General
Manager: Doug Melvin
Minor
League Director: Reid Nichols
Scouting
Director: Bruce Seid
AAA:
Nashville Sounds (Pacific Coast League) 71-73
AA:
Huntsville Stars (Southern League) 64-73
Hi
A: Brevard County Manatees (Florida State League) 62-76
Low
A: Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Midwest League) 67-72
Rookie
Adv.: Helena Brewers (Pioneer League) 30-46
Rookie:
AZL Brewers (Arizona Summer League) 17-39
Dominican:
DSL Brewers (Dominican Summer League) 44-27
System
Overview
The
Brewers were applauded for going all-in on the 2011 season, trading
away many of their top prospects to acquire starting pitchers Zach
Greinke and Shawn Marcum from the Royals and Blue Jays, in order to
take advantage of 1B Prince Fielder’s anticipated final season with
the club. The risk paid off in the short term as Greinke and Marcum
went a combined 29-13, Fielder had a near MVP season
(.299-38-120/.981) before heading off to Detroit as a free agent and
the Brewers went 96-66 and lost in the NLCS to the eventual World
Champion Cardinals.
Coming
off of 77 and 80 win seasons in 2010 and 2009, respectively, the
question becomes what will the Brewers be able to do in 2012. The
answer, on paper, seems to be to expect something pretty much along
the same lines even without Fielder.
The
Brewers replaced Fielder’s bat in the middle of the line up with 3B
Aramis Ramirez, who won’t approach Fielder’s production,
intimidation or charisma factor, but he will be a tremendous upgrade
on 2011 third baseman Casey McGehee. If Fielder’s replacement at
first base, Mat Gamel, can put up respectable numbers in the
.280-20-85 range, Milwaukee’s offense shouldn’t suffer too much
as a whole.
The
real key to the Brewers 2011 season wasn’t Fielder or MVP Ryan
Braun, though. It was the incredible consistency and durability of
the Brewers starting rotation of Greinke, Marcum, RHP Yovani
Gallardo, LHP Randy Wolf and LHP Chris Narveson. None had a career
year but they combined to start 155 of the Brewers 162 games and
posted a combined 70-41 record. In fact, only six pitchers started
games for Milwaukee all season, with RHP Marco Estrada starting the
other seven contests.
Throw
in the eighth and ninth inning duo of set-up man Francisco Rodriguez
and closer John Axford and the Brewers had the most stable pitching
staff in baseball. All those pitchers return for the 2012 season.
For
the long term, though, the Brewers look like they will be walking a
tight rope. The Greinke and Marcum trades took a lot of talent,
notably RHP Jake Odorizzi and 3B Brett Lawrie, from a system that was
already lacking in depth. Milwaukee has had a few sub-par drafts in
recent years, especially the 2009 effort, and despite an increased
presence in Latin America, the club has made few inroads in the past
few years to procure such talent.
And
while it isn’t an accurate indicator of talent, all seven of the
Brewers eight affiliates finished with losing records in 2011.
Despite the fact that the system needs improvement, it is important to note that the Brewers have succeeded in recent years largely thanks to a rededication to scouting and player development that began in 2000 when Jack Zruriencik, now the GM of the Mariners, took over as the team's scouting boss. Current Brewers GM Doug Melvin, who has held his post since late in 2002, has continued to support those internal player procurement efforts, while owner Mark Attanasio, who purchased the organization from the Selig family in 2004, has supported a dramatic increase in payroll which is projected to exceed $100 million in 2012. Mainstays such as Braun, Gallardo, Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart are homegrown products, as was Fielder.
2011
Draft
The
Brewers were unable to sign their first round pick in 2010,
California high school right hander Dylan Covey, when Covey was
diagnosed with diabetes after the draft and decided to attend San
Diego while learning to deal with his disease. As compensation,
Milwaukee received the 15th overall pick in the much
deeper 2012 draft.
Along
with their own pick at No. 12, that gave the Brewers a chance to make
a strong impact on their system and restock some of the talent they
had traded away. The did it in the most obvious and time tested way
possible, drafting two very talented college pitchers from major
schools with established track records in Texas RHP Taylor Jungmann
and Georgia Tech LHP Jed Bradley. Both should move quickly through
the system and immediately rejuvenate the Brewers talent base.
After
the first round their focus remained on pitching, as Milwaukee
selected the top Puerto Rican pitcher, RHP Jorge Lopez, projectable
Southern California prep RHP Danny Keller and another polished
college talent in Long Beach State RHP Drew Gagnon, in the second,
sixth and third rounds, respectively. Another college pitcher,
Mississippi RHP David Goforth (seventh round), could move quickly
through the system with his mid-to-upper 90s fastball if he adjusts
to working out of the bullpen quickly.
The
Brewers top position pick, 1B Nick Ramirez from Cal State Fullerton
(fourth round) had a strong debut in pro ball, signing immediately
and hitting .301-11-53/.801 OPS between Helena and Wisconsin,
although he will need to learn to improve his plate discipline.
Other
potential promising bats include toolsy prep OF Michael Reed, who the
Brewers signed away from Ole Miss as a fifth round pick, and Canadian
prep C/3B Dustin Houle.
The
pick that the Brewers scouting staff might be shaking their heads
about for years to come was 16th rounder LHP Carlos Rodon.
Rodon had a strong commitment to North Carolina State but the
Brewers reportedly made a very strong run at him before the signing
deadline. Rodon has since emerged as a potential top pick in the
2014 draft, with a fastball that is regularly hitting the 94-97 mph
range as a freshman.
The
Brewers, who usually stick pretty close to slot numbers in the draft
and shouldn’t be impacted too much by the new draft rules, also
aggressively signed Texas high school IF Chris McFarland away from a
Rice scholarship in the 18th round with a $315,000 bonus.
Similar
to 2011, the Brewers will be able to continue to infuse talent into
their system through the draft thanks to additional, early picks.
The consolation prize for losing Fielder to the Tigers will garner
the Brewers a late first round and early supplemental first round
pick.
Top
10 Prospects
1.
RHP Wily Peralta –
Baseball-reference player profile
Peralta
is a big and physical right hander in the Carlos Zambrano mold,
capable of holding a heavy low-to-mid 90s fastball over the course of
a game and mixing in a solid slider and changeup. He still walks too
many hitters, but keeps the ball in the park exceptionally well and
has posted very good strikeout numbers.
Peralta
missed the 2007 season with Tommy John surgery but hasn’t missed a
start in the last two years and moved quickly in short steps through
the system. He’ll start the season at 22-years old and with 34
very successful innings (2-0, 2.03, 40 Ks) of Triple A experience
already under his belt. The Brewers starting rotation is set for the
beginning of the year, baring Spring Training injuries, but Peralta
should be at the head of the line for an opportunity should one arise
during the season.
2.
RHP Taylor Jungmann –
Baseball-reference player profile
Only
some late season tiredness after throwing 140 innings likely caused
Jungmann to slip to the 12th spot and the Brewers last
June. It has always seemed, though, as if scouts have been laying in
wait for some sign of weakness from the former PG/Aflac All-American
due to his delivery, which is somewhat upright and cross body. They
can’t argue that he’s an injury risk, as he has never been hurt.
He threw 355 innings at UT while going 32-9 over three years. They
can’t say his delivery affects his ability to throw strikes, as his
pinpoint command (36 walks in 141 IP in 2011) is one of his strengths
on the mound. And they can’t say there is any concern about
Jungmann’s stuff, as he pitches in the 92-94 mph range with very
good life and a big breaking low 80s slider.
Another
very encouraging thing for Jungmann’s future is the adjustments
that he made last year after the introduction of the new bats in
college baseball. He began pitching to contact more aggressively
instead of going after strikeouts, an adjustment that often takes
pitchers years in the minors to fully make.
3.
LHP Jed Bradley –
Baseball-reference player profile
Like
Jungman, Bradley spent part of last spring amidst speculation that he
could go among the top 10 picks in the draft and maybe even break
into the top five. But a series of mediocre performances in the
second half of the Georgia Tech season, keyed by his slider that went
from being a plus present pitch to a below average pitch, slid him to
the Brewers pick at No. 15. If Bradley quickly regains his slider
and overall early season form, he could move just as fast through the
Brewers system.
Bradley
is a classic example of why scouts use the word projection so much.
He was a skinny left hander at an Alabama high school topping out at
87 mph when he committed to Georgia Tech and went undrafted in 2008.
Now he’s a 6-4/225 man topping out in the mid 90s.
4.
2B Scooter Gennett –
Baseball-reference player profile
Gennett
has received plenty of attention since the end of the 2011 season
after hitting .411-2-14 in 90 at bats in the Arizona Fall League, but
the fact is that Gennett (his given first name is Ryan) has flat-out
been able to hit since early in his teen years, and his AFL
performance is just a continuation of what he has always done. He
also hit .300-9-51 in the notoriously difficult to hit in Florida
State League in 2011, which is an even bigger accomplishment.
The
rest of Gennett’s tool package is very good as well. He ran a 6.57
and threw 91 mph from the infield in high school while being named a
PG/Aflac All-American. Maybe his most memorable experience at
Perfect Game events, though, might have been at the 2008 National
Showcase at the Metrodome in Minnesota where he nearly beat big
Jonathan Singleton (now the Astros top prospect) in the home run
hitting contest. The 5-10/160 Gennett probably hit more balls out
than Singleton, but they kept curving just foul. Distance wasn’t a
problem.
Rickie
Weeks is signed through 2014 (with a club option for 2015) but expect
Gennett to be knocking hard on the door before then.
5.
RHP Tyler Thornburg –
Baseball-reference player profile
Thornburg
is a slender, sub 6-foot right hander, probably scout’s least
favorite demographic on the whole field, but he has nasty mid 90s
stuff now and dominated in minor league ball last year (10-6, 2.57,
160 Ks and only 96 hits in 136 innings). That success is a
continuation of his domination at Charleston Southern in college, and
did the same pitching for the East Cobb Shamrocks in WWBA events.
Thornburg’s best secondary pitch is a very deceptive changeup and
he also throws a big breaking curveball. His delivery adds to his
deception, as it is both unconventional and high energy, but
Thornburg works through it consistently and has never had a serious
arm injury.
There
is always speculation that 5-11 power right handers will end up in
the bullpen, but Thornburg has been a starter his entire life and has
the endurance and selection of pitches to stay in the role,
especially if he gets more consistent with his command of the strike
zone.
6.
OF Logan Schafer –
Baseball-reference player profile
At
25-years old, Schafer is a bit old for a prospect who started 2011 in
AA and may begin 2012 in AAA, but he missed almost the entire 2010
season and the beginning of the 2011 season with an incredible string
of ill-timed injuries. In between he led the Florida State League in
hitting in 2009 at .313-6-58/.813 and bettered that in 2011 between
AA and AAA at .315-5-43/.824.
The
Brewers third round pick in 2008, Shafer is an excellent defensive
centerfielder with above average range and a strong throwing arm. He
projects to be a much better big league hitter, especially for
average with the ability to reach base, than Brewers outfielder
Carlos Gomez has proven to be over the past three years. The Brewers
signing of 30-year old Japanese outfielder Norichika Aoki complicates
Schafer’s ability to make the Brewers opening day roster, however.
7.
3B Taylor Green –
Baseball-reference player profile
Green
had put himself in a position to challenge for the Brewers third base
job in 2012 before the team signed Aramis Ramirez to play the hot
corner and replace Prince Fielder in the middle of the lineup.
Green hit .336-21-92/.993 OPS between AA and AAA last year and was
solid in Milwaukee in September. He is finally healthy after years
of nagging injuries held him back, and will play all year in 2012 at
25-years old.
Here
is the report on Green after he came to the 2004 Perfect Game
Pre-Draft Showcase as a unheralded teenage shortstop from British
Columbia. This pretty much nailed it:
Green’s
a left handed hitting middle infielder from Canada with a strong left
handed bat. He’ll probably end up at second base or third base at
the next level but his bat is going to produce enough to carry him
there. Green’s stroke is short and quick to the ball and he has
good present strength in his hands and hips to generate raw bat
speed. His first two at bats were against Matt Walker and Eric
Cordier, the two top prospects at the Showcase, and he hit the ball
hard both times.
8.
RHP Michael Fiers –
Baseball-reference player profile
Fiers
is the unlikeliest of prospects, a 22nd round pick out of
NAIA Nova Southeastern in Florida (where one of his teammates was
Astros OF J.D. Martinez) who signed just before his 24th birthday. That the Brewers would sign a player that old is highly
unusual in the world of scouting, but Fiers had just gone 10-3 with
145 Ks in 108 innings.
All
he has done since is get to the big leagues with little or no
resistance from minor league hitters. He went 13-3, 1.86 with 132 Ks
in 126 innings between AA and AAA in 2011 before getting his
September call-up.
Fiers
raw stuff is just average on the big league scale, but he throws all
the pitches and has plus command and pitchability. You can’t argue
with success, and Fiers has had plenty more of it than all the highly
regarded top round picks the Brewers have made in the past few years.
9.
RHP Santo Manzanillo –
Baseball-reference player profile
It
took Manzanillo four years to get out of rookie ball, and he missed
the entire 2009 season after Tommy John surgery, but the Dominican
native has quickly made up for lost time. He has the best velocity
in the Brewers system, capable of hitting the upper 90s with some
consistency while touching 100 mph. He’s overcome his early career
control problems (102 walks in 76 innings in the three rookie ball
seasons) and dominated in 2011 between Hi A and AA (1-1, 1.75, 17
saves).
Manzanillo
almost lost all of that due to an offseason car accident in the
Dominican when he rolled his car and was ejected, but only suffered a
separated shoulder and other more minor injuries. He has recently
begun throwing again at the Brewers spring training camp and is
expected to make a full recovery.
10.
RHP Brooks Hall –
Baseball-reference player profile
Hall
is curiously missing from the discussion about Brewers top prospects
among many analysts and it’s hard to understand why, knowing his
background and what he’s done thus far in pro ball after being the
team’s fourth round pick in 2010.
Hall
first came to PG events as a 5-11/140 rising high school freshman, a
primary shortstop who threw 75 mph off the mound. He grew to his
current 6-5/200 but was still a primary shortstop until his senior
year, when everyone realized that Hall, then throwing 90-92, with
reports of his touching 95 mph and spinning a tight slider, was a
better pitching prospect.
Hall
is now 21-years old, has a fresh, healthy arm, throws strikes (25
walks in 100 innings in 2011), is a top level athlete and has enough
innings under his belt to understand pitching now. Expect a huge
breakout year in 2012.
Others
in the Conversation: RHP Nick Bucci, OF Caleb Gindl, RHP Kyle
Heckathorn, RHP Jorge Lopez, LHP Dan Meadows, RHP Jimmy Nelson, 1B
Nick Ramirez, RHP Cody Scarpetta