It’s unfair to measure the merits of any baseball draft until years down the road, when all players have had a fair chance to reach the big leagues. We’ll take a close-up look at the 1998 draft—very appropriate since the two biggest free agents this off-season, lefthander C.C. Sabathia and first baseman Mark Teixeira, are products of that draft.
Sabathia, a first-round pick of the Cleveland Indians, and Teixeira, an unsigned ninth-round selection of the Boston Red Sox, were two of 1,445 players that were drafted that year. Of that total, 188—or 13.0 percent—have played Major League Baseball. Some like Sabathia, Teixeira, Matt Holliday (Rockies, seventh round) and Brad Lidge (Astros, first round) have excelled; many others have not.
While we picked the 1998 draft arbitrarily, but ultimately because a lot of the prominent names from that draft either excelled in this year’s World Series or have been in the news this off-season, it was representative of most drafts in terms of the data that we generated.
Of the 188 future big leaguers that were products of that draft, 139 were among 833 players who signed at the time they drafted. That represents a success rate of 16.7 percent. Of the 611 players who did not sign, 49—or 8.0 percent—were subsequently re-drafted and still reached the big leagues. One selection was voided.
The since-abandoned draft-and-follow rule was a key draft strategy 10 years ago, and 48 such players were signed prior to the next year’s draft. Of the 48, eight (or 16.7 percent) became future big leaguers, including Chicago White Sox lefthander Mark Buehrle, a lowly 38th-rounder. Catcher Gerald Laird, a second-round pick of the Oakland A’s, signed for $1 million and in the process became the first draft-and-follow selection ever to sign a seven-figure deal.
Interestingly, the 16.7 percent success rate of 1998 draft picks signing at the time they were selected was identical to the rate of players signing as draft-and-follows.
The Colorado Rockies drafted more players in 1998 who reached the big leagues (11, including Holliday), though four of the 11 didn’t sign. The Milwaukee Brewers and Montreal Expos drafted the fewest (2).
The World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies had the first overall pick that year and selected University of Miami first baseman Pat Burrell, who missed half the 1998 season with a back injury but still batted .432-17-47 in 118 at-bats. He had hit .484 with 23 homers as a freshman, and .409 with 21 homers as a sophomore.
The Phillies signed Burrell to a major league deal that guaranteed him $8 million—then the largest amount ever given to a draft pick signing with the team that drafted him. Included in that figure was a signing bonus of $3.15 million.
By the time the dust had settled on the 1998 draft, the six largest package deals ever given to draft picks signing with the teams that drafted them had been doled out. No. 2 overall pick Mark Mulder received a $3.2 million bonus from the Oakland A’s; No. 3 pick Corey Patterson was given a $3.7 million bonus from the Chicago Cubs; and No. 5 pick J.D. Drew received a guaranteed $7 million deal from the St. Louis Cardinals that included a $3 million bonus.
The Cardinals also agreed to a $3.4 million deal with Chad Hutchinson in the second round that included a $2.3 million bonus, and the New York Yankees forked over $3.9 million in guarantees, including a $2 million bonus, to third-rounder Drew Henson. Both those deals were made to steer the players away from potentially promising football careers as quarterbacks, but they ended up playing in the NFL anyway.
Though the baseball (and football) careers of both Hutchinson and Henson fizzled, Burrell, Mulder, Patterson and Drew all played in the big leagues in 2008. In all, 22 of the 30 first-rounders (or 73.3 percent) in 1998 reached the big leagues, and 14 were still active this season.
The 1998 draft played a prominent role for the Phillies as they won this year’s World Series. Not only was Burrell, who has since departed as a free agent, a prominent member of the team, but so were Lidge, the team’s ace closer who was acquired from Houston prior to the 2008 season, and valuable set-up man Ryan Madson, a ninth-round pick of the Phils in 1998.
On the flip side, the Pittsburgh Pirates endured their 16th straight losing season in 2008 and the 1998 draft was indicative of their continued lack of success. None of the first 14 players the Pirates drafted that year ever played in the big leagues, and the first player that did was someone they didn’t even sign.
With Burrell and numerous other prominent 1998 draft picks either involved in trades or declaring their free agency this year, only four players from the ’98 draft remain with their original teams—Buehrle, Madson, Detroit’s Brandon Inge and Milwaukee’s Bill Hall.
The list of players who did not sign that year is noteworthy, as well, as it includes Teixeira, American League Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee (Orioles, 20th rounder) and former AL Cy Young winner Barry Zito (Rangers, 3rd round). Teixeira lasted until the ninth round of the 1989 draft, but almost certainly would have gone in the top half of the first round had he been more agreeable to signing rather than honoring his commitment to Georgia Tech.
Righthander Mark Prior, a supplemental first-round pick of the Yankees, also went unsigned in 1998. He elected to attend Vanderbilt as a freshman, before later transferring to Southern California. Though he eventually reached the big leagues, only three of the 10 highest unsigned picks that year ever did emerge as big leaguers. Righthander Ben Diggins, a supplemental first-round selection of the Cardinals who opted for the University of Arizona, and Zito, who chose to pitch at USC, were the others.
While the ’98 draft has produced its share of big-league talent, it’s apparent that a number of teams would like a do-over as eight of 30 first-rounders never reached the big leagues and several low-round selections became stars. Here’s a look at the first 10 picks that year, and the players that, in hindsight, should have been selected in those slots.
| 1. |
Phillies |
Pat Burrell, 1b, U. of Miami |
C.C. Sabathia, lhp (Indians, 1) |
| 2. |
Athletics |
Mark Mulder, lhp, Michigan State U. |
#Mark Teixeira, 1b (Red Sox, 9) |
| 3. |
Cubs |
Corey Patterson, of, HS—Kennesaw, Ga. |
Matt Holliday, 3b (Rockies, 7) |
| 4. |
Royals |
Jeff Austin, rhp, Stanford |
Brad Lidge, rhp (Astros, 1) |
| 5. |
Cardinals |
J.D. Drew, of, St. Paul/Northern League |
Barry Zito, lhp (Rangers, 3) |
| 6. |
Twins |
*Ryan Mills, lhp, Arizona State |
Mark Buehrle, lhp (White Sox, 38) |
| 7. |
Reds |
Austin Kearns, of, HS—Lexington, Ky. |
#Cliff Lee, lhp (Orioles, 20) |
| 8. |
Blue Jays |
Felipe Lopez, ss, HS—Altamonte Springs, Fla. |
J.D. Drew, of (Cardinals, 1) |
| 9. |
Padres |
Sean Burroughs, 3b, HS—Long Beach, Calif. |
Pat Burrell, 1b (Phillies, 1) |
| 10. |
Rangers |
Carlos Pena, 1b, Northeastern |
Carlos Pena, 1b (Rangers, 1) |
| *Never reach big leagues |
| #Did not sign |