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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 Super Regional Predictions

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6/5/2012 9:35:31 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2096
Okay here goes. Let's start with the four super regional matchups, then I'll provide the rules.

Super regional pairings

The upper team is the favored (host) team. The numbers byond the win-loss-percentages are rankings from Boyd and Massey plus Boyd's ISR-based probabilities for winning the super regionals.
Conf. .Team . . . . W. . L. . .Pct. . Boyd. .Msey. .RPI . . Prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------
PAC . .UCLA . . . . 45 . 14 . 0.763 . . 1 . . .1 . . .1 . . 83.7
MWC . .TCU. . . . . 40 . 20 . 0.667 . .22 . . 22 . . 32 . . 16.3

PAC . .Oregon . . . 45 . 17 . 0.726 . . 3 . . .2 . . .5 . . 86.8
MAC . .Kent St. . . 44 . 17 . 0.721 . .54 . . 53 . . 59 . . 13.2

PAC . .Arizona. . . 41 . 17 . 0.707 . . 6 . . .4 . . .9 . . 93.9
BgE . .St. John . . 40 . 21 . 0.656 . .64 . . 68 . . 39 . . .6.1

ACC . .Florida St . 46 . 15 . 0.754 . . 7 . . 13 . . .3 . . 56.0
PAC . .Stanford . . 41 . 16 . 0.719 . . 2 . . .3 . . 12 . . 44.0
Scoring

There are four possibilities for each super regional:
  • 0-2: The team loses the first two games and is done.
  • 1-2: The team wins one of the first two then loses the third game and is done.
  • 2-1: The team wins one of the first two games then wins the third and goes to Omaha.
  • 2-0: The team wins the first two games and goes to Omaha.
I've upped the scores a bit, especially on the winning end, to provide a possible range similar to our regular season prediction scores. Here's how the scoring goes. Your pick is along the top; actual result is on the side:
Your pick: . 0-2. 1-2. 2-1. 2-0
0-2. . . . . .6 . .4 . .2 . .0
1-2. . . . . .4 . .6 . .3 . .1
2-1. . . . . .1 . .3 . .6 . .5
2-0. . . . . .0 . .1 . .4 . .7
Note that a team that goes 2-0 will give you the most points if you pick them to go 2-0 and almost as much if you pick them to go 2-1. (Connor, this note is for you.) This kind of encourages optimism, but it also provides some separation.

Tiebreaker

By luck we didn't need a tiebreaker last week, but we probably will this week. And it's this: Guess the average runs scored per game by Stony Brook in the Baton Rouge super regional. Fractional numbers are okay. (The number will likely be a third, half, two-thirds.) And try to pick a number DIFFERENT from everyone else's.

For some perspective: The Seawolves averaged 10.0 runs per game in the Coral Gables regional against Miami, Missouri State, and UCF. They have the highest winning percentage in the field (50-12, .806) and are ISR 67. Boyd gives them a 6.9% to beat LSU, which is better than St. John's odds against Arizona.

Sample ballot

Here's what a sample ballot would look like:
  • Ariz 2-0
  • Ore 0-2
  • Stan 1-2
  • UCLA 2-1
  • Stony Brook: 7.33
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6/6/2012 2:41:28 PM

WildCard85
WildCard85
Posts: 68
Ariz 2-1
Ore 2-0
Stan 2-1
UCLA 2-0
StonyBrook 1.70

GO CARDINAL !!!
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6/6/2012 4:09:10 PM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1017
Ariz 2-0
Ore 2-0
Stanford 0-2
UCLA 2-0

Stony Brook: 5.5
edited by ASU74 on 6/6/2012
edited by ASU74 on 6/6/2012
edited by ASU74 on 6/6/2012
edited by ASU74 on 6/7/2012
edited by ASU74 on 6/7/2012

--
Go Devils !!
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6/6/2012 6:34:56 PM

SouthernBeaver
SouthernBeaver
Posts: 200
Ariz 2-0
Ore 2-0
Stan 1-2
UCLA 2-0

Stony Brook: 2.66666666666666666666666666666666
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6/6/2012 10:01:29 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1081
Ariz 2-0
Ore 2-0
Stan 1-2
ACLU 2-0

Stony Brook 2.89
edited by Florida Beaver on 6/7/2012
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6/6/2012 10:41:14 PM

MostUnknown
MostUnknown
Posts: 156
Ariz 2-0
Ore 2-0
Stan 1-2
UCLA 2-0

Stony Brook: 6.66
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6/6/2012 11:24:51 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2096
Okay, this is slow going.................

Florida Beaver wrote:
Ariz 2-0
Ore 2-0
Stan 1-2
ACLU 2-0

FB, I need a Stony Brook average score. Only five votes so far, and you are one of three with the same picks.
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6/6/2012 11:28:58 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2127
Uh.. sorry.. just got back from the Peacock..
Ariz 2-0
Ore 2-0]
Stan 1-2
ACLU 2-0
stoney.. 6.666 or something like that...
edited by Riverduck on 6/6/2012
+1 permalink
6/6/2012 11:31:07 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2127
Uh.. ACLA.. is that a joke.
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6/6/2012 11:46:56 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2096
Riverduck wrote:
Uh.. sorry.. just got back from the Peacock..
Ariz 2-0
Ore 2-0]
Stan 1-2
ACLU 2-0
stoney.. 6.666 or something like that...
edited by Riverduck on 6/6/2012

Please pick a slightly different tiebreaker. That one has to be unique, and the demonic number is taken by an ACLU fan.
+1 permalink
6/6/2012 11:50:10 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2096
Are you just copying FB's picks? And his misspellings?
+1 permalink
6/7/2012 1:09:23 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1081
Dodger Matt wrote:
Are you just copying FB's picks? And his misspellings?



I think RD just has duklexia.

As for myself, I think Southern Cal and its liberal agenda and I think ACLU. Hmmmmm.
+2 permalink
6/7/2012 10:11:05 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2127
Dodger Matt wrote:
Riverduck wrote:
Uh.. sorry.. just got back from the Peacock..
Ariz 2-0
Ore 2-0]
Stan 1-2
UCLU 2-0
stoney.. 2.38 or something like that...
edited by Riverduck on 6/6/2012

Please pick a slightly different tiebreaker. That one has to be unique, and the demonic number is taken by an ACLU fan.

Oh, sorry. this weather has put me in a funk. I think 2.38 will work. You can change the A to U as well.
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6/7/2012 6:23:28 PM

MostUnknown
MostUnknown
Posts: 156
Dodger Matt wrote:
Riverduck wrote:
Uh.. sorry.. just got back from the Peacock..
Ariz 2-0
Ore 2-0]
Stan 1-2
ACLU 2-0
stoney.. 6.666 or something like that...
edited by Riverduck on 6/6/2012

Please pick a slightly different tiebreaker. That one has to be unique, and the demonic number is taken by an ACLU fan.


Could someone let me know what time the Beavers play? I've looked all over and can't seem to find anything. bad razz
edited by MostUnknown on 6/7/2012
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6/7/2012 6:33:13 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2096
Ariz 2-0
Ore 2-0
Stan 2-1
UCLA 2-0

Stony Brook: 3-1/3

I don't think they'll score much in game one. Assuming they'll win game two, and make a close game three, otherwise I would predict a higher average. If they lose game two, I think it'll still be with a higher score than game one...could be a difference of 2 plus 4 or 1 plus 5.
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6/7/2012 6:37:13 PM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1017
Could someone let me know what time the Beavers play? I've looked all over and can't seem to find anything. bad razz
edited by MostUnknown on 6/7/2012

MostUnknown:
6/9/12 @ 11:00 PM EDT
edited by ASU74 on 6/7/2012
edited by ASU74 on 6/7/2012
edited by ASU74 on 6/7/2012

--
Go Devils !!
Fork Off
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6/7/2012 7:25:24 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2096
Fred, you might want to edit that ONE MORE TIME.

In other news, here are the regional conference records for those teams that have advanced:

Conference. . . . W. . . L. . . Pct. . . Adv
Mid-Am. . . . . . 3. . . 0. . . 1.000. . 1/1
Pac-10. . . . . .14. . . 2. . . 0.875. . 4/5
American East . . 4. . . 1. . . 0.800. . 1/1
Big East. . . . . 5. . . 2. . . 0.714. . 1/2
SEC . . . . . . .19. . . 8. . . 0.704. . 4/8
Big XII . . . . .10. . . 6. . . 0.625. . 2/4
Mtn West. . . . . 5. . . 3. . . 0.625. . 1/2
ACC . . . . . . .14. . .11. . . 0.560. . 2/7
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6/7/2012 8:02:45 PM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1017
Dodger Matt wrote:
Fred, you might want to edit that ONE MORE TIME.



Sometimes ya can't get the mind and the fingers to work in concert.......then others times ya just can't make up your mind.....and everyone can see that I am either physically or mentally incompentent....or BOTHFart/Flame the noob
edited by ASU74 on 6/7/2012

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Go Devils !!
Fork Off
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6/7/2012 8:46:58 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1272
Ariz 2-1
Ore 2-0
Stan 2-1
UCLA 2-1

Stony Brook: 2.1

I tried to be just a tad bit different with my picks.
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6/7/2012 8:50:14 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1272
RD, somehow I pictured you spending your time at Squirrels, not the Peacock I spent many a night at the Peacock back in my college days and beyond.

Riverduck wrote:
Uh.. sorry.. just got back from the Peacock..
Ariz 2-0
Ore 2-0]
Stan 1-2
ACLU 2-0
stoney.. 6.666 or something like that...
edited by Riverduck on 6/6/2012
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