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5/22/2012 6:29:06 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2083
Y9our place for all discussion on the Civil War between Oregon State and Oregon.

To kick things off, here are some Pac-12 numbers in various stats for both teams. The parenthetcial number to the left is the team's place within the Pac-12. Highlighted numbers indicate an advantage. Looks like an offense (OSU) versus a defense (Oregon).


. . . . . . . . . . Oregon State . . . Oregon
Batting . . . . . . . 7) .285. . . . .10) .266
Slugging. . . . . . . 6) .407. . . . . 8) .379
OBP . . . . . . . . . 3) .384. . . . . 8) .359
Runs. . . . . . . . . 3) 336 . . . . . 8) 265
Hits. . . . . . . . . 7) 509 . . . . . 8) 481
RBIs. . . . . . . . . 4) 302 . . . . . 8) 231
Doubles . . . . . . . 4) 102 . . . . . 8) 84
Triples . . . . . . . 8) 9 . . . . . . 3) 19
Homers. . . . . . . . 3) 33. . . . . . 7) 27
Total bases . . . . . 5) 728 . . . . . 8) 684
Walks . . . . . . . . 1) 230 . . . . . 2) 209
HBP . . . . . . . . . 3) 72. . . . . . 6) 63
Strikeouts. . . . . . 8) 318 . . . . .10) 352
Sac bunts . . . . . . 1) 77. . . . . . 2) 73
Sac flies . . . . . . 6) 23. . . . . . 9) 18
Steal attempts. . . . 8) 55. . . . . . 2) 105
Stolen bases. . . . . 6) 38. . . . . . 3) 66
-----------------------------------------------
Caught opponents. . . 1) .561. . . . . 2) .521
ERA . . . . . . . . . 6) 3.62. . . . . 1) 2.93
OBA . . . . . . . . . 8) .265. . . . . 1) .227
Struck out. . . . . . 3) 352 . . . . . 1) 373
Struck out looking. . 2) 104 . . . . . 1) 109
Saves . . . . . . . . 3) 12. . . . . . 1) 19
Picked off. . . . . . 5) 6 . . . . . . 1) 15
Hits allowed. . . . . 9) 464 . . . . . 1) 399
Runs allowed. . . . . 7) 244 . . . . . 1) 187
Earned runs allowed . 7) 189 . . . . . 2) 162
Walks allowed . . . . 7) 183 . . . . . 11) 196
Doubles allowed . . . 7) 77. . . . . . 1) 52
Triples allowed . . . 8) 14. . . . . . 2) 8
Homers allowed. . . . 5) 18. . . . . . 2) 16
Wild pitches. . . . . 9) 38. . . . . . 5) 30
Balks . . . . . . . . 5) 4 . . . . . . 8) 8
Hit batters . . . . . 5) 49. . . . . .11) 71
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5/22/2012 7:27:19 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2113
Dodger Matt wrote:
Y9our place for all discussion on the Civil War between Oregon State and Oregon.

To kick things off, here are some Pac-12 numbers in various stats for both teams. The parenthetcial number to the left is the team's place within the Pac-12. Highlighted numbers indicate an advantage. Looks like an offense (OSU) versus a defense (Oregon).


. . . . . . . . . . Oregon State . . . Oregon
Batting . . . . . . . 7) .285. . . . .10) .266
Slugging. . . . . . . 6) .407. . . . . 8) .379
OBP . . . . . . . . . 3) .384. . . . . 8) .359
Runs. . . . . . . . . 3) 336 . . . . . 8) 265
Hits. . . . . . . . . 7) 509 . . . . . 8) 481
RBIs. . . . . . . . . 4) 302 . . . . . 8) 231
Doubles . . . . . . . 4) 102 . . . . . 8) 84
Triples . . . . . . . 8) 9 . . . . . . 3) 19
Homers. . . . . . . . 3) 33. . . . . . 7) 27
Total bases . . . . . 5) 728 . . . . . 8) 684
Walks . . . . . . . . 1) 230 . . . . . 2) 209
HBP . . . . . . . . . 3) 72. . . . . . 6) 63
Strikeouts. . . . . . 8) 318 . . . . .10) 352
Sac bunts . . . . . . 1) 77. . . . . . 2) 73
Sac flies . . . . . . 6) 23. . . . . . 9) 18
Steal attempts. . . . 8) 55. . . . . . 2) 105
Stolen bases. . . . . 6) 38. . . . . . 3) 66
-----------------------------------------------
Caught opponents. . . 1) .561. . . . . 2) .521
ERA . . . . . . . . . 6) 3.62. . . . . 1) 2.93
OBA . . . . . . . . . 8) .265. . . . . 1) .227
Struck out. . . . . . 3) 352 . . . . . 1) 373
Struck out looking. . 2) 104 . . . . . 1) 109
Saves . . . . . . . . 3) 12. . . . . . 1) 19
Picked off. . . . . . 5) 6 . . . . . . 1) 15
Hits allowed. . . . . 9) 464 . . . . . 1) 399
Runs allowed. . . . . 7) 244 . . . . . 1) 187
Earned runs allowed . 7) 189 . . . . . 2) 162
Walks allowed . . . . 7) 183 . . . . . 11) 196
Doubles allowed . . . 7) 77. . . . . . 1) 52
Triples allowed . . . 8) 14. . . . . . 2) 8
Homers allowed. . . . 5) 18. . . . . . 2) 16
Wild pitches. . . . . 9) 38. . . . . . 5) 30
Balks . . . . . . . . 5) 4 . . . . . . 8) 8
Hit batters . . . . . 5) 49. . . . . .11) 71

So it looks like pitching is the reason for our success? Probably just 1 part of maybe 4 things we could compare. I am thinking other things like fielding percentage, coaching, and chemistry. Really hard to put stats on the coaching and chemistry, but maybe you could break down things like walk off wins, come from behind after the 8th..
Really black and white with the pitching and hitting categories though. Maybe put down what the numbers compare nationally.
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5/22/2012 9:14:10 PM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1016
It has really been fun this year being a fly on the wall listening to all the posturing between the Beaver fans and the Duck fan(s). Now may be the time for both sides to "man up".

A few years ago I made a wager with a Razorback friend of mine. The bet was simple. If ASU won the series she had to wear an ASU shirt & hat during a game at Baum. If Arkansas won, I had to do the same. ASU lost, and I had to wear the Razorback gear at the next game I went to in Packard, which was the Tempe Regional.

The proof that the wager was fulfilled was a photo.

I propose that if the Ducks win this series, that the OSU fans purchase a Duck hat & shirt and wear it at their next home game & the same goes for Duck fans(s). If you loose the series you have to purchase & wear Beaver gear and wear it at your next home game.

The proof that each sides wager is fulfilled are the photos to be posted here on Perfect Game.

If you wish to participate all you have to do is post on this thread that you accept!

Whatch say Oregonians?

--
Go Devils !!
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5/22/2012 10:01:54 PM

ConnorOSU
ConnorOSU
Posts: 119
Haha, I'm going to opt out after my last experience with this kind of bet. For the 2008 Civil War Football game my duck cousin and I made a bet; the loser had to wear the other guy's jersey to school. So I had to walk around all day with one of those stupid, diamond plated shoulder pad Jeremiah Johnson jereseys. Never even going to put myself in that position again.
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5/22/2012 11:05:27 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 990
...the problem I have with the bet, is that I in no way will ever directly financially support that university, whether or not the university actually collects anything from merch sales. Sometimes in life, especially when your Beavers play like straight up poop...all a man has are his principles.

-Opihi
edited by OpihiMan on 5/22/2012
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5/22/2012 11:41:18 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2083
A pair of interesting factoids:

The Ducks, with the best record in the conference, have won all but two conference series this year. The two they lost? To the other two Pacific Northwest teams in the league, Washington (1-2) and Washington State (1-2).

The Beavers have the inverse record against the Evergreen State schools: 2-1 against both. Beating the Ducks would give Oregon State the old Pac-North crown.
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5/23/2012 9:15:49 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2113
OpihiMan wrote:
...the problem I have with the bet, is that I in no way will ever directly financially support that university, whether or not the university actually collects anything from merch sales. Sometimes in life, especially when your Beavers play like straight up poop...all a man has are his principles.
Yeah- I agree as well. I would not want to support the beavs.. one of our donors already does that.. lol. I would be up to a good photoshop rendering of a mug and a hat that is altered via photoshop to actually look like we own the cap. Heck, my skills are so good, after seeing OM with a ducks hat on.. might want to jump ship. LOL

-Opihi
edited by OpihiMan on 5/22/2012
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5/23/2012 9:17:16 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2113
ConnorOSU wrote:
Haha, I'm going to opt out after my last experience with this kind of bet. For the 2008 Civil War Football game my duck cousin and I made a bet; the loser had to wear the other guy's jersey to school. So I had to walk around all day with one of those stupid, diamond plated shoulder pad Jeremiah Johnson jereseys. Never even going to put myself in that position again.

Man, that game was not even close.. lol
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5/23/2012 7:11:45 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2083
I thought I saw someone ask for the stat pairing with national rankings somewhere. Can't find all of them, but here are some. The hard numbers (not listed) are the same as mentioned in the original post. The numbers you see here are each team's rank nationally. For example, both teams are in the top ten in sac bunts: OSU fifth in the nation, Oregon tenth.

For this list, anything in the top 50 nationally is highlighted.

. . . . . . . . . . .OSU. . . . Oregon
Sac bunts . . . . . . .5. . . . . 10
Walks . . . . . . . . 39. . . . . 80
Runs per game . . . . 41. . . . .205
OBP . . . . . . . . . 43. . . . .150
Doubles . . . . . . . 49. . . . .162
Runs. . . . . . . . . 52. . . . .184
HBP . . . . . . . . . 52. . . . . 82
Homers. . . . . . . . 65. . . . .108
Slugging. . . . . . . 72. . . . .153
Sac flies . . . . . . 85. . . . .223
Batting . . . . . . . 99. . . . .211
Hits. . . . . . . . .117. . . . .178
SO-to-walk ratio. . .121. . . . .124
Stolen bases. . . . .217. . . . . 87
DPs per game. . . . . 15. . . . . 63
Fielding. . . . . . . 23. . . . . .8
ERA . . . . . . . . . 67. . . . . 10
Hits allowed. . . . . 87. . . . . .2
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5/24/2012 11:02:23 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2113
Raining ducks and beavers right now.. what is the chance they call off the series, or move it to a all weather stadium? Closest venue is the visiting teams park. Would that happen?
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5/24/2012 12:22:33 PM

DesertBeav
DesertBeav
Posts: 5
Used to follow Kendall on the old site and have been on PG in the shadows for a while before signing up. But I feel it's time to chime in before RiverDuck makes me have a rage stroke. Can't wait for this weekend's series. Was at last weeks OSU-WSU series and had a blast. I agree OpihiMan and Connor, I will not pay any money to the Duckies or will I ever lose another OSU-UO gear bet again. last one had me running down my street in my skivies with a green O painted on my chest at 1 am yelling that the ducks rule...........never again. Go Beavs!!!
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5/24/2012 1:49:11 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1069
DesertBeav wrote:
Used to follow Kendall on the old site and have been on PG in the shadows for a while before signing up. But I feel it's time to chime in before RiverDuck makes me have a rage stroke. Can't wait for this weekend's series. Was at last weeks OSU-WSU series and had a blast. I agree OpihiMan and Connor, I will not pay any money to the Duckies or will I ever lose another OSU-UO gear bet again. last one had me running down my street in my skivies with a green O painted on my chest at 1 am yelling that the ducks rule...........never again. Go Beavs!!!


DesertBeav (hereafter known as DB)

Welcome. Glad to see ya made it after hanging in the shadows for so long. We definitely need more Beaver fans on this site. Don't let RD get under yer skin. He's really not too bad of a guy unless his water babies are doing good (like they seem to be right now). His ego (and loud mouth typing) will get quieted down after this weekend series. But he holds up pretty good under the large Beaver fan crap he received. DF127 don't say much but RD does cover all the bases "vocally".

Again DB, welcome. Stick around and talk it up with the rest of the fans from the best Oregon team and, if I might add, the ONLY Oregon team to have won a CWS trophy.
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5/24/2012 1:55:57 PM

DesertBeav
DesertBeav
Posts: 5
Florida Beaver wrote:
DesertBeav wrote:
Used to follow Kendall on the old site and have been on PG in the shadows for a while before signing up. But I feel it's time to chime in before RiverDuck makes me have a rage stroke. Can't wait for this weekend's series. Was at last weeks OSU-WSU series and had a blast. I agree OpihiMan and Connor, I will not pay any money to the Duckies or will I ever lose another OSU-UO gear bet again. last one had me running down my street in my skivies with a green O painted on my chest at 1 am yelling that the ducks rule...........never again. Go Beavs!!!


DesertBeav (hereafter known as DB)

Welcome. Glad to see ya made it after hanging in the shadows for so long. We definitely need more Beaver fans on this site. Don't let RD get under yer skin. He's really not too bad of a guy unless his water babies are doing good (like they seem to be right now). His ego (and loud mouth typing) will get quieted down after this weekend series. But he holds up pretty good under the large Beaver fan crap he received. DF127 don't say much but RD does cover all the bases "vocally".

Again DB, welcome. Stick around and talk it up with the rest of the fans from the best Oregon team and, if I might add, the ONLY Oregon team to have won a CWS trophy.


Thanks FB, I guess if I get out of hand the DB can stand for other things as well.....
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5/24/2012 2:37:27 PM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1016
OK, looks like no one is going to go for the wager, though newbie DB had the funniest reason why to decline....Got the vid? (welcome abord). I gotta ask ya...Who is going to be at the game and will RD ( &/or duckling-where is he anyhow?) need a security escort?
Gun

--
Go Devils !!
Fork Off
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5/24/2012 3:02:31 PM

DesertBeav
DesertBeav
Posts: 5
ASU74 wrote:
OK, looks like no one is going to go for the wager, though newbie DB had the funniest reason why to decline....Got the vid? (welcome abord). I gotta ask ya...Who is going to be at the game and will RD ( &/or duckling-where is he anyhow?) need a security escort?
Gun


No video, the only person who has it has sworn to keep it under wraps or I get to kick him in the junk with a steel toed boot. won't be at the game, but will watch on Root on Saturday. Our starters didn't look very sharp in Pullman last weekend but I'm hoping the fact that the ducklets can't hit and motivation of revenge will give us a 2-1 series win.
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5/24/2012 4:54:41 PM

ConnorOSU
ConnorOSU
Posts: 119
I'll be there Sunday. And as long as Duck fans don't try to start any fights, they'll be fine. I'm all for rooting on your team and talking trash no matter if I'm in Corvallis, Seattle, or Eugene, but it doesn't go beyond talk. Hopefully Oregon's fans have the same polciy.
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5/24/2012 5:06:33 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2113
DesertBeav wrote:
ASU74 wrote:
OK, looks like no one is going to go for the wager, though newbie DB had the funniest reason why to decline....Got the vid? (welcome abord). I gotta ask ya...Who is going to be at the game and will RD ( &/or duckling-where is he anyhow?) need a security escort?
Gun


No video, the only person who has it has sworn to keep it under wraps or I get to kick him in the junk with a steel toed boot. won't be at the game, but will watch on Root on Saturday. Our starters didn't look very sharp in Pullman last weekend but I'm hoping the fact that the ducklets can't hit and motivation of revenge will give us a 2-1 series win.

We hit when it counts.. You guys use up all you bats at once. Slow burn..
Can Keudell get another shutout from you guys? Reason he is 9-0 and 1.80 era. He is good. Not hard to win when you only have to score one or two. Hey- will your field even be playable?
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5/24/2012 5:08:11 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2113
ConnorOSU wrote:
I'll be there Sunday. And as long as Duck fans don't try to start any fights, they'll be fine. I'm all for rooting on your team and talking trash no matter if I'm in Corvallis, Seattle, or Eugene, but it doesn't go beyond talk. Hopefully Oregon's fans have the same polciy.

Yeah- we can talk trash until the day of the first pitch, then after that you just have to let your team finish it up. Hopefully they win. We really have no control- even though at times we think we do!! May the best team win.
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5/24/2012 6:14:38 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2083
Overall, Oregon has better pitching stats than Oregon State. But let’s look at the starting pitching matchups.

Friday
Keudell, Alex (10-3): 1.80 ERA, .228 OBA, 1.13 WHIP.
Wetzler, Ben (6-2): 3.30 ERA, .245 OBA, 1.44 WHIP.

Clearly Keudell has the better numbers and is probably the best pitcher on both teams. And Keudell did shut out the Beavers in game three last year in Eugene for 6 innings. Wetzler faced 10 batters in relief in that game and gave up a run over 2.1 IP.

Saturday
Reed, Jake (6-3): 3.06 ERA, .242 OBA, 1.36 WHIP.
Fry, Jace (5-3): 2.47 ERA, .211 OBA, 1.22 WHIP.

Have to give the edge to Fry. He has the best OBA and second best numbers in the other categories of all six starters.

Sunday
Gold, Jeff (8-3): 3.26 ERA, .242 OBA, 1.24 WHIP.
Child, Dan (6-3): 2.80 ERA, .271 OBA, 1.32 WHIP.

This one is mixed. Child lets runners on a little bit more often, but stops them from scoring. Close, but looks like an ever-so-slight OSU advantage.

Relief pitching goes to Oregon, especially closer Sherfy. Let's hope OSU's starter go deep.
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5/24/2012 7:59:42 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2083
Massey

For those unfamiliar with Ken Massey’s website, here are some interesting things I dredged up there.

Massey uses an iterative rating system like Boyd’s. If you look at the top 20 teams, you’ll recognize six Pac-12 teams, including the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th. Oregon is #2 under Massey, and OSU is #16. In Massey’s computations for offense and defense, Oregon is ranked 34 OFF and 1 DEF; Oregon State is 11 OFF and 32 DEF.

In the upper left corner of the homepage, click the More button and select Predictions. You’ll find some (not all) games listed for each calendar day and an average score based on their season stats with the home field advantage variable included. You can click through the days. The Friday Civil War game is listed with a predicted 4-3 OSU victory. (All three games would have the same prediction numbers, at least until the recently played game’s results are factored in for the next one, but I doubt they’ll change that much. The two are pretty even foes according to massey, with OSU holding a slim 53 to 47% edge.

You can also create your own matchups. Back on the main page, click the More button and select Matchups. Here you can select two teams and see what an average score between them would be, based on their season stats. For Oregon HOSTING Oregon State, the Ducks’ chances improve to a 59% chance to win, and the 4-3 score flips to the Duck Side. You can also select a number of games played and click the random score generator to get a feel for how a three-game Civil War might play out.
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