The offseason unofficially kicks off on Friday, November 11th with the beginning of the free agent period. This year's crop of free agents isn't as appealing as last year's, at least not in regards to premier talent, but there is interesting depth in which any team in all of baseball can improve the nuts & bolts of their rosters. I'm going to offer a baker's dozen of players and/or situations to keep an eye on this offseason:
1. Paul Konerko
Konerko is the biggest name on the free agent market after he led the Chicago White Sox' offense to a World Series victory. The White Sox have made it clear that they want to keep him, but Konerko has made it be known he wants to test the free agent waters despite his desire to stay in Chicago. With the lack of impact bats on the open market and with several teams needing a big bat to play first base, which includes the Angels, Yankees, Red Sox and Mets, look for Konerko to cash-in big. Given the way the Angels have been spending the last few years with Arte Moreno's seemingly bottomless pockets, my guess is that Konerko either returns to his native soil in Southern California or remains in Chicago. With several first basemen reportedly on the trading block, such as Jim Thome and Carlos Delgado, Konerko's destination could have a big effect on what everyone else does.
2. A.J. Burnett
Many believe Burnett is the biggest name of the free agent market, but I'm not particularly sold on a pitcher that has had his fair share of arm problems during his young career. His stuff is not in question, with one of the best fastball-curveball combinations in all of Major League Baseball. He reminds me a lot of Kerry Wood, who with similar stuff has also battled a variety of arm injuries. This makes for a major risk for a team about to offer such a pitcher a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract. You know the Yankees are likely to be involved, as is probably most of the rest of the American League East.
3. Brian Giles
I still believe Giles is one of the most underrated hitters in all of baseball over the last seven years. He has spent the last few years hitting in a few of the most pitching-friendly parks in all of baseball at PETCO Park in San Diego and PNC Park in Pittsburgh, and he still has put up impressive numbers. Giles will be 35 to open the 2006 season, so this likely will be the last big contract he signs, but whomever signs him will have a proven and reliable middle-of-the-order hitter. The Padres are trying hard to keep Giles from leaving his hometown team. If he leaves town, the Cubs are a popular rumored target, while the Braves would love to have both Giles brothers playing together on the same team.
4. Rafael Furcal
Furcal has been one of the most dynamic middle infielders in the game since he leap-frogged two levels of minor league baseball to make his big-league debut in 2000 at the age of 21. He has been extremely reliable and durable during that time, only missing significant time in 2001. Furcal has played at least 143 games every year since then, gets on base, hits for good pop for a middle infielder and steals a healthy number of bases while playing good defense with a strong arm. The need for leadoff hitters is always high, and for one that plays a premium position the price will likely be equally high. The Cubs are also rumored to be a possible destination for Furcal, as are the Mets if he leaves Atlanta.
5. Kevin Millwood
Millwood led the American League in ERA (2.86) in 2005 despite posting a 9-11 record. Ever since Millwood was traded away from Atlanta he reportedly has been looking for a big pay-day, but he has yet to receive it. Once again he is looking for a big, five-year deal, and once again it seems unlikely that he will find such a deal. The going rate for front-line pitchers seems to be three to four years at $10 to $12 million per year, as evidenced by the contracts Carl Pavano and Pedro Martinez signed a year ago. The Indians want to keep Millwood in Cleveland, for good reason, but are unlikely to offer such a deal. He probably will be one of the last free agents to sign, even if he ends up accepting arbitration from the Indians to stick around for another year at $10-12 million for 2006.
6. Billy Wagner
While the free agent class is thin, the list of proven, dominant closers and setup men is deep. Wagner highlights this list, and there will be a number of teams in the running for his services if the Phillies can't keep him. Wagner has been one of the most consistently dominant closers in this era, with 284 career saves. The Mets are the one big-named, high-payroll teams that do not have a dominant, big-name closer, so if the Phillies are unable to re-sign Wagner, the Mets are probably the next in line.
7. Trevor Hoffman
Hoffman is the next biggest name available among closers, who has spent almost his entire 13-year career with the San Diego Padres. The Padres are going to try hard to keep him, but he may be tempted to feel out the open market, as the demand for him could sky-rocket, particularly when Wagner is signed. While Hoffman doesn't have Wagner's stuff, he has one of the best changeups in all of baseball, a huge reason for his 436 career saves. If the Mets fail to sign Wagner, or if the Phillies lose Wagner, look for one of those two teams to make a run at Hoffman, among others.
8. Johnny Damon
The Red Sox are going to try very hard to keep Damon in Boston, and they certainly have the financial resources to do so. Similar to Furcal, his value as a leadoff hitter is going to bring him another big pay day, although he's not as good of an overall player as Furcal with a well below-average throwing arm and he seems to be slowing down, now at the age of 32. With Bernie Williams moving on from the Bronx, don't be surprised if the Yankees swoop in and try to lure him to the other side, although that would mean he would have to cut his locks and keep a cleanly shaved face with Steinbrenner in charge.
9. Mike Piazza
Everyone seems to agree that Mike Piazza's catching days are behind him. With that, he seems suited best to an American League ballclub, where the DH will help prolong his career. He hasn't hit 30 home runs since 2002, he hasn't had 500 ABs since 2001, and he hasn't drove in 100 runs since 2000. That said, Piazza will still draw interest, and if the Angels don't sign Konerko or find a way to trade for Manny Ramirez, Piazza is a likely candidate to return back to Los Angeles.
10. Kenji Johjima
Johjima will probably be the most interesting name to watch for the simple fact that he's from Japan. Japanese players have their fair share of skepticism attached to them, with almost every Japanese hitter having to live up to the unfair standard that Ichiro Suzuki set. Johjima plays a premium position as a catcher, and is currently the Japanese League's biggest star with power and solid defense, including a strong throwing arm, from behind the plate. There are always questions about how a Japanese player's skills will convert while playing Major League Baseball, but with Johjima there is the added question of how his defense will relate since he doesn't speak English and there would be an obvious language barrier with English-speaking pitchers. He reportedly can speak Spanish, so there may not be problems for him receiving a Latin American pitcher. The candidates for Japanese players will remain the same, with the Mariners, Mets and Yankees being the likely suitors if he does indeed decide to play in the United States.
11. Southern California catchers
Alright, the next three categories I'm going to cheat a little bit to lump a few players together. The SoCal catchers include the Angels' Bengie Molina and the Padres' Ramon Hernandez. Molina is a take-charge backstop with excellent receiving skills. Hernandez has been one of the most consistent and reliable offensive catchers in baseball over the last three to five years. Together they form a pretty good pool of catchers to choose from. The Angels may move forward with Molina's brother, Jose, and young prospect Jeff Mathis, while the Padres don't seem inclined to keep Hernandez, particularly since most of their efforts will go towards re-signing Giles. Once again, the Mets will likely be involved with one of them, and the Mariners could use a catcher as well.
12. LA pitchers
Between the Angels and Dodgers, Los Angeles offers two of the more appealing pitchers available in free agency: Jeff Weaver and Jarrod Washburn. Both of them, along with Kevin Millwood, Johnny Damon and Ramon Hernandez once again give agent Scott Boras another strong class. Weaver has solid stuff, and despite being inconsistent, he has posted solid numbers throughout his career. He's not a staff ace, but he definitely would stabilize any team's rotation. Jarrod Washburn was the ace of the Angels 2002 World Series Championship team, so he has proven his worth on the highest stage. With the Dodgers front-office in disarray, and the Angels seemingly not interested in bringing Washburn back, look for both of these pitchers to find new homes in 2006, although they likely will be among the last big-name free agents to sign.
13. The Bad Boys
This category is reserved for special case players, including Rafael Palmeiro and Matt Lawton, both of whom tested positively for using steroids, as well as Kenny Rogers. All three players are solid big-leaguers, with Palmeiro being a future Hall of Famer, Lawton a solid outfielder, and Rogers seems to get better with age. You can almost guarantee that none of the three will return to their previous team, and they likely will seek smaller markets where the pressure and negative attention may not be as great. While Palmeiro and Rogers are getting rather old, neither has given any indication that they're retiring. All three likely will be bargains relative to their production for teams willing to take on their off-the-field issues.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.