With the beginning of the Major League season just days away, its time for me to make my predictions on what the season will hold. Below I will pick how the teams will finish, who will win the World Series, and what players will win the major individual awards.
American League
American League East
1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
The acquisition of Randy Johnson will impact the Yankees just as much as Curt Schilling impacted the Red Sox last year. Focusing on their pitching staff was a wise idea for the Bronx Bombers, as they also added Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano while moving Javier Vazquez in the Johnson trade. With Mike Mussina, still one of the best starters in all of Major League Baseball, and even Kevin Brown, the Yankees once again stand to have one of the best, if not the best, starting rotations on paper. The same could be said about their lineup, especially if Jason Giambi can stay relatively healthy while re-finding his stroke despite all of the steroid talk. Even if he doesn't, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Gary Sheffield, Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams will make sure the Yankees score plenty of runs. Mariano Rivera is a rock in the bullpen.
The Red Sox will still be very good, and I have them winning the Wild Card berth from the American League and advancing further than the Yankees just like they did last season. Replacing Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe with Matt Clement and David Wells may seem to be a huge step down, but both Clement and Wells have been very productive in recent years, and relative to the salaries of Martinez and Lowe, the Red Sox might just get more bang for their buck. Taking a shot on Wade Miller may prove to be the best decision of all of them. Even if the Red Sox' pitching falters, the lineup is good enough to make up the difference. They even picked up one of the best all-around shortstops in baseball in Edgar Renteria to shore up the middle of their infield defense while re-signing team leader Jason Varitek. David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Kevin Millar, Johnny Damon, Trot Nixon and Bill Mueller haven't gone anywhere, as the Red Sox are still going to score a lot of runs. Keith Foulke is one of the league's best closers.
The Blue Jays will bounce back if ace starter Roy Halladay is healthy. They still don't have the ammo to even contend with the Yankees and Red Sox, and despite losing Carlos Delgado, they should still field an exciting lineup with Vernon Wells, Corey Koskie and an infusion of young talent that includes Alexis Rios, Gabe Gross and David Adams. Ted Lilly, Miguel Batista and David Bush should all help stabilize the rotation, and with the third best staff in the division the Blue Jays will finish third even without the high profile offensive lineup of the Baltimore Orioles.
Acquiring Sammy Sosa continues to make the Orioles lineup look like one of the better ones on paper, but they soon will find out just how much Sammy helps defensively and in the clubhouse. There are too many question marks surrounding their pitching, and in such a tough decision if you don't have the pitching you're going to run into some tough times. However, with Sosa, Melvin Mora, Javier Lopez and even Rafael Palmeiro batting in the middle of their lineup, they too should score plenty of runs during the season.
B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Delmon Young and Scott Kazmir could make the Devil Rays an extremely exciting team to follow in a few years, but like the Orioles they don't have the pitching to make enough noise in an extremely tough division. Aubrey Huff is one of the most underrated run producers in the game, and if the Devil Rays struggle he could be one of the more appealing bats available at the trade deadline.
American League Central
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals
Four teams could make a serious run for the American League Central crown, but I don't see any team at this point in time usurping the Minnesota Twins. With Johan Santana and Brad Radke, the Twins have a serious one-two-punch that is hard to match in the division. No other team has the Twins' depth or versatility, and they always seem to find players from seemingly nowhere that are key contributors to their recent division crowns. Young slugger Justin Morneau figures to become a fixture in the middle of their order, driving in table setters such as Shannon Stewart, Lew Ford and Jacque Jones.
The Twins are going to have to look out for the Indians in the next several years, as General Manager Mark Shapiro is one of the brightest young executives in all of baseball. The lineup in a few years could give the Indians lineups of the mid-90s a run for their money with talented sluggers such as Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez and Grady Sizemore. If Juan Gonzalez stays healthy, he too could add to the run scoring parade. Again similar to the mid-90s teams, this year's club may have a hard time finding the necessary pitching to put them over the top, but with C.C. Sabathia and recently acquired Kevin Millwood leading the way, there is plenty of talent and youth to complement the team.
While the Twins and Indians have built their current teams from within through player development and shrewd trades, the Tigers have opened their pocketbooks the past two offseasons, picking up key contributors such as Ivan Rodriguez, Rondell White, Troy Percival and Magglio Ordonez. Along with trading for young talents such as Carlos Guillen and Carlos Pena, and hoping Delmon Young can stay healthy, the Tigers shouldn't have many problems scoring runs. Similar to the Indians, pitching will be key, although young ace-to-be Jeremy Bonderman could enjoy a breakout season at any time, while Percival along with Ugeth Urbina and Kyle Farnsworth give the Tigers three dominant, power arms in the late innings.
On paper, the White Sox look as though they have one of the best teams, if not the best in the American League Central. With General Manager Kenny Williams trying to build the ballclub to the wishes of he and manager Ozzie Guillen emphasizing speed, pitching and defense, he acquired outfielders Scott Podsednik and Jermaine Dye to man the corner outfield spots while complementing Aaron Rowand, Paul Konerko, Frank Thomas and Juan Uribe in the lineup. A.J. Pierzynski adds a productive bat to the catching spot and will handle a talented staff that includes Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Orlando Hernandez, Jose Contreras and John Garland. I guess I have the White Sox fourth in this division because I don't see Uribe and Rowand repeating the seasons they had from a year before, Konerko and Thomas have had problem staying healthy and productive, while there are injury and production questions with Buehrle, Hernandez and Contreras as well. If this team does click this season they could be very dangerous.
With all apologies to the fans of the Kansas City Royals, you're just not there yet. I think Zack Geinke is one of the best young pitchers in all of baseball, with plenty of other appealing young players on the way up. Angel Berroa, Mark Teahen and Mike Sweeney will create one of the better infields on paper in the American League, although Mike Sweeney is one of the bigger names rumored to be on the trading block this season. The good news is that with the second overall pick in the June draft, the Royals stand to add another key piece to the future puzzle.
American League West
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Texas Rangers
Similar to recent years, the American League West could have the smallest margin for error between teams. The Angels, as painful as their new name is, is easily the best team on paper. Signing Steve Finley and Orlando Cabrera solidifies the middle of the defense, and add two more bats to what was an already potent offense that includes Vladimir Guerrero, Garrett Anderson and Darin Erstad. Young sluggers Dallas McPherson and Casey Kotchman could start to gel with the more proven veterans in the lineup, and they have great depth on the bench with Juan Rivera, Chone Figgins and Robb Quinlan. Bartolo Colon and Kelvim Escobar give the Angels two live arms, while Francisco Rodriguez should pick up where Troy Percival left off as the team's closer. They could use another starter, but this team is going to score a lot of runs.
After the Angels, there are plenty of questions marks with the A's, Mariners and Rangers. After trading two members of the Big Three (Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder), arguably the best two members of the talented trio, the A's are relying on a lot of youth with their pitching staff with Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, Dan Meyer and Dan Haren all in the running to claim a rotation spot behind Barry Zito. The bullpen has been one of the A's biggest question marks in recent years, but the unflappable Huston Street could offer the needed stability to a 'pen that already includes fire-balling closer Octavio Dotel. While trading the salaries of Hudson and Mulder, the A's picked up Jason Kendall from the Pirates. Similar to the pitching staff, the lineup is going to rely heavily on young players, with Nick Swisher, Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson all factoring prominently to the success of the A's offense this year. Eric Chavez is the one rock in the lineup and on the field defensively that you can expect to have a very good season. While there seem to be far too many question marks for the A's to overcome, it's hard not to give them the benefit of the doubt given their success in recent years.
Ichiro stands to have a huge season if the signings of Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre pan out. Playing without Edgar Martinez for the first time in 19 years will be tough, but holdovers Randy Winn and Bret Boone will help stabilize the offense, which should allow Ichiro to score a lot more runs than the 101 he scored a year ago. The pitching is a big question mark, and young ace Joel Pineiro seems to continue to be plagued by injuries. Jamie Moyer will help stabilize a young rotation that needs a few players to step up. At this point in time Mariners fans are looking forward to the much-anticipated arrival of young phenom Felix Hernandez. Unfortunately, the expectations for Hernandez are unreasonably high, with comparisons to Dwight Gooden inevitable, the Mariners would be wise to be patient with Hernandez' development.
Placing the Rangers fourth, or last, in this division probably isn't fair given what they accomplished last season. While they have some of the most exciting young bats in all of baseball, and arguably the best infield with Hank Blalock, Michael Young, Alfonso Soriano and Mark Teixeira, they still don't have the pitching necessary to make a legitimate playoff push. No matter how or where they finish, they won't be far behind or ahead of the Mariners or A's in one of the tighter divisions in Major League Baseball.
Wild-Card winner: Boston Red Sox
American League Pennant: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
MVP: Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
As noted above, with Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, Bret Boone and even rookie Jeremy Reed hitting behind him, Ichiro stands to have a huge season, even if he's not putting up the gaudy home run totals that MVP winners typically boast. A lot of MVP candidates will be factored out due to their respective teammates, such as the Red Sox' Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz and the Yankees' Alex Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield.
Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
I just have a gut feeling that Roy Halladay is going to be healthy and bounce back this season. When healthy, Halladay has some of the nastiest stuff. Johan Santana, Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson and several others are the usual preseason candidates for this award, but what's the fun predicting one of them to win it?
Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Reed, Seattle Mariners
Dallas McPherson of the Angels and Nick Swisher of the A's are likely going to be put in more high-pressure situations filling in key roles in the lineups of their respective teams, but Reed may just have the best season playing amidst the likes of Ichiro, Sexson, Beltre, etc.
Manager of the Year: Alan Trammel, Detroit Tigers
With help of several big-name offseason acquisitions, the Tigers will have the talent to score some runs, and they have several young arms that could help prevent them as well. Playing in pitcher-friendly Comerica Park will help that young yet talented staff, and the Tigers won't have to finish first, or even second, in the American League Central for Trammel to win this honor.
National League
National League East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Florida Marlins
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets
I pointed out in an earlier submission of the Crack of the Bat that I wasn't going to bet against the Atlanta Braves given their amazing run of 13 consecutive division titles. The offense appears as if it will take a step back after losing J.D. Drew, who replaced Gary Sheffield. However, they have signed both Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi, and while both players seem to be well past their best seasons, the Braves have always been able to find players that have more than a little something left in the tank, starting with Terry Pendleton in 1991 and leading to the most recent example of Jaret Wright last year. The pitching should continue to be as good as it's been with the acquisition of Tim Hudson, one of the best starting pitchers in all of Major League Baseball the past five seasons. With the acquisition of closer Dan Kolb, John Smoltz moves back to the starting rotation along with Mike Hampton, Horacio Ramirez and John Thomson, yet another reclamation acquisition of General Manager John Scheurholz. Familiar faces Chipper and Andruw Jones return, along with Rafael Furcal, Marcus Giles, Adam LaRoche and Johnny Estrada.
The Florida Marlins in my opinion have the most well-rounded and versatile lineup in all of baseball after the acquisition of Carlos Delgado. The have speed an on-base ability at the top (Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo), middle of the order mashers (Delgado, Miguel Cabrera and Mike Lowell), and solid, proven leaders like Paul Lo Duca and Jeff Conine. The starting rotation continues to be very young and very talented with Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, Dontrelle Willis, along with the return of lefty Al Leiter. The bullpen is the biggest question mark at this juncture, but they did a good job or resurrecting Armando Benitez' career a year ago, who signed a multi-year, multi-million dollar deal with the San Francisco Giants. While I'm not betting against the Braves to not win the division, I think the Marlins will make the playoffs as the Wild-Card team.
This season I believe we're going to find out just how much the Phillies will benefit from not having the unnecessarily hard-nosed manager Larry Bowa in control of the team on the field. When teams underachieve it always is a matter of motivation, and lighting fires under players is the responsibility of the coach. The Phillies have no shortage of well-known pitchers and hitters. Jim Thome, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, Chase Utley, along with David Bell and Kenny Lofton (if healthy) should score their fair share of runs. The starting rotation features offseason free agent signing Jon Lieber along with Randy Wolf, Brett Myers, Vicente Padilla and Corey Lidle. Young starter Gavin Floyd is poised to step in if injury shuts down any of their starters, and electric southpaw Billy Wagner remains one of the most dynamic closers in the game.
Major League Baseball finally solved the problem formerly known as the Montreal Expos by moving the franchise to Washington. Now the Nationals, the club is in a much better position to be successful. Former Reds General Manager Jim Bowden is now at the reigns, and he has a busy offseason, trading for enigmatic slugger Jose Guillen and signing free agents Vinny Castilla and Cristian Guzman. They will complement current mashers Brad Wilkerson, Nick Johnson and Jose Vidro well. The Nationals rotation already features several productive starters in Livan Hernandez, Tomo Ohka and Zach Day, and they have a few potential surprise candidates in the rotation as well with Tony Armas Jr., John Patterson, Jon Rauch and Esteban Loaiza. With a new city, a new look and several new players to add to an already solid team, the Nationals could be poised to open a few eyes this season.
The New York Mets, last in the National League East, after their busy offseason? With apologies to Mets fans, I'm picking the Mets to be this year's biggest disappointment. Sure, the free agent signings of Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran certainly were exciting, and they already have a solid foundation of good players including Mike Piazza, Cliff Floyd, Mike Cameron, Jose Reyes, Kazuo Matsui, David Wright, Tom Glavine and Kris Benson, but I just see all the new faces and egos being too much for this team to handle in one year. Pedro has been in a decline the past few years, while Piazza, Floyd and even Benson have had their fair share of recent injury concerns. Even if the rotation and lineup is solidified, the bullpen looks to be shaky at best.
National League Central
1. Houston Astros
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Cincinnati Reds
While I picked the New York Mets to be my biggest disappointment despite their busy offseason, I'm picking the Houston Astros as my surprise team for the 2005 season despite all of the high-profile players that were allowed to leave via free agency. The rotation should still be stable, with Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettite all returning. If all three remain healthy, they could boast the best three-man rotation in the National League. Rookie Chris Burke could give the team an exciting presence at the top of the lineup, while return of the "Killer B's," Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell and Lance Berkman, should solidify the lineup. Brad Lidge returns as one of the most electrifying young closers in all of baseball. The Astros have always had good depth, with solid veterans like Jose Vizcaino and Orlando Palmeiro, while Morgan Ensberg, Mike Lamb, Jason Lane and Adam Everett will round out the rest of the everyday lineup.
Most people are picking the St. Louis Cardinals to repeat as the leaders of the National League Central division. While they definitely have the firepower to do so with Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen in the middle of their lineup, the also relied on a solid pitching staff last year, in which several members enjoyed breakout, career seasons. To expect a repeat performance from pitchers such as Jason Marquis and Chris Carpenter probably isn't wise, although the acquisition of Mark Mulder could be huge. Matt Morris has had some offseason arm concerns, and he suffered a tough 2004 season despite posting 15 wins. Losing key members of their defense up the middle in Mike Matheny and Edgar Renteria will hurt more than they think. Jason Isringhausen will continue to be a solid closer, and Reggie Sanders and Larry Walker will help the Cardinals score even more runs. The main question will be how often will they be able to simply out-score their opponents? Plenty of times to be well over .500, to be sure, but not enough to win the Central.
The Chicago Cubs will be successful as long as their impressive pitching staff (Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux) stays healthy. Prior and Wood have already had some injury scares this spring, and Dusty Baker doesn't have the best track record taking care of his young arms. Sammy Sosa could be a case of addition through subtraction, and Jeromy Burnitz should come close to matching Sosa's productivity from a year ago. The lineup has solid offensive contributors at almost every position with Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Nomar Garciaparra, Michael Barrett and Corey Patterson. Todd Hollandsworth and Jason Dubois may prove to be a solid platoon in right field, while Todd Walker and Jerry Hairston Jr. may prove to do the same at second base. The biggest weakness of the Cubs without a doubt lies in the bullpen, as they failed to address their need for a closer, and have now handed those duties back to LaTroy Hawkins since Joe Borowski is out for an extended period of time with a broken arm.
Some may call me out for being biased by placing the Milwaukee Brewers fourth in this division, but at least I don't have them in the top three. The biggest problem the Brewers had from a year ago was scoring runs, and the acquisition of Carlos Lee immediately helps that cause, placing a proven, right-handed bat in between left-handed sluggers Lyle Overbay and Geoff Jenkins. Damian Miller will be a significant improvement over Chad Moeller, who now serves as the team's backup, and rookie J.J. Hardy could solidify the middle infield. Ben Sheets is one of the best young pitchers in all of baseball, and pitching coach Mike Maddux has proved that he can work wonders with pitching reclamation projects such as Doug Davis. The rest of the starting rotation is a big question mark, as is the bullpen, and you could see an infusion of young talent as the season wears.
The Pittsburgh Pirates always manage to make some noise each and every year, although like the Brewers they haven't enjoyed a season at or above .500 since the 1992 season. With Oliver Perez as their ace, followed by Mark Redman, Kip Wells and Josh Fogg, the Pirates should be able to hang around in a lot of games all season long. While the lineup isn't an offensive juggernaut, Craig Wilson, Jack Wilson, Jason Bay, Matt Lawton and Ty Wigginton should push a fair amount of runs across home plate. The bullpen should also be solid with Mike Gonzalez and Jose Mesa. They're still missing several key pieces, and they don't have that one can't-miss bat, which will prevent them from contending with the likes of the Astros, Cardinals and Cubs.
The Reds made some noise this offseason by signing Eric Milton, Joe Randa, Kent Mercker and David Weathers. While all four of these players are solid, they're unlikely to put the Reds up to the next level. Milton, in particular is an extreme flyball hitter now pitching in a hitter's park. That's not a good combination. The starting rotation continues to have major question marks, although the bullpen should be solid with Weathers and Mercker joining Ryan Wagner and Danny Graves. The offense will once again rely on the health and productivity of their outfielders: Ken Griffey Jr., Austin Kearns, Adam Dunn and Wily Mo Pena. Sean Casey will continue to stabilize not only the lineup, but the entire team, but the Reds just don't have the pitching nor the depth to succeed.
National League West
1. San Francisco Giants
2. San Diego Padres
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies
Barry Bonds may receive an incredible amount of scrutiny for the steroids issue, but you can't deny how impressive of a hitter he is. He also is an extremely hard worker, which leads me to believe that he will back sooner from his second offseason knee injury than what even he projects. The Giants did a great job this offseason finding a legitimate bat to hit in front, or behind Bonds in Moises Alou. Omar Vizquel and Mike Matheny should solidify the defense up the middle, and Jason Schmidt is a one-man pitching staff. Armando Benitez may be an inconsistent closer up until last year's breakout season with the Marlins, but he should at least give the Giants the best closer they have had since Robb Nen. Noah Lowry, Kirk Reuter and Jerome Williams should give the Giants a respectable rotation, while Michael Tucker, Marquis Grissom, Pedro Feliz, Edgardo Alfonzo, Ray Durham and J.T. Snow will round out the rest of the lineup.
If Bonds doesn't return, the San Diego Padres could be poised to step in. They arguably have the deepest group of position players of any Major League team with Brian Giles, Phil Nevin, Ryan Klesko, Sean Burroughs, Xavier Nady, Mark Loretta, Khalil Greene, Ramon Hernandez and Eric Young. Jake Peavy is one of the most talented young starting pitchers in the National League, and free agent veteran Woody Williams was brought aboard to add depth. Trevor Hoffman has been one of the most stable and consistent closers, and as long he stays healthy his changeup will shut down opposing teams in the ninth inning. In the second year at Petco Park, the Padres continue to be a sleeper team just waiting to pounce if they take advantage of the opportunities given to them.
The Los Angeles Dodgers made a flurry of transactions this offseason. The most notable of acquisitions was J.D. Drew, who should give the Dodgers a consistent, left-handed bat as long as he can stay healthy. If Milton Bradley can stay focused on the game he should give the Dodgers another potent, all-around threat. Jeff Kent was another big offseason acquisition, and he along with Hee Seop Choi and Jose Valentin will give the lineup a couple of more big boppers. Cesar Izturis, Jason Phillips, Jason Werth and Ricky Ledee should prove to be nice complementary players. The rotation features the return of Odalis Perez, Jeff Weaver and Brad Penny, who will be joined by offseason acquisition Derek Lowe. Eric Gagne is arguably the best closer in baseball.
As bad as the Diamondbacks were last season, they made some noise this past offseason. While Randy Johnson is obviously the most notable player that has departed, the Diamondbacks did acquire Javier Vazquez and Shawn Green. Russ Ortiz, Troy Glaus, Royce Clayton and Craig Counsell were added via free agency. Brandon Webb and Luis Gonzalez return to put all of the new pieces together, as the Diamondbacks stand to have a very different looking team this season, which blends proven veterans with a growing infusion of young talent.
The Rockies, much like the Kansas City Royals in the American League, are the surest bets to stumble this season. Like the Royals, there is reason for optimism, with talented young players such as Jeff Francis, Garrett Atkin, Clint Barmes, J.D. Closser, Brent Miles and Matt Holliday all looking to receive significant playing time this year. The farm system offers more hope with young slugger Ian Stewart a year or two away from holding down third base for years to come, and Chris Nelson a year or two behind him. Todd Helton will have another big year, but the Rockies just don't have the ammo to compete with just about anyone, and are the frontrunners to hold the dubious honor of drafting first in 2006.
Wild-Card winner: Florida Marlins
National League Pennant: Florida Marlins
MVP: Albert Pujols
With Barry Bonds expected to miss significant time this year after knee surgery, Pujols would seem to be poised to win the MVP award given the incredible numbers he has put up during his first four season in the big leagues.
Cy Young: Roy Oswalt
Similar to my projected choice for AL Cy Young winner, Oswalt is a gut feeling for me. He had a great year pitching behind last year's Cy Young award winner Roger Clemens, and I think he will continue to build upon that success. Similar to Roy Halladay, Oswalt doesn't know how to throw a pitch without movement.
Rookie of the Year: Chris Burke
While Burke isn't going to come close to replacing Jeff Kent's productivity, he's not that kind of offensive player, and he should add a more exciting dynamic at second base and on the basepaths. He is about as polished as they come when it comes to rookies, and he should help set the table for the rest of the Astros lineup.
Manager of the Year: Phil Garner
With the losses of Carlos Beltran and Jeff Kent, not to mention the injury to Lance Berkman, not too many people are counting on the Astros to enjoy much success this year. I don't expect Roger Clemens to duplicate his 2004 season, but if he, Andy Pettite and Roy Oswalt all stay healthy over the course of the season, they may just have the best three-man staff in all of baseball. If the Astros win more than expected, Phil Garner will get the credit.
World Series: Marlins over Angels
In a matchup of the surprise winners of the 2002 and 2003 World Series, the Marlins' depth and diversity continues to prove to be too much throughout the playoffs. Josh Beckett will once again show how much he likes the big stage, and the Marlins will have their third World Series trophy in their 13 years of existence.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.