In the baseball draft’s 45-year history, the first pick overall has never been a high-school righthander or a junior-college player.
One of those happenstances is almost certain to change this year as the top-two ranked players are College of Southern Nevada catcher Bryce Harper and Texas prep righthander Jameson Taillon. With the 2010 draft less than a month away, it has become almost a given that Harper is the logical choice of the Washington Nationals, but Taillon hasn’t been eliminated from the picture.
Harper is a player who needs no introduction. He is the highly-publicized teen prodigy who burst onto the mainstream athletic scene as a Las Vegas high-school sophomore last spring, when he hit .626-14-55 with 36 stolen bases, and was the subject of a cover story in Sports Illustrated. He subsequently engineered a draft first by electing to enroll at nearby CSN in the fall, effectively making himself eligible for the 2010 draft a year ahead of schedule.
The 6-foot-7, 230-pound Taillon is merely the latest in a line of Texas fireballing righthanded pitchers from the draft era that includes the likes of Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens and Kerry Wood, all of whom became the most celebrated arms in their respective draft classes, but were never a No. 1 pick overall – or really ever came close.
The player once given the best chance of challenging Harper and Taillon for the No. 1 spot, and effectively preventing draft history from occurring, is Louisiana State righthander Anthony Ranaudo, but that was before he pulled up lame in March with a tender elbow and pitched poorly in several outings upon his return. He may be hard-pressed now to even be among the first 10 picks.
Coincidentally, Ranaudo represents the most popular demographic among previous No. 1 selections. On 10 such occurrences – most recently as 2009, when the Washington Nationals had the first selection and took San Diego State’s Stephen Strasburg – the top pick has been a college righthander. A high-school shortstop and high-school outfielder have gone No. 1 on seven previous occasions, and even a prep catcher holds that distinction four times. But never a high-school righthander. Or a juco player.
Harper or Taillon could end that drought, although the Nationals will have final say on the matter. By finishing with the worst record in the big leagues in each of the last two years, Washington has earned the dubious honor of picking first again, a feat that only the 2007-08 Tampa Bay Rays have experienced.
Unlike a year ago, when Strasburg was a slam-dunk choice to go No. 1 for months leading up to the draft, the Nationals’ options appeared more varied this time, with as many as eight to 10 players still on their preferred list in early April, most notably Harper and Taillon. But that was before Harper thoroughly separated himself from the pack with a brilliant performance this season, which would have been noteworthy by any standard for a junior-college player, but eye-popping for a 17-year-old freshman.
Harper finished the regular season by hitting .417-23-68 with a .917 slugging average in 55 games. All but one CSN game was played with wood. With his 23 homers, Harper shattered the old single-season school record of 12, set in 2001, with aluminum. He already had topped CSN’s 2009 team total of 19, and led the Scenic West Conference in almost every important offensive category. Additionally, he has stolen 16 bases in 20 attempts, an impressive feat for a catcher.
Industry sources confirmed Washington has all but settled on Harper as the No. 1 pick. On talent, he is the top prospect in this year’s draft pool by a wide margin. The lone obstacle to his going first would appear to be his price tag.
Strasburg was perceived as a once-in-a-generation talent a year ago, and he ended up signing with the Nationals at the Aug. 17 deadline for a bonus of $7.5 million with total guaranteed money of $15.107 million, easily a draft record.
Harper, a once-in-a-generation talent in his own right, could end up topping that total, and then some. Much like Strasburg, Harper is being represented in negotiations by agent Scott Boras, and it’s obvious that Harper has bargaining power unlike few players in draft history, and Boras is certain to leverage his unique situation to the fullest. On the chance that he might not sign, Harper could return to junior college as an 18-year-old sophomore and still have the luxury in 2011 of having four-year college options at his disposal.
Not even Strasburg was in such an enviable position, although Strasburg was much farther along the development process than Harper is, and is on the verge of being called up by the Nationals after a handful of brilliant minor-league starts.
If pre-draft hype means anything, the early money is clearly on Harper, much as it was a year ago with Strasburg.
Because of his sheer domination at San Diego State, Strasburg, 21, earned more acclaim than any No. 1 pick in history, and yet might have gotten less fanfare than Harper has to date. An exceptional young talent, Harper’s raw tools may be the most advanced for a player his age than any U.S.-developed player in the draft era. Yet there’s no degree of certainty that the Nationals will settle on him, like they did with Strasburg.
For all practical purposes, Harper has been scouted this spring as if he was a high-school player – his age suggests so, if not his standing in school. And in that sense, recent draft history may weigh heavily in Harper’s favor for going No. 1.
On the four previous occasions that a high-school catcher was the No. 1 pick in the draft, the first three such selections – Steve Chilcott in 1966, Mike Ivie in 1970 and Danny Goodwin in 1971 – somewhat amazingly combined to catch just nine games in the big leagues (all by Ivie). Goodwin was even the No. 1 pick twice, in 1971 (out of high school) and 1975 (out of Southern University) and still never went behind the plate even once.
The fourth catcher in that group has a little better track record. He is none other than Joe Mauer, merely the winner of three American League batting championships since being selected No. 1 in 2001. The comparisons between Mauer and Harper are somewhat eerie.
Like the 6-foot-4, 215-pound Mauer, the 6-3, 215-pound Harper swings from the left side. By most accounts, Harper is more advanced in most facets of his game than Mauer was at the same stage of development, though Mauer was disadvantaged by growing up in a northern climate and dividing his time in high school between several sports. Obviously, Mauer has made enormous strides in fulfilling his potential since being drafted, that assertion underscored by his recent eight-year, $184 million contract.
There’s little question, though, that Harper has much more present power than Mauer did at a comparable stage of development, and his speed and arm strength are considered superior, too.
Even though Harper should technically be just a high-school junior this spring, his massive raw power has been well documented through the years. Scouts, however, openly said he would need to make some adjustments in his approach at the plate after he struggled last summer against faster competition. But he has not only held his own as a freshman at Southern Nevada, using wood every day and facing superior pitching, he has thrived in all phases of his game. He has been particularly adept in his handling of a pitching staff that has a number of arms with high-quality stuff.
“He’s made great strides since he’s been here,” said a scout, who has tracked Harper’s every move. “He’s done a great job handling all the pressure. He’s improved in many areas of his game, the biggest improvement coming in what the pitcher gives him and not trying to do too much. His biggest adjustment has been seeing off-speed pitches in fastball counts. It happens most often on a 3-1 count and first base open.
“He has really improved his defense. In the past, Bryce had a tendency to flinch when the hitter would swing at a pitch, especially when the pitch was inside on the hitter. His receiving is much improved and his arm is getting shorter on his throwing motion.”
In particular, Harper has had to deal with the immense pressure that has been thrust on him by his unique situation. He has often played with upwards of 50 or 60 scouts at his games, some of whom were openly cynical – early on, at least – over his decision and motivation to sidestep the traditional draft process, all in the hope of reaping millions this summer. He’s proven a lot of people wrong.
CSN coach Tim Chambers has handled Harper with a deft touch, and praised his student for the way he has handled himself on the field over the course of the 2010 season. “He’s really matured,” Chambers said. “He’s handled a challenging situation very well. His talent is obvious, but the area that has impressed me most is he is no longer showing as much emotion on the field any more. He has learned to take the game in stride much better.”
Some observers believed that a young and inexperienced Harper was put in a position to fail with his bold move, but a potentially-difficult situation has been diffused through any number of factors – his opportunity to continue to live at home; the protective role that Chambers, a family friend, and the CSN coaches have played; the presence on the CSN roster of his brother Bryan (a potential fifth- to eighth-rounder); and the deflection of attention that a number of other top prospects on the CSN roster has provided.
It has enabled Harper to focus on playing baseball, and he has thrived on the field in the sheltered environment.
As talented as Harper is, the Nationals are expected to keep their options open, particularly since Harper is being advised by Boras.
If Harper’s ties to Boras or other extenuating circumstances cause the Nationals to go in another direction, the logical alternative would be Taillon, although University of Mississippi lefthander Drew Pomeranz, the NCAA Division I leader in strikeouts, has emerged as a third option. By most accounts, those are the top three prospects in this year’s draft.
But in all probability, the 2010 draft will be remembered as the one that bucked history and saw a player from a new demographic become the No. 1 pick – whether it’s a junior-college player or prep righthander.