As part of Perfect Game's recurring PG in the Pros series David Rawnsley will take a look at some of the top prospects in minor league baseball and their impact on the sport prior to their professional careers. This will be done in a six-part series, one feature for each division in Major League Baseball while identifying one of the top prospects for each team. Links are provided below to past installments of the PG in the Pros series for other reports on prospects, both past and present.
2016-17 PG in the Pros Series: NL Central | NL West | AL West | AL Central | AL East
Atlanta Braves
Before They Were Pros, 2013-14 – Lucas Sims, J.R. Graham, Jason Hursh
Before They Were Pros, 2014-15 – Alec Grosser
PG in the Pros, 2015-16 – Dansby Swanson
Kolby Allard, LHP
Kolby Allard was a very successful pitcher at San Clemente (Calif.) High School as a sophomore in 2013, going 5-1, 1.43 in 54 innings. However, the slender lefty was also a finesse pitcher with mid-80s stuff and a high school-level breaking ball according to scouts who recounted Allard's improvement afterwards, and his 35 strikeouts in those 54 innings back that assessment up.
By the same time his junior year, Allard was a different athlete, although he was still lanky and slender. His fastball was in the low-90s and his breaking ball was now in the mid- to upper-70s with real spin and bite. And Allard had the same ability to work the strike zone with life on his fastball while mixing his pitches, which also included a credible changeup. He went 6-2, 1.32 in 63 innings with only 17 walks allowed and, notably, 98 strikeouts.
Still, Allard was little known outside Southern California when he threw at the 2014 Perfect Game National Showcase. Here is the report this scout wrote afterwards:
Slender young build, lots of room to get stronger. Quiet online delivery, low effort and efficient, compact fast arm coming through, three-quarters arm slot, has leverage at release. Fastball explodes out of his hand, sneaky fast and gets on hitters, Steady low-90s, topped out at 93 mph, has big hop up in the zone and can get over barrels. Curveball has hard spin and big depth at times, tended to bury as swing/miss pitch this outing. Very good changeup with hard sink at times, very deceptive potential plus offering. Maintained his stuff and filled up the strike zone. Extremely impressive young southpaw. Good student, verbal commitment to UCLA. Selected for the Perfect Game All-American Classic.
Allard built on that performance for the rest of the summer and even improved on it. He was 94-95 and absolutely dominant in his one inning at the PG All-American Classic and made pitching look easy, being named the event’s Most Valuable Player. Allard was right near the top of most scouts’ prospect lists and considered the top high school pitcher in the class by many.
Allard, however, only threw seven innings his senior season before going down with what was later diagnosed as a stress fracture in his lower back. Back injuries by their nature are problematic to diagnose and are uncommon enough in young pitchers that there was all of a sudden plenty of uncertainty among teams about what to do about Allard, along with plenty of teams who had to make a potential decision on him that weren't going to be in that position if he had remained healthy.
The Braves, right at the start of their rebuilding stage, took the gamble at the 14th pick and signed Allard, a UCLA signee, to a bonus of just over $3 million. Interestingly, they also used their second round pick, 54th overall, on Allard's catcher at San Clemente High School, Lucas Herbert, one of the top catching prospects in the 2015 class.
Miami Marlins
Before They Were Pros, 2013-14 – Andrew Heaney, Jake Marisnick, Anthony DeSclafani
Before They Were Pros, 2014-15 – Trevor Williams, Avery Romero, Justin Nicolino
PG in the Pros, 2015-16 – Tyler Kolek
Braxton Garrett, LHP
Alabama native Braxton Garrett had an ideally long and consistent resume with the pro scouting community when the 2016 draft started last June. He was considered a "safe" pick as a high school pitcher, a rare distinction in the most unpredictable of prospect demographics.
Garrett's father, Steve, also served as his high school baseball coach at Florence (Ala.) High School and gave him a strong mechanical foundation for his delivery and execution of different pitches. Garrett also was a standout two-way athlete, playing outfield when he wasn't pitching and hit .383-2-63 with 24 doubles and 49 stolen bases over his last two high school seasons.
Garrett threw in 11 different Perfect Game tournaments over a three-year period, all with the East Cobb Astros. His progression in raw stuff at those tournaments is extremely consistent, as was his performance. Between his freshman and sophomore years, Garrett pitched in the 83-85 mph range with a low to mid-70s curveball and no changeup. In the summer of 2014, he moved that up to 88-90 with a 76-78 mph breaking ball and introduced an 80 mph changeup. In the summer before his senior year, he was more in the 89-92 mph range with a 78-80 mph breaking ball and an even firmer changeup.
Garrett's breaking ball was always his best pitch during his developmental years and it was one of those pitches that defied labeling as a curveball or slider because of his advanced feel for the pitch. He showed the ability from a young age to manipulate the shape between a bigger 1-to-7 curveball shape to a tighter slider-like sweeping shape at essentially the same velocity. Garrett also showed the ability to subtly cut his fastball.
Going into his senior year, Garrett was a PG All-American and on every scouts’ radar as a pitcher to see early in the season but he was by no means a sure-fire first round draft pick. High school pitchers with average fastballs don't usually evaluate that way, even with a plus breaking ball, potential plus command and a perfect resume. But the projection and steady improvement in the 6-foot-3, 190-pound Garrett's raw stuff continued and he opened the 2016 spring season steadily pitching in the 92-94 mph range and touching higher, with a comparable bump in his breaking ball power. Now it was obvious first round stuff. And, of course, Garrett performed, going 5-2, 0.56 as a senior with 125 strikeouts and only 15 walks in 62 innings.
The Marlins took Garrett, who had a scholarship to Vanderbilt, with the seventh overall pick and signed him to a $4,145,900 bonus at the signing deadline. In recognition of his late signing and his steady workload over his high school career, which also included stints with USA Baseball in addition to travel and high school ball, they held Garrett out of games for the rest of the summer.
New York Mets
Before They Were Pros, 2013-14 – Kevin Plawecki, Brandon Nimmo
Before They Were Pros, 2014-15 – Steven Matz, Dominic Smith
PG in the Pros, 2015-16 – Gavin Cecchini
Thomas Szapucki, LHP
Thomas Szapucki hit the prospect map early in his development, working in the mid-80s between his eighth grade and freshman years and touching 90 mph early in the summer after his freshman year at Dwyer High School in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
The first time this scout saw Szapucki pitch was at the 2012 WWBA World Underclass Championship in Fort Myers when the then sophomore was pitching for the All-American Prospects team. The contest was an 8:00 a.m. game at a high school field and it had rained the night before, leaving everything at the park wet. Szapucki was working in the mid- to upper-80s in the early innings but his fastball had so much life to it that his young catcher was struggling to even catch the strikes. His slider presented much the same problems and it seemed like every other pitch was at the backstop, with the ball soaking wet and needing to be replaced.
By the summer before his senior year, Szapucki was working in the low-90s and his low-80s slider had physics defying sharpness at times. The southpaw's delivery, however, was very unorthodox, with a tight low three-quarters release point and plenty of effort on release, and repeating his mechanics consistently was a challenge. His talents were still plenty evident, as he was selected to participate in the PG All-American Classic later that summer. Here is the report I wrote after the 2014 PG National Showcase:
Tall slender athletic build, lots of room to get stronger. Long loose arm action, low three-quarters low elbow arm slot, energy at release, very fast smooth arm coming through, still developing consistency in release and repeating mechanics. Low-90s fastball, topped out at 93 mph, late sinking and running life. Slider shows big sweeping depth and hard biting action at times, lots of power in his slider, potential plus pitch. Rare changeup is developing. Not a classic delivery or arm action but top shelf raw stuff. Good student, verbal commitment to Florida. Selected for the Perfect Game All-American Classic.
Szapucki had a strong senior season, going 5-2, 0.78 with 89 strikeouts in 53 innings. Scouts were still concerned, however, about his delivery and command potential and whether he would be able to remain a starter as his career progressed. He slipped to the fifth round, where the Mets selected him with the 149th overall pick, and signed him for a $375,000 bonus.
Philadelphia Phillies
Before They Were Pros, 2013-14 – Jesse Biddle
Before They Were Pros, 2014-15 – J.P. Crawford
PG in the Pros, 2015-16 – Zach Eflin
Cornelius Randolph, OF
Cornelius Randolph was a very well known player in Perfect Game circles when he attended the 2014 PG National Showcase, as he'd already played in nearly 20 PG tournaments, most of those with the Home Plate Chilidogs. But he had never been to a PG showcase and there was already talk about how much he'd improved during his junior high school season, where he had hit .486 with 20 extra-base hits in 24 games.
It was quickly obvious at the National that Randolph was an elite level prospect. His extra strong 6-foot-1, 190-pound build stood out but he still showed his athleticism defensively and on the bases. Most impressive was his lefthanded bat. Randolph was unusually polished and versatile for a 17-year old hitter and showed diverse abilities; he handled tough lefthanded breaking balls with a simple and patient approach, his short inside swing produced hard middle-of-the-field contact that promised a high contact rate and when he wanted to turn on a ball and pull and lift it, the raw power was big and loud.
Here is this scout's report from that event:
Big strong athletic build, especially in the lower half, not a shortstop body but shortstop athleticism. 6.94 runner, lots of lateral agility defensively, has defensive instincts and looked good at second base as well, arm strength has really improved over the last year, good carry. Lefthanded hitter, short aggressive swing with very good bat speed, loud game contact, ball really jumps hard, more a line drive swing but shows power and lift on his pitch, looks to pull, had quality swings against good breaking balls from lefties, advanced barrel skills, outstanding overall hitting tools. High ceiling athlete with rapidly improving skills and tools. Good student, verbal commitment to Clemson. Selected for the Perfect Game All-American Classic.
Randolph was very consistent offensively the rest of the summer and went on to hit .533-7-33 with 22 walks in 26 games his senior year, firmly establishing himself among scouts as one of the top high school hitters in the 2015 class. He passed on a scholarship to Clemson to sign for a $3,231,300 bonus with the Phillies as the 10th overall pick.
Randolph was obviously a bat-first player and that was his value in being picked where he was. There was plenty of secondary talk about his future position before the draft, as Randolph played shortstop in high school and had played third and second base on the summer circuit. I personally was very pleased by how natural his actions at second base looked and thought an extended look at the position was warranted because of his offensive potential there. So it was a bit surprising when the Phillies immediately moved him to left field in rookie ball.
Washington Nationals
Before They Were Pros, 2013-14 – Lucas Giolito, A.J. Cole, Brian Goodwin
Before They Were Pros, 2014-15 – Michael Taylor, Jake Johansen
PG in the Pros, 2015-16 – Trea Turner
Andrew Stevenson, OF
Andrew Stevenson came a long way from early in his high school career to becoming a second round draft pick out of Louisiana State. One often reads in Perfect Game reports something to the effect of "Will improve proportionately to how much stronger he can get…" That would be a perfect summary of why Stevenson has kept improving since the first time he was at a PG event as a 16 year old.
At that event, the 2010 National Underclass Main Event, Stevenson received a PG grade of 8 and that was based mostly 6.6 speed in the 60-yard dash and his overall athleticism and physical projection. His hitting grades were not close to that level due to his lack of bat speed.
The next time we saw Stevenson was at the 2011 South Top Prospect Showcase. Stevenson had hit .471 as a high school junior and the improvement in his bat speed was very noticeable. His running speed and defensive grades/notes were virtually the same as they had been at the previous event but the hitting grade improved significantly and Stevenson's overall PG Grade went up to a 9. Stevenson went on to hit .540 as a senior at St. Thomas More High School in Louisiana, although he wasn't drafted out of high school.
Stevenson's progression at LSU was much the same. His freshman year he hit .193 and had one extra-base hit, ironically a home run, in 119 at-bats. He improved to .335 with 12 extra-base hits in full-time duty as a sophomore, then .348 with 19 extra-base hits, with 26 steals added on, as a junior. Stevenson's defensive reputation grew during the same time and he was considered one of the best defensive outfielders in the 2015 draft.
The Nationals didn't have a first round pick in 2015 but selected Stevenson with the 58th overall pick, signing him to a well under slot $750,000 bonus. Even they have probably been very pleased with Stevenson's offensive progression as a professional, as he hit .308 in his debut half-season and had 36 extra-base hits along with 39 steals while hitting .276 in 2016.