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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 Predictions: Week 4

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3/5/2012 8:48:09 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2077
Again we have some top 25 OOC opponents, plus a couple of tournaments. This is our last week of preseason games. After this, the conference games start.

This week's games
  • Rice at Stanford
  • UCLA at Georgia
  • Washington at Cal Poly
  • Oklahoma/Connecticut/Illinois at Oregon State
  • Oklahoma/Connecticut/Illinois at Oregon
  • California at Nebraska (+1)
  • Arizona State at Long Beach State
  • Cal State Bakersfield at USC
  • Washington State at UNLV
  • Eastern Michigan at Arizona
  • Lehigh/San Jose State/Columbia vs Utah
Week 4 Series
  • #2 Stanford moves back to the top of the list with a home series against #4 Rice. The Owls are 11-1, suffering their first loss of the season Friday night, an 11-8 affair to Texas in Rice’s hometown Houston College Classic. The same Texas team that Stanford embarrassed in a combined 28-5 sweep at Sunken Diamond two weekends ago. But Stanford also suffered their first loss this weekend, a Friday night 7-4 surprise to Fresno State.
  • A resurgent 8-3 UCLA flies to Athens to take on 10-2 Georgia. Although the Bulldogs are ranked higher than the Bruins and their record appears better, their ten wins are against Presbyterian (3), Georgia State (1), Winthrop (3), Savannah State (1), and Western Illinois (2): all teams in the 150 to 280 range (using last year’s ISRs). The two losses? W-Illi and Western Carolina.
  • Washington travels to beautiful San Luis Obispo to play Cal Poly. Sporting equal records of 9-3, both teams are evenly matched, with Cal Poly trending downward out of the one or two rankings they were in after going 2-2 last week, and UW, receiving votes in some polls, poised to move up into the rankings if they can win this series against the Mustangs.
  • The two Beaver State schools take on the same four opponents in the Nike College Showcase, which will be played in both Eugene and Corvallis. As we did last week with the Coca-Cola Classic that OSU and ASU participated in, I’ve limited the picks here to what I consider the top three opponents: Oklahoma (7-3), UConn (4-6), and Illinois (4-5). (West Virginia (5-5) is also on the docket.) For those of you trying to figure out pitching matchups, OSU will face WVU Friday (not counted for this series), then Connecticut and Illinois Saturday, and Oklahoma Sunday. Oregon will face Illinois Friday, Oklahoma then WVU (not counted) Saturday, and UConn Sunday. Each of these visiting teams will also play two of the other three teams, in addition to Oregon and OSU. Oklahoma is ranked between 16 and 28 in the various polls, so effectively between Oregon and OSU. Connecticut, following a very successful 2011 in which they defeated host Clemson in a regional and racked up 45 wins before falling to eventual NC SoCar, was ranked to start the season, but has fallen out of all the polls after failing to post a winning weekend record yet through three weeks.
  • Cal (8-2) visits Lincoln and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-4) for a 3+1 series. Nebraska doesn’t have many good wins on its short resume yet: Utah (2), NMSU, UNLV, Minnesota, Corpus Christi. Losses include WVU (see Beaver State preview above) and a sweep by undefeated Gonzaga.
  • Long Beach State is trying to outdo Vanderbilt as recipient of the most Pac-12 punishment as they host the Sun Devils. Yes, the Dirtbags took two of three from Cal two weeks ago, but they’ve already lost once to USC and UCLA, and just got swept in Eugene this past weekend. Now they face ASU, who surprisingly lost to the same St. Mary team that beat OSU last week in the Coca-Cola Classic...in Surprise, AZ. The Dirtbags have played Pac-12 teams for eight straight games and are 2-6 so far. After this weekend, they’ll have played 11 of their last 12 against the Pac-12, and they’ll still have three more to go: Wazzu, UCLA, and USC.
  • CS Bakersfield brings a mediocre 6-6 record to LA to take on USC. The Trojans just missed taking an upset win over the Tar Heels when a runner at third, who tried to score on a passed ball was thrown out at the plate just before the next two USC batters singled and would have plated him, the go-ahead run in a scoreless tie. I think USC is underappreciated right now, having dropped in a couple of polls as a result of that series.
  • How the Cougs managed to lose one game against Northern Colorado last week, I don’t understand, but they travel to Las Vegas to take on a tougher 6-6 UNLV, which has wins against LMU, UCI, Bakersfield, and Utah.
  • It seems like yesterday that Arizona’s upstate rivals put a massive ass-whuppin’ on Western Michigan, and here come the Wildcats to do the same to the Wolverine State’s eastern brethren. EMU has a worse record than WMU, but they do have one win (plus two others) over Oral Roberts.
  • Last but least, Utah plays in yet another tournament, the Jack Gifford Memorial Classic in Santa Clara. We’re skipping the Thursday game against the host Broncos and will vote on Lehigh (2-5 after a combined 37-6 sweep at the hands of Cal), San Jose State (3-7), and the ivy League’s Columbia (1-3 after four games against the Citadel). If the Utes can’t beat that lineup, they should ask to be kicked out of the conference.
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3/5/2012 9:51:51 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2077
Okay, I did some quick calculating. Here are the running scores for the preseason picks. Like I said in the last thread, I think almost anyone still has a chance to win the preseason crown with a good score this week, so if that might change your strategy to go all out on some of these series in order to get the big score, go for it.

Excuse the formatting. As soon as I figure out how to specify a monospace font or preformatted code, these'll look easier to to read.

Wks TTL Avg. Name
3 122.0 40.67 CaughtBySparky
3 122.0 40.67 Dodger Matt
3 118.0 39.33 ASU74
3 118.0 39.33 OpihiMan
3 117.0 39.00 ConnorOSU
3 117.0 39.00 FullertonBaseballFan
3 115.0 38.33 Florida Beaver
3 113.0 37.67 WildCard85
2 75.0 37.50 BeaverBeliever20
3 111.0 37.00 MostUnknown
3 107.0 35.67 BeaverBob
2 70.0 35.00 RiverDuck
2 68.0 34.00 borgguy
1 34.0 34.00 omaharocks
1 27.0 27.00 Islander
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3/5/2012 10:25:02 PM

ConnorOSU
ConnorOSU
Posts: 119
Stan 2-1
UCLA 2-1
UW 2-1
OSU 2-1
UO 3-0
Cal 2-1
ASU 2-1
USC 3-0
WSU 2-1
UA 3-0
Utah 2-1
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3/6/2012 2:09:02 AM

CaughtBySparky
CaughtBySparky
Posts: 18
Stan 2-1
UCLA 3-0
UW 2-1
OSU 2-1
UO 2-1
Cal 2-1
ASU 2-1
USC 3-0
WSU 3-0
UA 3-0
Utah 2-1
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3/6/2012 7:08:04 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2099
Rice 2-1
UCLA 2-1
UW -2-1
OSU 3-0
UO - 3-0
Cal - 2-1
ASU 2-1
USC 2-1
WSU 3-0
UA 3-0
Utah 2-1
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3/6/2012 9:23:37 AM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 988
Stan 2-1
UCLA 2-1
UW 3-0
OSU 3-0
UO 1-2 (I'm not writing out all teams, LOL)
Nebraska 2-1 (-1)
ASU 3-0
USC 2-1
UNLV 2-1
UA 3-0
Utah 2-1
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3/6/2012 9:52:36 AM

FullertonBaseballFan
FullertonBaseballFan
Posts: 146
Stan 2-1
Georgia 2-1
CP 2-1
OSU 2-1
UO 2-1
Cal 2-1
ASU 2-1
USC 2-1
WSU 2-1
AZ 3-0
Utah 2-1
edited by FullertonBaseballFan on 3/9/2012
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3/6/2012 5:37:21 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1254
My goal this week is to not be in the cellar with FB.

Stan 2-1
UCLA 2-1
UW 2-1
OSU 2-1
UO 2-1
Cal 2-1
ASU 2-1
USC 2-1
WSU 2-1
UA 3-0
Utah 2-1
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3/6/2012 7:51:31 PM

WildCard85
WildCard85
Posts: 67
STAN 3-0
UCLA 2-1
Cal Poly 2-1
OSU 3-0
Oregon 3-0
Neb 2-1
ASU 2-1
USC 2-1
WSU 2-1
UA 3-0
Utah 2-1
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3/6/2012 9:50:32 PM

MostUnknown
MostUnknown
Posts: 156
Stan 2-1
UCLA 2-1
Poly 2-1
OSU 2-1
Ore 2-1
Cal 2-1
ASU 3-0
USC 3-0
WSU 2-1
UofA 3-0
Utah 2-1
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3/6/2012 11:20:58 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2077
FullertonBaseballFan wrote:
Stan 2-1
Georgia 2-1
CP 2-1
OSU 2-1
UO 2-1
Cal 3-1
ASU 2-1
USC 2-1
WSU 2-1
AZ 3-0
Utah 2-1


Yes, Cal and Nebraska play four games, but for our purposes, that fourth game doesn't exist. I need a prediction for the first three games, and you can say +1 or -1 for the fourth game meaning the team you picked to go 2-1 or 3-0 would win or lose the last game. So it would be either Cal 2-1 +1 or Cal 3-0 -1.

Note that you don't get extra points for predicting the fourth game. But you definitely lose points if you don't eliminate the ambiguity.
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3/7/2012 2:07:09 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1067
Dam BBob...That hurt. Who else am I gonna get to sit with me in the cellar? If I gotta sit in the dark, at least I want a beaver with me.
edited by Florida Beaver on 3/8/2012
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3/7/2012 6:47:47 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2077
Stan 2-1
UCLA 2-1
UW 2-1
OSU 2-1
Ore 3-0
Cal 2-1
ASU 3-0
USC 2-1
WSU 2-1
Ariz 3-0
Utah 2-1
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3/7/2012 7:35:54 PM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1016
Stan 2-1
Georgia 2-1
Washington 2-1
O State 2-1
Oregon 3-0
Cal 2-1
ASU 3-0
USC 3-0
WSU 2-1
Arizona 3-0
Utah 2-1

--
Go Devils !!
Fork Off
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3/8/2012 12:08:46 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1067
Okay, this week I wanna just do better than being last.

Stan 2-1
UCLA 2-1
UW 2-1
OSU 3-0
UO 3-0
Cal 2-1
ASU 3-0
USC 3-0
WSU 2-1
UA 3-0
Ute 1-2
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3/8/2012 8:50:14 AM

cswanson2k7
cswanson2k7
Posts: 16
Stanford 2-1
Georgia 2-1
Cal Poly 2-1
OSU 2-1
UO 3-0
Nebraska 2-1 (+1)
ASU 2-1
USC 3-0
WSU 2-1
UA 3-0
Utah 2-1
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3/8/2012 6:23:58 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2077
Greetings, cswanson2k7. Do you have a Pac-12 team that you claim some allegiance to, or are you an unaffiliated fan?
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3/9/2012 10:48:07 AM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 545
3rd time trying to post

after missing a week IM BACK!

Stan 2-1
Georgia 2-1
UW 2-1
OSU 2-1 (+1)
UO 2-1 (+1)
Neb 2-1 (-1)
ASU 3-0
USC 3-0
UNLV 2-1
UA 3-0
Utah 2-1

--
GO BEAVS!
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3/10/2012 12:02:32 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2077
Day one

The Pac-12 was 8-3 today, with big wins over Rice and Georgia. In non-Pac-12 action (related to the conference), there was one surprise in Eugene as the #16 Oklahoma Sooners lost to Connecticut in the first game of the Nike College Showcase. As the top-ranked team in the 6-team tournament, Oklahoma still has to face West Virginia and #18 Oregon Saturday, then #22 Oregon State. Could be a long weekend for the Sooners. Also note that there is rain in the forecast for Corvallis and Eugene Saturday and Sunday, and with multiple games scheduled at both sites, if any games are canceled, I may substitute one of the “skipped” games if necessary to provide three games for either Oregon or OSU.
  • Stanford 4, Rice 2 (10 innings): Rice jumped on Mark Appel for 2 runs in the 1st on a walk, single, and a walk, then a 2-out, 2-run single by JT Chargois. Stanford got them back in the 3rd on Lonnie Kauppila’s leadoff double, a HPB, sac bunt, wild pitch, and a groundout. The game remained tied 2-2 until the 10th, when Rice’s Tyler Duffey walked Tyler Gaffney with one out, and Justin Ringo launched a two-run homer over the right field fence. Matt Reckling was very good, going 6 innings for the Owls and allowing 3 hits, 2 earned runs, 4 walks, 2 HBP, and 7 strikeouts. Appel was better, going a full 9 innings, and allowing 4 hits, 2 earned runs, 2 walks, 1 HBP, and 14 strikeouts, but did not figure in the decision.
    Stanford leads series 1-0.

  • UCLA 2, Georgia 0: Adam Plutko tossed a 5-hit, complete game shutout of the Bulldogs, striking out 11 and walking none. JR RF Jeff Gelalich was 4 for 4 for the Bruins, but Trevor Brown had both of UCLA’s RBIs, knocking Gelalich in and scoring himself on a two-run homer in the 4th that accounted for all of the scoring in the game.
    UCLA leads series 1-0.

  • Cal Poly 6, Washington 3: Washington led off the game with a walk, sac bunt, single, and a walk to load the bases, then Branden Berry singled to third and Chase Anselment singled through the right side to give the Huskies a 2-0 lead. Cal Poly got one back in their half on a hit batsman and a double. The Mustangs got two more in the 3rd on a couple of errors and a triple. UW made it 4-3 in the 7th, but Cal Poly scored two more in the bottom half for the final score. Anselment led the Dawgs, going 2 for 4 with 1 RBI. Cal Poly’s freshman RF Nick Torres finished 3 for 4 with 5 RBIs.
    Cal Poly leads series 1-0.

  • Oregon State 11, West Virginia 0 (7 innings): As the visiting team, the Beavers scored in the top of the 2nd on a couple singles, a passed ball, and a groundout. Leading 4-0 after five, the Beavs blew the game open with 7 runs in the 7th. In his best game yet as a Beaver, Ben Wetzler (3-0) gave up a leadoff infield single in the 3rd, and that was all, as he pitched the full mercy-shortened 7 innings and struck out 8. SO catcher jake Rodriguez was 2 for 3 with 3 RBIs for the Beavers. One last note of interest to Beaver fans: Much-heralded freshman southpaw Jace Fry is supposed to get his first start for the Beavers in one of the games tomorrow.
    Series tied 0-0 (+1).

  • Illinois 2, Oregon 1: The Ducks got on the board first in the 2nd, with a pair of doubles, by Ryon Healy and Kyle Garlick. The Illini evened it in the 4th then jumped ahead 2-1 in the 6th on a 2-out single and a triple. Alex Keudell pitched 8 innings and took the loss, giving up 6 hits and 2 earned runs.
    Oregon trails series 0-1.

  • California 11, Nebraska 8 (11 innings): Cal scored 7 runs through three innings, five of them in the 3rd, in what looked like a cakewalk. But Nebraska plated four in the 5th and two in the 8th then two more in the 9th to tie it 8-8. In the 11th, Cal’s Vince Bruno led off with a single and was followed by Chadd Krist’s double. After an IBB to load the bags, Chris Paul singled in two, and Chad Bunting scored on a passed ball to win 11-8. Logan Scott pitched 3.1 IP and allowed 2 runs (both unearned) to blow the save and vulture the win. Bunting was 1 for 5 with a 2-out 3-run homer in the 3rd.
    Cal leads series 1-0.

  • Arizona State 3, Long Beach 2 (12 innings): ASU scored solo runs in the first two innings, and Long Beach added a couple pickets to the fence in the 2nd and 5th, and the game remained a 2-2 tie for 6-plus innings. In the 12th, ASU scored the go-ahead run on a single, sac bunt, and Andrew Aplin’s single. In the bottom of the 12th, the Dirtbags moved the tying run to third with two outs, then SS Matt Duffy grounded out to short on a 1-0 pitch to end the game. Aplin was 2 for 6 with 1 RBI and 1 run scored.
    Arizona State leads series 1-0.

  • USC 6, CS Bakersfield 5: USC came from behind to take game one in the bottom of the 9th. They led 2-0 after five, but Bakersfield scored two in the 6th to tie it then two more in the 7th to take a 4-2 lead. The Trojans tied it in the bottom of the 7th, then Bakersfield scraped a run in the 8th for a 5-4 lead. In the bottom of the 9th, the Trojans got runners at the corners on an error and a single. Kevin Roundtree grounded out to score one and advance Matt Foat to second. Then Kevin Swick singled Foat in with the winning run. Swick went 2 for 5 with 2 RBIs. The Roadrunners finished with a 5-5-5 (runs, hits, errors). Trivia of the day: The losing pitcher, CSUB’s Spenser Messmore, graduated from Dodger Matt’s alma mater, Alemany High School in Mission Hills, CA.
    USC leads series 1-0.

  • UNLV 2, Washington State 1: The Cougs had a run erased from the board when a throw from the catcher on a double-steal flew into center field and the umpire ruled batter interference. JD Leckenby allowed both runs (earned) and took the loss, throwing 5.1 IP. UNLV’s Mark Shannon was 3 for 4 with a solo homer and 1 RBI.
    UNLV leads series 1-0.

  • Arizona 9, EMU 2: Arizona scored 7 runs in the first two innings then hit cruise control. Robert Refsnyder was 2 for 4 with 3 RBIs for the Cats.
    Arizona leads series 1-0.

  • Utah 11, Lehigh 3: The Utes scored five runs in the 2nd, topped by Connor Eppard’s grand slam, and six in the 3rd. Eppard was 3 for 4, with 6 RBIs.
    Utah leads series 1-0.

edited by Dodger Matt on 3/11/2012
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3/10/2012 9:01:12 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 988
Is Oregon State technically 0-0 since West Virginia doesn't count?
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