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Draft  | Follow List | 5/28/2010

ARKANSAS

2010 FOLLOW LIST
 
COMPILED by DAVID RAWNSLEY
 
STATE OVERVIEW
Arkansas was largely an overlooked state in 2009 as far as the draft went, as only two players were picked in the top 10 rounds. The top prospect, University of Arkansas lefthander Dallas Keuchel, lasted until the seventh round.
 
It was readily evident then, especially as the Razorbacks made a strong run in the 2009 College World Series with a team dominated by freshmen and sophomores, that 2010 would be a much different story. And that has proven out as Arkansas has two legitimate first-round candidates and two more projected to go in the second or third rounds. No other college team in the country can boast such firepower.
 
Sophomore-eligible third baseman Zach Cox is a potential top-10 pick overall, based on his mature lefthanded bat and above-average throwing arm. He hit .432-8-47 this year and may be the most projectable college hitter in the country.
 
Junior Brett Eibner has such a vast array of tools that he could be picked in the first round, as either a pitcher or hitter/outfielder. A majority of teams prefer him on the mound, but Eibner has openly stated he wants to turn pro as a hitter, with pitching as a backup plan. That could marginally impact his draft status.
 
Eibner has explosive power in both his righthanded arm and righthanded bat. He routinely reached the mid-90s this spring while going 3-4, 4.47 with 52 strikeouts in 54 innings. As a hitter, he went deep a team-high 18 times (several tape-measure shots), while hitting .332 with 61 RBIs.
 
Ironically, Cox was considered a better pitching prospect than hitter when he attended a Kentucky high school and pitched extensively as a freshman at Arkansas, before coming on strong as a hitter and eventually giving up pitching this spring.
 
Cox is eligible for this year’s draft as a sophomore because he has already turned 21. A second Razorback player, ace lefthander Drew Smyly, is also eligible as a sophomore. With a relatively weak crop of lefthanded pitching prospects in this year’s draft, he could also sneak into the first-round/supplemental-area consideration, though second round is more realistic.
 
Razorbacks first baseman Andy Wilkins was also viewed as a strong candidate in the supplemental/second-round area because of the paucity of power bats, but that was before he slumped badly in the second half of the 2010 season. He was hitting .278-13-62 through the regular season and his status is a little more unsettled now.
 
Those four players are clearly the cream of the crop in the state this year, but at least one other player, Southern Arkansas righthander Hayden Simpson, will factor into the top 10 rounds, with a couple of quality senior-sign types having a chance to sneak into the top 10 rounds as well.
 
With one of the premier campus athletic facilities in the country (including baseball) and a rich and successful baseball history, the University of Arkansas is easily able to attract the best high-school talent in the state and often lands its share of premium talent from neighboring states. Cox (Kentucky), Eibner (Texas) and Wilkins (Oklahoma) were all significant prospects in their respective states in high school, and were all unsigned draft picks. Eibner was a fourth-round selection of his hometown Houston Astros in 2007, and Cox and Wilkins might have gone higher had they been more signable.
 
Smyly and Simpson, meanwhile, are Arkansas prep products, but neither was heavily scouted or recruited in high school. Smyly had a major elbow injury that subsequently forced him to red-shirt as a freshman at Arkansas, and Simpson’s unimposing frame simply didn’t appeal to talent seekers out of high school.
 
Both pitchers have since gone on to achieve significant success in 2010, as the unquestioned aces of their respective teams.
 
Smyly finished the regular season at 8-1, 2.58 with 92 strikeouts in 84 innings. Though he hasn’t faced the same level of competition, Simpson was even more dominant with a 13-1, 1.81 record, along with 131 strikeouts in 99 innings. If he wasn’t a smallish 6-foot righthander, Simpson might have been a potential first rounder himself as he has two plus pitches, at times, in his mid-90s fastball and power curve.
 
Southern Arkansas (47-10) fell one game short of a trip to the Division II World Series, while the Razorbacks had high hopes of a return to Omaha as they entered Southeastern Conference tournament action with a 40-16 record and No. 13 national ranking.
 
Few Arkansas high-school players ever sign professionally, directly out of the draft (one has done so in the past two years, a 12th rounder). That didn’t appear likely to change for at least another year, as Forrest City High righthander Barrett Astin, the state’s top prep prospect most of the spring, gave all indications to scouts that he would fulfill his Arkansas scholarship.
 
That scenario may have changed almost overnight, though, when Bryant High righthander Ben Wells sent scouts scurrying by spinning a 60-pitch, five-inning perfect game in the state 7-A championship final with a fastball that sat in the 92-94 mph range. Earlier in the spring, his fastball was just in the mid-80s. Suddenly, the Arkansas high-school ranks had a player capable of being drafted in the top 10 rounds.
 
That won’t be an issue in 2011, as Searcy High fireballing righthander Dillon Howard, one of the best high-school players ever developed in Arkansas, is a potential first-round pick.
 
IN A NUTSHELL
STRENGTH: Premium college talent.
WEAKNESS: High-school position prospects.
OVERALL RATING (1-to-5 scale): 4.
 
BEST COLLEGE TEAM: Arkansas
BEST HIGH-SCHOOL TEAM: Bryant HS.
 
PROSPECT ON THE RISE: Zach Cox, 3b, U. of Arkansas. Teams hunger for polished hitters, which is why Cox will likely go among the top 10 picks, despite concerns about his power and recent back injury.
PROSPECT ON THE DECLINE:Andy Wilkins, 1b, U. of Arkansas. Wilkins hit much better in 2009; he has struggled down the stretch.
WILD CARD: Brett Eibner, of-rhp, U. of Arkansas. He’s not necessarily a wild card in terms of where he might be drafted, but college baseball’s best two-way talent could be taken as either a center fielder or righthanded pitcher.
 
BEST OUT-OF-STATE PROSPECT, Arkansas Connection: Zach Cates, rhp, Northeast Texas CC (Attended high school in Conway).
TOP 2011 PROSPECT: Dillon Howard, rhp, Searcy HS.
TOP 2012 PROSPECT: D.J. Baxendale, rhp, U. of Arkansas.
 
HIGHEST DRAFT PICKS
Draft History: Jeff King, 3b, U. of Arkansas (1986, Pirates/1st round, 1st pick).
2006 Draft: Dan Stegall, of, Greenwood HS (Mets/7th round).
2007 Draft: Nick Schmidt, lhp, U. of Arkansas (Padres/1st round, 23rd pick).
2008 Draft: Logan Forsythe, 3b, U. of Arkansas (Padres/1st round, 46th pick).
2009 Draft: Dallas Keuchel, lhp, U. of Arkansas (Astros/7th round).
 
BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter: Zach Cox, 3b, Arkansas.
Best Power: Brett Eibner, of-rhp, Arkansas.
Best Speed: Colin Kuhn, of, Arkansas.
Best Defender: Zach Cox, 3b, Arkansas.
Best Velocity: Hayden Simpson, rhp, Southern Arkansas.
Best Breaking Stuff: Brett Eibner, of-rhp, Arkansas.
 
TOP PROSPECTS
Full scouting reports available on players ranked on national Top 250 list (click on National Top 2500)
 
GROUP ONE(Projected ELITE-Round Draft / Rounds 1-3)
1. ZACH COX, 3b, Arkansas (So.)                                              National Top 250 (Rank 8)
Scouts question raw power, but everything else is a plus; polished, mature hitter, 2B potential interesting twist

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