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General  | Top Ten | 1/2/2009

Florida 2009: College Crop

Allan Simpson
Florida’s 2008 college draft class was not only talented, but cleanly defined. Florida State catcher Buster Posey, the consensus national player of the year, predictably was the first player drafted (fifth overall, Giants), and Miami, the nation’s No. 1-ranked team most of the 2008 season, had a profound impact on the draft, as expected, with three first-rounders and six selections in the top four rounds.

By contrast, Florida’s 2009 college draft class falls short on both counts as it lacks the front-end talent that was graphically evident a year ago and there is considerably less consensus on just who the top prospects even are. The source of the talent is also much more diversified as it will come from schools other than national powers Florida State and Miami.

Not only is the state’s No. 1 prospect, Florida Southern shortstop Robbie Shields, from a Division II program, but there are several other wild cards in the mix that could significantly impact the early rounds of the ’09 draft.

As part of PG Crosschecker’s ongoing preview coverage of the 2009 draft, we’re taking a close-up look at a number of states and our focus today is on Florida. We’ll unveil our full Florida follow lists of the top college, junior college and high school prospects in the 2009, 2010 and 2011 draft classes (more than 800 players in all) in the coming days, but we’ve provided a sneak preview of the top 10 prospects in the 2009 college class below.

Two shortstops top the list—Shields and Miami’s Ryan Jackson. Playing for a higher-profile program the last two years and with USA Baseball’s college national team last summer, Jackson has had significantly greater exposure than Shields, but scouts appear to favor Shields as the better prospect, and he’ll attract more than his share of scrutiny this coming spring (Click here for PG Crosschecker scouting profiles on Shields and Jackson below).

Beyond those two prospects, there is a decided lack of consensus on what Florida will offer in the way of college talent for the 2009 draft. The wild cards complicate the picture.

Miami junior lefthander Eric Erickson is an obvious one. He won 19 games in his first two seasons for the Hurricanes, and would have factored neatly into the early-round mix—and still might—if he hadn’t undergone Tommy John surgery in November, which will cause him to miss the 2009 season. Erickson was bothered by a tender elbow in the spring at Miami and during the summer in the Cape Cod League, and when two months of rest didn’t cure the problem, he elected to undergo the surgery. Erickson, more of a finesse pitcher than a power arm, would normally have projected as a second- to- fourth-rounder, but it’s unclear now whether a team will take a run at him in June—or wait a year.

With the departure of a half-dozen premium prospects in the 2008 draft coupled with the loss of Erickson, Miami’s impact on the 2009 draft will be considerably less. Besides Jackson, their lone returning infielder, the Hurricanes have only one other player who is certain to be drafted in the first 10 rounds. That’s 6-foot-5 junior righthander Kyle Bellamy, who progresses from a set-up role to Miami’s primary closer.

To provide a quick fix for a depleted lineup, Miami brought in several junior-college transfers, notably three players from Texas—third baseman Chris Herrmann (Orioles, 10th round), second baseman Scott Lawson (Astros, 40th round) and righthander Taylor Wulf (Braves, 39th round), all drafted players in 2008. They should provide immediate help on the field for the Hurricanes while also giving the school some significant mid-round representation in the draft. Herrmann, a possible 8th-10th rounder, should be the next Miami player drafted after Jackson and Bellamy, though Erickson cannot be discounted if a team chooses to roll the dice with him.

Shields’ spot atop Florida’s 2009 college follow list normally would be considered a boon to the small-college ranks throughout the state. But Florida Southern is a nine-time Division II national champion and has a prospect-laden roster, even beyond Shields. The recent ruling by the NCAA, which now requires players transferring from one Division I school to another to sit out a year, has also led to a number of other potential 2009 draft picks showing up this year on rosters of several small-school teams in Florida.

Chief among the Division I transfers is junior catcher/first baseman Yan Gomes, a 39th-round pick of the Boston Red Sox last June. Gomes, along with teammate Danny Lima, transferred from Tennessee to Division II Barry University, near their Miami homes. Gomes, a two-year starter at Tennessee, is expected to be drafted in the top 10 rounds in June. Interestingly, the player the Red Sox took one round later than Gomes in last June’s draft was Barry ace righthander Bobby Hernandez, who elected to return for his senior year.

Former Clemson lefthander Matt Zoltak hoped to boost his draft stock, as well, by joining up with Shields at Florida Southern and working on a more regular basis. Though he’s projected to be drafted in the first 12-15 rounds, there’s a significant chance that Zoltak will be overshadowed on his own pitching staff by two promising Florida Southern sophomores, lefthander Max Russell and righthander Daniel Tillman. Russell has been installed as the Moccasins ace, and Russell as the closer. Both pitchers have been clocked at 93-94 mph and, like Shields this year, are projected to be early-round picks in the 2010 draft. PG Crosschecker ranks them as the Nos. 5 and 7 college prospects in the state, in what promises to be a stronger draft crop.

Of all the wild cards in Florida’s 2009 draft class, the most prominent are two outfielders more renowned for their football ability. Florida’s Riley Cooper is a starting wide receiver on a team that qualified to play in the BCS championship game, while Florida State’s D’Vontrey Richardson spent this fall as a backup quarterback for the Seminoles.

Both are red-shirt sophomores from a baseball standpoint as Cooper missed his true freshman season at Florida because of injury, while Richardson elected to skip the 2008 baseball season to concentrate all his efforts on winning the starting QB job for the Seminoles. Cooper hit .207-2-10 in 58 at-bats for the Gators last spring as a part-time outfielder. Richardson hit .351-2-20 in 131 at-bats for FSU in 2007, mainly as the team’s starting center fielder.

With the 2009 baseball draft looming and their football careers not blossoming to the degree expected when they were heavily recruited two-sport athletes out of high school, both Cooper and Richardson have elected to intensify their efforts to play baseball this spring. Richardson is scheduled to start at DH for the Seminoles, while Cooper is in the running for the starting right-field job at Florida.

Scouts say both players have all the raw talent to be high-round picks, but also acknowledge that they’ll need a lot of repetitions for that to occur as baseball has been a clear No. 2 option to date for both. They’ll also need to give teams that might consider drafting them a clear indication that they want to pursue a baseball career at the professional level to justify the kind of signing bonus needed to draw them away from football.

Cooper, a 15th-round pick of the Philadelphia Phillies in 2006 out of a Florida high school, struggled while playing briefly in the Valley League last summer—and yet was ranked by PG Crosschecker as the No. 1 prospect in that league. He caught 16 passes for 233 yards for the Gators this fall, and one of his three TD receptions sewed up Florida’s 31-20 win over then No. 1-ranked Alabama in a game that propelled the Gators into the BCS championship match vs. Oklahoma.

Richardson, a 38th-round pick of the Washington Nationals in 2006 out of a Georgia high school, completed 23 of 44 passes for 315 yards and three TDs this fall for the Seminoles, but never got his shot at becoming FSU’s primary quarterback, prompting him to take a renewed look at baseball.

With all those variables to consider, here’s our rough take on how we see the 2009 draft unfolding from the viewpoint of Florida college talent.

Rank Player Pos. School Previously Drafted Projected ’09 Draft
1. Robbie Shields SS Florida Southern Never drafted 1st round
2. Ryan Jackson SS Miami Never drafted 1-2
3. Matt Den Dekker OF Florida Never drafted 2-3
4. Kyle Bellamy RHP Miami Never drafted 2-3
5. Robby Donovan RHP Stetson Twins ’06 (35) 2-4
6. Austin Hudson RHP Central Florida Nationals ’06 (37) 2-5
8. Riley Cooper OF Florida Phillies ’06 (15) 2-15
7. *Eric Erickson LHP Miami Yankees ’06 (43) 3-15
8. D’Vontrey Richardson OF Florida State Nationals ’06 (35) 3-20
10. Carson Andrew RHP Jacksonville Never drafted 4-6
*Scheduled to miss 2009 season with injury

SCOUTING REPORT / ROBBIE SHIELDS, ss

Cape Cod League, 2008

The 6-foot-1, 195-pound Shields played just 12 games for Cotuit, but it was readily apparent that he measured up with any shortstop in the league—even No. 1 prospect Grant Green. Green was the more athletic of the two and his tools were more obvious, but Shields may have been Green’s equal as a player. He was the glue to the Cotuit roster, and the Kettleers struggled when Shields was lost for the season after he broke a bone at the top of his wrist on a head-first slide. He was hitting .349-2-11 with six extra-base hits at the time, and had not committed an error at shortstop. Shields displayed solid, all-around tools—at the plate, in the field and on the bases. He has good bat speed and deceptive power for a middle infielder, and can drive balls to all fields. His defensive actions are just average by shortstop standards, but more than adequate if a move to second or third might be in the works. His arm is strong and accurate, and definitely plays on the left side of the infield. He gets particularly good backspin on his throws, resulting in good carry. Though his speed (6.75 in the 60) is slightly above-average, he knows how to use it to advantage on the bases, but will not be a base stealer of any significance. Shields’ makeup is one of his strong points and it was not lost on scouts that he remained with Cotuit the balance of the summer—working camps, taking ground balls, cheering on his teammates—rather than return home. Shields showed no hesitancy playing on a big stage this summer, but his limited time on the Cape and the Division II competition he plays against during the school year may prompt scouts to put him under a little closer scrutiny next spring. He hit .348-9-36, stole six bases in nine attempts and committed 18 errors as a sophomore at Florida Southern. Scouts say if it all comes together for Shields, he could be a player in the mould of big leaguer Aaron Hill, a former first-rounder.

--ALLAN SIMPSON


SCOUTING REPORT / RYAN JACKSON, ss
University of Miami / Team USA , 2008
Undrafted out of a Miami high school in 2006 due to signability concerns, Jackson has progressed at Miami to become one of the best infield prospects in the country. At 6-foot-3 and 180 pounds, Jackson has a rangy build along the lines of Atlanta Braves all-star third baseman Chipper Jones, with similar athleticism. Jackson is a below-average runner to first base, but has good enough feet to possibly remain at shortstop in the big leagues. He has a plus arm and quick hands, and the smooth actions to make him a true shortstop. At the plate, there are holes in his righthanded swing, but Jackson generates average bat speed and raw pop. Scouts can envision a .270 hitter with 20-plus homers if all goes well. There are some who prefer him at third base in pro ball, and he should hit enough to play on a corner. After struggling as a freshman at Miami , when he hit .236-0-25, Jackson hit .360-4-50 as a sophomore on a team that was ranked No. 1 nationally for most of the 2008 season. His home-run numbers will continue to grow as he gets stronger. Jackson played for USA Baseball’s undefeated college national team over the summer.
--ANUP SINHA
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