Offense doesn’t always translate to power, but that’s often the case. Seattle’s Ichiro Suzuki has accumulated numbers with hits and batting average that compare to anyone in the history of baseball, but no one is ever going to say he’s the best, or even one of the best offensive players in the game over the last decade. Pete Rose would be able to relate to that statement.
Carrying it a step further, how does speed factor into evaluating offensive performance? Ichiro has stolen 323 bases, at a 75-plus percent efficiency. Rose stole 194 bases over his career but was so mediocre at it that he should have never strayed far from first base. How do we evaluate the speed of players like Jose Reyes or Carl Crawford?
In somewhat the same way, offensive production at different positions can mean different things. If Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr. had played left field instead of shortstop (and occasionally missed a game, to boot), he wouldn’t be one of the most-revered players in baseball history and a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer.
The ability to reach base as part of one’s offensive potential is a more modern concept, but it can be evaluated in young prospects. Anyone who saw Tampa Bay’s B.J. Upton play in high school, and paid attention to such things, knew he would have a well above-average number of walks as a professional. He walked 97 times last year, which more than offset his 134 strikeouts in the big picture.
So in evaluating overall offensive potential in prospects, we can’t just narrow it to one area. Power translates directly to run production, but it is shaded by a number of other factors as well.
The 2008 draft class (Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso, Kyle Skipworth, Buster Posey, Gordan Beckham, Brett Wallace, etc) had some special offensive players and potentially was one of the best offensive classes in draft history. The 2009 class is much more high-school dominated at the plate, which makes it more difficult to project a high ceiling as a group.
With that insight as a backdrop, here is a look at the top 10 offensive players in the 2009 draft in terms of overall potential.
1. Dustin Ackley, 1b-of, North Carolina
That Ackley is going to hit for average at a high level is almost a given. He has outstanding plate discipline (49 walks this spring) and plus speed (14 SB in a non-running offensive environment). The two questions are power and position. If he’s a 20-25 home-run hitter and can play center field, he’s an all-star.
2. Bobby Borchering, 3b, Bishop Verot HS, Fort Myers, Fla.
Borchering is that rare breed, a switch-hitter who can drive the ball out of the park from both sides of the plate. He isn’t Chipper Jones; he’ll have to work hard to remain at third base in the long haul and doesn’t project as a future batting champion, but his raw power eclipses Jones’ at the same age.
3. Jeff Malm, 1b, Bishop Gorman HS, Las Vegas, Nev.
Malm has been such a dominant hitter at the high-school level and in summer competition (Team USA’s junior-national team, American Legion ball, showcases) for so long that you almost take his production for granted. He slammed 17 homers this spring for the nation’s top high-school team and tied a national record for most career hits. He has power, superior hit-ability and patience in a lefthanded hitting package.
4. Max Stassi, c, Yuba City (Calif.) HS
Stassi probably hasn’t hit under .500 for any extended stretch in his baseball career and as he’s gotten bigger (some say maybe too big) he’s developed the power to go with it. That package on a catcher should play at a high level for a very long time.
5. Mike Trout, of, Millville (N.J.) HS
If you had to pick one player in the 2009 draft class who might be the most likely to join the 30/30 club at the major-league level one day, that player might be the multi-talented Trout. He has the running speed, the bat speed and the power swing to do it—if he can just develop the hitting skills.
6. Matt Davidson, 3b, Yucaipa (Calif.) HS
Davidson has matured significantly as a hitter over the last 12 months and learned how to use his leverage and raw strength more judiciously. His offensive package and swing resemble a young Troy Glaus.
7. Randal Grichuk, of, Lamar Consolidated HS, Rosenberg, Texas
Grichuk has been a home-run hitting phenom since Little League and hit 25 home runs this spring adding up scrimmages, regular season and state playoffs—despite his considerable reputation as a power threat and everyone knowing what he can do. He’s a righthanded-hitting corner outfielder, not a great demographic, but he might hit the ball harder than anyone in the 2009 prep class.
8. Wil Myers, c-3b, Wesleyan Christian Academy, Thomasville, N.C.
Myers wouldn’t normally make this list as a third baseman but convinced scouts this spring that he can catch at a high level, which makes his plus/plus power a big-time tool at that demanding defensive position.
9. A.J. Pollock, of, Notre Dame
Pollock has shown flashes of all the necessary offensive ingredients: power, patience, hit-ability and speed, all the while being able to play center field and maybe even second base at the big-league level. If everything comes together at the same time, Pollock could make some all-star teams.
10. Rich Poythress, 1b, Georgia
Poythress looked like this year’s version of Matt LaPorta (7th pick, 2007 draft) at the midway point of this season but his late-season fade has taken some of the luster off that projection. Still, he is one of the most dominant and polished hitters in college baseball (.376-25-86, 42 BB) and should advance quickly in pro ball.