PG 64: Projecting the NCAA field

College : : Story
Kendall Rogers        
Published: Wednesday, April 27, 2011

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PREMIUM ANALYSIS: Inside the postseason projections

Virginia and South Carolina both are coming off successful weeks. And while the Gamecocks continue to have the edge in the weekly Perfect Game Top 25, the Cavaliers once again have the edge in our postseason projections, a snapshot of the field we believe the NCAA Selection Committee would put together if the season ended today.

The Cavaliers continue to have an impressive resume. They have an RPI of 1 with a fantastic 40-4 record. They're also 10-3 vs. RPI Top 25, 13-4 vs. RPI Top 50 and 27-4 vs. RPI Top 100.

Other national seeds this week include (in order), South Carolina, Florida, Oregon State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Arizona State and Georgia Tech. Other teams considered for national seeds includes North Carolina, Florida State and Southern Mississippi.

South Carolina has an RPI of 5 and is 8-4 vs. RPI Top 25, 10-5 vs. RPI Top 50 and 19-6 vs. RPI Top 100, Florida has an RPI of 2 and is 7-6 vs. RPI Top 25, 16-9 vs. RPI Top 50 and 26-10 vs. RPI Top 100, Oregon State has an RPI of 10 and is 6-2 vs. RPI Top 25, 10-4 vs. RPI Top 50 and 20-6 vs. RPI Top 100, Texas A&M has an RPI of 6 and is 6-3 vs. RPI Top 25, 14-8 vs. RPI Top 50 and 21-11 vs. RPI Top 100, Vanderbilt has an RPI of 4 and is 8-4 vs. RPI Top 25, 16-5 vs. RPI Top 50 and 19-5 vs. RPI Top 100, Arizona State has an RPI of 3 and is 5-5 vs. RPI Top 25, 15-6 vs. RPI Top 50 and 22-8 vs. RPI Top 100 and Georgia Tech has an RPI of 7 and is 6-3 vs. RPI Top 25, 11-4 vs. RPI Top 50 and 24-11 vs. RPI Top 100.

In addition to the national seeds, other NCAA Regional hosts include North Carolina, Florida, Cal State Fullerton, Southern Mississippi, Fresno State, Texas, Stetson and Oklahoma. Other programs considered for host sites include Miami, Arkansas, Rice, Oklahoma State and TCU, with Rice leading the way.

Perfect Game's NCAA postseason projections are released every Wednesday leading up to Selection Monday, which is Monday, May 30.

Host: Virginia
1. Virginia* (1)
4. Navy*
2. Mississippi State
3. Kent State*
Host: Stetson
1. Stetson*
4. Purdue*
2. Miami
3. Florida Atlantic
Host: South Carolina
1. South Carolina* (2)
4. Valparaiso*
2. N.C. State
3. Coastal Carolina*
Host: Florida State
1. Florida State
4. Beth-Cookman*

2. Auburn
3. Central Florida
Host: Florida
1. Florida (3)
4. Yale*
2. Clemson
3. Jacksonville
Host: North Carolina
1. North Carolina
4. Charlotte*
2. East Carolina
3. Elon
Host: Oregon State
1. Oregon State* (4)
4. South Dakota St.*
2. Oklahoma State
3. St. John's
Host: Cal State Fullerton
1. CS Fullerton*
4. Stony Brook*
3. Kansas State
Host: Texas A&M
1. Texas A&M* (5)
4. Monmouth*
2. Texas State
3. Alabama
Host: Southern Mississippi
1. Southern Miss*
4. Southern*
2. Troy*
3. Mississippi
Host: Vanderbilt
1. Vanderbilt (6)
4. Austin Peay*
2. Stanford
3. UAB
Host: Oklahoma
1. Oklahoma
4. Missouri State*
2. TCU*
3. SE Louisiana
Host: Arizona State
1. Arizona State (7)
4. Delaware*
2. Georgia
3. UC Irvine
Host: Fresno State
1. Fresno State*
4. San Francisco*
2. California
3. Baylor
Host: Georgia Tech
1. Georgia Tech (8)
4. Manhattan*
2. Arkansas
3. Ga. Southern*
Host: Texas
1. Texas
4. Stephen F. Austin*
2. Rice
3. Connecticut*
Last six: Jacksonville, SE Louisiana, Elon, Baylor, Florida Atlantic, UC Irvine
Next 10: Arizona, Florida International, Cal State Bakersfield, Cal Poly, Memphis, Creighton, Louisiana-Lafayette, College of Charleston, Tulane, Gonzaga

Projected national seeds in parentheses.
*—Projected winner of an automatic bid.
Possible super regional matchups are listed side-by-side
Stony Brook Charlotte
Virginia Stetson
Connecticut Coastal Carolina
Purdue Texas A&M
Cal State Fullerton Delaware
Southern Mississippi Valparaiso
Yale Manhattan
Kent State Bethune-Cookman
Creighton TCU
Monmouth Austin Peay
Oregon State Navy
South Carolina Georgia Southern
Stephen F. Austin South Dakota State
Troy Southern
Fresno State San Francisco
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