As part of Perfect Game's recurring PG in the Pros series David Rawnsley will take a look at some of the top prospects in minor league baseball and their impact on the sport prior to their professional careers. This will be done in a six-part series, one feature for each division in Major League Baseball while identifying one of the top prospects for each team. Links are provided below to past installments of the PG in the Pros series for other reports on prospects, both past and present.
2016-17 PG in the Pros Series: NL East | NL Central | NL West | AL West | AL East
Chicago White Sox
Before They Were Pros, 2013-14 – Erik Johnson, Courtney Hawkins, Tyler Danish
Before They Were Pros, 2014-15 – Chris Beck, Micah Johnson, Jacob May
PG in the Pros, 2015-16 – Tim Anderson
Carson Fulmer, RHP
Carson Fulmer was probably one of the most uncomfortable at-bats as a high school pitcher – especially for a righthanded hitter – that this scout has seen in the last decade. His raw stuff was nasty across the board, including a fastball that would touch 95 mph, a very sharp-breaking curveball that managed to take what looked like right angle turns in the upper 70s plus a very credible changeup for a high school pitcher with no need of it.
But one of the reasons why Fulmer was such an uncomfortable at-bat was also a contributing reason as to why scouts weren't especially excited about buying him out of a Vanderbilt scholarship despite the present stuff. Fulmer's delivery was both deceptive and violent and offered the hitter lots to look at, except the baseball, of course. The main feature of Fulmer's delivery was some of the most notable head violence, often called a head whack, that one will ever see on a pitcher. Although Fulmer had no trouble throwing strikes in high school it's a factor that scouts really bore down on.
My notes from the 2011 PG National Showcase, one of about a dozen PG events that Fulmer attended, including the 2011 PG All-American Classic, summarized him as follows:
Full effort delivery, plus triple head jerk, fast arm, hard CB spin, repeats well considering and throws to spots, steady 94 mph, solid lower-half build, nice change with arm speed, serious snap to CB on occasion, can pitch and has an idea, looks like plus-plus uncomfortable AB.
Hitters agreed with the last comment, as Fulmer went 9-0, 0.27 as a senior at All-Saints Academy in Winter Haven, Fla., striking out 161 hitters in 77 innings and allowing only 27 walks. He was picked in the 15th round in the 2012 draft by the Red Sox as a "just in case" draft.
Fulmer worked out of the bullpen for his first year and half at Vanderbilt, going 3-0, 2.39 with four saves in 52 innings as a freshman. He transitioned to a starting role midway through his sophomore season in 2014 after already earning 10 saves and went 7-1, 1.98 with only 61 hits allowed in 91 innings. As a full-time starter as a junior Fulmer was absolutely dominant, going 14-2, 1.83 in 19 starts, with 167 strikeouts and only 81 hits allowed in 127 innings. As a result he was named Perfect Game’s College Pitcher of the Year that season.
That Fulmer had some of the best stuff in the 2015 draft class was unquestioned. He did average almost four walks per nine innings in college, although the Vanderbilt coaching staff did a very good job of calming down his delivery as much as possible, so there were questions about his ability to remain a starter in the long term.
The White Sox have never shied away from controversial deliveries (see Chris Sale) and were strongly focused on college pitching for the 2015 draft. Most mock drafts had Fulmer going to Chicago with the eighth overall pick, and he did, signing for a $3,470,600 bonus.
Cleveland Indians
Before They Were Pros, 2013-14 – Francisco Lindor
Before They Were Pros, 2014-15 – Clint Frazier, Tyler Naquin, Mitch Brown
PG in the Pros, 2015-16 – Bobby Bradley
Triston McKenzie, RHP
Triston McKenzie went through three years of Perfect Game events with almost a symmetrical improvement in his raw stuff, which is exactly what you would ideally like to see in a young pitcher, especially one that you want to use the word ‘projectable’ in conjunction with when evaluating.
McKenzie pitched at a pair of PG tournaments after his freshman year and worked in the mid- to upper-70s, touching 80 mph, with a soft mid-60s curveball. He threw at four tournaments the next summer, three with the Easton Rockets, and worked steadily in the low to-mid-80s with a much harder and improved breaking ball.
McKenzie continue to improve his junior year at Royal Palm Beach (Fla.) High School during his junior year and was invited to the PG National Showcase in June, 2014. Here is his report from that event:
Extremely slender narrow featured build, very long arms and legs, loose and coordinated in all his actions. Well-paced delivery, quick loose arm action, three-quarters arm slot, repeated delivery well and maintained stuff from the stretch. Fastball topped out at 92 mph, no telling how hard he will throw when stronger, has gained 7-8 mph in the last year, gets good tailing life on his fastball. Good power and spin to curveball, 11-to-5 shape with hard biting action. Plus life on a quality changeup. Three very good pitches and has an idea how to use them. Almost a unique prospect because of his body type combined with improvement over the last year and present/projectable stuff. High ceiling talent. Good student, verbal commitment to Vanderbilt. Selected for the Perfect Game All-American Classic.
That report mentioned McKenzie's almost unique build; he was listed at 6-foot-5, 160-pounds and it that definitely passed the eye test for accuracy. Rarely will one see that slender an athlete that at the same time possesses so much obvious coordination and wiry strength.
One thing that McKenzie did very well all summer on the showcase/tournament showcase and during the spring in high school baseball was perform, even when he didn't have his best stuff. This scout saw him work in the upper-80s at the 2014 East Coast Pro Showcase in unseasonably chilly weather in Syracuse, N.Y., in early August but the results were the same as when he was low-90s; lots of strikes and movement with three quality pitches and three shutout innings as a result.
The question with young pitchers who have a steady track record of improvement is whether they have another step forward in their bodies. The Indians bet that McKenzie did, picking him with the 42nd overall pick in the 2015 draft and signing him away from Vanderbilt for a $2.3 million bonus.
Detroit Tigers
Before They Were Pros, 2013-14 – Nick Castellanos, Jake Thompson, James McCann
Before They Were Pros, 2014-15 – Buck Farmer, Kevin Ziomek, Joe Jimenez
PG in the Pros, 2015-16 – Derek Hill
Beau Burrows, RHP
Like fellow 2015 Perfect Game All-American Triston McKenzie (as detailed above) Beau Burrows took a pretty steady progression up the velocity ladder during his high school career. Only the numbers were significantly bigger from the beginning and Burrows had pretty much exhausted his physical projection by the time he was eligible for the draft.
A native of Weatherford, Texas, Burrows was already topping out in the low-80s coming out of the eighth grade when he pitched for the North Texas Dirtbags in the 2011 14u BCS Finals. He moved up to the upper-80s between his freshman and sophomore years and topped out at an eye-opening 96 mph at the 2013 16u WWBA National Championship while pitching for the D-Bat Mustangs.
One doesn't need to lean on physical projection when a pitcher is already in the mid-90s when he's 16 years old, an evaluator just hopes for steady improvement in secondary pitches and command. And that's pretty much exactly what happened with Burrows over the next two years, he gradually kept improving his ability to work down in the strike zone from his uncommonly high release point and his breaking ball and changeup improved significantly as well.
Here is Burrows report from the 2014 PG National Showcase:
Solid strong athletic build. Rock back and fire delivery, big leg raise and hip turn, over the top release point with minimal upper body lean, very good angle to the plate at times. Mid-90s fastball, topped out at 96 mph and hit it often, lost a click or two from the stretch, mostly straight but with plus/plus power. Hard downer curveball shows plus potential, hard spin and bite, not consistent on curveball release yet. Changeup was firm but had good fade and was thrown with confidence, solid third offering to be developed. Has improved build and pitchability over the last year, elite level raw stuff. Good student, verbal commitment to Texas A&M. Selected for the Perfect Game All-American Classic.
An important thing to note about Burrows delivery was how much energy and torque he developed from his lower half in core in his move to the plate. It's not coincidental that his improvement in command and feel came at the same time as he became noticeably stronger in these areas of his body.
With his early maturing stuff, it's no surprise that Burrows was a dominant four-year starter at Weatherford High School, going 31-7, 1.13 in his high school career. In his senior season he only walked 17 hitters in 71 innings while striking out 132.
Perfect Game had Burrows ranked as the 16th player in the 2015 class rankings going into the draft. He went 22nd overall to the Tigers, who signed him away from a Texas A&M ride for a $2,154,200 bonus.
Kansas City Royals
Before They Were Pros, 2013-14 – Sean Manea, Bubba Starling
Before They Were Pros, 2014-15 – Hunter Dozier, Kyle Zimmer
PG in the Pros, 2015-16 – Chase Vallot
Jake Junis, RHP
Junis grew up the small northwest Illinois town of Rock Falls, which during the early 2000’s produced an unusual number of future Division I pitchers and dominant basketball teams considering it had a population of less than 10,000. Junis was a top basketball and baseball star of his class, averaging nearly 20 points a game while playing both third base and pitching.
In fact, Junis came to the 2010 PG National Showcase as a primary third baseman and secondary pitcher. He had been to over a dozen PG events, starting with the 2007 WWBA Kernels Foundation Championship as a freshman, but had only pitched at about half of them.
Looking back at the notes from that National Showcase, it is quickly obvious that the entire PG scouting staff thought that the strong and athletic Junis, who was already listed at 6-foot-3, 220-pounds, was a pitcher moving forward. He had a very easy, athletic delivery with a low effort release on his pitches and projected plus command in the future. Junis also threw three very solid pitches in an 88-90 mph fastball, a big sweeping mid-70s curveball and a surprisingly good changeup in the upper-80s. He had a commitment to North Carolina State at that point and it was pretty obvious that he was going to be a contributor right from the start of his college career. Perfect Game ranked him 292nd in their 2011 class rankings.
The Royals drafted Junis in the 29th round that June and followed him throughout the summer. They decided to make a run at him shortly before Junis left for college and were able to sign him for a $675,000 bonus in mid-August.
Minnesota Twins
Before They Were Pros, 2013-14 – Byron Buxton, Alex Meyer, Jose Berrios
Before They Were Pros, 2014-15 – Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves
PG in the Pros, 2015-16 – Kax Kepler
Nick Gordon, SS
Gordon was always one of the highest ranked and most recognizable prospects in the 2014 class from the moment he entered high school. Unlike his brother, Dee, who was focused on playing basketball in high school, Nick Gordon was a baseball yard rat who played every opportunity he got and was playing in PG tournaments before he entered high school.
The major question for scouts in Gordon's development was how strong he would be able to get and if he'd ever be more than a contact, up-the-middle type of hitter. The secondary question was if he might not actually be a better prospect on the mound than at shortstop.
The first question was answered, or at least pointed in a positive direction, when Gordon gained 10-15 pounds to fill out his narrow 6-foot-2 build during his junior year and started hitting the ball with authority on the 2013 summer circuit. A lefthanded hitter, Gordon preferred to work middle away in his natural swing path, but he was now both driving the ball up the left-center field gap and occasionally even turning on balls with authority. During his senior year, Gordon hit .512-6-28 with 18 extra-base hits in 28 games while also only striking out three times.
Gordon himself answered the second question. He had pitched frequently throughout his career and took the mound at 14 different PG events alone. In 2013, Gordon was regularly working in the 91-94 mph range with one of the best knee-buckling curveballs in the class, which wasn't surprising given that his father, Tom "Flash" Gordon, had a similar breaking ball. But Gordon only threw one inning his senior year and made it clear that he was going to go out as a shortstop.
The overwhelming reason, of course, that Gordon was rated the No. 3 prospect in the 2014 class by Perfect Game, though, wasn't because of his hitting improvement or his pitching potential. It was because of his extraordinary defensive talent at shortstop. The physical tools were obvious. What was most impressive about the teenage Nick Gordon was how instinctive and creative his defensive skills were and how he made very hard defensive plays look so easy.
One play Gordon made at the 2013 PG National Showcase has always stood out for this scout. Gordon was playing second base with a runner on first base. The batter hit a low bouncing ground ball up the middle and out of nowhere a sliding Gordon catches the ball with his glove hand while reaching back and tagging second base with his right hand for the force out. He then popped up smoothly and easily completed the double play. The range, creative ability and athleticism needed to pull off that play, at a position he wasn't used to playing, spoke everything one wanted to know about his defensive skills.
The Twins used the fifth overall pick in the 2014 draft on Gordon and signed him almost immediately to a $3,851,000 bonus.