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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 predictions: 2013 Week 10

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4/16/2013 10:48:04 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2076
We’re officially at the halfway mark in conference play. Six teams have played 15 games; the other five have played 12. We should probably pause and take a “where we at” introspective after this weekend.

This week’s games (ISR/RPI)
  • 3rd UCLA (12/23) at 2nd Ore (6/5)
  • 6th Ariz (35/72) at 4th Stan (53/120)
  • 7th WSU (85/106) at 9th Cal (86/89)
  • 8th USC (110/124) at 10th Utah (105/104)
  • 1st OSU (2/1) at 11th UW (152/142)
  • XV [Valparaiso] (221/236) at 5th ASU (10/9)
An example ballot would look like this:

Ore 2-1
Stan 2-1
WSU 2-1
Utah 3-0
OSU 3-0
XV 2-1


Week 10 Series
  • UCLA visits Eugene to take on the red-hot Ducks in the top series this week, a contest between the #3 and #2 teams. The Ducks are just percentage points behind the Beavers and even bested them in Corvallis last week in a nonconference game. They are doing it with the usual pitching and defense, but their offense has come alive recently, especially the bat of Scott Heineman. In conference-only games, the Ducks are second in batting average at .308, one point behind Stanford, and tops in runs scored. At number two in team ERA, just behind, UCLA has a pretty good one-two punch with Adam Plutko and Nick Vander Tuig on the mound, 14/100s of a run better than 3rd place Oregon. So the Ducks hold the advantage or are tied in most categories, plus they are playing at home.
  • The second best series this week has two teams that are playing well—#5t Arizona at #4 Stanford—but neither has played as well as preseason expectations. Arizona started out horribly, suffering two sweeps at the hands of the Beaver State schools, but they have righted the ship and are now tied with ASU for 5th in the conference with an 8-7 record. Stanford is a half-game ahead at 7-5, and sitting atop the conference-only batting averages. UA is third. In conference-only pitching, Arizona has a slight edge: 5th place at 3.92 vs. 6th place at 4.04.
  • Looking at the ISRs, Wazzu at Cal appears to be much closer match than the RPI suggests. My gut tells me (again) that the ISR is more accurate, as I have a hard time believing Cal is better than Wazzu. In conference-only hitting, Cal is two points higher (.265 to .263). I pitching, Wazzu’s conference ERA is better (4.54 to Cal’s conference-worst 5.68.) I’m not sure Cal even gets an edge for playing at home. In conference home games they are 1-5; Wazzu is 3-3 on the road.
  • The pairing of 8th place USC and 10th place Utah probably doesn’t get a lot of baseball fans excited, but this should be a decent series. Utah has been swept three times so far, by Arizona and OSU, and by Cal at home. But they won their other two series—on the road at Stanford and at home against Wazzu. USC has only won one series, against Cal at home, but they have not been swept yet. USC has an edge in batting, but the two teams’ pitching is even.
  • OSU visiting UW should be the blowout special but for two reasons: UW always plays the Beavers tough, no matter how bad they suck, and this year they’ve shown grittiness dwelling in the cellar. And the other reason is ASU is playing the last-place team in the Horizon League team. This is only the Huskies’ second home conference series. The first one they won, beating USC 2-1. Because OSU has played some of the better-pitching schools early, their conference batting average is not very high: 9th at .256 compared to UW’s 10th place .241. But the Beavers’ pitching is excellent: tops with a 1.68 ERA, versus UW’s 4th place 3.90.
  • It’s a wonder the Horizon League, down to five schools and as sucky a D1 conference as there is, still gets an autobid to the postseason. Valpo is last with a 13-20 overall and 4-8 conference record. (Okay, Boyd has them as #22 out of 32 conferences, so there are ten worse, but that is still pretty bad.) This should be an easy sweep, but really bad teams have come into the Copper State in the last couple years and taken one or two from the two Arizona schools the last couple years. To quote George Carlin: Hey! This could happen!
Interesting note: I unintentionally used a capital “S” instead of a capital “D” in that first sentence in the series breakdowns. Those letters are right next to each, after all. Just noticed it in time. Big Grin
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4/21/2013 12:31:54 AM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1254
I hope you were able to have a few Hammerheads or even something stronger. As Mike Parker said, it was the worst day and the 8th inn of game two was the worst innining he has seen since the Arizona blowout two years ago.

Dodger Matt wrote:
Wow. Sadness. I was in an all-day seminar and missed two horrible Beaver losses to the Fuskies. Glad I was at McMenamin's. Thanks, Borg, for filling in.
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4/19/2013 1:23:20 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1067
We're getting a fairly consistent group every week. Nice! Must be the great work of DM and borgguy
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4/20/2013 9:57:27 AM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 545
UCLA 1 Oregon 0
Behind a gem of a performance on the mound from junior Adam Plutko, the 13th-ranked UCLA Baseball team defeated the Oregon Ducks, 1-0, on Friday night at PK Park. Plutko gave up just three hits in seven scoreless innings, matching a season-high with eight strikeouts.
UCLA LEADS SERIES 1-0

STANFORD 4 ARIZONA 3

No. 21 Arizona held a 3-0 lead through four innings and had a golden chance to put itself in position to take the series opener after loading the bases in the ninth, but Stanford closer Sam Lindquist left three Wildcats stranded to preserve a 4-3 win Friday for No. 17 Stanford.

STANFORD LEADS SERIES 1-0

CAL 4 WASHINGTON STATE 2

The Cal baseball team (17-20, 6-10) received outstanding pitching from freshman right-hander Ryan Mason, sophomore second baseman Brenden Farney had a key two-run double and junior designated hitter Devon Rodriguez hit a two-run homer as the Golden Bears gave head coach David Esquer his 400th career victory with a 4-2 win over Washington State (18-17, 5-8) Friday night (April 19) at Evans Diamond

CAL LEADS SERIES 1-0

UTAH 10 USC 0

Behind a solid pitching effort from Mitch Watrous and a solid offensive performance, the Utah baseball team defeated USC, 10-0, for its first shutout of the season.Watrous pitched eight innings, striking out five and allowing five hits and three walks.At the plate, Kody Davis went 4-for-5 to lead Utah. Trey Nielsen was 3-for-5 with two RBI, while AJ Young, Tyler Relf and Konnor Armijo all had two hits for the Utes.Utah scored three runs in the third inning, two runs in the fifth and sixth innings and capped off the night with a three-run eighth inning.

UTAH LEADS SERIES 1-0

OREGON STATE AT WASHINGTON ppd. after first pitch being moved to 530 then 6 then 630 the rain refused to let up so the teams will play a Double header starting at 1pm today.

ARIZONA STATE 16 VALPARAISO 3

The ninth-ranked Arizona State University baseball team scored a season-high 16 runs and tied a season high with 19 hits en route to a 16-3 win against Valparaiso on Friday night at Packard Stadium in Tempe, Ariz.Third baseman Michael Benjamin, who went 3-for-4, and catcher Max Rossiter each drove in a season-high three runs as nine different Sun Devils (23-11-1) recorded an RBI.

ARIZONA STATE LEADS SERIES 1-0

--
GO BEAVS!
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4/20/2013 12:59:16 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1067
Thanks, borgguy, for stepping in. I was getting a little bummed at around 0300 when there was no daily synopsis. It is a highlight of my working weekend nights. Well done!
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