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General  | General | 12/30/2008

California: Part 2

Allan Simpson
With San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg and Southern California shortstop Grant Green ranked 1-2 on some national follow lists, and possibly 8-10 more prospects with legitimate chances of going in the first round, California’s 2009 draft class should be special—even by the state’s own high standard.

Though the talent is not as clearly defined and there’s not an obvious player that could emerge as the No. 1 pick, California’s 2010 crop of college and high school prospects is also shaping up to be a prominent lot with the possibility of another 8-10 players being tabbed in the first round.

As part of PG Crosschecker’s in-depth, state-by-state coverage of the top prospects in the 2009, 2010 and 2011 draft classes, which will begin appearing in the form of extensive follow lists on the PG Crosschecker website on Monday, Dec. 29, we’re taking a quick overview of some of the best talent in a handful of states and our focus is on California.

We took more of a historical approach to California in Part I. The state has produced 257 first-rounders through the years, and our emphasis was on the University of Southern California’s complex track record in the draft. (below) Today, we’ll take a forward look and concentrate on the 2010 draft class. Our projection of the Top 10 prospects from California is noted below.

Historically, Stanford (17), Southern California (14), Cal State Fullerton (10), Fresno State (10) and UCLA (9) have been the prime producers of first-round talent (June regular phase only) among California colleges. The University of San Diego has produced just a single first-rounder in 44 years—lefthander Brian Matusz, the fourth overall pick in the 2008 draft.

But the Toreros, coming off a school-record 44 wins, have quietly established themselves as a legitimate college baseball force in California and the program is primed to earn its share of national recognition over the next couple of years—particularly in 2010, when the school has an outside shot of producing three first-round picks.

Righthander Kyle Blair (Dodgers, fifth round), third baseman Victor Sanchez (Cubs, 25th round) and lefthander Sammy Solis (Diamondbacks, 18th round) were all prominent unsigned high-school picks in the 2007 draft. All had their moments as freshmen for the Toreros—notably Blair, who fanned 99 in 75 innings, and Sanchez, who led the team with 12 home runs—but they truly solidified their prospect status with solid summers in the Cape Cod League. Solis ranked No. 14 on PG Crosschecker’s ranking of the Cape’s top 100 prospects, Sanchez was No. 21 and Blair No. 33.

Though Blair graded out third off his Cape performance, California scouts believe that the 6-foot-4, 200-pound righthander has the highest upside of the three, and will be the first of the USD trio to be drafted in 2010—probably in the first 10 picks, possibly in the top five. He complements a fastball in the 90-94 mph range with two above-average breaking balls.

Solis, meanwhile, is a near spitting image of Matusz—right down to his Arizona roots. (For a more in-depth scouting report on Solis, scroll down).

Interestingly, none of the four California schools in the traditionally prospect-rich Pacific-10 Conference is expected to be much of a factor in the early rounds of the 2010 draft, though UCLA has several candidates for the top 10 rounds. USC’s sophomore class—effectively, its 2010 draft class—is almost devoid of high-end talent, largely the result of a coaching change in 2007 that impacted on recruiting.

Led by USD, lower-profile schools like Cal State Fullerton, Long Beach State, Loyola Marymount and possibly Pepperdine are expected to jump to the forefront among California colleges in 2010. In addition to USD’s three potential first-rounders, Cal State Fullerton has two possible first-rounders of its own.

California’s rich high school ranks, meanwhile, project to have an equal impact and should be symbolic of an exceptionally strong 2010 high school class nationally.

While it looked initially like righthanders Dan Child (Jesuit High, Rocklin), Peter Tago (Dana Hills HS, Laguna Niguel) or Nicolas Vander Tuig (Oakdale HS) might be California’s top prep prospect for the 2010 draft, two other righthanders grabbed most of the limelight this fall.

Rudy Acosta (Mount Miguel HS, San Diego), a Mexican citizen who many big league clubs tried to sign before he came to the U.S. in 2007, has wowed scouts with his projectable 6-foot-5, 180-pound frame, polished approach and command of two plus pitches—a 93-94 mph fastball and a nasty slider.

But just when it appeared that Acosta may have climbed to the top of the California 2010 prep list, he was upstaged by Dylan Covey, who pitched one of the most dominating games at the World Wood Bat Association fall championship in Jupiter, Fla., in late October. Covey struck out 17 while allowing just one hit against the Kansas City Royals Scout Team, one of the more prospect-laden teams in the 80-team tournament.

Covey (Marantha HS, Pasadena), who has made a verbal commitment to San Diego, was overpowering in Jupiter with a fastball that was clocked consistently at 94 mph and a sharp, downer 78-80 mph breaking ball.

Obviously, much can and probably will change between now and June 2010, but here’s how we see the top 10 prospects from California for that draft. All project as first-rounders.

Rank Player Pos. School Hometown
1 Kyle Blair RHP U. of San Diego Monte Sereno, Calif.
2 Dylan Covey RHP Marantha HS Pasadena, Calif.
3 Sammy Solis LHP U. of San Diego Litchfield Park, Ariz.
4 Christian Colon SS Cal State Fullerton Anaheim, Calif.
5 Rudy Acosta RHP Mount Miguel HS Spring Valley, Calif.
6 Daniel Renken RHP Cal State Fullerton Cypress, Calif.
7 Nicolas Vander Tuig RHP Oakdale HS Oakdale, Calif.
8 Victor Sanchez 3B U. of San Diego Norwalk, Calif.
9 Devin Lohman SS Long Beach State U. Santa Maria, Calif.
10 Dan Child RHP Jesuit HS Rocklin, Calif.

SAMMY SOLIS, lhp / SCOUTING REPORT

CAPE COD LEAGUE, 2008

The similarities between Solis and Brian Matusz, his former college teammate, are striking. Like Matusz, a fourth-round pick out of an Arizona high school who went on to become the fourth overall pick in this year’s draft after a stellar three-year career at USD, Solis is a big, fluid lefthander from Arizona. He passed up an offer to sign with his home-state Arizona Diamondbacks after striking out 398, the second-best total in state 4-A history, in his high school career and pitching the Arizona Firebirds to the 2006 Connie Mack World Series title by spinning a four-hit shutout in the championship game. Solis couldn’t crack a Matusz-led rotation as a freshman at USD, but went an acceptable 3-1, 3.83 with 12 walks and 42 strikeouts in 49 innings in a swing role. He worked solely as a starter this summer in the Cape Cod League and went 3-2, 2.41 with seven walks and 32 strikeouts in 37 innings. What impressed scouts most was Solis’ excellent command for a big lefthander, and the ease with which the ball came out of his hand. His fastball was a consistent 89-91 mph, and yet he grabbed a 93 when he needed it. He created good sinking action on the pitch, and his ball jumped on hitters from his tall, clean, angular release point. He also threw consistent strikes with his curve and his changeup was a solid third pitch. Solis has two years to get bigger and stronger, and may be throwing 94-95 mph with ease by the time he’s eligible for the draft again in 2010. He easily projects as a possible top-10 pick. Solis is so advanced as a pitcher at this stage in his development that all he really needs to improve on are some of the little things, like holding runners better.

--ALLAN SIMPSON
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