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Dodger Matt - all messages by user

5/16/2011 7:03:20 PM
TRANSCRIPT: Kendall Rogers' weekly chat (5/16)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Matt, I personally would agree with you that the Pac-10 is better than CUSA this year, but not by as much as you might think.

You argue that every year, Walt. And every year you're wrong. I don’t mind if you want to compare the CUSA to the Big West or even the Big XII, but your comparisons to the Pac-10 are ludicrous. Always have been. And I can’t foresee a single season--although it may yet come one day--that that might change.

No question the Pac-10 has more bottom-feeders this year than C-USA, and I don't think that's really debatable.

You don't? Cool, let's debate. Here are two excellent ranking systems followed by the rAT’S Patootie Index. Color-coded so you can easily see which conference fills the bottom with its feeders. I’m seeing more blue down there than ‘bout you? Even the ridiculous RPI doesn't bear you out.


04 Oregon St PAC
07 Arizona St PAC
16 Stanford PAC
17 California PAC
18 Rice CUSA
23 Southern Miss CUSA
26 Arizona PAC
34 East Carolina CUSA
38 Oregon PAC
51 Washington St PAC
70 Tulane CUSA
77 Houston CUSA
115 Memphis CUSA
169 Washington PAC
242 Marshall CUSA


07 Arizona State PAC
08 Oregon State PAC
16 Stanford PAC
17 Southern Mississippi CUSA
18 California PAC
19 Rice CUSA
26 Arizona PAC
30 Central Florida CUSA
35 East Carolina CUSA
48 Oregon PAC
54 Washington State PAC
69 Tulane CUSA
72 Houston CUSA
73 Southern California PAC
87 Alabama-Birmingham CUSA
94 Memphis CUSA
166 Washington PAC
193 Marshall CUSA

Rat’s Patootie Index

07 Arizona State PAC
12 Rice CUSA
16 Southern Mississippi CUSA
20 Oregon State PAC
22 Central Florida CUSA
23 Stanford PAC
30 Arizona PAC
32 East Carolina CUSA
33 California PAC
42 Washington State PAC
44 Houston CUSA
62 Tulane CUSA
64 Alabama-Birmingham CUSA
84 Oregon PAC
105 Southern California PAC
108 Memphis CUSA
189 Marshall CUSA
200 Washington PAC

As for the rest of your diatribe, no arguments, except for this....

Where I disagree strongly with Kendall ...blah, blah, blah... for regional host births.

This is one of those things you should probably be told about now. It’s almost like caliber (US English) vs. calibre (Canadian English). Except that birth is what mothers give, and a berth is what the NCAA committee gives.
5/16/2011 7:10:48 PM
National Seeds after this weekend's losses

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Shoeless, you have to forget conference divisions; they are meaningless. If the SEC East has three top eight teams, there is no reason all three should not be national seeds. I can see Florida, Vandy, and SoCar getting them, and I would not be upset by that either.

SMiss? Yeah, right, I don't think so either. But a #1, fine.

As for FSU, GTech, and UNC, too much baseball to be played between them for me to decide. But my guess is two of them make it.
5/16/2011 9:03:20 PM
TRANSCRIPT: Kendall Rogers' weekly chat (5/16)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
MiamiBaseball: People are discussing post-season bids. As much as you hate to admit it, post-season bids revolve around the RPI.

And yet a couple of teams that are not in the RPI top eight are apparently "locks" for national seeds. How is that? It's unfortunate that the RPI is used at all, but I wouldn't call it revolutionary or central. Exorbital, perhaps.

As to your earlier post, "using the ISR to promote the west" is NOT "just as bad as using the RPI to promote the east" because the ISR does not "promote the west". The RPI does "promote the east"; but good teams from the east are recognized as such in the ISR, and that rarely comes through in the RPI.
5/16/2011 9:39:17 PM
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Day four

Arizona 6, Washington State 4: Wazzu owned this game for the first six innings, leading the Wildcats by a score of 4-0. But Arizona burst forth with five hits and five unanswered runs (all earned) against starter James Wise in the 7th, highlighted by Johnny Field’s two-out triple. Taylor Ard (2 for 4, 2 RBIs, 1 HR) led the Cougars; Field (1 for 4, 2 RBIs) and Bryce Ortega (3 for 4, 1 RBI) led the Cats. UA’s Bryce Bandilla went 3.1 IP for the win. Wise took the loss.

Arizona wins series, 2-1.
5/16/2011 9:50:50 PM
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
  • 16 opihi man
  • 15 BeaverBob
  • 15 MostUnknown
  • 14 ASU74
  • 14 BeaverBeliever20
  • 14 borgguy
  • 14 Dodger Matt
  • 14 Florida Beaver
  • 14 SouthCoastStu
  • 14 YellowlabOSU
  • 13 BballJones
  • 13 cas77
  • 13 CaughtBySparky
  • 13 CdinSV
  • 13 OregonStateChris
  • 12 rec1347
  • 12 SouthernBeaver
  • 12 WildCard85
Score analysis:
  • The winner this week (opihi man) only got two series right.
  • Tied for second, MostUnknown go three series right (most).
  • Highest average score: Ariz over WSU: 3.67. 14/18 got that one right.
  • Next highest, 9/18 correctly picked UCLA 2-1.
  • Lowest average: USC over ASU 1.33. Nobody got that right; only 6/18 got within one of getting that right.
  • Also low in average score, Ore over Stan: 1.94. 2/18 got that right.
  • Only 3/18 picked OSU 2-1.
5/16/2011 10:05:10 PM
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Total average for the season

Here are the running totals. That is weeks you've participated, total points, average, your name, and your team (AFAIK). The split is between those with 5 or more weeks and those in the 3 to 4 range. To compete for the full glory, you will need at least 60%, so those of you with 4 weeks cannot miss the last two.

wks ttl avg name team
5 87.7 17.53 BeaverBeliever20 OSU
5 87.5 17.50 MostUnknown UCLA
5 86.5 17.30 SouthCoastStu OSU
6 102.5 17.08 SouthernBeaver OSU
7 118.0 16.86 BeaverBob OSU
6 100.8 16.81 opihi man OSU
6 16.4 16.42 OregonStateChris OSU
8 130.9 16.36 Dodger Matt OSU
8 128.0 15.99 Florida Beaver OSU
6 95.5 15.92 CaughtBySparky ASU
8 126.8 15.85 ASU74 ASU
8 126.5 15.82 cas77 ASU
5 75.3 15.07 2Bulldogs NA
7 98.0 14.00 WildCard85 Stan

4 70.7 17.67 rec1347 NA
3 51.7 17.22 YellowlabOSU OSU
4 64.2 16.04 borgguy OSU
3 48.0 16.00 BballJones OSU
4 55.0 13.75 CdinSV NA
3 34.8 11.61 RiverDuck Ore
5/17/2011 8:05:50 PM
Latest RPI rankings

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Well, RPI 18 Miami just lost to RPI 56 FlAtlantic. By tomorrow, both schools' RPIs should be in the low 20s, just ahead of Oregon State.
5/17/2011 11:16:28 PM
Ducks and the post season

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Riverduck, I hate to throw cold water on you, but...well it'll run off your back anyway, so here goes. Ducks are done. Been done for a couple weeks. Beating Stanford made Duck fans believe there was a chance again, but...better luck next year. Sweeping Wazzu and OSU would not even put the Ducks above .500 in conference play. Not that either sweep will happen. And all you're doing by defeating the Zags is lowering their chances. (But they'd only end up in the Corvallis regional, so death either way.)

Your role now is spoiler. Can't really spoil Wazzu's season. (Well, they still have a faint glimmer of hope, so yeah, I guess you could spoil theirs.) But the best Duck fans can hope for now is bragging rights in the Civil War series at PK Park. And knocking the Beavs out of national seed standing.

Oh yeah, almost forgot: Santa Claus died a few years back too. Sorry to break all of this to you at once. Are your dancing shoes polished?
5/18/2011 8:00:52 AM
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/18

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Kendall wrote:
BeaverBeliever20 wrote:
Just wondering Kendall, why did you drop Oregon State from a #4 national seed to a #8 national seed after they won yet another Pac-10 series?

Only one reason at all: Beavers now have an RPI of 20. That's stretching it from a national seed standpoint, so they pretty much had to be the last national seed on the list.

Even if the Beavers kill USC and Oregon, the way the RPI works, we'll probably drop even lower than 20. What happens with national seeding then? How many people on the selection committee realize that the Rat's Patootie Index is so stupid and are willing to disregard it?
5/18/2011 10:35:05 AM
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/18

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
MiamiBaseball wrote:
You have to start by understanding that teams will drop after some wins in ANY rating system. If Virginia plays and defeats Portland, Virginia's ISR will be reduced. If anyone in the top 100 plays and defeats Hartford, that team's ISR will fall. I can't understand why you people still think that concept is unique to the RPI.

Bottom Story of the Day: Condescension from a Miami fan.
5/18/2011 5:54:25 PM
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/18

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
MiamiBaseball wrote:
Dodger Matt wrote:
MiamiBaseball wrote:
You have to start by understanding that teams will drop after some wins in ANY rating system. If Virginia plays and defeats Portland, Virginia's ISR will be reduced. If anyone in the top 100 plays and defeats Hartford, that team's ISR will fall. I can't understand why you people still think that concept is unique to the RPI.

Bottom Story of the Day: Condescension from a Miami fan.

You can make it about me if you want, but please tell me that you learned something about rating systems in the process.

Not really. I've been around long enough to know how they both work, so thanks for the primer, but it was nothing new. The ISR is still more accurate because it doesn't stop at opponents' opponents' winning percentages. Every once in a while, the disparities between the two systems become very pronounced with a few teams. This year it happens to be my team, and I rant.
5/18/2011 6:00:28 PM
Don't take UCLA to lightly

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
My guess is they stick them with Fullerton. Neither has played to potential this year, and it would serve as a rite of passage for one to beat the other to advance. Plus, history.
5/18/2011 8:15:21 PM
Pac-10: Week 14 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Penultimate weekend of conference play, and we have several competitive series matchups. Rankings this week are taken from Massey. This week’s games:
  • 17 Cal at 22 UCLA
  • 26 Ariz at 16 Stan
  • 66 USC at 4 OSU
  • 38 Ore at 51 WSU
  • 7 ASU at 169 UW

  • Cal and UCLA are battling for 2nd/3rd place, and both still have an outside chance at the championship. But one will almost certainly fall out of contention this weekend. And whoever survives will still have to face Stanford (cal) or Arizona State (UCLA) the following week, so it won't get much easier.
  • At 11-10 in conference, Arizona takes on Stanford (10-11) in what looks like a battle of mediocre teams, but these two foes are equally matched and much better than their conference records make them appear. Depending on how Cal fares in Westwood, one of these teams could take a step forward as the new 4th place team.
  • USC has shown steady progress over the year, culminating in their best (yet) weekend against #7 ASU, taking 2 of three. The Beavers are pretty good at home, however, and Dodger Matt and daughter will be there rooting for them Friday night (thanks to BeaverBob), so expect Gaviglio to own the Trojans.
  • What a disappointment both of these teams have been to themselves and their fans. Neither likely has a shot to make the postseason, though both could do some damage if they got a shot at it. Expect this series to be the dying throes for one or both programs this season.
  • Could this be a trap? Washington is clearly the conference's RPI leper, and ASU just got bested by the Trojans, another overlooked squad. But can the Huskies take one from ASU and ruin their national seed hopes? Will simply playing UW drop ASU's RPI to Miami's level?

Note on scoring and strategy: Anyone currently in the 16-point average range will probably need to score in the 20s this week and next to overcome the current leader (assuming the leaders do no better than current averages). That means at minimum you will need to pick all five series at 2-1 margins or get one or two sweeps if you miss any series. So place your bets carefully...

Or swing for the fences. What have you got to lose?

A sample poll would look like this:

UCLA 2-1
Stan 2-1
OSU 2-1
Ore 3-0
UW 2-1
5/18/2011 8:28:24 PM
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/18

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
No thanks, Teach-- I mean Coach. Done with homework.
Didn't think there could be that many Miami fans like you.

5/19/2011 7:09:46 PM
Pac-10: Week 14 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I've never seen so many beaver jokes from Oregon State fans at one time before. Gotta hit a bunch of comments at once....

MostUnknown: Playing it somewhat safe. The question is, will these picks get me above Beaver after this week.
You need to realize that with so many Oregon State fans on this board, that either way you're gonna be on top of or below beaver, so you might as well just get used to it and enjoy it. Of course, everyone wants to be on top. We'll see if playing it safe gets you there.

ASU74: DM, Has Kendall offered you a job yet?
Ha, no. I antagonize too many people (see other threads). But Kendall is a decent guy, and if my activity here brings him some increased (albeit meagerly so) measure of financial security, then that would be good enough for me.

Riverduck: help- my account got hacked.
Look at this guy. Actually voted for an Oregon State win. Either his account did get hacked or he wants to get out of the cellar. Gotta love even Duck fans who aspire to improve themselves. Although, looking at the rest of your picks River, I'd give you at best a B- grade. In fact, after voting for the Beavers to win, I think we should call you henceforth: Biverduck.

BeaverBob: I've been thinking about changing my name to Oregon Beaver or Northern Beaver.
What! Nobody would recognize you! At the dinner table, when I mention things like, "I'm going to the game Friday, thanks to Northern Beaver," everyone in my family would look at me and ask, "Who the hell is Northern Beaver?"

BeaverBob: I'm just glad you didn't mention my flatuence problem to DM. Now, my excuse about the fowl (whoops, my spelling is bad) foul wind blowing from Eugene won't fly.
Ummm. How close are our seats?

FloridaBeaver:A southern beaver has more hair because it can get cold in the south.
I'm not even gonna comment on that.

OpihiMan wrote:
DM, enjoy the game with BeaverBob...I went with him to one of the Cal games, very nice guy I had a great time.
Yes, and I look forward to putting a face to a name as well. I'll just have to put Dodger Mandi on the other side of him, I guess, so there are no complaints about the fowlness. ;-)
(Please, no puns about fowl balls.)
5/19/2011 7:38:23 PM
Don't take UCLA to lightly

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
NolesFanJosh wrote:
Would the committee then in turn make that a "Regional of Death" by sending say, Hawai'i there (they very well could win WAC Tourney) since there aren't going to be many West hosts,..perhaps even have UCLA as a 3 and put Fresno State in there...that would be by far, the "R.O.D." and definitely be picked up by ESPN for National broadcasting.

Josh, I would not be surprised. Even Kendall's projections have Gonzaga as the Corvallis #4 (with Fresno as the #2) and Hawaii as the CSUF #4 (with UCLA as #2). Western hosts rarely get #4 teams like Alcorn State or Stony Brook.
5/20/2011 7:19:02 AM
Pac-10: Week 14 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
UCLA 2-1
Ariz 2-1
OSU 3-0
WSU 2-1
ASU 3-0

BB20, I had already logged your votes, so I know it was there. Odd....
5/20/2011 11:07:16 AM
Pac-10: Week 14 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Pick analysis:

ASU over UW is the top vote-getter: 18/0 pick ASU with 14 sweeps.
OSU over USC comes in second: 18/0 OSU with 9 sweeps.
Stanford has a 16/2 edge over Arizona with 1 sweep.
UCLA is favored 15/3 over Cal with 2 sweeps.
And in the most perfectly even assessment of the season, Oregon and Wazzu are tied 9/9 with no sweep predicted for either team.

Anyone going to Goss Stadium tonight?
5/21/2011 10:37:43 AM
Pac-10: Week 14 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Sorry for the delay. I got home late, and I'm fighting a cold.

Day one

Cal 4, UCLA 0: Powered by outstanding pitching from junior righthander Erik Johnson (6-2) and a clutch three-run pinch-hit double from freshman Andrew Knapp in the 8th, the No. 25-ranked Cal baseball shut out No. 17 UCLA, 4-0. Gerrit Cole (5-7) took the loss, going 7.0 IP and allowing only one run on six hits. The Bears limited the Bruins to 3 hits. Arizona had a chance to take the lead in the eighth against the Stanford righthander. Appel put two runners on with one out, only to force Arizona into an inning ending double play.

Cal leads series, 1-0.

Stanford 1, Arizona 0 (11 innings): Freshman Brett Michael Doran's two-out single off the left field wall gave No. 25-ranked Stanford a 1-0, 11th inning victory over No. 27-ranked Arizona. Bryce Bandilla (4-2) took the loss, loading the bases with two outs with a walk, hit by pitch and another walk, before reliever Matt Chafee came on to face the freshman. The starters did not figure in the decision. Mark Appel went 8.0 IP, 6 hits, 9 Ks. Kurt Heyer went 9.0 IP, with 4 hits, and 10 Ks. Arizona came in batting .326, to lead the Pac-10, Stanford was hitting .306, second-best in the conference, yet the two teams combined for 11 hits total over 11 innings.

Stanford leads series, 1-0.

Oregon State 7, USC 2: The Trojans got on the board first, scoring single runs in the 2nd and 3rd. THe Beavers tied it in the 2nd and took a 3-2 led in the 3rd that they never relinquished. Jared Norris was a double shy of hitting OSU’s third cycle ever, having homered, tripled, singled, and being walked on four straight balls in his last appearance. He was also on deck when Carter Bell hit a long fly to center-right that might have gotten down for an extra-base hit but ended up in Alex Sherrod's glove as the third out. Brian Stamps also connected for a homer, an 0-2 three-run blast to left field that provided the final score. Sam Gaviglio improved to 11-1 on the season.

Oregon State leads series, 1-0.

Washington State 12, Oregon 6: Washington State collected a dozen hits, including seven doubles, and the Cougars overcame a five-run deficit to defeat Oregon 12-6. The Ducks scored one in the 1st then four in the 2nd to jump out to a 5-0 lead against Adam Conley (6-6), making his final home start. Wazzu closed the gap with three in the 3rd, then scored five in the 5th to take the lead 8-6. The Cougars put the game away with four insurance runs in the bottom of the 8th. Tyler Anderson (7-3) took the loss for Oregon. With the victory, Washington State (23-25, 7-15 Pacific-10) pulled even with Oregon (28-25-1, 7-15 Pac-10) in the Pac-10 standings and kept their dim postseason hopes alive.

Wazzu leads series, 1-0.

Arizona State 6, Washington 0: Brady Rodgers (8-3) scattered five hits and struck out nine, throwing his first career complete game shutout. The Devils offense exploded in the top of the third inning, plating five runs, all with two outs. Johnny Ruettiger led the Devils, going 3 for 5 with 1 RBI.

Arizona State leads series, 1-0.
5/21/2011 10:20:53 PM
Pac-10: Week 14 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Day two

UCLA 2, Cal 1: Trevor Bauer (11-2) pitched yet another complete game, his seventh consecutive and eighth of the season, giving up 5 hits and one run while striking out eight and walking one. The lone run against the Bruins came on Chad Bunting’s leadoff homer in the 5th. California stranded the potential tying run at second base in the 9th. Tony Renda led off with a single and moved to second on a sacrifice bunt. Bauer struck out Chad Bunting on a full count before inducing a hard groundball off the bat of Devon Rodriguez. The grounder was stopped at first base by Dean Espy and picked up by second baseman Trevor Brown, who flipped the ball to Bauer covering first base to end the game. Bauer is now in fourth place on the Pac-10 Conference's single-season strikeouts list with 175.

Series tied, 1-1.

Arizona 7, Stanford 3: Stuck in a slump of 15 innings without scoring a run against the Cardinal, Arizona scored seven runs over a four-inning stretch to take the game. Alex Mejia went 3 for 4 with 1 RBI for the Cats and is on a 13-game hitting streak. Kyle Simon (10-3) earned the win with 7.1 IP, 8 hits, 3 ERs, 4 Ks.

Series tied, 1-1.

USC 8, Oregon State 3: The Trojans scored all eight of their runs in the 1st inning, sending 11 men to the plate and knocking freshman starter Ben Wetzler (6-3) out after getting only one out. Wetzler was victim to some shoddy infield play that might have gotten him out of the inning earlier. With runners at the corners, a ground ball to Kavin Keyes that should have been a double-play ended up yielding no outs and a run scored, then Dylan Jones committed a fielding error that also could have resulted in a DP, but which scored another run. Alex Sherrod tried to sac bunt, which Wetzler decided to let roll foul...except that it didn’t. With bases loaded, Matt Foat hit a 2-run double, then James Roberts hit an RBi single. After Wetzler struck out Kevin Swick for his first and only out, James Nygren came in to get out of the inning. But the Trojans hit another intended sac bunt for a run-scoring single. After a successful sacrifice bunt (in which the Beavers got thee runner out at first), and runners again at the corners, Nygren gave up a 2-run single to Adam Landecker. Landecker was then thrown out at second trying to steal by a nonchalant Parker Berberet, who didn’t deign to get out of the crouch to nail the would-be thief. But by then it was over. Nygren pitched seven shutout innings after that, and Adam Duke pitched a scoreless 9th, but the Beavers couldn’t get enough offense to climb back. They scored two in the 4th on four singles, and one in the 9th. They also left 9 men on base. Niceville’s Austin Wood went eight full innings to improve to 5-6 this season.

Series tied, 1-1.

Oregon 6, Washington State 3: The Ducks broke a 3-3 tie in the 7th, scoring two runs on Brett Thomas’s double and Ryon Healy’s single, to take a 5-3 lead. They tacked on another run in the 9th to even the series with the Cougs. Sophomore Christian Jones (6-2) pitched eight full innings for the win. Oregon’s JJ Altobelli led the Ducks at the plate with a 3 for 4 performance, 2 RBIs, and a stolen base. Taylor Ard went 2 for 4 for the Cougs, and his 2 RBIs pushed him into the Pac-10 RBI lead at 49 on the season.

Series tied, 1-1.

Arizona State 12, Washington 0: Olympia, Washington native Kramer Champlin (8-2) pitched his second complete game shutout of the season in front of his family and friends at Husky Ballpark. Champlin struck out seven and scattered six hits over his nine innings. Johnny Ruettiger once again led the Devils, going 2 for 6 with 4 RBIs. Abe Ruiz made the most of his one plate appearance, a pinch hit two-run homer. The Devils had 15 hits today, and have outscored the Huskies 18-0 in the first two games. Arizona State is now (again) one game back of Oregon State.

Arizona State leads series, 2-0.
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