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College  | Story | 3/19/2015

Weekend Preview: Week 6

Patrick Ebert
Frankie Piliere
Jheremy Brown
Mike Rooney
Photo: Virginia Athletics

Shortstops in demand, available | National Notebook: March 17

There are two big series during the sixth weekend of the 2015 college baseball season that match top 25 opponents against one another as Florida State travels to Virginia and Arizona State heads north to face Oregon in Eugene. Virginia, who were swept by Virginia Tech last weekend, will look to get back on track after opening the season as the nation's No. 2 team against their first formidable opponent of the season.

Both Arizona State and Oregon have been facing stout competition all season long, and have had their ebbs and flows all season in the rankings as a result. Both series are detailed below.

Each of the teams ranked among the top 12 listed below faces among their best competition as the season, with No. 1 Florida traveling to Ole Miss in a key SEC series, while No. 2 Texas Christian hosts Oklahoma State, who opened the season in the top 25. The same is true for Arkansas as they host Louisiana State, while Auburn, Missouri, Alabama, Notre Dame and Wake Forest have enjoyed varying levels of success so far this season.

One series to keep a particular close eye on will occur in Atlanta as Georgia Tech hosts a somewhat scuffling No. 17 North Carolina team. A series win, or better yet, sweep, may help propel the 15-5 Yellow Jackets into the top 25 come Monday.

Stay tuned to Perfect Game over the weekend for the usual daily recaps, as Jheremy Brown will be in Santa Barbara, Calif. to take in Dillon Tate's Friday start against Texas-Arlington.

Top 25 in Action

Rk. Team Opponent Location
1 Florida at Ole Miss Oxford, MS
2 Texas Christian home vs. Oklahoma State Fort Worth, TX
3 Louisiana State at Arkansas Fayetteville, AR
4 Vanderbilt at Auburn Auburn, AL
5 South Carolina at Missouri Columbia, MO
6 Texas A&M at Alabama Hoover, AL
7 Virginia home vs. No. 11 Florida State Charlottesville, VA
8 Louisville at Notre Dame South Bend, IN
9 UCLA home vs. Utah Los Angeles, CA
10 Miami at Wake Forest Winston-Salem, NC
11 Florida State at No. 7 Virginia Charlottesville, VA
12 Oregon home vs. No. 20 Arizona State Eugene, OR
13 UC Santa Barbara home vs. Texas-Arlington Santa Barbara, CA
14 Texas Tech at Oklahoma Norman, OK
15 UCF home vs. Presbyterian Orlando, FL
16 Oregon State home vs. Washington State Corvallis, OR
17 North Carolina at Georgia Tech Atlanta, GA
18 Texas home vs. Kansas State Austin, Texas
19 Florida Atlantic home vs. Middle Tennessee Boca Raton, FL
20 Arizona State at No. 12 Oregon Eugene, OR
21 Houston at New Mexico Albuquerque, NM
22 Rice at Old Dominion Norfolk, VA
23 Southern California at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, CA
24 Indiana at Penn State University Park, PA
25 Mississippi State at Kentucky Lexington, KY



Marquee Matchup #1:

No. 11 Florida State at No. 7 Virginia

We say it a lot, but this is a statement for both Florida State and Virginia. They are teams that, at present, are trending in somewhat different directions, but wins for either squad would have major ramifications on how we view them on a national scale. The Seminoles rattled off 11 victories in a row before falling to Wake Forest last Friday. They did end up taking two of three in that series but then lost mid-week to the Florida Gators.

Virginia, on the other hand, has larger problems. The Cavaliers were dealt a shocking three-game sweep at Virginia Tech last weekend and have lost five of their last eights games overall. And, the problem is stemming from a lack of offense. Most around the sport had high expectations for the Virginia pitching staff, but the doubts some had about their offense have proven accurate thus far.

D.J. Stewart (Photo: Florida State)
The Cavaliers have advantages in this series, and they’re going to need Florida State tied up in close, low-scoring ballgames to execute those advantages. And, that begins with their ace, Nathan Kirby, who as always will give them a natural leg up on Friday night. The southpaw has been one of the most unhittable aces in the country through the first five weeks, posting a 0.83 ERA and striking out 43 batters in 32 2/3 innings of work. And, he has precisely the weapons to keep the power bats in the Florida State lineup relatively quiet.

The Seminoles have major power threats, like D.J. Stewart from the left side, and John Sansone from the right. Both hitters are also high on-base percentage threats and Kirby is going to need to challenge them. Sansone will likely see a steady diet of Kirby’s above average fading changeup on the outside part of the plate, and Stewart’s challenge will be to lay off the big breaking ball. Kirby’s 90-94 mph fastball against these power bats will also give us one of the weekends’ most intriguing matchups.

On Saturday, Virginia will hand the ball to standout sophomore, Connor Jones, who has also pitched like a true ace for the Cavaliers. Brandon Waddell, a former Friday night starter, rounds out the rotation on Sunday. This is a staff stacked with aces, and despite the struggling offense, it’s what will continue to make Virginia an extremely dangerous team.

Florida State’s staff enters the weekend in slightly more disarray, however. Friday night ace, Mike Compton will sit out this weekend with an abdominal strain. In his place, sophomore righty, Boomer Biegalski will take the ball. The Seminoles will send a pair of freshman to the hill on Saturday and Sunday in Drew Carlton and Cobi Johnson. Both young pitchers are extremely talented, but have struggled in the early going. Johnson enters the weekend with a 7.06 ERA and Carlton has posted a 6.00.

This could be an opportunity for Virginia, in other words, to right the ship against a team not quite at full strength. And they will look for standout freshman Pavin Smith and sophomore Matt Thaiss to continue to pace the offense. The Cavaliers have hit 16 home runs this season, and that pair has accounted for nine of them.



Marquee Matchup #2:

No. 20 Arizona State at No. 12 Oregon

The Oregon Ducks host Arizona State this weekend in a battle of two ranked teams who have shown flashes of being Omaha-caliber clubs. The starting pitching matchups are themed in nature and should be outstanding.

Friday will feature two righthanded upstarts in Oregon's Conor Harber and Arizona State's Seth Martinez. Harber will run his fastball into the low-90s with a true 12-to-6 breaking ball. Martinez protects his high-80s fastball with an above average slider and he fearlessly attacks the strike zone. Neither Harber nor Martinez projected to be weekend starters in the preseason and yet both of them have pitched their way into the Friday night role.
David Peterson (Photo: Eric Evans)

The Saturday game features two big-bodied lefthanders known more for their current pitchability than their projection. Freshman David Peterson of Oregon goes 6-foot-6 and he has stepped right into the weekend rotation. Peterson is the rare combination of present day strike thrower who has first round upside. The Sun Devils' Ryan Kellogg, who is 6-foot-5, will show 91 mph with his fastball but he is more effective when it ticks down into the 85-88 mph range and he emphasizes his above average command of a four-pitch mix.

Sunday will officially be Scout Day in Eugene as Cole Irvin and Brett Lilek face off. Irvin has made all five of his starts this year and continues to increase his pitch count as he works back from Tommy John surgery. Lilek came into the year as a potential first round pick but his performance has been underwhelming. He has shown elite velocity in most of his starts, touching 94 mph, and Tracy Smith is hoping the Sunday role will help Lilek to relax and regain his top form.

This weekend will be Arizona State's first road games and PK Park is one of the toughest hitting environments in the country. This will be a huge contrast to Phoenix Municipal Stadium which plays very offensive. Even though the Sun Devils have a veteran lineup, this weekend poses a big challenge for their hitters.

An additional matchup of interest here will be the Ducks' inside game versus the Sun Devils' inexperienced corner infielders. David Greer has swung the bat well since taking over at third base for Arizona State and R.J. Ybarra and Joey Bielek both upgrade the Sun Devil offense at first base. However, all three of these players represent a significant trade off of defense for offense. Oregon's bunting game will challenge these three as their Ducks are fifth in country with 26 sacrifice bunts this year.

Both bullpens offer high velocity and should factor into the series. Garrett Cleavinger of Oregon has touched 95 mph over the last two weekends and converted catcher Josh Graham may be the best story of the Ducks' young season. Graham has hit 97 mph out of the bullpen and gives Oregon much needed depth at the back of their bullpen. ASU's Ryan Burr and Hever Bueno are big prospects who attack hitters with mid- to upper-90s fastballs. Look for Arizona State to utilize two-way infielder Jordan Aboites on the mound in this series as he may be the best fielding pitcher in the country. Aboites could be an excellent counter to Oregon's inside game.

Oregon comes into this series needing to regain momentum. After climbing into the Top 10, the Ducks have now lost four of their last five games. Arizona State, on the other hand, is fresh off of an outstanding series win over Oregon State. The Sun Devils lost the Friday game to the Beavers but won the series with come-from-behind victories on both Saturday and Sunday.



Impact Matchup:

Andrew Suarez (Miami) vs. Nate Mondou and Will Craig (Wake Forest)

Though several key matchups will occur over the weekend as we continue diving into conference play, the one between Miami’s ace lefthander Andrew Suarez and Wake’s sensational sophomores Nate Mondou and Will Craig is a particularly intriguing one. Last Sunday was Suarez’s first start since opening weekend, returning from an oblique strain suffered in his pre-game bullpen at the University of Florida, and he provided an instant shot in the arm for the Canes.
Andrew Suarez (Photo: Richard Lewis / Miami Athletics)
Coming back and feeling stronger than ever, Suarez was magnificent in his return, throwing six shutout innings and simply dominated with his stuff, helping Miami complete the series sweep of N.C. State. The big thing that the redshirt junior lefty has going for him, and he’ll need to use this weekend against Wake’s two-headed monster, is his experience and knowledge on the mound.

Take a look at the numbers Craig and Mondou have put up so far and you’ll think they’re playing in a video game; Craig is slashing an unearthly .432/.515/.815 with ten doubles, seven home runs and 33 RBI while Mondou is working with a .358/.413/.642 triple-slash with two triples, five home runs and 29 RBI. And it’s not like they have had limited at-bats or facing underwhelming competition as they’re the only two Demon Deacons to have played all 22 game this spring.

The matchup of power stuff from Suarez and the advanced approach from the sophomores should be an entertaining one. Suarez shows big command on the mound, evidenced by no walks in his return and had all of his pitches working for him last week. Working his fastball in the 91-94 mph early before settling in at 90-93, Suarez mixed in both his slider and curveball, something he doesn’t often do as he sticks to his slider mostly. Everything was working though and he used his full arsenal helped keep hitters off balance, striking out seven while allowing just three hits.

One reason for the nonstop success for both Mondou and Craig is their patience at the plate and their willingness to draw walks. They make the pitcher work and earn the out against either, never giving an at-bat away and are always a threat on any given pitch. They aren’t just hunting the fastball either. Every team gets reports, reads the stats, watches video etc., so they pitch carefully and mix frequently, throwing the kitchen sink at them, yet neither seem to mind and the results back that up.

While both Craig and Mondou are power threats for Wake, keep an eye on the middle of the Miami order too as David Thompson seems to be catching fire, coming off a two-home run performance mid-week against Army.



National Notes:

• The rich keep getting richer it seems in Fort Worth as Texas Christian took a pair of mid-week games against UT Pan American. While the offense exploded for 11 runs on Wednesday, their pitching depth continues to be their most defining asset, as Brian Howard and Tyler Alexander provided impressive starts. Howard, a 6-foot-9 righthander, used 56 pitches to work the first four innings in Tuesday's game, a 5-0 combined shutout, allowing only two runs while striking out four. Alexander, who opened the season as the Horned Frogs' Saturday starter, went seven strong innings Wednesday, striking out nine without allowing a walk. Five different pitchers were used out of the bullpen in the two games, including four on Tuesday to preserve the shutout.

• No. 1 Florida took a mid-week game over No. 11 Florida State 14-8 to continue their in-state rivalry. The Seminoles were the Gators fourth formidable mid-week foe so far during the 2015 season, as Florida has also played South Florida, No. 19 Florida Atlantic and No. 15 UCF, going 4-1 in those games. The Gators sent six relievers to the mound after starter Eric Hanhold gave up five earned runs in the first 2 1/3 innings, giving up only 3 runs (one earned) the rest of the way. As you may imagine given the score, several players had big days at the plate, and while Harrison Bader “only” went 1-for-3, he enjoyed another productive day. Bader set the tempo early, hitting an RBI triple in the first while adding an RBI groundout and a sac fly later in the game to give him three RBI on the day and 27 for the year.

• There have been several pitchers that are draft eligible in 2016 that have been positive strides early in the season, not including those that have been frequently discussed here at Perfet Game. Wahsington State closer Ian Hamilton has peaked in the upper-90s, sitting at 94-96, and has posted a 1.59 ERA and recorded six savees in 10 games for the Cougars. Winthrop lefty Matt Crohan could be putting himself in a position as a legitimate first-rounder in 2016 by touching as high as 96-97 and working in the mid-90s to go along with a mid-80s slider with solid overall results (2-1, 2.35 ERA in five starts, 29-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 23 innings). Bailey Clark (2-1, 1.64 ERA in 33 innings) has given Duke a second power arm to contend with in addition to Michael Matuella, throwing consistently in the 91-94 mph range with a power mid-80s slider of his own. All of these pitchers continue to be piled on a list of what looks to be a ridiculously deep class for the 2016 draft at both the college and high school levels.
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