By David Rawnsley (with contributions from Allan Simpson)

Aside from the obvious existence of San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg at the top end, the defining theme in the 2009 draft, which will be held Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, seems to be the uncertainty and the variables that exist.

There have been an unusually high number of prospects mentioned this year as potential first-round picks, and the various mock drafts that have popped up on the eve of the proceedings are all over the board in their prognostications. One respected media outlet listed more than 50 players as potential first-round picks in a recent exercise of predicting how the first round will unfold.

In a normal year, though, it’s safe to say that there are probably 65-70 different names on the combined draft boards of the 30 major league clubs up to 48 hours before the first selection. But this year may be different as there appears to be less consensus among teams in how the top prospects are viewed.

Much of the reason for the uncertainty comes from the upper end of the draft. The only constant aside from Strasburg being a lock for the Washington Nationals at No. 1 and North Carolina hitting machine Dustin Ackley being an apparent lock for the Seattle Mariners at No. 2, has been the continued quality shown by the top tier of high school pitchers. Ironically, the status of a number of college pitchers, normally the safer demographic, in the top half of the first round is clouding the picture.

Some of the uncertainty and variables that have cropped up involving the elite college arms:

How serious is the forearm injury to Missouri righthander Kyle Gibson?

Did the real Alex White step up for North Carolina this weekend in the NCAA super-regional?

Which teams have removed independent-league righthander Tanner Scheppers for medical reasons, stemming from the injury that essentially knocked him out of the 2008 draft?

Does Vanderbilt lefthander Mike Minor have enough raw stuff to be chosen in the first 10 picks?

What has righthander Aaron Crow, the ninth overall pick a year ago, done in the last 12 months to improve his draft status and earn the money that he turned down last year?

Can Lipscomb’s power-armed lefty Rex Brothers remain a starter at the professional level?

There is another obvious variable this year that may play a profound effect on not just the first round, but all the early rounds: signability—the ability of clubs to sign players for bonuses commensurate with their draft slot. That issue has been compounded in this draft by two factors: the significant downturn in the economy (both in baseball and in real world), and the commissioners office’s latest attempt to lower its recommended bonus slots by 10 percent.

It’s entirely possible we could see a lot more players than normal take a big hit in their draft status due to the financial realities of this draft. Some players whose talent warrants being a top-100 pick could even slide out of the draft altogether—and the attached list is noticeable by the absence of Georgia prep outfielder Donavan Tate, a significant two-sport talent who may have out-priced himself.

The history of the draft and basic human nature tell us that in uncertain times people tend to become more conservative in their decision-making process. The accompanying mock draft encompasses a conservative approach and tends to steer away from teams reaching for traditionally-risky selections, whether for signability reasons or the prospect’s risky profile.

Here’s how we see the first round (32 picks) unfolding:

1. WASHINGTON. Stephen Strasburg, rhp, San Diego State
No reason to change this selection. In fact, it is the only real sure thing in the first round.

2. SEATTLE. Dustin Ackley, 1b-of, North Carolina
I’ve been a bit reluctant to buy in on Ackley as the No. 2 pick for awhile as it is a bit troubling to think about spending big money on a player who has a below-average tool (throwing arm), an average offensive tool (power) and doesn’t even play the position he’s supposed to play at the next level (center field). But most everyone seems to thing Ackley is a lock at No. 2.

3. SAN DIEGO. Tyler Matzek, lhp, Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, Calif.
Matzek was outstanding in his last few outings, and has clearly shot ahead of the other high-school pitchers, as good as many of them have been. With uncertainty all around this spot, the Padres may go for the surest thing. But Southern California shortstop Grant Green and Georgia prep outfielder Donavan Tate have been mentioned more prominently than Matzek.

4. PITTSBURGH. Aaron Crow, rhp, Fort Worth (American Association)
Why do Brad Lincoln, Brian Bullington and John Van Benschoten, all recent Pirates early first-rounders, keep coming to mind as I type this? And how has Crow gone from the ninth pick in 2008 to possibly the fourth pick over the last year by throwing 20 innings in independent ball and getting a year older? There are rumblings the Pirates may just take a player from their short list and pay slot money in this spot to the first player willing to take it, and open up their pocketbooks later on. It may not be a surprise if a player like Florida prep third baseman Bobby Borchering, a consensus mid-first-rounder, is a compromise choice here.

5. BALTIMORE. Alex White, rhp, North Carolina
The Orioles are feeling good after drafting polished, high-profile college performers the past two years in catcher Matt Wieters and lefthander Brian Matusz. White’s strong performance, possibly his best of the season, at the NCAA super-regional over the weekend may have eliminated some of the doubt about picking him this high. Independent-league righthander Tanner Scheppers is a similar pitcher, but may have his own lingering doubts.

6. SAN FRANCISCO. Zack Wheeler, rhp, East Paulding HS, Dallas, Ga.
Positive feedback is a great instruction tool and the Giants have certainly gotten that from 2007 first-rounders Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson, two high-school arms that have excelled in pro ball. Wheeler grades out better than both at the same age, and should not be a signability problem. If Matzek falls to this spot, he could trump Wheeler.

7. ATLANTA. Drew Storen, rhp, Stanford
The Braves are normally the most high-school-oriented team in the draft and Wheeler would be made to order for them in this slot, considering their penchant for local players, if he falls to them. But the Braves have less tolerance for high-school players and their accompanying signability problems than most people realize, and they’ll occasionally go off the board for a player who can help them immediately. They especially appreciate plus stuff and plus pitchability, and Storen had both qualities this spring as a dominant closer for Stanford.

8. CINCINNATI. Mike Minor, lhp, Vanderbilt
Minor would look very good in the Reds rotation in a few years as a nice complement to some of their power-armed righthanders. It shouldn’t take long for the polished lefty to get there, either. It seems apparent that the Reds will go the college route, and Green and Missouri righthander Kyle Gibson are other possibilities.

9. DETROIT. Jacob Turner, rhp, Westminster Christian Academy, St. Charles, Mo.
This seems like an obvious choice for the Tigers, given Rick Porcello’s meteoric rise. The Tigers have shown no hesitancy to spend big money in the first round for the right player, and Turner won’t come cheap. By the way, has anyone noticed that the Tigers, under the director of former Twins minor league pitching coordinator Rick Knapp, lead the AL in team ERA?

10. WASHINGTON. Tanner Scheppers, rhp, St. Paul (American Association)
The Nationals have two selections in the first 10 picks for the first time in draft history, and it’s impossible to tell how they’ll handle this pick after taking Strasburg at No. 1. Missouri righthander Kyle Gibson and Kennesaw State righthander Chad Jenkins have been mentioned prominently here, but Scheppers has a higher upside than either. It’s difficult to tell, though, if the Nationals are among the teams that have become increasingly wary of Scheppers’ medical issues. But with Strasburg already in the fold, how do you pass on another potential top-of-the-rotation power arm?

11. COLORADO. Rex Brothers, lhp, Lipscomb
There should be a number of attractive college pitchers, especially lefthanders, on the board at this point and it’s just a matter of which one the Rockies like the best. White might have been the choice here until his powerful weekend performance.

12. KANSAS CITY. Grant Green, ss, Southern California
Green seemed like a sure bet to be one of the first 3-4 selections early on, but has become one of the wild cards in the draft. It’s more of a talent issue, rather than the signability or medical issues impacting other top prospects. The Summer ’08 version of Green would never have lasted nearly this long. In a perfect world, the Royals might prefer a high-school player here and Texas righthander Shelby Miller, and possibly even North Carolina catcher Wil Myers, somewhat of a darkhorse, would be logical candidates.

13. OAKLAND. Mike Leake, rhp, Arizona State
The A’s have gone increasingly to younger arms with raw stuff in their drafts in recent years, but Leake may be too good to pass up at this point, especially for a team that values surety and approach as much as Oakland does. Save for the massive strikeout numbers, Leake matched Strasburg’s performance this spring. Two local college products, Stanford’s Storen and Sacramento State outfielder Tim Wheeler, also hold appeal to the A’s.

14. TEXAS. Shelby Miller, rhp, Brownwood (Texas) HS
The Rangers have seen the wisdom of investing in strong young arms to bolster a farm system that was near barren of pitching the past few years, and there is no reason that should change. There is no stronger high-school arm that should be on the board for them more than Miller, who conveniently is a Texan and lives about two hours from Arlington. It’s one of the more natural fits in the first round, though another in-state prep pitcher, lefthander Matthew Purke, might be available for the taking, as well, though his price tag might be too excessive.

15. CLEVELAND. Eric Arnett, rhp, Indiana
Some interesting athletes could start coming onto the draft board about this point, but Cleveland’s recent draft history is not full of reaching for that type of player. College pitching seems more appropriate, and Arnett is not only an Ohio native but had a seamless spring—and is a top athlete himself. Leake and Scheppers would also fit, if still available.

16. ARIZONA. Bobby Borchering, 3b, Bishop Verot HS, Fort Myers, Fla.
The Diamondbacks would not hesitate to grab an independent leaguer again (Scheppers) or a significant local product (Leake), if still available, but the switch-hitting Borchering emerged as the top high-school hitter in the draft—something Arizona fans could appreciate in their lineup in the short term, but also in the long term.

17. ARIZONA. Chad Jenkins, rhp, Kennesaw State
With the second of back-to-back picks, the Diamondbacks might see a bit of staff ace Brandon Webb in Jenkins, whose draft stock steadily rose throughout the spring. Brothers, another college pitcher with impressive raw stuff who make a significant climb this spring, would be a logical candidate, as well.

18. FLORIDA. Mike Trout, of, Millville (N.J.) HS
No two talent evaluators appreciate high-ceiling, five-tool-type talent more than the Marlins front office duo of Jim Fleming and Dan Jennings. Trout fits the profile, but Borchering comes close—and he’s a local product.

19. ST. LOUIS. Kyle Gibson, rhp, Missouri
With the recent revelations of his forearm injury, it’s easy to see Gibson falling—perhaps even right out of the first round just as Scheppers did in 2008. But if Gibson’s injury passes the review of Cardinals doctors, it would be difficult for the Cardinals to pass on a home-state star. If they have reservations, Brothers or Minor might still be available from the strong pool of college lefthanders.

20. TORONTO. A.J. Pollock, of, Notre Dame
The Blue Jays took a liking to two Oklahoma lefthanders this spring, Oklahoma State’s Andrew Oliver and prepster Chad James, and Kennesaw State righthander Kyle Heckathorn is also a possibility if they prefer an arm. But Pollock, a Connecticut native and Notre Dame standout, has intriguing tools and will be scooped up soon, if not by the Blue Jays.

21. HOUSTON. Matthew Purke, lhp, Klein HS, Spring, Texas
Initially seen as the best prep pitcher in the draft, Purke has scared away many teams with his excessive bonus demands but those could be compromised for his hometown Astros. It would be a coup for Houston, badly in need of impact talent to beef up a depleted farm system, to nab the talented southpaw at this point in the draft. Should Purke’s asking price scare off even the Astros, three other prominent Texas high-school products, outfielders Randal Grichuk, Slade Heathcott and Everett Williams, might be more to their liking.

22. MINNESOTA. Wil Myers, c, Wesleyan Christian Academy, Thomasville, N.C.
The Twins hit it big with a high-school catcher eight years ago in Joe Mauer, and could again in 2009. Myers will never win a batting championship but scouts say he has the kind of power that rarely comes around in a catcher. The Twins drafted Louisiana State outfielder Jared Mitchell in the 10^th round three years ago, after thinking long and hard about taking him in the first round before being scared off at the last minute by his football ambitions. The interest in Mitchell remains strong.

23. CHICAGO WHITE SOX. Tony Sanchez, c, Boston College
Sanchez’ name has been mentioned all over the latter part of the first round and frequently above this slot. Catching is always at a premium in the draft, and remember that Stanford’s Jason Castro shot up the draft list late a year ago. Athletic outfielders are always a priority for the White Sox, too, so Trout (if still available), Mitchell, Texan Everett Williams and Puerto Rican Reymund Fuentes are sure to be in the discussion.

24. LOS ANGELES ANGELS. Matt Hobgood, rhp, Norco (Calif.) HS
Hobgood has significant talent, and yet has never quite broken into the upper echelon of the elite crop of 2009 high-school pitchers (Matzek, Wheeler, Turner, Miller, Purke), but he’s close. He also lives in the Angels backyard, and that club is partial to its own. Matt Davidson is also a significant southern California prep talent, and he holds similar appeal to the Angels.

25. LOS ANGELES ANGELS. Jeff Malm, 1b, Bishop Gorman HS, Las Vegas, Nev.
The record-setting Malm has possibly the most advanced high-school bat in the draft, but few clubs see him as a true first-rounder. The Angels have a known special interest in Malm, though, and it is one of the more persistent draft rumors around, so let’s run with it. The Angels could probably get him with one of their sandwich picks, but why risk it?

26. MILWAUKEE. Jared Mitchell, of, Louisiana State
Milwaukee needs pitching in its system and would consider some of the better arms that will still be available here, but drafting the best prospect available who is also signable applies here. There are no better athletes still available on our draft board than Georgia prep outfielder Donavan Tate and Mitchell, but Mitchell’s signability is a better fit for the Brewers.

27. SEATTLE. Rich Poythress, 1b, Georgia
New Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik loves power bats and the Mariners have precious few at any level in their system. Remember Zduriencik’s controversial pick of Matt LaPorta in 2007 with the seventh pick, when he was the Brewers scouting director? Poythress is the 2009 equivalent, only 20 picks later. Adding two mature college bats in Ackley and Poythress would change the Mariners prospect dynamic immediately.

28. BOSTON. Max Stassi, c, Yuba City (Calif.) HS
The word has been out all spring that the Red Sox are going to pick a catcher, and Stassi has shone for Boston’s entire front-office brass. In the outside chance that Sanchez, a Boston College product, is still available, it might be too tempting to pass on a local kid considered the best college catcher in the draft. The Red Sox pulled a surprise by selecting Casey Kelly, a two-sport, two-way product, with their pick in the first round, and Kelly’s clone, Mississippi prep shortstop/righthander David Renfroe, is an equivalent talent and would be available.

29. NEW YORK YANKEES. James Paxton, lhp, Kentucky
The Yankees could make a splash here and jump on Georgia prep outfielder Donavan Tate, possibly the best athlete in the entire draft, but it would come at a significant cost. Texas high-school outfielder Slade Heathcott may be the closest thing to a five-tool talent still left on the board, so he’s a distinct possibility. There’s also a distinct possibility that Purke may still be available, and the Yankees would have a tough time passing on him. In the end, the Yankees have invested very heavily in top-round pitchers the past three years and there is no reason to think that approach will change. Paxton seems to be one of the forgotten prospects of this draft, but might be an ideal fit for the Yankees.

30. TAMPA BAY. Brett Jackson, of, California
The Rays should have a whole board of quality athletes to pick from here and you know, being the Rays, they will be looking hard for the best athlete available. Texas prep outfielder Everett Williams is a possibility, so is Sacramento State outfielder Tim Wheeler. Jackson isn’t their typical high -school pick, but he certainly is that level of athlete.

31. CHICAGO CUBS. Andrew Oliver, lhp, Oklahoma State
Oliver would become the first player ever selected in the first round with the 31st pick, courtesy of the new draft rules that allow extra picks for teams that did not sign their previous year’s first-round selection. Had he shown signs of a better breaking ball this spring, Oliver would go much higher. Pollock (if he slides) and Kansas prep righthander Garrett Gould are also possibilities here.

32. COLORADO. Slade Heathcott, of, Texas HS, Texarkana, Texas
Heathcott was the hot new name leading up to the draft, but he does not come without multiple layers of risk. Still, he is an elite athlete who grades out plus in just about every area on the field. If the Rockies feel the risk is too high, they could consider Sacramento State outfielder Tim Wheeler among players not identified with the 31 selections above.