bases per game, so this pressures their offense to score runs in bunches.  Odds are this is a high-scoring affair, whoever can get some decent starts on the mound in games 2 and 3 will win the series.  All this said, the Gators do have the more talented club and leave Athens taking two-of-three. 

Vin's Pick: Florida
The Gators drops a home series against LSU last weekend, but the quality of their resume thus far should point to a bounce back weekend in Athens. Staff ace Hunter Barco is the early Pitcher of the Year favorite while the offense has been clicking on all cylinders, from Sterlin Thompson to Colby Halter and the Fabian brothers. 


No. 21 Louisiana Tech at Southern Mississippi  

Cozy's Pick: Southern Mississippi 
The Bulldogs have played a solid schedule and are a well-balanced club.  Their offense has racked up 55 doubles, 33 home runs and has swiped 24 bags.  They allow less than 7 free bases per game, have a 3:1 K/BB ratio with a team ERA of 3.95 and their C-USA numbers virtually mirror their overall numbers.  Like their opponent this weekend, they sit atop the conference standings with a 5-1 record.  Southern Miss is six spots ahead of LaTech in the RPI and have played a slightly better schedule.  They are a touch less offensive with a slash line of .283/.462/.385 but carry a distinct advantage going into the weekend with what they do on the mound.  They have a sparkling 3.17 ERA, have a 5:1 K/BB ratio, and they average 10.7 punchouts per game.  They simply don’t allow opponents very many opportunities to score, allowing six free bases per contest.  This is an early battle for the regular season C-USA crown.  Both teams are postseason bound, they are very closely matched but very few teams come into the Pete and win a series.  The Golden Eagles look primed to win the series and take control of the league. 

Vin's Pick: Louisiana Tech
Newly-ranked Louisiana Tech heads into the hornet’s nest as they head into Southern Miss in what is one of the toughest parks to play in college baseball. The Bulldogs have one of the more advanced offenses in the country being led by Cole McConnell and Taylor Young, while Southern Miss presents some interesting pitching matchups on the mound. In terms of stuff, Dalton Rogers and Hurston Waldrep can match up with anybody and they should prove to be a tough test for the Bulldogs, but their veteran pieces should be enough to propel them to victory this weekend. 

 
University of South Florida at University of Central Florida  

Cozy's Pick: Central Florida
The “War on I-4” as it is known is actually one of the more bitter rivalries in all of college athletics.  Both programs have had their moments of national relevance over the years, and they have both always fought for respect in the Sunshine State.  The Bulls had an amazing run to the Super Regional in Austin last year and this year have the look of a contender in the AAC.  They have had quality starting pitching for most of the year, strike out opposing hitters at a high rate and field a pedestrian .963 as a team.  They have produced well with the sticks and can steal a bag here and there.  However, they have only left campus for three mid-week contests this season and are sure to get a rude reception in Orlando.  The Knights were within a hit or two of taking a home series against then-top-ranked Ole Miss but ended up losing 2-of-3.  Since then, they have not played very well, going 7-7.  UCF is one of the top teams in the nation with 56 stolen bases, they use the gaps at the plate and can score runs.  They have the advantage on the mound, with a team ERA of 3.27, can miss barrels at a high level and only issue 7.5 free bases per game.  The Knights should open conference play with a series win this weekend at home. 

Vin's Pick: South Florida
The Bulls have won six straight heading into American Conference play as they head down I-4 to take on the Knights. Orion Kerkering has slid into the Friday night role nicely and will matchup against UCF ace Connor Staine, who’s making his way back from a minor injury and has put himself on the draft radar early this spring. It’s a balanced offensive attack for USF, led by emerging sophomore star Drew Brutcher who could make the difference in what should be an evenly matched series. 


Purdue at Illinois 

Cozy's Pick: Illinois 
The Boilermakers are off to one of the best starts in program history.  They play a very distinct kind of offense where they crowd the plate and sell out to the middle of the field.  They rely on the HBP and stolen base to get them going as they have been hit 50 times and have snagged 57 bags on the season.  Their pitching staff is carrying a very solid 3.15 ERA, the rotation has been excellent but there are still some questions at the back end of the bullpen.  The reason they are not in the Top 25 is they haven’t challenged themselves in their non-conference segment, as they have played the 273rd toughest schedule in the nation.  The Illini are off to a tough start but have only played three home games in 2022.  They historically play very well at home, where the ballpark is spacious and when the weather is nice, they get great fan support.  Offensively they play fast, move the baseball and are unpredictable from a team standpoint.  They thrive on putting the ball in the gap with 50 doubles on the year and have stolen 22 bags.  There is still a lot to be solved on the mound with their 5.75 team ERA, but they only allow 8 free bags per game, so opponents must earn what they get.  This will be a close series but the homestanding Illini should secure the weekend. 

Vin's Pick: Purdue 
Purdue has enjoyed a very hot start to the season and will face their toughest foe yet in Big 10 opponent Illinois. Jackson Smeltz versus Cole Kirschsieper should be one of the better matchups across the country as both can pound the zone and miss bats. Purdue is one of the more veteran teams in the Big 10 and their maturity with the sticks should carry them throughout the weekend.        
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