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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 predictions: 2013 Week 13

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5/8/2013 8:28:09 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2082
Looking ahead to the last three weeks of Pac-12 play. Here are the standings and the schedules for the next three weeks:
.1 OSU . . 17 . 4 . 0.810 . @Stan, @Ore, WSU
.2 Ore . . 19 . 5 . 0.792 . bye, OSU, @Utah
.3 UCLA. . 14 . 7 . 0.667 . Ariz, @USC, @Stan
.4 ASU . . 12 . 9 . 0.571 . @Cal, Ariz, @UW
.5 Stan. . 11 .10 . 0.524 . OSU, @Cal, UCLA
.6 Ariz. . 10 .11 . 0.476 . @UCLA, @ASU, USC
.7 UW. . . .8 .13 . 0.381 . Utah, @WSU, ASU
.8 Cal . . .9 .15 . 0.375 . ASU, Stan, bye
.9 USC . . .8 .13 . 0.381 . WSU, UCLA, @Ariz
10 WSU . . .7 .14 . 0.333 . @USC, UW, @OSU
11 Utah. . .5 .19 . 0.208 . @UW, bye, Ore
Although UCLA still has an outside chance, and even ASU and Stanford are not mathematically eliminated from winning the conference, the fact is this is a race between Oregon and Oregon State. Looking at the remaining games, you have to say that the team with the easiest path to the championship is.....Oregon. They play a nonconference foe (another OSU) and come home to prepare for Oregon State in the Civil War at home. Now that might not end up being much of a home field advantage, but with their last tough opponent visiting their ballpark and finishing on the road against the league’s last place team, Oregon’s chances appear much better than the Beavs’.

Oregon State travels to Stanford next week, where Mark Appel awaits them on Friday. Matt Boyd has been hurling as well as Appel, arguably better, when you compare head-to-head stats. But the Cardinal just took two of three on the road from ASU and may be on another upswing in their seesaw season. That will not be an easy road win for OSU. Then they take on Oregon. Nuff said. In their final week--if they emerge from the previous two series victorious, even with 2-1 tallies in both--they will still probabbly need to sweep Wazzu to win the title outright (not counting tiebreakers). With the way the Cougars have been playing, that might not be as hard as sweeping Utah on the road, but things don’t always work out in real life the way they should on paper.

UCLA is the only other team with a slim chance of winning the crown. But let’s say they sweep their remaining 9 games and end up 23-7. For the Bruins to win, OSU would have to finish no better than 5-4 and Oregon no better than 3-3. One scenario that would work for this to happen is if OSU were to sweep the Ducks but lose their other two series. There are others, but the likelihood of both Beaver State teams doing that poorly coupled with a three-weekend sweep from UCLA is not very high. In fact, the likelihood of UCLA even getting to second place is not that high right now. It’s Beavers versus Ducks.

This week’s games
OSU at Stan
Ariz at UCLA
ASU at Cal
WSU at USC
Utah at UW
Ore at XOS (Ohio State)

An example ballot would look like this:
OSU 2-1
Ariz 2-1
Cal 2-1
WSU 3-0
Utah 3-0
XOS 2-1


Week 12 Series

  • Last week it looked like most people were beginning to believe that Stanford was overrated the whole season, but they managed to best ASU 2 of 3 in Tempe and now bring some momentum home with a few weeks to salvage their postseason hopes. They face the red-hot Beavers, coming off their 8th consecutive conference win. Statistically, the Beavers are better than Stanford in every major category: Batting (4th vs. 6th), pitching (1st vs. 4th), and fielding (7th vs. 8th). Looking closer at the pitching, OSU’s three starters (not to mention the entire staff) are all under 2.00 ERA and all three are in the top six in the conference. Friday night’s matchup features #4 Mark Appel vs. #6 Matt Boyd.
  • Arizona’s embarrassment last week at the hands of the Huskies just highlights how hot and cold this team is. Their hopes of playing in the postseason require a good showing against their last three opponents. Against UCLA, ti will be a classic case of good hitting facing good pitching. The Wildcats are still tops in the BA, with a team average .305. UCLA is next to last with .249. The teams are almost the exact opposite in ERA: UCLA’s 2.72 (2nd) to Arizona’s 4.24 (9th).
  • Arizona State did not fare well against Stanford last week, but they expect a better result against the Cardinal’s Bay Area rival in Berkeley. ASU is better in batting (2nd) and pitching (6th) than Cal (9th and 10th).
  • The only reason Wazzu vs. USC is not the last series this week is my contention that these two teams are not as bad as they really are. Okay, they really are...but they’re not really that bad. And they’re really close in their badness and either team could look really good in this series. And it should be close. Got it? Both teams are in the upper half in batting and lower half in pitching. With a lot of offense, anything can happen.
  • Earlier in the year, this would have been easily the least compelling matchup, a series between the last-place and next-to-last place teams. But UW has shown some moxie in their sucky season, and Utah does have some good wins on their resume, in addition to some underappreciated players. Will anyone be surprised by a victory, even a convincing sweep, from either team? Probably not, and that’s a shame. UW has the edge over Utah in all three major categories, but the gap is not great in any of them. The Huskies have to get another bonus from playing in Seattle, where they are 8-8 overall and 5-4 in conference.
  • The Ducks fly eastward to take on another OSU in this week’s noncon series. Ohio State is a pretty good Big Ten team. At 33-15 and in second play in conference, Ohio State has a surprisingly decent ISR of 61 and an even better RPI of 51. The Buckeyes are 15-5 at home, but Oregon is 18-6 on the road. Statistically, tOSU has a .270 team batting average compared to Oregon’s .268, so a virtual tie. If the Buckeyes were in the Pac-12, their team ERA of 3.21 would be 4th best in the conference, compared to number 3 Oregon’s 2.78. This series looks like it could be pretty good. Expect the Big Ten team, hungry for some respect and not able to count on a second-place finish in conference as enough to make the postseason, to fight really hard against a highly ranked Pac-12 team for the RPI boost that would give them.

edited by Dodger Matt on 5/9/2013
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5/11/2013 2:50:54 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 545
Guessing that Dodger Matt is out enjoying this beautiful weekend with Dodger Mom so here is
DAY ONE RECAP

OREGON STATE 7 STANFORD 3

The 3,576 in attendance at Friday night's game between No. 6 Oregon State and No. 25 Stanford at Sunken Diamond surely expected a pitcher's duel between Matt Boyd and Mark Appel, two of the better pitchers in the Pac-12 Conference this season.
Instead, what they saw was an Oregon State offense that came to life as the Beavers won 7-3 in the opener of the three-game series between the top-25 clubs.Oregon State knocked around Stanford (26-18 overall, 11-11 Pac-12) starter Mark Appel for six hits and six runs in five innings, which tied for the shortest stint of the season for the heralded right-hander. He walked a season-high five and struck out four, his second-lowest tally of the season.The main culprit in Appel's demise Friday was OSU (39-8, 18-4) sophomore Dylan Davis, who hit a soft liner past the third base bag during a five-run fifth inning that saw the Beavers push out to a three-run lead. The double cleared the bases, and marked the first of two extra-base hits for Davis, who also tripled to lead off the seventh

OREGON STATE LEADS SERIES 1-0


UCLA 10 ARIZONA 2

Behind a career-high six RBI from senior Cody Regis and 6.2 strong innings on the mound from junior Adam Plutko, the eighth-ranked UCLA Baseball team took game one of its series with Arizona by a final of 10-2 over the Wildcats.
Plutko earned his seventh win of the season by allowing just two runs on seven hits in his 6.2 innings of work. He also struck out seven while walking just one. James Farris took the loss for Arizona, giving up four runs on three hits and two walks in just four innings.The Wildcats would be the ones that jumped ahead first, getting a run in the top of the second on a single by Jordan Berger that plated Zach Gibbons. Arizona then added another run in the top of the third when Kevin Newman singled in Johnny Field to make it 2-0 Wildcats.

UCLA LEADS SERIES 1-0


CALIFORNIA 3 ARIZONA STATE 1

Behind the back drop of a brand new video scoreboard, junior designated hitter Devon Rodriguez had a clutch two-run single in the bottom of the eighth inning to help lead Cal baseball to a 3-1 victory over No. 13-ranked Arizona State Friday night at Evans Diamond.
After the Sun Devils had taken a 1-0 lead with Kasey Coffman's sacrifice fly in the seventh inning, the Golden Bears made their comeback in the eighth inning against ASU starter Trevor Williams (7.2 innings, six hits, three runs, three walks, five strikeouts). Freshman first baseman Nick Halamandaris led off the eighth with a single to left field and was advanced to second base by pinch hitter John Soteropolis' sacrifice bunt. Later in the inning, freshman outfielder Brian Celsi reached on a two-out walk by Williams and then sophomore second baseman Brenden Farney tied the game with an RBI single through the middle of the infield that scored freshman pinch runner Sean Peters.

CALIFORNIA LEADS SERIES 1-0


WASHINGTON STATE 7 USC 6

Jason Monda and Trace Tam Sing each collected three hits and Washington State edged USC 7-6 in Pac-12 Conference baseball, Friday night.
The Cougars (21-24, 8-14 Pac-12) built a 7-1 lead in support of Joe Pistorese (5-3), who pitched into the eighth inning and then held on as the Trojans (17-30, 8-14 Pac-12) rallied.USC scored a run in the first and Washington State tied the game with a tally in the third. Monda and Tam Sing singled and moved up on a sacrifice bunt by Trek Stemp. Collin Slaybaugh's RBI-ground out scored Monda.The Cougars broke through for four runs in the fifth against Trojans' starter Bob Wheatley (3-4). Patrick McGrath and Monda opened with back-to-back singles. With one out, Stemp doubled to plate both runs and give Washington State a 3-1 lead. Slaybaugh's knocked in Stemp with a single, stole second and scored on a single by P.J. Jones.In the sixth, McGrath singled, stole second and scored on Monda's single. Monda moved to second on an error, took third on a single by Tam Sing and scored on a wild pitch with two outs.USC answered with a run in the sixth and two in the eighth against Pistorese to close within 7-4. In the ninth, the Trojans added two more on two hits, a walk and two hit batters against J.D. Leckenby. Richie Ochoa came on to retire pinch hitter AJ Ramirez on a ground out with the tying and winning runs aboard to pick up his first save since 2011.


WASHINGTON STATE LEADS SERIES 1-0


UTAH 5 WASHINGTON 4 (10)

The Utah baseball team defeated Washington, 5-4, in 10 innings to open a three-game series against the Huskies on Friday evening.
Utah held a 4-0 lead before Washington tied the score at 4-4 with two runs in the eighth and ninth innings. In the top of the 10th inning, AJ Young led off the inning with a walk as a pinch hitter, and back-to-back singles from Braden Anderson and Cory Hunt sent Young across the plate for the game-winning run.Utah reliever Luke West, who entered the game with one out in the ninth inning, struck out all five of the batters that he faced. He earned the win to raise his record to 3-2 on the year.Hunt went 3-for-4 at the plate with two RBI for the Utes Konnor Armijo and Cody Scaggari each had two hits for the Utes.Utah starter Mitch Watrous pitched 7 1/3 innings, allowing two runs on eight hits and striking out five. Nick Green pitched part of the eighth inning, and Joe Pond threw one inning.

UTAH LEADS SERIES 1-0


OREGON @ OHIO STATE

Rained out will play double header today.

--
GO BEAVS!
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5/11/2013 4:09:46 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1258
borgguy wrote:
Standings after day one: ASU74 jumps out to an early lead picking several sweeps, but JCR UOsportsguy and Dodger Matt are not far behind.

In an interesting twist none of our top 4 have a chance at a perfect week, OpihiMan, YellowLabOSU, Riverduck, and WildCard85 are the only ones still with a chance to get perfection.

1)ASU74 31 6

T2)JCR 27 6
UOsportsguy 27 6
Dodger Matt 27 6

T5)OpihiMan 26 8
YellowlabOSU 26 8

7)Riverduck 26 7

8)OregonStHomer 25 7

9)Rowdy 25 6

10)WildCard85 24 8

11)Florida Beaver 24 6

T12)Borgguy 23 8
Beaverstate69 23 8
BeaverBob 23 8
OregonG20 23 8

T16)Hogfan4life 23 7
SouthernBeaver 23 7




BG, thanks for the updates.
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5/12/2013 12:05:48 AM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1258
F, I hope you are still up. Your Devils have taken the lead in the top of the 9th with a homerun.

OpihiMan wrote:
How about this ASU Cal game....ASU cranks a 3-run bomb to tie it 9-9
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5/12/2013 2:37:51 AM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1258
DM, I hope you don't ask me to get out a couple of anatomically correct Beaver dolls and role play.

Dodger Matt wrote:
Bob, what difference does it make!

edited by BeaverBob on 5/12/2013
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5/12/2013 2:42:37 AM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 990
RD would watch....just saying
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5/12/2013 2:49:17 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2082
You guys are cracking me up, tonight. Big Grin No, I was just quoting your favorite politician.
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5/12/2013 2:10:14 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2113
Just to spice things up, Everyone needs to read through the predictions before the last time the civil war was at PK. Enjoy!
http://perfectgame.org/forum/messages.aspx?TopicID=4669
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5/12/2013 2:51:13 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1258
Riverduck wrote:
Just to spice things up, Everyone needs to read through the predictions before the last time the civil war was at PK. Enjoy!
http://perfectgame.org/forum/messages.aspx?TopicID=4669



Interesting to look back at our discussion from a few years ago. While we have lost a few participants, we have several new ones.

Not much has changed in the way of banter.
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5/12/2013 3:26:07 PM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1016
BeaverBob wrote:
Riverduck wrote:
Just to spice things up, Everyone needs to read through the predictions before the last time the civil war was at PK. Enjoy!
http://perfectgame.org/forum/messages.aspx?TopicID=4669



Interesting to look back at our discussion from a few years ago. While we have lost a few participants, we have several new ones.

Not much has changed in the way of banter.


Yea you are right SOS. Dump on Ducks. Too bad we don't have a more diverse Pac community.....from 3/26 post:

The Gods of the Schedule arranged Pac War for the weekend of 5/17/13. All of the Pac will be playing their traditional/instate rivals that weekend with the lone exception of our orphan, Utah. Here is how the stars will align:

Ariz at ASU
Stanford at Cal
OSU at Ore
UCLA at USC
UW at WSU

Gentleman, tempers will be flaring, tongues will be lashing, and blood will be spilt (figurativley of course). This is the weekend of Civil Wars throughout the Pac. The mighty may fall, futures will be altered and the meek may inherit on the next to last weekend of conference play.

Baseball: ya gotta love it.

--
Go Devils !!
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5/12/2013 5:12:15 PM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1016
ASU vs Cal T9 2 out score 6-6...goes down town...BTW bases LOADED!! 10-6 devils lead

--
Go Devils !!
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5/12/2013 6:22:32 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 545
Beavs take care of business against Stanford: CW for pac title is set... beavs have a 1 game lead.
Scenarios are as follows:

OSU 2-1 beavs have a 2 game lead and tiebreaker. Ducks would need to sweep Utah and WSU sweep the Beavers.

OSU 3-0 Beavs win Pac12 title as will have 4 game lead with 3 games left

UO 2-1 Beavs and Ducks will be tied, but Ducks will have tiebreaker Ducks would need to lose 2 against Utah while OSU would need to sweep WSU.

UO 3-0 Ducks have 2 game lead and tiebreaker. OSU needs sweep of WSU and Utah to sweep Oregon.

--
GO BEAVS!
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5/12/2013 6:33:52 PM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1016
February:
How many conference victories do you think it will take to win the Pac crown this year?
http://www.perfectgame.org/Forum/messages.aspx?TopicID=9053

We were not even close.

--
Go Devils !!
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