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Last year's Phillies list
The Top Ten
- SS J.P. Crawford
- RHP Aaron Nola
- 1B/ 3B Maikel Franco
- LHP Yoel Mecias
- LHP Jesse Biddle
- C Deivi Grullon
- RF Kelly Dugan
- CF Carlos Tocci
- LHP Elniery Garcia
- OF Dylan Cozens
1. J.P. Crawford
Position: SS
DOB: 01/11/1995
Height/Weight: 6’2” 180 lbs
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2013 draft, Lakewood HS (Lakewood, CA)
Previous Ranking: #3 (Org), Just Missed the Cut (101)
2014 Stats: .275/.352/.407 at High-A Clearwater (63 games), .295/.398/.405 at Low-A Lakewood (60 games)
The Tools: 5+ potential hit; 6 potential glove; 5+ arm; 6 run
What Happened in 2014: Crawford was all systems go in his full-season debut, hitting .285 in 123 games, including spending half the year in High-A as a 19-year-old.
Strengths: Smooth and agile body actions; athletic player; arm for left side of the infield; instincts for position; can range well to both right and left; soft glove; plus run; loose, quick hands enable barrel control; solid-average bat speed; ability to stay inside of ball.
Weaknesses: In the early stages of learning the ins and outs of being a pro and slowing the game down; engagement in field can drift; glove technique needs work; power likely to play to fringe-average at best; will presently lunge at spin; needs to continue to add strength to handle rigors of long season.
Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player
Realistic Role: 5; major-league regular
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; yet to reach upper levels; gap between present and future.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: At first glance, Crawford’s scouting report reads like a player who’s a good bit more valuable in real life than fantasy, but similar to Francisco Lindor (in theory, not practice), this undersells the fantasy potential here. Crawford’s power can play up to the mid-teens in Philadelphia and with 20-plus steal potential at an extremely tough fantasy position, he’s someone to be excited about in our world as well.
The Year Ahead: Crawford will likely return to High-A for further experience before getting a taste of Double-A at some point this season. The soon-to-be 20-year-old will dictate his own pace, though. Crawford’s swing is geared toward high contact, which bodes well for his hit tool projection, but don’t expect high power output to be a large part of the ultimate game. Some sources suggested the shortstop might experience some growing pains as he continues to learn to slow the game down against the rising competition. There are still plenty of rough edges to polish in Crawford’s game, making what he could look like in his mid-20s quite different than the current product. This will be a developmental journey, with plenty of lead time before reaching peak totals, but all the ingredients are here to round into a first-division talent with continued repetition of his overall game.
Major league ETA: 2017
2. Aaron Nola
Position: RHP
DOB: 06/04/1993
Height/Weight: 6’1” 195 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2014 draft, Louisiana State University (Baton Rouge, LA)
Previous Ranking: NA
2014 Stats: 2.62 ERA (24 IP, 25 H, 15 K, 5 BB) at Double-A Reading, 3.16 ERA (31.1 IP, 24 H, 30 K, 5 BB) at High-A Clearwater
The Tools: 6 FB; 6 potential CB; 5+ potential CH
What Happened in 2014: Nola was drafted seventh overall, and then proceeded to throw 55 1/3 professional innings, including five starts at Double-A.
Strengths: Easy delivery; repeatable mechanics; low-90s fastball displays strong movement; can reach back for more; creates deception via changing angles on hitters; feel for turning over change; curve flashes deep break and tight rotation; plus-to-better command of arsenal; understands how to execute craft; comes after hitters.
Weaknesses: Doesn’t have prototypical size; can wrap and have trouble staying on top of curveball; becomes loose and loopy; needs to throw changeup more in sequences; fastball is flat when above middle of the thighs; needs one of the secondary offerings to emerge as consistent bat-misser; more polish than projection.
Overall Future Potential: High 5; no. 3 starter
Realistic Role: 5; no. 4 starter
Risk Factor/Injury History: Low risk; reached upper levels; limited experience against advanced pro bats.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Nola is much more about safety than upside in fantasy leagues as he currently projects to be a helpful starter in all four categories, who can rack up enough innings to be a roto compiler—his aggressiveness and control can lead to 220 innings a year down the road. Even if he tops out, Nola is unlikely to push past solid SP3 status.
The Year Ahead: Nola’s stuff is likely to be advanced past minor-league hitters and ready for the bigs this season. The right-hander brings a polished three-pitch arsenal, with strong command and solid deception via a low three-quarters delivery. Nola does need at least one of his secondary offerings to fully emerge to complement his fastball against high-quality hitters. There are concerns that if neither the curve nor change reach potential, batters will sit on his heater, which is around the plate often. The concerns are somewhat mitigated by Nola’s advanced mindset, but it’s something to keep on the radar. The ceiling isn’t enormous, but it’s likely he develops into a quality middle-of-the-rotation arm for a number of years with a bit more development going forward.
Major league ETA: 2015
3. Maikel Franco
Position: 1B/3B
DOB: 08/26/1992
Height/Weight: 6’1” 180 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: International Free Agent, 2010, Dominican Republic
Previous Ranking: #1 (Org), #52 (Top 101)
2014 Stats: .194/.212/.226 at major league level (9 games), .257/.299/.428 at Triple-A Lehigh Valley (133 games)
The Tools: 5+ potential hit; 6+ potential power; 6+ arm; 5 glove
What Happened in 2014: Franco experienced resistance out of the gate in his jump to Triple-A, but came on strong in the second half of the year, culminating in a call-up to The Show.
Strengths: Excellent fastball hitter; explosive hands; lightning-quick swing; feel for barreling the ball up with backspin; thunder in the stick; knows how to create lift; can adjust swing in zone; plenty of arm for left side of infield; soft hands and glove.
Weaknesses: Extremely aggressive approach; will guess, leading to misses or weak contact against soft stuff; gets out in front of ball often—creates hole with breaking stuff away; despite excellent hand-eye and bat speed, hit tool may end up playing down due to approach; lacks quick reactions and instincts at hot corner.
Overall Future Potential: High 5; solid-average regular
Realistic Role: 5; major-league regular
Risk Factor/Injury History: Low risk; achieved major-league level; concerns with exploitable aggressiveness and glove
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Some players are just built for standard 5x5 roto leagues, and Franco is one of them. Franco’s third base eligibility will linger for longer than his skill or playing time at the hot corner, but even if that passes, he could hit .275 with 25+ homers and more RBI than you’d expect, due to his free-swinging nature. He’s still the top fantasy prospect in this system.
The Year Ahead: While Franco might end up starting the year in Triple-A for another tour of duty, the 22-year-old is in line to get an extended chance to show what he can do in the majors at some point this season. Franco is a talented hitter, with top-shelf bat speed and the power to crack 25-plus bombs. While the early Triple-A struggles proved to be a transition period, the overzealousness in the box casts some doubts as to whether the hit tool will translate consistently, possibly leading to extended valleys at the highest level. If there were stronger feeling about his ability to stick at the hot corner, the role would play up a little, but it’s still a potential regular at first who can hit down a bit in the order with some pop.
Major league ETA: Made debut in 2014
4. Yoel Mecias
Position: LHP
DOB: 10/11/1993
Height/Weight: 6’2” 160 lbs
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: International Free Agent, 2010, Venezuela
Previous Ranking: #9 (Org)
2014 Stats: 3.21 ERA (33.2 IP, 29 H, 23 K, 9 BB) at Low-A Lakewood, 4.76 ERA (17 IP, 19 H, 10 K, 8 BB) at complex level GCL
The Tools: 6 potential FB; 5 potential SL; 6+ potential CH
What Happened in 2014: Mecias returned to the mound after Tommy John surgery in 2013 to log 50 2/3 innings, while also showing that his stuff is coming back to pre-surgery form.
Strengths: Loose arm; frame to continue filling out and add strength; balanced delivery; late life to fastball; works 89- 92, with potential to sit higher; can touch up to 95; feel for changeup; shows arm-side fade and fastball guise; more grow in offering; flashes ability to snap tight slider; solid foundation of raw pitching tools to work with.
Weaknesses: Immature body; must improve strength levels to handle grind of professional season year in and year out; learning how to approach pitching; some delivery cleanup needed to enhance command; presently below average; tends to spin slider with more slurvy than true break; lacks hard bite.
Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 3 starter
Realistic Role: 5; no. 4 starter
Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; TJ on resume; limited professional experience.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Once you get beyond the top-50 fantasy pitching prospects or so, the sound strategy is often grabbing guys who could see short-term value bursts and then looking to package them in a trade immediately. With a strong change and the FSL in his purview, Mecias is a strong choice for the strategy.
The Year Ahead: This may seem a little aggressive with Mecias considering he still isn’t too far into his return from surgery and has fairly limited professional experience, but this is a prospect with an excellent foundation, who is likely to start turning some heads. Both the fastball and changeup show the makings of plus pitches at the left-hander’s disposal, with the change having the most room for growth. With added strength to Mecias’ lanky frame, the heater also has a good chance to tick up in velocity. The long pole is the slider, which needs tightening and to emerge as a legit piece of the arsenal for the projection to come into full focus. Look for Mecias to further sharpen his skills in High-A this year, and for the whispers of a potential future mid-rotational starter to get louder.
Major league ETA: 2017
5. Jesse Biddle
Position: LHP
DOB: 10/22/1991
Height/Weight: 6’5” 220 lbs
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2010 draft, Germantown Friends HS (Philadelphia, PA)
Previous Ranking: #2 (Org), #94 (Top 101)
2014 Stats: 5.03 ERA (82.1 IP, 78 H, 80 K, 44 BB) at Double-A Reading, .90 ERA (10 IP, 3 H, 9 K, 6 BB) at High-A Clearwater
The Tools: 5+ FB; 5+ potential CH; 5 CB
What Happened in 2014: In a repeat of Double-A, the wheels suddenly fell off the tracks for Biddle during a disastrous June stretch where the left-hander posted a 12.64 ERA over 4 starts that heavily contributed to an ugly overall season line.
Strengths: Smooth, fluid delivery; size and strength to handle rigors of starting; able to throw 89-92 heater downhill; shows feel for creating fade with change—potential for more growth; loose wrist when throwing both curve and change; depth and teeth to curve when throwing from same spot as fastball; athletic on mound.
Weaknesses: Inconsistent fastball command; struggles to finish pitch across the plate (glove side); runs into stretches of wavering release point—stuff becomes bland; changeup will float up in zone; slow and loopy break (69-74) to curve allows good hitters to wait; up-and-down confidence shows in body language on the mound.
Overall Future Potential: High 5; no. 3/4 starter
Realistic Role: 5; no. 4 starter
Risk Factor/Injury History: Low risk; upper-minors experience; concerns about confidence level and ability to manage expectations.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: While there’s still a modicum of name value left here, Biddle is not someone who should be relied upon in anything by deep mixed and NL-only formats. A left-hander without an out pitch in a ballpark that significantly aids right-handed power is not a recipe for fantasy value.
The Year Ahead: Biddle will look to use his late-season success as a stepping stone into this coming season. The assignment could be a third stint in Double-A or a bump up to the next level. There have always been questions centering on the left-hander’s fastball command and lack of a true plus pitch. Can the command grow enough to allow him to fulfill a role near the back of a rotation? Well, that’s even more muddied now, as some concerns over Biddle’s ability to manage the peaks and valleys of the game have crept in. The mental side of the game can always be interesting as both good and bad results tend to snowball. It’s not time to bury Biddle, but the stock here has definitely dropped and it’ll be a pivotal season.
Major league ETA: 2015