As we sit, the MLB Draft is scheduled to start in 74 days on July 11, and run through July 13. This is, obviously, the latest the draft has been in some time. On the other hand, there wasn't a whole lot of adjustments made to various college/high school schedules, so most of the players you see below are going to be dealing with some dead time between the end of their seasons and the draft itself. That's pretty unique, obviously, as that's not always the case. Some might play summer ball, some will assuredly have pre-draft workouts with teams, and some we might not hear from outside of bullpens until the draft itself. Now, to the draft itself...
This draft is more or less universally panned as a "just okay" draft by those, like us, who have seen all of these players. The prep shortstops are a serious bright spot and may cause us to one day look back at this class as extremely impactful. The top-three prep bats have separated themselves into their own tier at this point, with Mayer/House/Lawlar making up those 3. Marcelo Mayer seems to be the least likely of the three to stick at shortstop, but also perhaps the most enticing of the three long term given his left-handed hitting tools and power projection. Corey Seager has been a popular comparison thrown around. Brady House, as we've long said here at PG, offers extremely high upside. A freak of an athlete with excellent physicality, House has some of the best raw power in the country and has a good chance to play short. Jordan Lawlar, even at this early stage, is expected to be the second overall pick to the Rangers, and offers the most sure bet to stay at shortstop along with enticing right-handed power at the plate.
Beyond the top-three, the prep bats are still exciting, especially given the grand total of like three college bats who have actually made some money this spring when compared to preseason expectations. Khalil Watson offers one of the more high-end toolsets in the country but is really just getting underway in N.C. Will Taylor has been one of the biggest prep risers thus far, as an 80 runner who has a very intriguing twitch/glove/power projection profile. Harry Ford has been described as a "unicorn" by more than a few high-ranking scouts, and his athleticism/offensive profile/potential defensive versatility have him a good bet to go in the top-20. Benny Montgomery might be on the Mt. Rushmore of all-time toolsets in PG events, and if he continues to show improved bat-to-ball skills and swing improvements this spring, the sky is the limit. Joe Mack's offensive upside and arm strength give him significant heat, while Alex Mooney is a slam dunk to stay on the dirt while coming into more and more power this spring.
Other potential Day 1 prep notables include Bubba Chandler, the Clemson QB commit (Will Taylor actually is as well), who some teams actually prefer as a switch-hitting shortstop with power, but is still (by a slim majority) preferred as a power right-handed arm. Lonnie White is a noted freak of athleticism and tools with a football commitment to Penn State, but the returns this spring have been extremely loud so far this spring. Peyton Stovall has 15 bombs and it's hard to say that anyone has performed better than he this spring, he's viewed as a potential backend first rounder-comp rounder (call it picks 20-40) who profiles as an offensive-minded second baseman with power long term. Josh Baez has some of the best power in the class and looks like an ideal archetype for right field long term. And there are MANY more prep bats worth mentioning as potential top-three rounders.
The college side has been less fun, for sure. Given the general tip of the drafts in recent years towards selecting college players over high school players on the basis of more available data to feed into models/decision-making processes, it's especially interesting that in this draft, it's prep players who are the risers so far. Part of that has to do with flawed board-building preseason given the lack of data on college players, and part of that has to do with the fact that a lot of college players lauded preseason simply have not performed. Will we see the inverse of teams actually somewhat preferring prep players this year? And, if so, will that end up being just a one-year blip on the radar of the overall college lean?
The two main college risers this spring from a bat perspective are Henry Davis and Sal Frelick, at last insofar as moving towards the top-10 picks. Davis has an 80 arm behind the plate with good twitch but some receiving/blocking concerns, though his batted ball profile is elite and he absolutely hammers baseballs with 30+ home run potential. Frelick is a 70 runner who profiles in center field with excellent bat-to-ball skills but somewhat limited power projection. In a world where college bats are often the quickest to rise, those are the two major ones this year.
Not to bury the lede too much, but we've obviously gone with Jack Leiter at No. 1 overall, with discussions that included Leiter as well as the three top prep shortstops before ultimately landing on Leiter. There are still a few concerns with Leiter, including size, breaking ball consistency, and command (he's still a 3.7 BB/9), though there are some thoughts that the walks are more a byproduct of Leiter's refusal to deviate from his plan of attacking the top of the zone, rather than loose command. Either way, he seems like The Guy right now.
The arms after Leiter have definitely jockeyed for position, and this list is certainly not that of an industry survey (our draft board never represents that entirely, our thoughts are given equal weight). Kumar Rocker is likely SP2, though some velocity fluctuations this year as well as lingering reliever concerns did hamper the profile a bit this spring, though with the velocity on the rise again, tremendous physicality, and the best breaker in the class, he's unlikely to drop too far and right now is probably in play beginning at pick three. We have established Jackson Jobe as the top prep arm on the board, as the righty has been absurd this spring, running his fastball into the mid-90s every time out with flashes of higher, a 70-grade slider at times as well as a good curveball and changeup. The fastball shape is of concern, and he's not a freaky athlete, but right now he's the guy of the prep arms and deserves to be ranked as such. Chase Petty is not far behind him, as he's been showing elite velocity in the early going up in New Jersey with improved arm action and spin. He has many reliever characteristics here and the profile is intensely risky, but the stuff is impossible to ignore, as are the improvements.
Following Petty, there's a mix of "eye of the beholder" types who are generally viewed close together, so the actual order of how they'll go is a crapshoot. Ryan Cusick has an elite fastball with good curveball traits and looks, at times, like a dynamic high-rotation starter. Ty Madden is Mr. Consistency with two plus pitches in his fastball and slider, but no clear third pitch and some operational questions. Sam Bachman has electric stuff, with a power sinker up to 101 mph and a hellacious slider, but the rest of the arsenal has been inconsistent and he's missed starts this season. Jordan Wicks has a plus changeup and good data but the breaking ball isn't plus and changeup-dominant starter profiles can be hard to project, and Andrew Painter has been up and down this spring but the combination of size, strikes, velocity, and spin remain very high-end.
Some major risers on this board regardless of where they ended up include:
-California prep shortstop Carson Williams, who has big power, a beautiful swing, and the traits to play short.
-Kansas prep righty Ben Kudrna, who we were aggressive on last fall and into the winter but has been even better than that with a stuff jump across the board, he's in play in the back of the first for some.
-Fordham lefty Matt Mikulski, who had good stuff but limited success a year ago when he was eligible for the first time, but who has seen a stuff jump across the board this spring with better strikes and operation.
-Mississippi prep lefty Maddux Bruns, who has extremely loud flashes on the circuit (PG National), but whose steps forward in consistency and strikes have really jumped him up.
-Eastern Illinois shortstop Trey Sweeney, who has performed in a big way and has excellent left-handed power projection with size and a chance to play short.
-Nebraska shortstop/closer Spencer Schwellenbach, who is a plus athlete with good offensive performance and defensive skills, but who some teams prefer on the mound, where he has a clean delivery with arm speed and has been up to 99, who some think could be developed as a starter. Schwellenbach was a talented prep pitcher who had interest from SEC schools as a pitcher-only, but who preferred to play both ways and has primarily been developed as a shortstop by Nebraska, and to good results. He's one of the draft's more intriguing storylines.
-Florida State catcher Matheu Nelson, who may have already hit another bomb as I type this. Viewed more in the 7-10 range a year ago when he was eligible for the first time, but with his power surge this spring in a class of college hitters that have been more bad than good this spring, he's rising up boards quickly.
There have been many others, and you'll find we've been aggressive with prep players on this board as a result of both their performances as well as the limited collegiate rise as a whole. This list will assuredly look different in both future iterations (500 around Memorial Day, full board around July 1), as the class is still figuring itself out and we have that weird dead period to get through as well, where weird things are almost promised to happen. As always, stay tuned to Perfect Game for the industry standard in MLB Draft coverage. -Brian Sakowski
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