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College  | Story | 6/4/2015

2015 Super Regional Preview

Patrick Ebert
Mike Rooney
Photo: LSU Athletics




Left-side of the Bracket (Friday through Sunday)


Charlottesville (Va.) Super Regional – Maryland at Virginia
Davenport Field

Maryland

Mike Shawaryn (Photo: Greg Fiume / Maryland Athletics)
Maryland advanced to a Super Regional for the second consecutive season having knocked off the No. 1 overall seed, UCLA, in Los Angeles. In an unpredictable twist of fate, Maryland will play at Virginia in a Super Regional for the second year in a row. Maryland features the best starting pitcher in this matchup with Mike Shawaryn. Shawaryn has 13 wins and he is one of the favorites to be National Pitcher of the Year. Center fielder LaMonte Wade is finally healthy and he dominated the Los Angeles Regional offensively and defensively. Lefthander Alex Robinson, who was up to 95 mph last weekend, and closer Kevin Mooney headline a deep bullpen that features both high velocity and out pitches while command has been an issue at times. Catcher Kevin Martir is an x-factor for the Terps as his toughness and leadership provides this team with an unmistakeable swagger.

Virginia
Virginia went undefeated in the Lake Elsinore Regional to advance. Virginia sat at 10-14 in the ACC with two weekends to play but the Cavs rallied with a 5-1 finish to earn their 12th straight Regional appearance. Uber-talented sophomore Connor Jones has emerged as the staff ace but he still struggles to manage his pitch count at times. Veteran lefthander Brandon Waddell, who has had a challenging junior season, turned in one of his best starts of the season in the Regional. Junior outfielder Joe McCarthy's return from back surgery has stabilized the lineup but his numbers aren't up to his previous two seasons. Freshmen Pavin Smith and Adam Haseley will be counted on heavily while sophomore slugger Matt Thaiss is enjoying a breakout season.

PG's Pick: Maryland
Maryland is more experienced and more talented than Virginia. Both teams are potentially missing a key starting arm (Nathan Kirby for Virginia and Brian Shaffer for Maryland) and that also favors the Terps with their deep bullpen. Maryland is more than familiar with Davenport Field and that also lends itself to Maryland making its first ever trip to Omaha.



Fayetteville (Ark.) Super Regional – Missouri State at Arkansas
Baum Stadium

Missouri State

Tyler Spoon (Photo: Walt Beazley - Arkansas Communications)

 Missouri State earned a Top 8 National Seed but must travel to Fayetteville because they share Hammons Field with the St. Louis Cardinals' AA affiliate, the Springfield Cardinals of the Texas League. The Bears are a veteran but unspectacular position player group known for their efficiency. Center fielder Tate Matheny, the son of St. Louis Cardinals' skipper Mike Matheny, is the most dynamic player in this group. Missouri State's calling card is a two-headed monster at the front of their rotation, led by righthander Jon Harris, who runs his fastball into the mid-90s and he should be a first round selection next Monday. Matt Hall owns the best lefthanded breaking ball in college baseball and he led the nation in strikeouts.

Arkansas
Head coach Dave Van Horn has taken five teams to Omaha which leads all SEC coaches. Arkansas started the season a pedestrian 15-15 but have gone 25-7 since that time. The Razorbacks are led by Golden Spikes Award semifinalist Andrew Benintendi who projects to be a first round pick on Monday. This is a veteran position player group led by grinders Bobby Wernes, Michael Bernal, and Tyler Spoon. The Razorback pitching staff has been uncharacteristically inconsistent in 2015 and it looks like Dominic Taccolini may be done for the season. Ace Trey Killian and closer Zach Jackson will have to be sharp in this series. The tickets for this Super Regional sold out on the first day so the atmosphere at Baum Stadium should be electric.

PG's Pick: Arkansas
Missouri State will need to win the first two games of this Super Regional in order to advance as Harris and Hall are the one advantage the Bears possess here. It feels foolish to bet against Dave Van Horn though and the home faithful also provide an edge for the Razorbacks. This should go to a third game with Arkansas taking the rubber game to go to Omaha.



Coral Gables (Fla.) Super Regional – VCU at Miami
Mark Light Field

VCU

Zack Collins (Photo: Richard Lewis / Miami Athletics)

 VCU is the fifth No. 4 seed to advance to the Super Regional round since the advent of this format in 1999. Two of those other No. 4 seeds were Fresno State in 2008 (National Champions) and Stony Brook in 2012 (CWS participant). VCU is one of the hottest teams in the country having won 14 of their last 15 games. This pitching staff, which finished the regular season 15th in the country in team ERA, is also one of the nation's most experienced as the five main arms are all seniors. Lefthanded starters JoJo Howie and Heath Dwyer join righthander Matt Blanchard in the rotation while lefty Matt Lees and hard-throwing righty Daniel Concepcion form a dominant bullpen. Lefthanded hitting shortstop Vimael Machin has been ultra-hot down the stretch and both he and Concepcion are natives of Puerto Rico.

Miami
Miami is trying to break a six-year Omaha slump and they will be making their first Super Regional appearance since 2010. This may be the most physically imposing lineup of the remaining 16 teams and the Hurricanes averaged 8.4 runs per game in the regular season, good for second nationally. David Thompson has had a monstrous season, leading the country with 19 home runs and 85 RBI, and Zack Collins isn't that far behind him with 15 and 70 respectively. Run prevention is the one concern for Miami as they finished the regular season 104th nationally in fielding percentage. This problem area is compounded by the fact that the Miami pitching staff lacks out pitches, finishing 87th in the country in strikeouts per nine innings. However, submariner Cooper Hammond and the hard-throwing Bryan Garcia have been very good at the back of the bullpen.

PG's Pick: Miami
This is an intriguing matchup because of the senior leadership of VCU. The other complication here is Miami's inconsistent run prevention. In the end, the Hurricane offense is too much and Miami returns to Omaha.



Gainesville (Fla.) Super Regional – Florida State at Florida
McKethan Stadium

Florida State

Logan Shore (Photo: Tim Casey)

 The Seminoles may be the nation's most unpredictable team. They were swept at Notre Dame and at home by Clemson yet they righted the ship in time to win the ACC Tournament. D.J. Stewart is a premium lefthanded hitter and he leads the country in walks by a large margin. As is the norm, the 'Noles lead the nation in walks as a team. First baseman Quincy Nieporte has emerged as a strong complement to Stewart and he hit two home runs in the Regional. Conversely, Florida State has struggled both on the mound and defensively at times. They entered the postseason ranked 80th in team ERA and 196th in fielding percentage. Righthander Boomer Biegalski features a plus changeup and he has stepped forward as the ace of the staff.

Florida
Florida breezed through their Regional and the Gators remain one of the favorites to win the National Title. Logan Shore is steady at the front of the rotation but the recent dominance of lefthander A.J. Puk is the separator for Florida. Since the beginning of May, things have finally clicked for Puk and he has been into the upper-90s with his fastball in each of his starts since. The freshman class is the heart and soul of this team led by catcher Mike Rivera, slugger J.J. Schwarz and second baseman Dalton Guthrie. Closer Taylor Lewis has been a difference maker with his low- to mid-90s low-slot fastball, and when the Gators get good starting pitching, they are almost impossible to beat.

PG's Pick: Florida
Florida is the more complete team but this intense rivalry tends to neutralize roster imbalance.  The two factors that separate the two teams will be defense and home-field advantage. Florida entered the postseason with the nation's best fielding percentage and they will be tough to beat in Gainesville.



Right-side of the Bracket (Saturday through Monday)


Baton Rouge (La.) Super Regional – Louisiana at LSU
Alex Box Stadium

Louisiana

Alex Lange (Photo: LSU Athletics)

 Prior to the season, and even in the early stages of the year, much was made of the losses Louisiana suffered after their phenomenal 58-10 season a year ago. There was plenty of talent to point to, but it was difficult to know who of the numerous newcomers to the team would step up. Look no further than three key players, starting with a pair of freshmen, closer Dylan Moore and starter Gunner Leger. Moore was one of the most dominant stoppers in the nation, regardless of class, recording 13 saves and a 1.42 ERA in 31 appearances that spanned 50 2/3 innings. Leger provided 106 2/3 innings of his own, with a 2.87 mark, second only to Moore. And no one would have expected LSU-Eunice transfer Stefan Trosclair to post a .343/.443/.648 triple slash with 32 extra-base hits that includes 16 bombs as well as 15 stolen bases in 18 attempts.

LSU
Things seemed to go fairly easy for LSU last weekend, as the projected Johnny Wholestaff, Alex Lange and Jared Poche rotation worked perfectly, and got better with each of their three games. Although both have experienced a few brief ups and downs this year, Poche, a sophomore lefthander, and Lange, a freshman righthander, have formed a difficult 1-2 starting punch to contend with, especially when you consider their high-octane offense. Like the Cajuns, the Tigers have received big contributions from numerous young players, including a (redshirt) freshman closer of their own, Jesse Stallings, who has notched 12 saves this year. They have a .319 team batting average, a 2.84 staff ERA and a .977 fielding percentage, all which point to as balanced of a team as one could find.

PG's Pick: LSU
Without a doubt the Box will be rocking this weekend as these long-time, in-state foes face one another, but ultimately the Tigers will prove to be too much for the Ragin' Cajuns this weekend. For as good as Louisiana's top of the lineup is, which includes four players hitting .324 or better, LSU boasts five such hitters and three others not far behind that mark. Every batter in the lineup is a threat to play hero, and they also have a very deep bullpen to turn to.



Fort Worth (Texas) Super Regional – Texas A&M at TCU
Lupton Stadium

Texas A&M

Alex Young (Photo: TCU Athletics)

 The Aggies survived arguably the most entertaining Regional matchup against the Cal Bears last weekend, winning two of the three games they faced one another by a total of three runs (and losing the other one 1-2 in 14 innings). Lefthander Matt Kent provided not one but two dominant seven-inning performances, moving to 9-1 on the year in the second of those starts to advance. Ryan Hendrix was huge in the team's loss to Cal, striking out 12 Bears in 6 2/3 while serving as the hard-luck loser in a game that he allowed just one run to score, the walkoff winner. And in just his third appearance of the year, and his first start, Tyler Stubblefield gave the Aggies five much-needed innings on Sunday. But this team is all about run production, as despite last weekend's outcomes they can turn a close game ugly in a matter of batters with one of the most dangerous lineups of any team still in the mix for Omaha.

TCU
The Horned Frogs are incredibly lucky to be here. Down seven runs heading into the bottom of the eighth inning in Monday's game against N.C. State, TCU definitely had some good fortune on their side as a collection of errors, hits, balks and other mishaps on the field helped them storm back. For as good as the pitching has been all year, lefthander Alex Young has not been as sharp down the stretch. Senior Preston Morrison seems to step up for the biggest challenge, and while their offense lacks pop, their batters work deep into counts, steal bases when on and play near flawless defense on the field. Meaning, they rarely beat themselves, which allow them to capitalize when their opponents aren't quite as fortunate.

PG's Pick: TCU
Pitching and defense wins championships, and TCU has the edge over A&M in both categories. However, Texas A&M is the clear winner when it comes to sheer firepower if the best-of-three series comes down to getting past a pitcher in Young, who may have hit the wall late in the year, on Monday.



Champaign (Ill.) Super Regional – Vanderbilt at Illinois
Illinois Field

Vanderbilt

Walker Buehler (Photo: Vanderbilt Athletics)

 The Commodres have been playing better all-around baseball as of late, particularly on offense, as they've won nine of their last 12 games with wins over teams that are either currently ranked in the Top 25 or were at some point this season in Louisville, Missouri, Texas A&M, Indiana and Radford. The win over Radford, their most recent, was a 21-0 thrasing on Monday to secure their Super Regional appearance. They have averaged over nine runs per game between the SEC Tournament and their three Regional games, and the starting trio of Carson Fulmer, Philip Pfeifer and Walker Buehler has seemed to have gelled as a unit down the stretch. And as documented all season long, Vanderbilt has a deep stable of arms to turn to should any of their starting three struggle. This will be a very difficult team to deny a return trip to Omaha.

Illinois
The Illini staff has performed as admirably as Vanderbilt's, arguably more so, with a strong starting trio of their own in Kevin Duchene, Drasen Johnson and John Kravetz. Duchene and Johnson each went the distance during Regional play, moving to 11-1 and 10-3 respectively on the year, while saving their all-world closer Tyler Jay for their last game which was fortuitous after Kravetz only lasted 4 2/3 innings. Overall the Illini only used five pitchers last weekend, but they won't be as lucky this weekend facing a powerful Commodores lineup. Big Ten Player of the Year David Kerian continues to swing a hot bat, going 5-for-8 with two doubles, two homers, four walks, three runs scored and five driven in last weekend. Collectively Illinois recorded 10, 10 and 13 hits in their three games last weekend as things to contninue to click extremely well for them.

PG's Pick: Vanderbilt
As difficult as it is to bet against the Illini this year, it's equally difficult to do so against the defending College World Series Champions. In the same vein, it's hard to see either Saturday starter, Fulmer and Duchene, losing the first game of the series. In the end it's going to come down to Vanderbilt's depth of talent, a more lethal lineup from top to bottom and the seemingly unlimited number of power bullpen arms they can turn to.



Louisville (Ky.) Super Regional – Cal State Fullerton at Louisville
Jim Patterson Stadium

Cal State Fullerton

Corey Ray (Photo: University of Louisville Sports Information)

 Everyone knew that Cal State Fullerton had a young team coming into the year, but given their long history of success it wasn't surprising to see that talent come together midway through the season, dominating the Big West Conference with a 19-5 record and turning around their season. Thomas Eshelman continues to serve as the rock for the entire team, setting the stage to open a series while usually coming out on top, something he's done since the moment he stepped foot on campus. Justin Garza can make the same claim, but unfortunately his season is over due to injury, but taking his place has been freshman John Gavin. And this is a team, just like they always have, that does the little things well by advancing runners, putting pressure on the opposing defense and stretching bases while throwing strikes and not issuing free passes.

Louisville
The Cardinals continued to make it look easy last weekend in the Regional they hosted, making quick work of Morehead State and Michigan to advance before the weekend was over. Kyle Funkhouser bounced back with a strong start in the first game, Brendan McKay provided another seven-plus innings as did Josh Rogers. The teams' Nos. 1-4 hitters, Sutton Whiting, Nick Solak, Corey Ray and Brendan McKay, are all hitting above .300, and they also are a dangerous team once their hitters reach base with 123 stolen bases. Their bullpen is deep and the coaching staff is fully confident to turn to numerous arms in late and close games. And once the game is turned over to triple-digit flirting Zack Burdi, game over.

PG's Pick: Louisville
For as impressive as Cal State Fullerton's run has been late in the year, Louisville head coach Dan McDonnell is going to have his troops focused on the bigger prize as the look to advance to Omaha for the third straight year.
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