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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » PG 64: Projecting the NCAA field (4.3)

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4/3/2012 11:18:08 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7536
Here are the latest projections:

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6827

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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4/3/2012 1:13:46 PM

Hedegoba88
Hedegoba88
Posts: 213
Kendall,

I forget how you do your projections. Is it how you think the season will finish or just a snapshot as of today?
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4/3/2012 5:38:04 PM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7536
Hedegoba88 wrote:
Kendall,

I forget how you do your projections. Is it how you think the season will finish or just a snapshot as of today?


Snapshot as of today ..... If I'm using today's RPI, would make no sense to project until June.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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4/3/2012 7:43:42 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Kendall, not that I'm complaining...matched with Kentucky--that's a ticket to Omaha for the Beavers. If I recollect correctly, you place the national seeds then match regional hosts up with them irrespective of their rankings 9 through 16. So I'll take that pairing.

But my question is this: If you're using the Rat's Patootie Index, why is Oregon State in the 9 to 16 range? Boyd's pseudorat's patootie has OSU at 21. No hosting for Fullerton, NMSU, SoCar, Miami, who have RPIs above OSU? There must be a criterion (or more) that you are using beyond the rat's patootie. Is it just Kendall's gut feeling? Or something else?
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4/3/2012 11:55:29 PM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7536
Dodger Matt wrote:
Kendall, not that I'm complaining...matched with Kentucky--that's a ticket to Omaha for the Beavers. If I recollect correctly, you place the national seeds then match regional hosts up with them irrespective of their rankings 9 through 16. So I'll take that pairing.

But my question is this: If you're using the Rat's Patootie Index, why is Oregon State in the 9 to 16 range? Boyd's pseudorat's patootie has OSU at 21. No hosting for Fullerton, NMSU, SoCar, Miami, who have RPIs above OSU? There must be a criterion (or more) that you are using beyond the rat's patootie. Is it just Kendall's gut feeling? Or something else?


Oregon State actually has a pretty decent resume right now with a good record in the Pac-12. On top of that, there aren't a lot of hosting options out there. Outside of OSU, in terms of the West Coast, there's Cal State Fullerton. And right now, I'd definitely take OSU's resume over that of Cal State Fullerton.

South Carolina has a rough SEC record (though that should change)
Miami is coming off a bad weekend against Miami and just has an OK resume
New Mexico State has no chance of hosting

Did I miss anything?

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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4/4/2012 5:38:08 AM

Carolina Mike
Carolina Mike
Posts: 51
Kendall...I know that there has been more talk the last 2 years about the selection committee not leaning on the RPI rankings as much as in the past. Do you see it that way as well as we get deeper into the season ? What other criteria would come into play if that is the case?

--
Baseball is like church....many attend but few understand.
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4/4/2012 4:32:08 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Kendall wrote:
Dodger Matt wrote:
Kendall, not that I'm complaining...matched with Kentucky--that's a ticket to Omaha for the Beavers. If I recollect correctly, you place the national seeds then match regional hosts up with them irrespective of their rankings 9 through 16. So I'll take that pairing.

But my question is this: If you're using the Rat's Patootie Index, why is Oregon State in the 9 to 16 range? Boyd's pseudorat's patootie has OSU at 21. No hosting for Fullerton, NMSU, SoCar, Miami, who have RPIs above OSU? There must be a criterion (or more) that you are using beyond the rat's patootie. Is it just Kendall's gut feeling? Or something else?


Oregon State actually has a pretty decent resume right now with a good record in the Pac-12. On top of that, there aren't a lot of hosting options out there. Outside of OSU, in terms of the West Coast, there's Cal State Fullerton. And right now, I'd definitely take OSU's resume over that of Cal State Fullerton.

South Carolina has a rough SEC record (though that should change)
Miami is coming off a bad weekend against Miami and just has an OK resume
New Mexico State has no chance of hosting

Did I miss anything?
Oregons resume is similiar.. and I would say that we have played tougher opponents.. but that is all moot in point because we are all playing everyone now.. Ha. Only time will tell, but If two teams were identical, and were 40 miles from each other.. Would Oregon have the edge based on buzz factor/facilities versus tradition and fan base.. OUch!
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4/4/2012 4:34:26 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Riverduck wrote:
Kendall wrote:
Dodger Matt wrote:
Kendall, not that I'm complaining...matched with Kentucky--that's a ticket to Omaha for the Beavers. If I recollect correctly, you place the national seeds then match regional hosts up with them irrespective of their rankings 9 through 16. So I'll take that pairing.

But my question is this: If you're using the Rat's Patootie Index, why is Oregon State in the 9 to 16 range? Boyd's pseudorat's patootie has OSU at 21. No hosting for Fullerton, NMSU, SoCar, Miami, who have RPIs above OSU? There must be a criterion (or more) that you are using beyond the rat's patootie. Is it just Kendall's gut feeling? Or something else?


Oregon State actually has a pretty decent resume right now with a good record in the Pac-12. On top of that, there aren't a lot of hosting options out there. Outside of OSU, in terms of the West Coast, there's Cal State Fullerton. And right now, I'd definitely take OSU's resume over that of Cal State Fullerton.

South Carolina has a rough SEC record (though that should change)
Miami is coming off a bad weekend against Miami and just has an OK resume
New Mexico State has no chance of hosting

Did I miss anything?
Oregons resume is similiar.. and I would say that we have played tougher opponents.. but that is all moot in point because we are all playing everyone now.. Ha. Only time will tell, but If two teams were identical, and were 40 miles from each other.. Would Oregon have the edge based on buzz factor/facilities versus tradition and fan base.. OUch!
If things play out- and both Oregon and OSU deserve a regional host would it, could it happen, or would they play with a different venue and spread it out. Would it ever happen?
edited by Riverduck on 4/4/2012
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4/4/2012 10:11:34 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Riverduck wrote:
If things play out- and both Oregon and OSU deserve a regional host would it, could it happen, or would they play with a different venue and spread it out. Would it ever happen?
edited by Riverduck on 4/4/2012


Would/could it ever happen? Absolutely. Clemson and SoCar have hosted regionals the same year. CSF, UCI, UCLA...there are often cases where multiple sites within a short distance of each other, even in the same metropolis, occur.

This year? Unlikely but not impossible. Both teams would have to be at the top of the Pac-12. Yes, both currently are in the upper half of the conference, but I mean UCLA would have to drop considerably (a good Duck showing this weekend in Westwood might begin the process), and Stanford would have to continue their poor conference play. Will that happen? And it would also require other west coast teams (not in the Pac-12) to NOT be in the top 16-plus nationally. The NCAA likes to have regional representation for "regionals". (Seems like a duh statement, huh?) As Kendall noted in his explanation above, if one of the two Beaver State schools is only a little better than the top LA school for consideration of the last regional site, LA will get the nod. But if both Oregon and OSU are so good by year's end that there is discussion of both being national seeds, it would be nearly impossible to prevent both from hosting, even if only one gets one of the top eight seeds.

But do you think either is national seed material at this point in the season? Keep your eye on the teams in Kendall's regional hosting projections that are ahead of the Ducks and watch how they do. And compare to the Ducks' performance here on out.
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