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College  | Story  | 5/3/2018

Field of 64: May 3

Mike Rooney     
 



RAC vs. RPI | Field of 64: May 19 | Perfect Game Top 25 | College Notebook: May 2 | College Player Database

For most of the country there are three weeks left in the regular season. That will be followed by conference tournament week and then Selection Monday. Here is an updated Field of 64 prediction/observation. As always, our focus will be on the 33 at-large bids and the 16 host sites.

Our format remains the same as before: the 31 automatic bids, followed by the 33 at-large bids followed by the 16 host sites, including the top 8 national seeds. There will also be a list of teams not selected including a few specialty categories.

Note: the number listed after each team is their RPI as of the date of this feature.


31 Automatic Bids by Conference

America East: Hartford (195)
AAC: Houston (50)
A10: Saint Louis (127)
ACC: North Carolina (4)
ASUN: Stetson (16)

Big 12: Oklahoma State (21)
Big East: St. John’s (52)
Big South: Campbell (147)
Big Ten: Michigan (57)
Big West: Fullerton (40)

CAA: Northeastern (29)
C-USA: Southern Miss (33)
Horizon: Wright State (96)
Ivy: Yale (164)
MAAC: Quinnipiac (217)

MAC: Kent State (63)
MEAC: Coppin State (283)
MVC: Missouri State (51)
MWC: Nevada (81)
NEC: Wagner (75)

OVC: Tennessee Tech (26)
Pac-12: UCLA (25)
Patriot: Navy (118)
SEC: Florida (1)
Southern: UNCG (66)

Southland: Sam Houston State (47)
SWAC: Jackson State (213)
Summit: Oral Roberts (171)
Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina (24)
WCC: Pepperdine (104)
WAC: Grand Canyon (162)

33 At-Large Bids

Teams 1-10
Stanford (1)
Texas Tech (3)
Arkansas (5)
Auburn (6)
Georgia (7)
Ole Miss (8)
Oregon State (9)
Clemson (10)
Florida State (11)
Connecticut (12)

Teams 11-20
NC State (13)
Kentucky (14)
Texas A&M (16)
East Carolina (17)
Jacksonville (19)
Indiana (22)
Duke (23)
South Florida (26)
Minnesota (29)
Texas (30)

Teams 21-33
FAU (31)
Vandy (33)
UCF (34)
Oklahoma (35)
Missouri (21)
Baylor (36)
Louisville (37)
Mississippi State (38)
Illinois (45)
Ohio State (47)
South Carolina (48)
Dallas Baptist (40)
San Diego State (46)

First 9 Left Out

Iowa (54)
LSU (55)
Troy (39)
FGCU (41)
Louisiana Tech (56)
Wichita State (18)
West Virginia (32)
Georgia Tech (52)
Purdue (57)

Need a Big Run

Arizona (59)
Creighton (51)
South Alabama (60)
Louisiana (61)
College of Charleston (62)
UNLV (64)
TCU (66)
Little Rock (68)
Bradley (71)
Washington (77)

Host Sites

Here are our 16 host sites (ranked in order per the new seeding rules) with the top 8 being our national seeds:

1. Florida
2. Stanford
3. Arkansas
4. Texas Tech
5. North Carolina
6. Oregon State
7. Georgia
8. Ole Miss

9. NC State
10. UCLA
11. Clemson
12. Florida State
13. Kentucky
14. East Carolina
15. Connecticut
16. Minnesota

Last 6 Considered to Host

Texas A&M
Coastal Carolina
Auburn
Indiana
Tennessee Tech
Oklahoma State

Observations

• The following are potential bid-stealing leagues if an underdog wins one of their respective conference tournaments: Big East, Big Ten and MVC.

•  Wichita State has a very curious case. The Shockers have a Top 20 RPI and two high profile stars in Alec Bohm and Greyson Jenista. And they are currently 5-10 in the AAC. That league record leaves them currently out.

•  Fullerton is starting to pull away in the Big West. They would be a nightmare of a 3-seed at this point.

• The Pac-12 is a three-bid league right now. That seems shockingly low for a league with three of the best teams in the country (Stanford, Oregon State and UCLA). Arizona is the league’s best shot at a fourth team with an RPI of 59, but the Wildcats’ 8-11 conference record is a problem. An 8-4 mark over their remaining 12 Pac-12 games might be just enough.

• Here is a list of teams in the phylum “In-range RPI tainted by an under-.500 league record”:
Wichita State at 5-10 in AAC
West Virginia 6-9 in Big 12
Creighton 4-7 in Big East
Georgia Tech 11-13 in ACC
Arizona 8-11 in Pac-12

• LSU has an RPI of 55 while ASUN teams Stetson (16), Jacksonville (19) and FGCU (39) all sport significantly better RPIs. All four of these teams are in the Southeast Region as per the Regional Advisory Committee system. What will the Selection Committee do if this very talented and finally healthy LSU team is ranked higher than those A-SUN teams according to the eye-ball test?

• While the clustering of teams in the middle of the SEC may lead to a record-breaking 11 Regional bids, I believe it will also lead to a low number of hosts being awarded to the league. In this projection, teams like Auburn and Texas A&M just missed being named hosts, and it boiled down to two items: fairly soft non-conference slates combined with around .500 league marks. 
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