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College  | Story  | 4/26/2018

2018 Postseason: RAC vs. RPI

Mike Rooney     
Photo: Steve Fiorindo

Field of 64: April 19

Selection Monday is just 31 days from the release of this article. While that time frame is hard to fathom, now is the time of year to do a deep dive on the selection process. The purpose of this article is to examine the Regional Advisory Committees but let’s set up the entire process while we’re here.

Most of the information referred to here can be found in the NCAA Baseball Championship Manual and here is a link to that PDF file.

The 10-member NCAA Baseball Selection Committee has several tasks:

• Select (in order) the “Top 8 National Seeds” – these teams will host both a Regional and Super Regional (if they advance).
• Seed teams Nos. 9-16 – these teams will host a Regional and be considered No. 1 seeds.
• Select the 33 teams who will receive At-Large bids – the other 31 bids go to the 31 conference champions.

The two most critical metrics at the disposal of the committee are RPI and the rankings presented by the Regional Advisory Committees (RAC). You may be thinking that there are many other metrics, and you are correct. The point is that metrics such as Strength of Schedule, record vs. Top 25 teams, etc., are all just derivatives of RPI. Even a team’s finish in their conference isn’t what it used to be since the age of super conferences and unbalanced schedules.

We will put RPI aside for this week and hone in on the Regional Advisory Committees. Here’s how it works:

• All 31 conferences are split into one of five Regions (see below).
• Each of the 10 committee members serve on two different Regional Advisory Committees (see link PDF provided above for that breakout).
• The job of each RAC is to rank the teams (in order) in their respective region with an eye on seeding and At-Large bids.
• The main purpose of these rankings is to provide the eye-ball test so as to offset an overwhelming dependency on RPI.

Here are the five Regions and the conferences included in each:

East: America East, MAAC, Patriot, CAA, Ivy, ACC, Atlantic 10, NEC
Midwest: Big Ten, Summit, Horizon, MAC, MVC, Big East
South: Southland, Big 12, SWAC, Conference USA, OVC, Sun Belt
Southeast: MEAC, Atlantic Sun, AAC, Southern, SEC, Big South
West: WAC, WCC, Big West, Mountain West, Pac-12

For this week, let’s take a look at each of the five Regions and we’ll pick an example whereby we believe the RPI and RAC ranking will tell very different stories.

East 
By RPI, Northeastern (19) is currently the fifth-ranked team in the East Region. Louisville (41) is the seventh-ranked team in the East by RPI. We believe the RAC will rank Louisville ahead of Northeastern, possibly by a significant margin. While this should not preclude Northeastern from earning an at-large bid, this is good news for Louisville should the Cardinals end up on the bubble.

Midwest
Indiana sits at 26 in the RPI while Minnesota sits at 40. Despite this rather wide margin in RPI, it appears that these two clubs will be ranked first and second by the RAC in the Midwest Region. And while their RPIs are far from the typical hosting range, there is still hope for both clubs. If one of these teams wins the Big Ten, which is currently being led by a Michigan team whose schedule is about to get infinitely more difficult, then that would most likely also secure them the No. 1 ranking by the Midwest Region RAC. The combination of that ranking and a Big Ten Championship could (and should) trump an atypical hosting RPI number.

South
With an RPI of 76, TCU is currently ranked 18th in the South region by that metric. Despite the season-ending injury to Luken Baker, there is still no question that TCU passes the eye test, especially on the mound. It is quite possible that TCU’s talented roster could earn them a RAC ranking within the top 10 of the South region. That said, this weekend’s series with Texas Tech has a sink-or-swim feel to it.

Southeast
This region’s Regional Advisory Committee should be paid time and a half. The Atlantic Sun has three teams with legitimate at-large resumes, the SEC has 11 such teams, and the AAC has at least five if not six. Because of the relative strength of this region, LSU (57) would be the No. 19 team by RPI and Houston (83) would be ranked No. 24. We believe both clubs will be rated significantly higher by the eye test standard.

LSU has played most of this season without Josh Smith, who is arguably the best shortstop in the SEC. Smith finally made his return this week. Houston leads the AAC with a 10-5 league record, and Joe Davis and Trey Cumbie give the Cougars star power, which tends to be helpful in regards to the RAC rankings. However, if both clubs maintain RPIs in their current area, there won’t be a RAC ranking high enough to save them.

West
Stanford is currently the No. 1 RPI team nationally and Oregon State comes in at No. 4. The interesting team in the West, though, would be the UCLA Bruins. UCLA has a current RPI of 30 and that is significantly out of hosting range. That said, the Bruins have overcome injuries to weekend arms Jon Olsen and Kyle Molnar, not to mention hitters Jeremy Ydens and Garrett Mitchell who have missed time as well. Despite that, this club currently leads the Pac-12 and they already have a series win over Stanford.

If UCLA were to win the Pac-12, or finish second even, they will be ranked No. 3 or better by the West Region RAC. In fact, they may even be ranked No. 2 ahead of the Beavers or Cardinal. A strong finish in conference plus a strong RAC ranking should make UCLA a host. Prediction: UCLA will be the 2018 host with the weakest RPI. 
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