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Dodger Matt - all messages by user

5/12/2011 3:31:21 PM
Topic:
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/12

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Kendall wrote:
borgguy wrote:
have one like and one dislike, i like that we get Fresno state in our regional a chance to show that the two losses in the beginnning of the season were flukes

the thing i dont like and this is more the NCAA than it is you guys is that even though 6 pac 10 teams woudl be in the tourney no more than 3 would be able to reach the CWS due to the super regional matchups
oregon st could potentially play UCLA and arizona state could potentially play stanford, the only one who doesnt have a pac10 team in the coresponding super regional is CAL


Yeah, I'm not a fan of doing that with my pairings, but the NCAA loves "regionalizing" the West Coast and other areas, so don't be surprised if that's the reality of the situation here in a month.


Seconding the borg's comments and augmenting with a similar query vis-a-vis the WAC teams. You have both Fresno State and Hawaii with autobid asterisks after their names. I assume you expect Hawaii to win the autobid and Fresno to get an atlarge? And would the committee be so cruel as to pair the only two teams from a conference like that? I can understand doing it to the Pac-10...happens all the time. But the WAC? I don't see Rice paired with ECU or Fullerton with Irvine.
5/12/2011 5:20:37 PM
Topic:
CHAT TRANSCRIPT: Check it out (5/9)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
weg313 wrote:
Money no longer buys a host birth.


In the world of surrogate maternity, unless you find some woman who just loves being indisposed for nine months for altruitic reasons, I think money is the only way.
5/12/2011 7:22:50 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Ariz 2-1
Stan 2-1
ASU 2-1
OSU 3-0
UCLA 3-0

Borg, I just realized you and I have the same picks. And I have to concur with all of your comments. I'd like to see Wazzu do it, but they've disappointed me too many weeks in a row. INCLUDING the one when I wanted them to get swept and they didn't.
edited by Dodger Matt on 5/12/2011
5/13/2011 2:05:55 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Was hoping to get a few more votes before posting this, but I'm bored and tired of waiting. Here's your pick analysis:
  • Oregon State, Arizona State, and UCLA are unanimous 18/0 picks to win.
  • OSU earned 15 sweeps, ASU 12 sweeps, UCLA 9 sweeps.
  • Stanford and Arizona are 16/2 favorites to win.
  • Stanford earned 5 sweeps; Arizona earned 2 sweeps.
  • Nobody voted for Cal this week.
  • We had 11 Beaver voters, 3 Devils, 1 Cardinal, 1 Bruin, 1 Roadrunner, and 1 unknown.
  • No Ducks voted in this week's predictions.
  • We have had no Wazzu, Arizona, or UW fans this year.
  • We are in the middle of the third straight year that nobody has even sighted a Cal fan. Not even a whiff of a Cal fan has been detected, and some of them can be smelled from quite a distance. Maybe we should start calling them the Golden Sasquatches, not just because some of their pitchers have as much hair as a sasquatch, but because their fans are so rare.
  • Last year we had a slight plurality of Devils, so this year marks a decided drop in Devil participation.
5/13/2011 8:45:36 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
BeaverBob wrote:
What's up with the the Beavers starting Osich instead of Gaviglio?


Bob, Casey said on the pregame that they had intended to give him the extra day of rest this week a while back, then when they played a DH last Saturday, that made the decision easier for them. To top it off, Safeco is bigger than Husky Ballpark, which Casey called a bandbox, and Sammy's grounder-inducing pitching is better in that kind of environment.
5/14/2011 12:22:49 AM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Day one

Oregon 6, Stanford 2: Oregon took a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the first as two hits and two Stanford errors plated two runs for the Ducks. Stanford scored one in the third on a passed ball. Down 5-1, the Cardinal scored again in the 8th on an RBI single by Tyler Gaffney. Tyler Anderson (8-2) held Stanford to one unearned run on four hits and four walks. Oregon’s Danny Pulfer (3 for 5), Kyle Garlick (3 for 4) and KC Serna (3 for 4) combined to go 9 for 13 with three doubles, four RBIs, and four runs scored.

Oregon leads series, 1-0.

USC 5, Arizona State 1: The Sun Devils scored an unearned run in the first thanks to two USC errors, and that’s the only lead they had in this game. USC scored three in the bottom of the 1st, and two in the 2nd for the entirety of the scoring in the game. Adam Landecker had three hits from the Trojans while James Roberts and Joe De Pinto had two hits apiece. USC’s Andrew Triggs (4-3) threw his third complete game of the season, striking out 6, walking two, and giving up 7 hits. Triggs has a 1.11 ERA in his last four Pac-10 starts.

USC leads series, 1-0.

Oregon State 6, Washington 4: The Beavers improved their record at Safeco Field to 2-1. The Beavers scored two in the 4th to overcame a 1-0 Washington lead, but the Huskies scored three in their half on B.K. Santy’s lead off solo home run and two doubles, which chased Josh Osich. James Nygren yielded a walk, another double, and an IBB before being replaced by Scott Schultz (3-0), who eventually earned the win with 2.2 IP, allowing just one hit while striking out two. Down 4-2 in the 5th, the Beavers plated three more. Michael Miller hit a one-out double, Brian Stamps reached first on a strikeout, and Ryan Barnes tripled them in. Kavin Keyes then doubled Barnes in. Barnes also doubled in the 9th and was batted in again by Keyes, on a sac fly. Ryan Barnes went 4 for 5 with two doubles and a triple, and Kavin Keyes drove in three runs. Tony Bryant pitched the 9th for his 10th save of the season. Double-header scheduled for Saturday because of expected bad weather in Seattle Sunday.

Oregon State leads series, 1-0.

CS Bakersfield 5, UCLA 1: Mike McCarthy, a senior from Brentwood, California, right down the road from the UCLA campus, tossed a complete game two-hitter as Roadrunners defeated UCLA 5-1 Friday night at Jackie Robinson Stadium. The 6-3 righthander struck out seven and walked only one batter. Freshman shortstop Tyler Shryock hit his first career home run to open the second inning for a 3-0 CSUB advantage. Jeremey Rodriguez drove in the first of his two runs later in third. Rodriguez made it 5-0 with an RBI single in the seventh. Mark Navarro got the Bruins on the board in the eighth with a two-out double that plated Chris Giovinazzo. Gerrit Cole also pitched a complete game in the loss, allowing 10 hits and 5 earned runs.

CS Bakersfield leads series, 1-0.
5/14/2011 1:39:50 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
1whoknows wrote:
Question for all you knowledgeable fans:

If a hypothetical team (such as the Beavers) were to host and win the Regionals would they automatically be selected as hosts for the Super-Regionals?

If you are a national seed (#1 through #8), as opposed to a regular (nonnational) #1 seed (#9 through #16), then you are "automatically" guaranteed to host your regional and super regional (assuming you win the regional). If the national seed is upset, then I believe the higher seed left has the upper hand, but it depends on whether the two remaining teams have put in bids before then to host the super regional. There was some minor controversy over Michigan having to come to Corvallis the year they upset Vanderbilt (a national seed), but Michigan's stadium was under renovation at the time and there was no way they would have hosted, even if they had put in a bid. So OSU got the super.

BB20, you are faster than I.
edited by Dodger Matt on 5/14/2011
5/14/2011 1:43:23 PM
Topic:
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/12

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Kendall....

Seconding the borg's comments and augmenting with a similar query vis-a-vis the WAC teams. You have both Fresno State and Hawaii with autobid asterisks after their names. I assume you expect Hawaii to win the autobid and Fresno to get an atlarge? And would the committee be so cruel as to pair the only two teams from a conference like that? I can understand doing it to the Pac-10...happens all the time. But the WAC? I don't see Rice paired with ECU or Fullerton with Irvine.
5/14/2011 2:02:08 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Beaver fans: The OSU@UW game is streaming live at http://www.gohuskies.com/allaccess/?media=233690. Listening to Mike Parker on AM860, I detect no latency between the two broadcasts. FYI.
5/14/2011 11:23:17 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Day two

BTW, I think I'm going to score horribly this week. Probably not the only one....

Washington State 7, Arizona 6 (10 innings): Arizona led 5-1 going into the bottom of the 6th inning, but that’s when the Cougars scored five times against Arizona starter Kurt Heyer to take a 6-5 lead. Nate Blackham was hit by a pitch and Jones reached on an infield single to open the frame. Taylor Ard followed with a line drive over the wall in left-center field to cut the Wildcats' lead to 5-4. An error allowed Patrick Claussen to reach base and Matt Argyropoulos dropped down a sacrifice bunt for the first out in the inning. Arizona tied the game in the 9th off closer Paris Shewey, who has had trouble closing this season. In the 10th, Matt Chaffey struck out the first two batters, then gave up a two-out double to Kyle Johnson. After intentionally walking Cody Bartlett, he hit Trace Tam Sing to load the bases. Then he walked in the winning run on a 3-2 count. (For a replay, see Oregon State’s second game, below.)

Wazzu leads series, 1-0.


Stanford 9, Oregon 8: Oregon’s collapse matched Oregon State’s in game two against the Huskies. The Ducks jumped on Stanford’s Danny Sandbrink (1.1 IP) and Brian Busick (2.2 IP), scoring in each of the first five innings to lead the Cardinal 8-1. Stanford got 3 back in the 6th and four in the 7th on Stephen Piscotty’s 2 RBI double and Brian Ragira’s triple to tie it 8-8. They scored the winning (unearned) run in the 8th when the Ducks committed two errors. Madison Boer (3-5) took the loss for the Ducks. Chris Reed improved to 4-2 for the Cardinal. Danny Pulfer went 3 for 4, 2 RBIs, 2 runs, and 1 HR for the Ducks. Lonnie Kauppila went 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs, and Stephen Piscotty was 2 for 5 with 2 RBIs for the Cardinal.

Series tied, 1-1.

Arizona State 7, USC 4: The rebuilding Trojans continue to play tough. Down 4-0 in the 4th, they scored three on a 2-run homer by Brandon Garcia and a solo shot by Alex Glenn. They tied the game 4-4 in the 5th and held the Devils until the 8th, when Kyle Richter came in to face his first and only batter, Matt Newman, who led off the inning with a double. Newman eventually scored, as did two other Devils that inning, but Newman was the winning run, and Richter became the losing pitcher. Brandon Garcia went 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs for the Trojans. Andrew Aplin led the Devils going 3 for 4 with 2 RBIs. USC outhit ASU 13-9.

Series tied, 1-1.

Oregon State 9, Washington 3 (game one): The Beavers showed some offense that they probably wish they had saved a little for game two, blasting four home runs, including back-to-back shots by Andrew Susac and Ryan Dunn in the 1st to jump to a 4-0 lead. Jake Rodriguez hit a three-run shot in the 6th after the Huskies walked Jared Norris to get to him. And subfreshman Kavin Keyes hit his first college homer in the 7th, a two-run blast. Sam Gaviglio was not sharp, but earned the win, going 5.2 IP, 4 SO, 1 BB, 10 hits, 3 runs (none earned). Scott Schultz went 3.1 IP for the save. Keyes finished 2 for 5, with 3 RBIs, and 2 runs. Rodriguez was 1 for 2 with 3 RBIs. The Huskies outhit OSU 12-9.

Washington 7, Oregon State 6 (game two): Oregon State started off where they left off in game one, namely swinging the big bats. Danny Hayes hit a two-run homer in the 1st, Susac tripled in two in the 3rd, and the Beavers were up 6-0 after three. In the 6th, the Huskies scored two on a triple, double, and a single. The wheels fell of the cart for the Beavers in the 7th, when Ryan Wiggins led off with a homer off Ben Wetzler and Chase Anselment followed with a double. That chased Wetzler, and Matt Boyd came in to hit a batter and give up a double and single before being lifted for Tony Bryant. In the bottom of the 9th, Washington led off with a double and a single. Bryant intentionally walked the next batter to load the bases with nobody out to provide a force at home. But Bryant (3-2) walked in the losing run on a 3-2 count. Wait. This sounds like a combination of the Arizona and Oregon collapses. UW outhit OSU in the second game also, 14-11.

Oregon State wins series, 2-1.

UCLA 10, CS Bakersfield 1: Too bad UCLA couldn’t have scored some of today’s runs yesterday when they needed them. The Bruins exploded for 8 runs in the 3rd, highlighted by Cody Regis’s three-run homer. Trevor Bauer (10-2) pitched his sixth consecutive complete game, his seventh of the season, striking out 13 and walking two.

Series tied, 1-1.
5/15/2011 2:37:41 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
ASU74 wrote:
Since the CWS new format in 1999 only 6 of 12 National Seeds have won the CWS.

Only 50%? So what's the alternative? Seeing as how Oregon State won two of those titles as a nonnational seed, I'll take our chances as a national seed this year.
5/15/2011 2:41:30 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
'Runnerball wrote:
Dodger Matt wrote:
: Mike McCarthy, a senior from Brentwood, California, right down the road from the UCLA campus,

Another Bakersfield fan here so CD has some company. But, I was a long time lurker and decided to register. Matt, I believe McCarthy is from N. CA Brentwood (up by Concord) our media guide indicates. When he is on, he is lights out. CSUB's offensive slump the last few weeks probably has cost them a regional berth. I hope we can finish up the season strong though and be encouraged to come out next year with Kernen's same high expectations.


Oh, that's too bad. It was a better story for a kid a block away from Westwood to beat UCLA. I didn't even know there was another Brentwood, CA.
5/15/2011 2:48:52 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
BeaverBob wrote:
I was looking at RPI in Boyd's World today. Beavers lose 1 game to UW and fall to 20th, down 9 spots.
edited by BeaverBob on 5/15/2011


This is one of the reasons I scorn the Rat's Patootie Index. I hadn't been checking beforehand, but I believe we dropped even after beating UW. The way the Rat's Patootie works, teams like Washington are lepers. You don't want to even touch them. Doesn't matter if you win or lose, you drop in the RPI. That's why Boyd's RPI needs report says there was no way for us to finish in the top eight RPI given our remaining opponents. It's also one of the reasons why Rogers and Fitt are saying OSU, barring a meltdown, is a virtual lock for a national seed irrespective of our final RPI.

If you look at the more accurate ISRs, OSU is at #8.

Check out our RPI needs now. No way for us to finish in the top 16. Why doesn't the NCAA just admit the Rat's Patootie Index ain't worth a duckturd and scrap it for something better, like the ISR?
edited by Dodger Matt on 5/15/2011
5/15/2011 4:30:23 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
MostUnknown wrote:
Another week, another bound to be underrated performance by Adam Plutko.

Just finished my summary of that game, and the Roadrunners' pitcher, Jonathan Montoya, pitched well too. Very close game.
5/15/2011 4:41:05 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Florida Beaver wrote:
Easy DM, easy. It all come down to left coast, right coast. There always has been, but maybe not always will be, right coast bias. Football and baseball (thaks to UCLA, basketball includes left coast). The big difference? Time. TV will not cover games out here that run until 11 p.m. because most folk will go to sleep and not watch. There is very little cross coast watching going here, but ESPN other carriers of college sports will carry 85% right coast and leave left coast out in the cold. And since TV runs the media perceptions, the right coast is considered the "stronger" coast. Not true, but that's how the perceptions run. I say screw 'em. We know the truth of it.

I get that. Been living that for some time. My beef is the retarded metric that the NCAA baseball committee uses to select and seed teams. The conventional wisdom is that Oregon State will be a national seed. If we win the next two series--don't even have to sweep--we will be among the top eight seeds in the nation. But our RPI will be in the 20s. Kendall Rogers disparages the ISR and says "we don't use it" because the NCAA doesn't use it; they use the RPI. And yet he says OSU is a lock for the top eight. What does this say other than the RPI is useless? The ISR has OSU in the top eight. Doesn't that give you a hint that the ISR may be better at ranking teams if it more accurately approximates your personal assessment of who are the top ranked teams in the nation? And if we can all look at the Rat's Patootie Index and say, "yup...it sucks...not worth a duckturd," then why do people still use it like this: "Team X is 3-1 vs. RPI 25, 6-4 vs. RPI 50, and 12-6 vs. RPI 100"? The whole analysis of teams' performance versus other teams using the RPI becomes meaningless.

Flush the RPI. Loo Flush
5/15/2011 8:06:32 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Day three

Arizona 8, Washington State 1: Wazzu avoided being shut out in their last time up when Tommy Richards led off with a triple, and Trace Tam Sing grounded out to knock him in. Alex Mejia finished 3 for 4 with 2 RBIs for the Cats. Kyle Simon (9-3) pitched a complete game six-hitter for the win, striking out five and walking none. Chad Arnold (2-4), who allowed all 8 Arizona runs (7 earned), took the loss. Rubber game Monday.

Series tied, 1-1.

Oregon 6, Stanford 5: The score rocked back and forth several times, with each team leading or tying at least twice. Stanford’s Tyler Gaffney manufactured his own run in the 5th, tying the game at 4-4. He singled with two outs, stole second, then took both third and home on a two-base wild pitch that Oregon catcher Paul Eshleman couldn’t find. Stanford again tied it in the 7th, when a wild pitch by Scott “Gas Can” McGough made it 5-5. Stanford tried to tie it one last time in the 8th. With the Ducks ahead 6-5, the Cardinal had runners on first and second after Gas Can had issued a two-out walk and surrendered a single. Kenny Diekroeger then singled through the right side, and Dave Giulani got the green light to score from second. Right fielder Aaron Jones threw to catcher Brett Hambright, who held onto the ball and delivered the tag on Giulani in a collision at the plate. The play kept the game-tying run off the board, and allowed Boer to shut out Stanford the rest of the way. McGough (2-6), picked up the win, tossing 1.2 shutout innings of relief on three hits and one walk while fanning two. Brett Thomas finished 2 for 4 with 3 RBIs for the Ducks. The Ducks earned their second Pac-10 series victory of the year and just missed sweeping the Cardinal because of a late-inning collapse yesterday.

Oregon wins series, 2-1.

USC 6, Arizona State 2: Big upset series win for the Trojans solidifies Oregon State’s grasp of the conference championship. The teams traded runs in the 3rd. ASU added a second in the 4th, and USC plated two on Brandon Garcia’s second homer in as many days to take a 3-2 lead. USC’s Alex Sherrod added his own 2 RBI homer in the 7th to increase the Trojan lead to 5-2. USC added a final run in the 8th. USC’s Logan Odom of Central Point, Oregon pitched a complete game for the win. ASU’s Jake Barrett (3.2 IP) took the loss. USC has won four of their seven Pac-10 series.

USC wins series, 2-1.

UCLA 3, CS Bakersfield 2: UCLA comes back from an opening game loss to win the series. Dean Espy led the Bruins at the plate, going 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs and a home run. Adam Plutko (5-3) went 8.0 IP, 12 Ks, 1+1 W+HBP, 4 hits, and 2 runs (both earned). Jonathan Montoya pitched the full 8 for the Roadrunners and did nearly as well as Plutko: 10 Ks 2 BBs, 8 hits, and 3 runs (all earned).

UCLA wins series, 2-1.
5/15/2011 8:21:45 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 13 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
No score update until tomorrow, when the AZ/Wazzu series ends, but I can tell you already this will be the second lowest high score all year (if Arizona wins) or the lowest (if Wazzu wins).

I can also say, with only two weeks left, that it's getting to crunch time for a few players. I will post a new thread on this probably tomorrow on your scores and some advice on how to go about the final two weeks. But in a nutshell, there are about four people in the 17.x range, four in the 16.x range, and the remainder below 16. For someone in the 16.x range to overcome the leader (assuming he maintains and does not fall below his current level), that person would have to score 20 to 24 on the next two weekends. Not impossible, but you have to pick very carefully and the teams might have to accommodate you with a sweep or two.

Bob, what you say about the Trojans is probably true, but remember, a man wearing a Trojan cap on his head is also more likely to score than a man who is not wearing Trojan gear.
5/16/2011 1:22:30 PM
Topic:
TRANSCRIPT: Kendall Rogers' weekly chat (5/16)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Comment From Nick: ] Kendall... I am confused about all the love for Texas and Oregon State. They are "Shoe-in" national seeds. But they both have SOS's in the lower 30s and 40s. I just firmly believe that you should reward teams for playing tougher schedules. The ACC and the SEC are by far the best two leagues, so should both leagues get 3 National Seeds?

Check out these ISRs, Nick:
Rank Rating   W   L      W   L    SoS  Team      

1 127.7 45 6 45 6 62 Virginia
2 127.2 42 8 42 8 45 Vanderbilt
8 122.4 37 12 37 12 38 Oregon State
Maybe we should reward OSU for having a stronger schedule and not give Vandy and UVa national seeds just because they play in "by far the best two leagues".
5/16/2011 3:30:53 PM
Topic:
TRANSCRIPT: Kendall Rogers' weekly chat (5/16)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Comment From David: ] Why the sentiment from so many that the PAC-10 champ is guaranteed a National Seed, while the C-USA champ has to work extra hard to earn it when the two conferences are almost identical (only .0019 separate the two in the conf. rpi ratings)?

Why the sentiment that the C-USA is anywhere near as good as the Pac-10 and that the C-USA champ should be given a national seed when the C-USA is only 1.1 points higher ISR than the Big West in the conference ISR ratings, and the Big West has a far better SOS than the C-USA?

           Division I   Overall
Rank Rating W L W L SoS Conference

1 114.3 380 237 380 237 2 SEC
2 114.0 270 201 270 201 1 Pac 10
3 113.0 369 244 369 244 3 ACC
4 111.8 304 203 304 203 6 Big 12
5 109.5 266 191 266 191 8 C-USA
6 108.4 215 207 215 207 4 Big West
5/16/2011 4:44:59 PM
Topic:
TRANSCRIPT: Kendall Rogers' weekly chat (5/16)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
DM, once again, using ISR to prop up the weak Big West conference is almost as bad as the southeast schools hanging their hat on RPI to boost up their lousy schools performance.
Walt, I am in no way trying to prop up the Big West. Yes, the C-USA is far better than the Big West this year, but still nowhere near the Pac. My point is to show how silly these RPI-centric arguments are.
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