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College | Story | 4/2/2015

College Baseball Field of 64

Mike Rooney

Photo: Perfect Game

Midseason Awards | Seminoles top Gators mid-week

Selection Monday is a mere eight weeks from this past Monday so it’s time to start our Nostradamus impersonation. There is obviously a ton of time for things to shake themselves out but here is a first attempt at Regional predictions.

The process splits into two categories: selection and seeding. Selection breaks down into 31 automatic bids followed by 33 at-large bids. Automatic bids are won on the field whereas the at large bids are awarded by the Selection Committee.

The seeding we will focus on consists of the Top 8 National Seeds followed by the “next eight” Regional hosts. The Top 8 National Seeds have earned the right to host all the way to Omaha. Home field advantage plays an enormous role in this tournament.

We will first list the 31 automatic bids by conference, and this is only because it affects who is left for at-large bids. Since a team’s entire “body of work” is so critical to this process, a midseason prediction is more fun than function. But it is interesting to see where teams stand at this juncture. And we’re off.

Records listed as of Monday, March 30

Automatic Bids:

Conference	School	Conference	School
America East	Stony Brook	MEAC	Delaware State
American	UCF	Missouri Valley	Dallas Baptist
Atlantic 10	St. Louis	Mountain West	Nevada
ACC	Florida State	Northeast	Central Connecticut State
Atlantic Sun	North Florida	Ohio Valley	Southeast Missouri State
Big Ten	Maryland	Pac-12	UCLA
Big 12	Texas Christian	Patriot	Navy
Big East	St. John's	SEC	Louisiana State
Big South	Coastal Carolina	Southern	Wofford
Big West	UC Santa Barbara	Southland	Southeastern Louisiana
Colonial	UNC-Wilmington	SWAC	Alabama State
Conference USA	Rice	Summit	Oral Roberts
Horizon	Wright State	Sun Belt	Georgia Southern
Ivy	Columbia	WCC	San Diego
MAAC	Canisius	WAC	Sacramento State
MAC	Kent State

Top 8 National Seeds:

No.	School	Record	RPI
1	Louisiana State	23-5	22
2	Florida State	22-7	3
3	Texas Christian	21-4	5
4	Texas A&M	27-2	4
5	Vanderbilt	22-6	13
6	UCLA	21-5	5
7	Florida	23-6	10
8	Arizona State	18-7	8

The “Next Eight” Regional Hosts:

No.	School	Record	RPI
9	Louisville	21-7	18
10	Miami	19-9	2
11	UCF	22-7	12
12	Nebraska	21-7	17
13	UC Santa Barbara	19-7	32
14	Dallas Baptist	22-3	1
15	Virginia	18-8	39
16	Oklahoma State	19-8	9

Bold indicates a team earning an at large bid as a Host school

The Top 8 National Seed decisions were fairly clear cut with the exception of choosing between Louisville and Florida State from the ACC. Louisville’s RPI hurt them, it stands at 23 currently, but there is plenty of time for that to improve.

The next eight Hosts made for a very difficult exercise. The Power 5 conferences possess all of the RPI advantages once conference play starts so there will be teams from those leagues who will come on like gangbusters in the next two months. For now, it was refreshing to reward teams like Dallas Baptist, Nebraska, and UC Santa Barbara.

The 33 At-Large Bids:
This list will be 24 teams since 9 at-large bids will come from the Hosts above

School	Record	RPI
Bradley	17-6	15
Florida Atlantic	22-6	7
Georgia Tech	17-10	21
Iowa	16-6	11
Missouri State	17-7	14

California	20-7	36
Auburn	17-11	28
Ole Miss	14-14	19
Alabama	14-12	23
Illinois	18-6-1	29

North Carolina	16-11	25
Indiana	16-8	33
Middle Tennessee State	16-10	20
Texas	17-11	55
San Diego State	22-6	26

South Florida	20-8-1	31
Kentucky	18-10	16
Southern California	22-6	35
College of Charleston	17-7	43
Wake Forest	19-11	67

South Carolina	19-9	54
Oregon State	21-7	73
Missouri	19-9	59
Houston	19-9	30

Close but Out:

School	Record	RPI
Ohio State	18-7	24
Connecticut	17-9	27
Cal State Fullerton	14-13	37
West Virginia	15-10	38
Notre Dame	16-10	45
Michigan State	12-12	47
Fresno State	16-13	51
UAB	17-9	57
Louisiana	15-10	58
Cal State Northridge	20-8	60
Clemson	13-13	62
New Mexico	14-11	63
Liberty	17-10	64
Long Beach State	13-10	65
Memphis	17-6	66
Virginia Tech	15-14	68
Oregon	17-11	69
Texas Tech	18-10	71
Duke	19-9	72
Georgia	18-11	85
Tulane	18-10	88
Oklahoma	18-12	96
Arizona	22-6	95
Stanford*	10-14	50

* Teams under .500 are ineligible for at-large bid

Interesting notes from at-large bids:

• There are 10 teams from the SEC which equals last year’s record of 10 teams. It’s hard to imagine that 10 teams actually make it through the SEC gauntlet unscathed, but it is clearly the deepest conference in the nation.

• The list of teams on the “Out” list is strong and you can look for several of these teams to jump into the mix in short order. Many of these teams will naturally improve their RPIs through conference play but they must do that in order to avoid scaring off the Committee.

• Any time your RPI gets into the 50s or higher, it is time to get nervous. For perspective, UCF was left out of last year’s field with an RPI of 48.

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