It has been mentioned time and time again that the 2009 draft will be defined by pitching. That is nothing new, but as we approach the draft it appears as though the 2009 draft may see a record number of arms selected in the first round.
By looking at top prospect lists here and elsewhere (19 of the top 26 prospects on PG Crosschecker’s list are pitchers), having conversations with those that have some inside insight to what teams are focusing on which players, while even taking a couple of peeks at how others are projecting the first round to shake out, I have counted approximately 25 pitchers that have been mentioned as legitimate first-round candidates. Of course, not all of these pitchers are going to go in the first round, and there likely will be a name or two that sneaks into the first round that isn’t on my rough list of 25 pitchers.
During the 2001 draft 20 pitchers were selected in round one. 19 went in ’04 and 18 in ’06. I’m guessing at least 20 pitchers will be taken this year.
Compounding this is the fact that there aren’t any can’t-miss hitters outside of Dustin Ackley that are making enough noise to sway teams from taking advantage of the glut of power arms. Teams drafting towards the top have already hinted that they do indeed to take advantage of the favorable depth, similar to last year when teams took advantage of the number of college bats that were available.
Early on it looked as though the college crop would dominate the early selections, but that has changed significantly as the spring has progressed. Andrew Oliver and Alex White are no longer considered locks for the top 10 picks (Oliver may not go in the first round), but Zack Wheeler, Shelby Miller and Tyler Matzek are. Jacob Turner and Matthew Purke could join them as long as lofty bonus aspirations don’t cause teams to pass on them early.
Matt Hobgood and Chad James have also improved their stocks significantly, while Garrett Gould, Keyvius Sampson and Tyler Skaggs look to sneak into the later part of the first round.
Moving back to the college crop, independent pitchers Aaron Crow and Tanners Scheppers, holdovers from last year’s draft class, instantly add two exciting power arms. Lefties James Paxton and Rex Brothers showed off power stuff this spring to vault up draft boards, and Eric Arnett was able to use some time with the Hoosier basketball team to hone his athleticism and coordination leading to a big junior campaign.
As projected closers Jason Stoffel and Ben Tootle struggled somewhat this year, Drew Storen flourished, as did fellow draft-eligible sophomore Sam Dyson. Chad Jenkins joined teammate Kyle Heckathorn as a big-bodied righty with first-round potential.
Stephen Strasburg, Kyle Gibson and Mike Leake were consistently dominant all spring, while Mike Minor is still considered a premium, early pick despite struggling with his own consistency.
Again, outside of Ackley, who many expect to go second overall, the first 15 or more picks may be dominated by pitchers.
Bats can be had
I don’t mean to overplay the lack of impact bats, because as I noted in my own column a few weeks ago, there are some good hitters to be had. The strength in the pitching available makes the unbalance that much more recognizable, and the hitters just aren’t going to define this year’s draft like they did last year or in 2005.
If there is a strength, it could be in the outfield. A quintet of outfielders at the college level and four more at the high school level could factor into the first round. Four of those players, Mike Trout, Tim Wheeler, Brett Jackson and Everett Williams, could sneak into the top 20 overall picks, with Jackson and Trout being rumored to be of interest to the Nationals with the 10th overall pick.
The problem with this group is projecting just how much of an impact they will make at the plate, as none of their swings are without flaws.
But there is also plenty to like. In addition to those listed above, LeVon Washington and Puerto Rico’s Raymond Fuentes could be first-round surprises thanks to their game changing speed for teams that still place a premium on that tool, while Jared Mitchell is arguably the finest athlete and potentially most dynamic player in this year’s draft. A.J. Pollock is on the opposite end of the tools/polish spectrum, which isn’t meant to take anything away from his own athleticism, but he isn’t on the same level as an athlete as Jackson, Williams, Washington, Fuentes and Mitchell.
Kentrail Davis is the best pure hitter of this group. He is an exciting offensive player, but may be a ‘tweener in that he doesn’t have enough speed, instincts and arm strength for center, and may not have enough prototypical power for left.
Sophomore Sensations
Quite a few draft-eligible sophomores, and one draft-eligible freshman, factor to go in the early rounds of the draft. That isn’t particularly unusual (well, the freshman addition is), but what is unusual is that of the six early-round underclassmen (Storen, Dyson, Davis, Brooks Raley, D.J. LeMahieu and Chris Dwyer -- the freshman) only one is draft-eligible due to a red-shirt (Dyson).
As David Rawnsley pointed out in a feature story a week ago, underclassmen typically are more difficult to sign since the added year (or more) of eligibility gives such players added negotiating power. However, most players taken in the early rounds, no matter where they are during their career, end up signing, as high-six and seven-figure bonuses are just too good for most to turn down.
Two-way Talents
There isn’t an abundance of two-way stars, but there are a few interesting players to keep an eye on.
The Big 12’s duo of Raley and Aaron Miller have both established themselves on the mound this year, particularly Miller, who previously had more value as a power hitting, strong-armed right-fielder. Miller has been pitching in the low-90s this spring with very good fastball command and a good, yet inconsistent, slider. Raley pitches more in the upper-80s, but has a loose arm and a solid three-pitch repertoire. He may have been more impressive this spring as the Aggies’ number two hitter, leading the team in hitting for most of the year and also proving to be one of the nation’s more dangerous stolen base threats.
USC’s Robert Stock has had an impressive spring since being inserted into the Trojans’ weekend rotation. He may not have a prototypical top-of-the-order arsenal, but he has a pretty good three-pitch mix, and with good athleticism and an arm with limited miles on it, he could go in the early rounds with a future potential as a third or fourth starter. If all else fails, he wouldn’t be the first player in recent years to do the previous unthinkable by returning to his previously heralded status as a left-handed slugger that also happened to catch. That remains his preference, but he’s going to get drafted early for his arm.
Hobgood, Mychal Givens, Brooks Pounders, Slade Heathcott, Colton Cain and David Renfroe all have starred this spring both as pitchers and as hitters. Givens went from a likely shortstop before last summer, to a pitcher, and back to a likely shortstop. Hobgood of course goes as a pitcher despite a mammoth year at the plate, while Pounders, Heathcott and Cain continue to be looked both ways, but I’m guessing Pounders and Cain are initially developed as pitchers with Heathcott being groomed as a multi-tooled outfielder.
Renfroe has emerged as the most interesting of this group. With great overall athleticism he has drawn comparisons to Casey Kelly from last year for being in the exact same position. Renfroe may not be the same kind of athlete that Kelly is, but he may have a higher baseball IQ at the same stage of their careers.
Signability
Since David Rawnsley tackled signability, which is often tied to representation, in his feature story mentioned above, I’m not going to spend much time on that subject. However, signability always plays a big factor on draft day, and this year is going to be no different.
Scott Boras is the name that needs to be mentioned, although I always need to make the disclaimer that I do so without the usual venom fans associate with him. Several of the top draft-eligible players have aligned themselves with the super-agent, and I can say pretty confidently that we’re going to see one or two players fall much further than expected.
Who is the most likely to do so? First of all I think Kentrail Davis will return for his junior year at Tennessee, where he will be in a better position to re-affirm himself as a legitimate first-round pick.
I’m going to guess that one of Jacob Turner and Matthew Purke slides to the latter parts of the first round, where teams like the Red Sox and Yankees may be anxiously waiting to take such a player.
Donovan Tate is my final candidate, not only due to his affiliation with Boras, but because he does have a two-sport career to contend with (although I believe his heart is in baseball). I think most teams consider him one of the best players available, but if one of the teams in the top 10-12 picks don’t take him, he could slide a long, long way.
What happened to White?
Alex White is one player that could be suffering a significant late-season tumble, and not because of any signability concerns. North Carolina’s ace has become unraveled over the past month or so, and hasn’t looked as dominant as he could for most of the spring. As one devoted and respected baseball scribe I speak with pointed out to me over the weekend, White’s control has never been particularly sharp, so the number of walks he has issued this spring shouldn’t be that big of a surprise.
And his stuff hasn’t missed a beat either, and having seen him pitch in the ACC tournament over a week ago it’s clear that he still has some of the best pure stuff in the nation with an absolutely electric arm. He’s one of those pitchers that is a no-hitter waiting to happen every time he takes the mound.
The same was true for former Tar Heel Daniel Bard, who tumbled in the 2006 draft to late in the first round due to some command issues coupled with signability issues. Bard was one of the hot topics during spring training this year, reportedly hitting 102 in the Red Sox camp. He started the season in the minors, but has been up with the big-league club for the last month after dominating AAA batters.
One thing that has led to Bard’s success is his development as a power reliever. White has a similar profile, in that there are quite a few people that don’t feel his delivery will hold up over time if he continues to be used and developed as a starting pitcher. He has a good enough arsenal, but his arm action lead many to believe bad things could be in his future.
I’ve never tried to play pitching coach, but all I know is that when I recently saw White pitch he was throwing in the 94-97 range with a very good slider over the first two innings of the game. While he was the victim of some bad luck, he fell apart in the third inning, and was removed from the game. His name is becoming less and less commonplace in conversations discussing the candidates of the teams that draft among the top 10 picks.
Since the stuff is still there I think serious injury can be ruled out. Control issues can be addressed with the right pitching coach, and unless his mechanics have to be completed re-tooled, I’m sure the right organization and staff can help get White back on track. I’m sure many of us have seen White when he’s on, and that memory alone just makes it difficult for me to think there’s a chance he falls out of the top 10, much less five.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.