2015 MLB Draft Preview Content | Bregman, Rodgers go 2-3 in Draft | Shortstops go 1-2-3 in MLB Draft

After three days, 40 rounds, and 1,215 total picks the 2015 MLB Draft ended on Wednesday evening with the Angels’ selection of righthanded pitcher Jacob McDavid of Oral Roberts University. As many of us at Perfect Game turn our attention to the subsequent draft classes, let’s take a brief look at some of the organizations that stood out for their selections.

As with any sort of instant analysis, this exercise, like mock drafts, are often futile, based in speculation, and extremely subjective. None of these players have played even an inning with their organizations, and there are so many variables in successful player development that even the most talented amateur players face a tough, uphill battle to achieve their dreams of establishing themselves as big leaguers. Similarly, while there will always unfortunately be high-profile players and draft selections that don’t pan out as expected, there will certainly be late round sleepers that most (outside of the area scout that signed him and an organization’s player development staff) did not see coming.

So with all those caveats aside, and recognizing that it takes years and a holistic approach to completely analyze an organization’s draft efforts, here are some of the clubs that stood out to me over the last three days.


Standouts


Cleveland Indians

Long considered darlings of the amateur draft, the Indians turned in a typically strong effort in 2015. They’ve shown their affinity with high school pitchers and college bats in the last few draft classes, and they stuck with that approach early on, perhaps dropping one of the biggest bombshells of Monday night with their selection Brady Aiken at 17 overall. The 2013 Perfect Game All-American’s story has been well-detailed, and it is safe to say that had he remained healthy, Aiken would have certainly been a Top-5 pick, if not the first overall selection. Selecting him at 17 represents an aggressive approach, but one that has tremendous value. They stuck with prep arms in their two subsequent picks on Monday in Florida preps Triston McKenzie and Juan Hillman, both Perfect Game All-Americans in their own right. They both offer an advanced feel for pitching at such a young age and project to add more velocity, especially McKenzie. Given Cleveland’s strong track record of developing pitching the selection of arguably the top pitching prospect when healthy (Aiken), a super-projectable righty with a present feel for the craft (McKenzie), and arguably the most polished prep pitcher in the draft (Hillman) this trio could be considered a coup in terms of overall value at the 17,42, and 59 spots.

Cleveland also did a strong job in taking up-the-middle college performers in the middle rounds, with Mark Mathias, Tyler Kreiger, and Ka’ai Tom presenting athletic options with strong college track records. Mathias in particular had a strong summer in 2014 for USA Collegiate National Team, and continued to demonstrate an advanced hit tool this spring.

Finally, Cleveland got some good value and balanced their portfolio both in terms of “risk” and age, mixing in a variety of college and high school players in further rounds. They were able to grab Jonas Wyatt a high school righthanded pitcher, our 89th ranked player overall, in the sixth round and also pounced on Cal State Fullerton’s Justin Garza who fell to the eighth round following a UCL tear and subsequent Tommy John Surgery. They also selected strong college performers in switch-pitcher Ryan Perez (12th round), catcher Daniel Salters (13), Matt Esparza (14), and Connor Marabell (25) and a fair amount of high-upside high school players that they may choose to make a late run in signing in Daniel Sprinkle (15), Nick Madrigal (17), Luke Wakamatsu (20), Austin Rubick (27), and Tristin English (39).


Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have faced recent, and in my mind unfair, criticism for their drafts due in large part to their 2011 draft in which they had an unprecedented 11 of the first 75 selections. Some of those players have not performed as hoped up to this point, but as mentioned previously player development especially for kids drafted directly out of high school is not often a smooth, linear trajectory. In my mind they’ve been able to add a significant amount of talent to the system in the past three days, adding to a strong and underrated crop of players from the 2014 draft.

They pounced on Garrett Whitley, the ultra-athletic outfielder from New York State, with the 13th overall selection and followed it up with Chris Betts at the 52nd overall selection. Betts had seemingly fallen for signability concerns because the catcher from Southern California was considered a first-round talent. Provided that the Rays are able to sign Betts, the selection at 52 represents great value and would add to their enviable depth of minor league catching (Nick Ciuffo, Justin O’Conner, Luke Maile).

After their first two selections the Rays went very college heavy, but many of these selections are not cost-saving measures or low-upside talents. Instead, they went after Dallas Baptist’s fireballing righty Brandon Koch (4), Maryland’s breakout second baseman Brandon Lowe (3), a high-upside college bat that has battled injuries in Joe McCarthy (5), and a senior righthanded starting pitcher that enjoyed a velocity bump this season in Benton Moss (6). In the seventh round they selected Jacob Cronenworth, who many evaluators preferred as a pitcher, and announced him as a second baseman (where he also played for Michigan), although he has the talent and ability to return to the mound if things at the keystone don’t pan out.

Other strong performing college selections include Ian Gibaut (11) out of Tulane, David Olmedo-Barrera (12) who helped lead Cal State Fullerton back to Omaha, Tyler Brashears (14) from Hawaii, Danny De la Calle (9) from Florida State, and Kewby Meyer (37) from Nevada. Finally, although they didn’t select many preps after the first two rounds, late-round selections Devin Davis and Joey Bart are righthanded bats with some upside, that they could also choose to pursue.


Chicago Cubs

After a 2014 draft in which they surprised many by selecting Kyle Schwarber fourth overall, the Cubs again went with another advanced college bat with their first selection. Happ, like Schwarber, has an uncertain defensive home, with the Cubs announcing him as an outfielder. Many expected the Cubs to take a college pitcher, but Happ, like Schwarber last year may be one of the most underrated position players in the draft. Many people I’ve talked to feel as if Happ at ninth overall is good value, and like they did with Schwarber last season, the Cubs may be able to go a bit under slot and use the savings for some high school targets. They followed suit with their second pick, selecting another polished college outfielder in Donnie Dewees with the 47th overall pick.

As they did last year after locking up a few strong college performers, the Cubs turner their attention to a prep southpaw, this year electing to go with Illinois native Bryan Hudson. Hudson flew up draft boards this spring and offers a high upside with a mid-90s fastball and a very solid breaking ball. Similarly, the Cubs targeted another prep player, outfielder Darryl Wilson with their fourth-round pick. Wilson, a speedy speedy outfielder from Ohio is a Vanderbilt commit.

In the middle and later rounds the Cubs targeted (in my mind) a great mix of college seniors with a strong track record of performance (David Berg, Preston Morrison, Tyler Peitzmeier, Vimael Machin, Sutton Whiting), juniors with upside but may have underperformed this past season and could come cheaper than originally thought (Ryan Kellogg, Kyle Twomey, Jake Kelzer, Scott Effross, Ian Rice), and some late fliers on high-upside prep talent that they may be able to sign if other dominos fall (Alonzo Jones, Jared Padgett, Dominic DeRenzo). Overall, it appears to be a very balanced draft class, and one with both upside and a relatively high floor.


Boston Red Sox

Like the Cubs, I thought that the Red Sox did a quality job in balancing their selections well. They had a good mix of college and high school players. Their first two selections were big-time helium guys this spring, none more-so than their first-round pick in super sophomore, Arkansas outfielder Andrew Benintendi. Austin Rei, a catcher from the University of Washington, was their next pick at 81 overall and he also took a huge step forward this spring and showcased an improved feel at the plate and burgeoning power. While he’s not particularly toolsy, Tate Matheny is a polished college outfielder and represents solid value in the fourth round. Similarly, their fifth-round selection, California prep Jagger Rusconi is a very polished switch-hitter, but has some defensive question marks which may be why the club announced him as an outfielder instead of a shortstop of second baseman. Still, Rusconi has an advanced feel for the barrel for a high school player, and he’ll be an interesting player to watch develop.

Assuming that they’ll be able to sign him, Boston’s selection of Logan Allen in the eighth round represents very good value. Allen, who has continually performed well in big events, is a very polished high school southpaw who was regarded as more of a 3-4 round talent.

Boston selected a fair amount of college seniors, but Mitchell Gunsolous (10) and Bobby Poyner (14) are very legitimate pro prospects and both had very strong 2015 seasons for their college teams. The Red Sox also took some perceived fliers on high school players in the later rounds, but they’ve shown that they have the resources and ability to sign a number of such players in the later rounds (Devon Fisher in 2014, Nick Longhi in 2013, etc.). With that in mind, their chances of signing high-upside prep talents like Nick Hamilton (11) and Danny Reyes (39) in the rounds outside of the bonus pools may be better than one would expect.

Finally, the Red Sox also selected a couple of notable college players who have shown flashes of real ability but have been inconsistent in putting it all together. Marc Brakeman, lefthanded pitcher out of Stanford, and Kyri Washington, outfielder from Longwood, are two players with the upside to warrant top five-round consideration. However, their track record in college has been spotty. If the player development staff is able to help them reach their ceiling the 16th and 23rd round selections will reap tremendous benefits.


Houston Astros

The Astros certainly benefited, if one could say that after losing out on Brady Aiken, Jacob Nix, and Mac Marshall, with an extra pick in the first round. With two picks in the top five and a huge bonus pool, the Astros were able to approach the draft in any way they saw fit. They decided to take Alex Bregman with the second pick and prep outfielder Kyle Tucker at five. Leading up to the draft many had expected that the Astros would select Daz Cameron with one of their first two selections, but after their selection of Tucker he fell significantly because of rumored signing bonus demands. Luckily, the Astros with their aforementioned large bonus pool were the benefactors again, as they were able to snatch him up with the 37th overall pick and should be able to satisfy his asking price.

Their first three selections of arguably three of the top 10, if not the top six overall talents in the draft class represents an amazing coup and may help to heal any of the wounds still remaining from last year’s draft. However, the rest of their draft should not be overlooked either. Thomas Eshelman (2) has been perhaps the most consistent college starting pitcher over the last three seasons, and Riley Ferrell (3) and Trent Thorton (5) are two college relievers that have shown flashes of dominance at times over the course of their careers. Jeff Lunhow and co. are also well-renowned for taking factors like age and other demographic profiles into account, and their sixth-round selection, Nestor Muriel, an outfielder from Puerto Rico is the youngest player in the draft and doesn’t even turn 17 until next week. In the later rounds the Astros went after some talented prep pitchers in Patrick Sandoval, Cole Sands, and Luken Baker, who while appear headed for college, have high upside and may be willing to sign if the Astros can meet their figures. Finally, like many other teams the Astros were able to select a number of polished college players with solid performance in Garrett Stubbs (well-regarded for his receiving), Michael Freeman, Kevin Martir, Johnny Sewald and Bobby Wernes.


Colorado Rockies

The Rockies were extremely aggressive with their first six selections, which comprised rounds 1-4. Five of those six selections were high school players, with the most notable and high-profile picks being Brendan Rodgers and Mike Nikorak, Perfect Game’s top-ranked prep shortstop and righthanded pitcher, respectively. Their other selections in Tyler Nevin, Peter Lambert, and Javier Medina should not be overlooked, however, as each of the three offer big-time talent and impressive polish and feel for the game as teenagers. San Diego’s David Hill was the only college selection of the first four rounds, and he had a great junior season for the Toreros.

After their early flurry of prep selections, Colorado focused more on college options, with polished starting pitchers Parker French (5), Jack Wynkoop (6), Colin Welmon (8), and Trey Killian (9) comprising a solid crop of middle-round picks. The Rockies did aggressively pursue some other high school players with projection and upside in some of the later rounds with the highly projectable southpaw Michael Zimmerman (11), physical catcher Wyatt Cross (33), and bulldog righty Andy Pagnozzi (36) particularly catching the eye.


Other Quick Hits


St. Louis Cardinals

Is it any surprise to see the Cardinals on a draft list? Their selection of Nick Plummer broke the mold a bit, as they hadn’t selected a prep position player with their first pick in years (Pete Kozma, 2007). However, Plummer has been regarded as one of the more polished players in the batter’s box and scouts feel that he has a great chance to hit and be productive, even if he profiles in a corner outfield slot. Their subsequent two picks, Jake Woodford and Bryce Denton are athletic high school players that project very well. The Cardinals’ third- and fourth-round selections, Harrison Bader and Paul DeJong are productive college bats with some swing-and-miss but solid power potential from the right hand side. The Cardinals also targeted some higher upside prep products that would be huge gets if they were able to sign. Kep Brown is one of the more intriguing bats in the draft, but he was hampered by an Achillies injury this spring, and Cadyn Grenier, Kyle Monar, Matt Vierling, and Parker Kelly all offer a strong feel for the game and significant projection. Finally, although both players may go back to school to boost their draft stock, the Cardinals did well to draft TCU’s Mitchell Traver and Pacific’s Gio Brusa, players with upside but questions about injury history and inconsistent performance, respectively.


Texas Rangers

The Rangers have been known to be ultra-aggressive and they were certainly that over the past three days. Their first round selection of Dillon Tate was certainly not a reach by any stretch of the imagination as he performed extremely well this season and has big-time stuff, but he does have a limited track record as a starting pitcher. More aggressive and potentially high-risk, high-reward selections include Mike Matuella (3), Jake Lemoine (4), and Tyler Ferguson (6), righthanders with big time stuff but injury and command questions abound.


Atlanta Braves

Atlanta went extremely pitching heavy, with 13 of their first 16 picks being pitchers. They appear to have gotten great value with their first selection at No. 14 with their pick of Koby Allard, a top five talent if not for a back injury that kept him out of his spring season. They took some risk in A.J. Minter, who underwent Tommy John surgery this spring, but he’s a power pitcher from the left side and the Braves had their fair share of players undergo Tommy John surgery and rehab/return with the club (Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, etc.) They also seemed to focus on acquiring power arms in drafting Matt Withrow (brother of Chris) and Patrick Wiegel in the sixth and seventh rounds respectively.


Milwaukee Brewers

In Ray Montgomery’s first season as scouting director, after the unfortunate passing of the late Bruce Seid, the Brewers were very aggressive in snatching up big upside guys later in the draft. While the chances of signing players such as Justin Hooper, Donny Everett, Jon India, Charlie Donovan, Tristan Beck, and Nolan Kingham may be slim, if they are able to nab even one of that group it would be a big boost to the farm system. Their earlier selections were notable as well with it looking like Milwaukee was the benefactors of some players sliding down draft boards late. Nathan Kirby, Cody Ponce, and Demi Orimoloye all appear to be solid value picks at 40, 55, and 121 respectively, with Orimoloye in particular showing extremely high upside and the potential to be the first Nigerian-born player in MLB. Late snatching up of big upside guys, probably not signable; finding good value for guys that seemed to be higher, but fell down for whatever reasons.


Miami Marlins

The Marlins made a bit of a splash in selecting Josh Naylor with the 12th overall pick. While he has tremendous raw power and is a good athlete for his size, many expected Naylor to be selected in the 30-60 range. The rest of their draft wasn’t very flashy or littered with big-time names, but Brett Lilek, Cody Poteet, and Justin Jacome are all solid college arms from the West Coast that have the potential to help out a big league club.


Pittsburg Pirates

The Pirates, seemingly going with the best player available approach, selected three straight infielders with their top three picks, two of which profile best at third base. First-rounder Kevin Newman is a true shortstop while Ke’Bryan Hayes and Kevin Kramer both have played shortstop in their amateur careers but fit better at the hot corner, although Kramer can also play at second base. Interestingly, the Pirates only selected five high school players.



Scouts that Cleaned Up


New York Mets (Florida)

Even though most, if not all teams, currently divide the state of Florida among at least two area scouts, it still bears mentioning that the Mets drafted 10 players from the state of Florida. Four of their first five selections were from schools in Florida.


New York Yankees (Southern California)

Three of the Yankees’ top four picks were from the Southern California area, as James Kaprielian (UCLA), Kyle Holder (San Diego), and Drew Finley (Rancho Bernardo HS) likely made all the trips up and down I-5 worth it. The Southern California scout can also lay claim to three other solid college selections in Zach Zehner (Cal Poly), Garrett Mundell (Fresno State), and Mark Seyler (San Diego State).


Kansas City Royals (Midwest/Indiana)

I’m not sure how the Royals break down their regions or assign their area scouts, but as David Rawnsely pointed out, it’s safe to say that the Royals’ scout for Indiana enjoyed a career-defining night on Monday. Kansas City’s top two selections featured high-octane prep arms from Indiana, as Ashe Russell out of Cathedral High School in Indianapolis was selected 21st overall and Nolan Watson (from nearby Lawrence North High School) followed 12 picks later in the compensation round. To top it off Brian Bayliss from St. Joseph’s College in Rensselaer, Indiana was selected in the 18th round.