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PREMIUM ANALYSIS: Breaking down the projections
Conference tournaments don't always mean much at the end of the regular season. But this season, who performs well in various tournaments could determine who gets a national seed, NCAA Regional host or postseason bid.
Virginia was the top overall national seed in last week's projections, but after dropping a series at North Carolina, the Cavaliers are back in familiar territory behind South Carolina. The Gamecocks have an RPI of 6 with a 44-12 record and are 12-6 vs. RPI Top 25, 18-9 vs. RPI Top 50 and 24-10 vs. RPI Top 100.
Other national seeds this week include (in order), Virginia, Florida, Texas, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Rice and Arizona State. Other teams considered for national seeds include Georgia Tech, Florida State, Texas A&M and Oregon State.
Virginia has an RPI of 2 and is 9-6 vs. RPI Top 25, 15-8 vs. RPI Top 50 and 21-8 vs. RPI Top 100, Florida has an RPI of 3 and is 15-12 vs. RPI Top 25, 22-13 vs. RPI Top 50 and 29-14 vs. RPI Top 100, Texas has an RPI of 13 and is 4-2 vs. RPI Top 25, 16-7 vs. RPI Top 50 and 27-11 vs. RPI Top 100, Vanderbilt has an RPI of 5 and is 11-7 vs. RPI Top 25, 19-8 vs. RPI Top 50 and 23-8 vs. RPI Top 100, North Carolina is 11-5 vs. RPI Top 25, 15-8 vs. RPI Top 50 and 31-12 vs. RPI Top 100, Rice has an RPI of 10 and is 5-3 vs. RPI Top 25, 12-9 vs. RPI Top 50 and 28-17 vs. RPI Top 100 and Arizona State has an RPI of 8 and is 3-4 vs. RPI Top 25, 14-7 vs. RPI Top 50 and 25-10 vs. RPI Top 100.
In addition to the national seeds, other NCAA Regional hosts include Georgia Tech, Florida State, Cal State Fullerton, Texas A&M, TCU, Southern Mississippi, Oregon State and Arkansas. Other programs considered for host sites include Clemson, Oklahoma, Stetson and Miami in that order.
PG's NCAA postseason projections are released every week leading up to Selection Monday, which is Monday, May 30.
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COLUMBIA REGIONAL
Host: South Carolina
1. South Carolina* (1)
4. Manhattan*
2. Fla. International
3. N.C. State
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HATTIESBURG REGIONAL
Host: Southern Mississippi
1. Southern Miss
4. Alcorn State*
2. Clemson
3. SE Louisiana
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C'VILLE REGIONAL
Host: Virginia
1. Virginia* (2)
4. Navy*
2. Connecticut*
3. Alabama
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FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL
Host: Arkansas
1. Arkansas
4. Oral Roberts*
2. Oklahoma State
3. Creighton*
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GAINESVILLE REGIONAL
Host: Florida
1. Florida (3)
4. Princeton*
2. Stetson*
3. Florida Atlantic
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ATLANTA REGIONAL
Host: Georgia Tech
1. Georgia Tech
4. James Madison*
2. Troy*
3. Auburn
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AUSTIN REGIONAL
Host: Texas
1. Texas* (4)
4. Sacred Heart*
2. Mississippi State
3. Texas State*
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FULLERTON REGIONAL
Host: Cal State Fullerton
1. Cal State Fullerton*
4. Hawaii*
2. UCLA
3. Kansas State
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NASHVILLE REGIONAL
Host: Vanderbilt
1. Vanderbilt (5)
4. Austin Peay*
2. Miami
3. Mercer
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CORVALLIS REGIONAL
Host: Oregon State
1. Oregon State*
4. Gonzaga*
2. Fresno State
3. Kent State*
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CHAPEL HILL REGIONAL
Host: North Carolina
1. North Carolina (6)
4. Charlotte*
2. East Carolina
3. Elon*
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FORT WORTH REGIONAL
Host: Texas Christian
1. TCU*
4. Coastal Carolina*
2. Stanford
3. Dallas Baptist
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HOUSTON REGIONAL
Host: Rice
1. Rice* (7)
4. Wright State*
2. Baylor
3. Arizona
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COLLEGE STATION REGIONAL
Host: Texas A&M
1. Texas A&M
4. Illinois*
2. California
3. LSU
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TEMPE REGIONAL
Host: Arizona State
1. Arizona State (8)
4. Stony Brook*
2. Oklahoma
3. UC Irvine
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TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL
Host: Florida State
1. Florida State
4. Bethune-Cookman*
2. Central Florida
3. Jacksonville
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Last six: LSU, Dallas Baptist, Southeastern Louisiana, Kansas State, Florida Atlantic, Mercer
Next 10: Mississippi, East Tennessee State, Texas Tech, Cal State Bakersfield, St. John's, Illinois State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Tulane, College of Charleston, Missouri State
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Projected national seeds in parentheses.
*—Projected winner of an automatic bid.
Possible super regional matchups are listed side-by-side
| Stony Brook |
Charlotte |
| Virginia |
Stetson |
| Connecticut |
Coastal Carolina |
Illinois
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Texas
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Cal State Fullerton
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James Madison
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| Rice |
Wright State
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Princeton
|
Manhattan |
| Kent State |
Bethune-Cookman |
| Creighton |
TCU |
Sacred Heart
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Austin Peay |
| Oregon State |
Navy |
South Carolina
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Elon |
Texas State
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Oral Roberts
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| Troy |
Alcorn State
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Hawaii
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Gonzaga |