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College  | Rankings  | 5/1/2024

DII/DIII/NAIA Rankings Update: May 1

Nick Herfordt     
Photo: Blaze O'Saben (GEORGIA GWINNETT ATHLETICS)
The debate between pitching or hitting has been a long standing dispute as to which is more important in winning baseball games. There are numerous narrative examples which are cited by proponents of each side; however they rarely, if ever, convince anyone who’s already settled on one side of the fence. 

Baseball historian and mathematician Bill James developed a statistical calculation in an attempt to help settle the argument and dubbed it the Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball. His numbers concluded that baseball outcomes are primarily influenced by the batters whose production is 45% of the determination of the final score. The percentage of pitchers was only 36%. He also calculated that defense (which is often cited as being the best offense) factors 16% into a team’s winning percentage. The smallest statistical piece of the pie was base running. James’ concluded that prowess on the base paths only factored in 3% to baseball outcomes. 



While attributing a number for base running ability is difficult, the stolen base is the defacto measure. It's not a difficult leap to believe that a team that steals a lot of bases is also fast and makes smart decisions on the base paths.  

James’ calculations were based on MLB statistics, which although primarily has by the same rules as college baseball, is played differently. Judging from the success of some of the top teams in DII, NAIA and DIII baseball, speed is a much greater factor in determining success. 

Along with the latest rankings is a look at some of the top teams in stealing bases. While each of these clubs have plenty of other weapons which help them win games, aggressiveness on the base paths is unquestionably a significant component of their success.

NCAA DII 
Rk School State Record Lst Week Prev Rk
1 Tampa Spartans FL 39-5 2-1 1
2 Central Missouri Mules MO 43-6 3-1 2
3 North Greenville Crusaders SC 40-10 4-0 3
4 Point Loma Sea Lions CA 36-9-1 3-1 4
5 UNC Pembroke Braves NC 38-12 4-0 5
6 St. Leo Lions FL 37-6 3-0 8
7 Young Harris Mountain Lions GA 38-11 2-2 6
8 Millersville Marauders PA 37-9 4-0 12
9 Missouri Southern St. Lions MO 37-13 1-2 9
10 Colorado Mesa Mavericks CO 32-14 3-1 13
11 Augustana Vikings SD 35-8 2-2 7
12 Angelo State Rams TX 34-16 2-2 10
13 Mount Olive Trojans NC 34-14 2-2 11
14 Lander Bearcats SC 37-12 2-1 16
15 Lubbock Christian Chaparrals TX 36-14 4-0 18
16 Catawba Indians NC 37-12 3-0 19
17 Seton Hill Griffins PA 33-12 5-0 20
18 East Stroudsburg Warriors PA 35-9 1-3 14
19 Lee Flames TN 36-14 2-2 17
20 West Chester Golden Rams PA 35-7 3-1 NR
21 West Texas A&M Buffs TX 35-15 2-2 22
22 Ashland Eagles OH 36-9 2-3 15
23 Saginaw Valley State Cardinals MI 32-13 4-1 25
24 Georgia Southwestern Hurricanes GA 33-16 1-2 21
25 Central Oklahoma Bronchos OK 36-12 2-1 NR
DROP Westmont Warriors CA 34-14   23
DROP Barton Bulldogs NC     24


Although stolen bases didn’t factor into Central Missouri’s series win over Missouri Southern last weekend when the two top ten teams met to close the regular season, the steal has been a substantial part of the Mules’ success this year. The Mules have 159 stolen bases in 49 games, which is fifth best in DII. They are averaging just under 3 ¼ stolen bases per game, and in games when they've surpassed that mark, their overall record is 22-1. The only loss was when they stole four bases but were edged 10-9 by Washburn in mid April.

Five times this season Central Missouri stole at least seven bases in a game, including a season high nine against Pittsburg State. In that matchup, a 13-4 victory over the Gorillas, senior outfielder Brennen van Breusegen stole four bases all by himself. Despite his personal crime spree on the base paths that day, van Breusegen is only fifth on the team in steals this spring. The leader is Max Holy who has successfully stolen 28 games in 29 attempts. Of the nine everyday players in their lineup, seven have double-digit totals for stolen bases. Of the other two, one is eight for eight in attempts, and the other is only a semi-regular with 29 starts.

An aggressive outlook on the base paths is nothing new in Warrensburg. The Mules regularly eclipse the century mark in team steals. Their current 159 total matches last year’s final, and the last time they didn’t surpass at least 90 in a full season was a decade ago in 2015 when they finished with 85.

What’s even more remarkable about UCM’s stealing supremacy is that their total would be high if they didn’t hit for so many extra base hits. The Mules have a combined total of 138 home runs and triples which needless to say, makes it difficult to steal a base if you’ve already scored or are already on third base.

The use of the stolen base to translate to success is not limited to Central Missouri. Seven other teams in the DII Perfect Game DII Top 25 are currently in the top twenty overall in stolen bases. St. Leo and Millersville, with 157 and 147 stolen bases respectively are in the top ten, with Angelo State, Catawba, Lander, Seton Hill and UNC Pembroke also all have at least 111 stolen bases so far. 

NAIA
Rk School State Record Lst Week Prev Rk
1 Southeastern Fire FL 44-6 3-1 1
2 Georgia Gwinnett Grizzlies GA 42-6 3-0 2
3 Cumberlands Patriots KY 44-6 4-1 3
4 Webber International Warriors FL 40-10 1-1 4
5 Missouri Baptist Spartans MO 36-9-1 3-0-1 5
6 Central Methodist Eagles MO 42-7 4-0 6
7 LSU Shreveport Pilots LA 39-7 4-0 7
8 Kansas Wesleyan Coyotes KS 41-8 3-0 8
9 Lewis-Clark State Warriors ID 35-9 4-0 9
10 Tennessee Wesleyan Bulldogs TN 33-15 3-0 13
11 William Carey Crusaders MS 30-14 3-0 15
12 William Jessup Warriors CA 36-9 0-0 12
13 Hope International Royals CA 35-12 0-1 10
14 Mid-America Christian Evangels OK 36-10 4-0 17
15 Faulkner Eagles AL 33-14 1-2 11
16 Bellevue Bruins NE 36-12 2-1 14
17 Reinhardt Eagles GA 35-14 4-0 19
18 Loyola Wolf Pack LA 35-15 0-3 16
19 Taylor Trojans IN 37-13 4-0 22
20 Oklahoma City Stars OK 32-15 3-1 20
21 Doane Tigers NE 35-11 2-2 18
22 Concordia Bulldogs NE 37-12 4-0 21
23 Ottawa (OUAZ) Spirit AZ 32-15 1-0 25
24 Benedictine Mesa Redhawks AZ 31-13 0-1 23
25 Tabor Bluejays KS 34-12 2-1 24


While base stealing isn’t quite the rage among the top teams in the NAIA, there are a number of teams of which it is a primary weapon in their offensive arsenal. Like Central Missouri in DII, an aggressive approach on the basepaths has long been a tactic embraced by Georgia Gwinnett to make them one of their division’s top teams. Over the three prior seasons GGC averaged 225 stolen bases per season. That average will increase this year as the Grizzlies are easily outpacing NAIA competition with an astonishing 269 stolen bases in only 48 games. That’s a preposterous rate of over 5.6 stolen bases per contest. GGC has seven players who have stolen no fewer than twenty bases as they’ve compiled yet another lopsided winning season with a 42-6 record so far and have spent the entire spring as the second ranked team. 

The Grizzlies top thief is their leading hitter Blaze O’Saben. In addition to topping the team with a .429 batting average and 10 triples, he also has stolen 46 bases while only being caught once. Interestingly the senior has only a total of 33 swipes his first two seasons at GGC in 109 games. Other primary contributors to their total include Ajay Sczepkowski who has stolen no fewer than 35 bases the past two seasons and Joe Quelch who has upped his total from 19 last season to a current mark of 41. 

The Grizzlies are also able to up the stolen base total thanks to the NAIA’s unique courtesy runner rule. Teams have the option to use a runner for the pitcher, designated hitter or catcher at any time. Peyton Peoples has appeared in 42 games this season, almost exclusively in that role. In doing so he has stolen 34 bases in 40 attempts as well as scored 62 times. Although perhaps he should bat more - he has three hits in five at bats this spring.

Other teams currently in the Perfect Game NAIA Top 25 who are among the top twenty-five in stolen bases include Loyola (173 SBs), LSU-Shreveport (121) and top ranked Southeastern (114).

NCAA DIII 
Rk School State Record Lst Week Prev Rk
1 Endicott Gulls MA 33-2 5-0 1
2 East Texas Baptist Tigers TX 34-6 3-0 3
3 Johns Hopkins Blue Jays MD 29-9 4-1 4
4 Salisbury Seagulls MD 28-7 2-1 2
5 Denison Big Red OH 31-5 3-1 5
6 Baldwin Wallace Yellow Jackets OH 31-6 3-1 6
7 UW-Whitewater Warhawks WI 30-6 3-1 8
8 Salve Regina Seahawks RI 29-5 5-0 9
9 Rowan Profs NJ 24-11 4-1 10
10 Trinity Tigers TX 30-10 3-1 13
11 Case Western Reserve Spartans OH 30-9 3-1 14
12 Cortland State Red Dragons NY 24-10-1 3-1 15
13 Christopher Newport Captains VA 23-8 2-1 11
14 La Verne Leopards CA 25-9-1 4-0 16
15 Lynchburg Hornets VA 25-14 3-1 18
16 Misericordia Cougars PA 29-9 3-1 20
17 Eastern Connecticut Warriors CT 23-11 1-3 7
18 Penn State Harrisburg Lions PA 31-7 5-0 NR
19 UW LaCrosse Eagles WI 24-11 3-2 12
20 Aurora Spartans IL 27-9 4-1 21
21 Pomona-Pitzer Sagehens CA 26-11 1-2 17
22 Shenandoah Hornets VA 25-13 3-1 24
23 Transylvania Pioneers KY 30-6 4-0 NR
24 Randolph-Macon Yellow Jackets VA 25-11 2-2 23
25 Montclair State Red Hawks NJ 26-13 0-4 19
DROP Benedictine Eagles IL 25-9 1-3 22
DROP Cal Lutheran Kingsmen CA     25

As prevalent as the stolen is used effectively to win games at the DII and NAIA level, the results don’t translate over to DIII.  The only teams in the Perfect Game DIII Top 25 which are in the top thirty-five in stolen bases are East Texas Baptist and Denison. The Tigers’ total of 108 in 40 games positions them just inside the top twenty. The Big Red’s 93 stolen bases in 36 games has them tied for 35th. It's  perhaps interesting to note both of these two teams are in the top five of the DIII rankings. 

For ETBU, five of the six everyday players who have at least 100 at bats have double-digit stolen bases. The only one who doesn’t could make it there by season’s end as he’s seven for eight in attempts. The Tigers are led by Jacob Evangelista who has 28 this season and stole 32 in 2023. Denison’s top threat is junior outfielder Eric Colaco who has 29 in 32 attempts.

Unlike Central Missouri and Georgia Gwinnett, ETBU and Denison are fairly new to utilizing stolen bases to win games. The addition of an aggressive attack seems to be paying off for each of them. Over the past three years each of them have stolen an increasing number of bases. During that time frame each of them have also won an increasing number of games. Denison went from 47 stolen bases with a 27-13 record in 2021 to a 36-10 record with a total of 124 swipes last year. ETBU stole 73 bases in 2021 and won 29 games. Their win total improved to 42 last year as they reached the century mark with 101 total steals. 
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