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College  | Story | 6/9/2016

2016 Super Regional Preview

Patrick Ebert
Mike Rooney
Photo: Texas A&M



2016 Super Regionals Set (with links to Regional coverage)


Friday through Sunday games

Coral Gables (Fla.) Super Regional – Boston College at Miami

Miami
Michael Mediavilla (Richard Lewis / Miami Athletics)
It’s hard to find an easy out in Miami’s lineup, much less a hitter that isn’t a threat to leave the park with a single swing. Zack Collins serves as the heart and soul of the offense, with plenty of supporting cast members that have a flair for the big hit. And if one seemingly goes cold there always seems to be another ready to take their place. The pitching staff isn’t too shabby either, and coach Jim Morris has always shown an astute ability to manage his staff effectively, as proven again last year on their trek to Omaha. Their top three starters – Danny Garcia, Michael Mediavilla and Jesse Lepore – are a combined 28-4 this year with an ERA right at 3.00. Plus, they have one of the best in the business closing games out in Bryan Garcia, although their bullpen depth isn’t quite as strong as it was a year ago.

Boston College
Justin Dunn is the star on the display, one of the fastest rising prospects eligible for this year’s draft, with the ability to sustain low- to mid-90s heat late into games, and he was masterful in shutting down Tulane to open Regional play in Oxford last weekend. Jacob Stevens may not throws as hard but as been nearly as effective, while Mike King fits the senior leadership profile. While their bullpen hasn’t been as dominant they do have a handful of arms they feel comfortable turning to in a variety of roles. BC will need to keep it close because they don’t have the firepower to out-slug Miami, but they do know how to work counts and get on-base at a high clip while putting pressure on opposing defenses. That could be the recipe a team needs to beat the mighty Hurricanes.

PG’s Pick: Boston College
Based on how so many Regional sites went to the non-host, there has to be an upset in the Super Regional round, right? If there’s going to be one Boston College has three tried and true starters, led by Justin Dunn who seems to get better and better with each and every start. They won ACC series during the regular season against eventual Regional hosts NC State, Virginia and Louisville, so it’s not that far of a stretch.



College Station (Texas) Super Regional – Texas Christian at Texas A&M

Texas A&M
Brigham Hill (Texas A&M)
It didn’t take long for Texas A&M to assume their dominance at home last weekend, allowing just two runs in each of the three games they played while scoring four, 22 and eight respectively in wins over their entire Regional field (Binghamton, Wake Forest and Minnesota, respectively). Coach Rob Childress has certainly found a nice pair of arms to turn to out of the gates in Kyle Simonds and Brigham Hill, with Turner Larkins giving him a solid third and Andrew Vinson providing a rubber-like arm out of the bullpen that can pitch multiple innings at a time. And Mark Ecker saved two more games over the weekend. For as good as Boomer White and company have been on offense Jonathan Moroney seems to be good for two or three base hits every gamewith a knack for coming up big with runners on base. From the lineup, one through nine, to the starters and the bullpen this juggernaut is going to be hard to stop.

Texas Christian
That’s where TCU comes in. Last year it was the Horned Frogs that had the home-field advantage playing these same Aggies for a chance to advance to the College World Series. It was TCU that won the series, although this team has a much different overall look and feel to it. They don’t have the usual cast of starting pitchers that Frogs fans are used to, but they do have a deep cast of supporters who know their roles and have been successful all season long. Brian Howard and Dalton Horton have been two of those pitchers, with the versatile and unheralded Jared Jaczak also deserving mention. Mitchell Traver enjoyed a strong start last weekend as he continues to build arm strength, and more importantly, confidence, at the perfect time of the season. And the offense, led by intimidating freshman Luken Baker, continues to hit the ball unlike most TCU offenses we’ve grown accustomed to in recent years. Make no mistake, this is a dangerous ballclub with a very good skipper at the top – Jim Schlossnagle –leading the way.

PG’s Pick: Texas A&M
While TCU does have a legitimate chance to dethrone the mighty Aggies it’s hard envisioning that at this point of the season. Everything seems to be clicking for them as they could very well be on a path not only to Omaha, but the CWS Finals.



Lubbock (Texas) Super Regional – East Carolina at Texas Tech
Tanner Gardner and Stephen Smith (Texas Tech)
Texas Tech
What may be the longest and most experienced lineup in college baseball resides in Lubbock and senior first baseman Eric Gutierrez seems to be willing the Red Raiders to Omaha this year. Stephen Smith and Cory Raley earned All-Regional honors and three-hole hitter Tanner Gardner is a force in the middle of the order. The pitching staff was an area of potential vulnerability as three freshmen had constituted the weekend rotation during Big 12 play. However, lefthander Hayden Howard was named Regional MVP and this pitching staff suddenly has depth.

East Carolina
Cliff Godwin has quickly reignited the Pirates' strong baseball tradition and ECU is making its fourth-ever Super Regional appearance.  This was originally scheduled to be a rebuilding year in Greenville but the veteran rotation of Evan Kruczynski, Jimmy Boyd and Jacob Wolfe has carried the day. East Carolina may have "caught a break" by drawing the Charlottesville Regional since they are now 3-1 versus Virginia at Davenport Field. Two of the Pirates most interesting position players are freshmen shortstop Turner Brown and outfielder Dwayna Williams-Sutton.

PG's Pick: Texas Tech
The real matchup here is the veteran Texas Tech lineup versus the veteran ECU pitching staff. The crowds in Lubbock will be a factor and this park will play offensive. It always feels wise to pick run prevention over scoring prowess at this time of year. However, this Red Raiders pitching staff is underrated and Tim Tadlock's group knows how to win a Super Regional.



Starkville (Miss.) Super Regional – Arizona at Mississippi State

Mississippi State
Austin Sexton (Kelly Price, MSU Media Relations)
John Cohen's club is super talented, super deep and they play with a significant chip on their shoulder. Jack Kruger and Nathaniel Lowe are two older players with a pure hit tool and Jacob Robson and Jake Mangum give this lineup a couple of live wires to get things started. This is a very deep pitching staff and there is velocity and out-pitches seemingly everywhere. Dakota Hudson, Austin Sexton, and Zac Houston have had some moments of inconsistency but they consistently miss bats with premium stuff.

Arizona
The Wildcats have overachieved in a big way in Jay Johnson's inaugural campaign and this is the program's first return to the NCAA Tournament since the 2012 National Championship season.  This lineup includes several key seniors led by hit-machine Zach Gibbons. Arizona plays elite defense but the pitching staff does not offer tremendous depth. Bobby Dalbec may be the team's most valuable player for his contributions on the mound despite a very difficult season offensively. Kevin Ginkel made his best start of the season in the final game of the Regional so Johnson and pitching coach David Lawn will have some challenging decisions to make regarding the rotation this weekend.

PG's Pick: Mississippi State
Arizona made a great run in the Lafayette Regional losers' bracket but this is a different assignment altogether. Mississippi State has legitimate swagger and Dudy-Noble Stadium is sure to be rocking. The Bulldogs feel like an unstoppable force in this Super Regional.

Saturday through Monday games

Gainesville (Fla.) Super Regional – Florida State at Florida

Florida
Pete Alonso (Tim Casey)
2016 marks the second year in a row that Florida is hosting a Super Regional, and the second year in a row that they have faced Florida State. Last year they made quick work of the Seminoles, winning by scores of 13-5 and 11-4, and also beat FSU in their two midweek games earlier this season by scores of 6-0 and 3-2. Both Logan Shore and Pete Alonso returned at full strength, and Alonso in particular was dominant on his way to being named the Perfect Game/Rawlings Player of the Week after going 8-for-14 with two home runs and eight RBI. As noted all season long matching the Gators’ pitching depth is no easy task, and they will be able to re-stock their starting rotation in this best-of-three series, starting with Shore and continuing with A.J. Puk and Alex Faedo with numerous options to turn to out of the bullpen. In addition to Alonso's return, freshman third baseman Jonathan India has been swinging a hot bat and J.J. Schwarz is tapping into his power stroke more frequently.

Florida State
While the Seminoles will certainly have their hands full in Gainesville they have the talent to pull off the upset, and head coach Mike Martin certainly knows how to mix and match to put in the right pieces at the right time to win. If nothing else FSU can out-hit opponents, as the top and middle of their lineup has been seeing the ball extremely well recently, out-scoring their Regional opponents 43-14 in what seemed like a fairly easy path to Super Regional play. While John Sansone has been extremely consistent all year, Jackson Lueck has really stepped up recently and is now hitting over .400 (.408) with Dylan Busby also providing numerous clutch hits, as he now has 14 home runs on the year, which leads the team. While the starting staff isn’t as stout as Florida’s they do have a very deep bullpen to turn to, with five different arms that have an ERA under 3.00, led by 6-foot-7 junior Jim Voyles. Sophomore Drew Carlton and freshman Cole Sands both have ERAs above 4.00 but they too have been steady all season long and won’t be intimidated by their Florida starting counterparts.

PG’s Pick: Florida
It’s near impossible to bet against the Gators at this point in the season, as they spent the majority of the year ranked No. 1 overall and entered the postseason as the No. 1 overall seed. While FSU may be playing with a chip on their shoulder after losing their last four contests against the Gators, head coach Kevin O’Sullivan knows what it takes to keep his team focused for a return trip to Omaha.



Louisville (Ky.) Super Regional – UC Santa Barbara at Louisville

Louisvile
Nick Solak (University of Louisville Sports Information)
The Cardinals seem to be on cruise control after beating North Carolina in Chapel Hill in early May, and after losing their road series to Boston College in late April Louisville is 19-3 since, with two of those losses coming in the ACC Tournament. Plus, head coach Dan McDonnell has a little fuel to fire up his squad as it’s certain they all have last year’s Super Regional home loss at the hands of Cal State Fullerton on their mind. Second baseman Nick Solak and catcher Will Smith –arguably the fastest-rising prospect eligible for this year’s draft – have given opposing pitchers fits and enter Super Regional play with .380 batting averages. Both are extremely difficult outs, as neither swings and misses much and both have the ability to leave the yard at any given time while providing steady defensive contributions at key positions up the middle of the field. Five other regulars – Devin Hairston, Colby Fitch, Brendan McKay, Blake Tiberi and Corey Ray – are also hitting well above .300, meaning there is no easy out in their lineup. They have three tried and true starters in Brendan McKay, Drew Harrington and Kyle Funkhouser, and a deep bullpen capped by their flamethrowing closer Zack Burdi.

UC Santa Barbara
While head coach Andrew Checketts is known primarily for his success working with pitchers – and the Gauchos still have a very good staff – the offense has also proven to give opposing pitchers fits this season and performed at a high level during Regional play in Nashville. Although they didn’t have to face host Vanderbilt they made quick work of both Washington and Xavier, out-lasting the Huskies in the first game over 14 innings before taking two games from the Musketeers, including a convincing 14-5 win to advance. Don’t let Andrew Calica’s .275 average fool you as he does a very good job getting on base from the leadoff spot, as evidenced by his .451 on-base percentage, while Austin Bush provides the thunder in the middle of the lineup. Shane Bieber is one of the best command-oriented pitchers in college baseball, and also has pretty good stuff, giving McKay a stout test in their opening game matchup on Saturday. Sophomore lefthander Kyle Nelson, who had two big performances in the Regionals, has a big arm with swing-and-miss stuff and got better as the season progressed, finishing with a team-best 2.08 ERA in a versatile role out of the bullpen that allowed him to go 7-2 with eight saves.

PG’s Pick: Louisville
Similar to the Gators as detailed above it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals having a major hiccup at this point in the season, although the same was said a year before when they lost to the Titans, like UCSB a power from the Big West Conference. However, this year they have that memory to help them stay focused, with one of the complete rosters from top to bottom in all of college baseball.



Columbia (S.C.) Super Regional – Oklahoma State at South Carolina

South Carolina
Alex Destino (South Carolina Athletics)
This club has a mental toughness that must give Chad Holbrook great satisfaction as his Gamecocks won their first Regional since 2013. The offense had many heroes in coming through the losers' bracket last weekend, but the trio of Gene Cone, Dom Thompson-Williams and Alex Destino have carried most of the load this year. Tyler Johnson punctuated his great year by tossing a complete game gem over UNC Wilmington in his first start of the year that allowed him to capture Regional MVP.

Oklahoma State
This veteran group earned preseason top 10 attention only to endure the most challenging regular season of Josh Holliday's four-year tenure in Stillwater. After four straight walkoff losses early in the season, and then a four-game home losing streak in the middle of the year, things have seemingly come together at the perfect time for the Cowboys. The rotation of Thomas Hatch, Tyler Buffett and Jensen Elliott dominated a very good Clemson lineup in Regional play last weekend. Trey Cobb and Garrett Williams both flashed unhittable stuff at the end of the game as well. A finally healthy Conor Costello starred in Clemson, garnering Player of the Week consideration, while Jon Littell added much-needed production at the bottom of the order.

 PG's Pick: Oklahoma State
They say that Omaha happens when you least expect it. Winning at both Clemson and South Carolina would certainly be going in the front door but this Cowboys team is peaking at just the right time. This is the best this offense has looked all year while pitching has rarely been the challenge for Oklahoma State. South Carolina exhausted itself in clawing its way back through the losers' bracket and both Clarke Schmidt and Braden Webb seem questionable for game one of this Super Regional. Offensively, the Gamecocks seem short outside of their big three.



Baton Rouge (La.) Super Regional – Coastal Carolina at Louisiana State

Louisiana State
Alex Lange (LSU Athletics)
This week marks the 20-year anniversary of Warren Morris' famous walkoff home run so fate seems to be on the Tigers' side. Additionally, this is one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 17 of its last 20 games. Greg Deichmann was named Regional MVP and he is a high-upside player who seems to be finding his groove with impressive power in the lefthanded batter’s box. Alex Lange was back to his dominant form down the stretch and shortstop Kramer Robertson has solidified the three-hole in this lineup as well. Jared Poche bailed the Tigers out with six-plus outstanding innings in Tuesday's elimination game to advance.

Coastal Carolina
Gary Gilmore takes the Chants to the Super Regional round for the third time since 2008 and this may be his best team since the 2010 group. Coastal comes to Baton Rouge with 47 wins and they are a sizzling 36-8 over their last 44 games. The Chants are second in the nation with 91 home runs but this is not a one-dimensional offense as they are also in the top-12 nationally in sacrifice bunts, walks drawn, and runs scored. Utility pitcher Mike Morrison has the hot hand as he won All-Regional honors and was also named Big South Championship MVP.

PG's Pick: Coastal Carolina
It's time to get aggressive and we're going with the massive upset here. LSU has been white hot as of late but they were very, very fortunate to beat Rice in the Regional and a controversial call was right in the middle of that. Jared Poche needed to throw 12-plus innings in the Regional and he won't be able to do that in the Super Regional format. Additionally, this LSU group lacks postseason experience, especially the anxiety of being a mere two wins from Omaha. While Coastal's pitching depth is a concern, Alex Box Stadium plays to their strengths, especially their very legitimate home run power. This will go three games but we feel the ghosts of Stony Brook returning.
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