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Dodger Matt - all messages by user

4/30/2011 10:52:37 PM
Topic:
BEAVERS: Whom to root for (actually, against)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Saturday...
Arizona State             Lost to Stanford 6-4
North Carolina Idle
Georgia Tech Beat Clemson 5-1
Florida State Beat Miami 2-0
Texas A&M Lost to Missouri 9-1


Also of note:
Virginia Lost to Boston College 5-4 in 11 innings
5/1/2011 9:47:59 AM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 11 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Whoknows, very nice. What is cool is you can hear the people around the camera are clearly Bruin fans (plus all the baby blue gear hey don at the end), yet they give Osich his props: "He's pitched a helluva game." The one guy acknowledges the umpire's wide strike zone too, but says, "he's been consistent the whole game."

Thanks for the video link.
5/1/2011 9:55:35 AM
Topic:
Interesting Beaver Article

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
The final parags:

Unheralded kids from the Pacific Northwest made up the foundation of the 2006-07 championship teams. High-profile recruits started to be drawn to Oregon State, and Casey said a sense of entitlement crept into the program. The Beavers didn’t make the NCAA tournament in 2008, and they’ve lost in regionals the last two years. “I never felt they really got the grasp of what it took to be a winner,” Casey said. “We had personalities that put themselves ahead of our team, and their draft status and advancement in pro baseball got ahead of taking care of business as a college athlete.”

I got that feeling too, sorry to say, and I won't point a finger at any of the players, but I'm much happier with the kids Casey has this year than (some on) the crew for the last couple seasons. And yes, this team feels a lot like the 2005 team to me.
5/1/2011 10:04:36 AM
Topic:
Kendall time to eat crow!

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
It's The Talons wrote:
I'd also venture to say that there is not much difference between the PAC-10 and C-USA.

Now you're starting to sound like Walt Greenberg. CUSA has made some strides, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
5/1/2011 10:22:41 AM
Topic:
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (ASK Q'S)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Kendall, you list CS Bakersfield in your "Next 10". Are they postseason eligible this year? If not, would you include them with an asterisk if they made your list?
5/1/2011 12:31:58 PM
Topic:
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (ASK Q'S)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Cool. I hope they get in. BTW, there are "other" college baseball sites out there that list them as ineligible.
5/1/2011 4:39:24 PM
Topic:
BEAVERS: Whom to root for (actually, against)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Sunday...
Arizona State             Beat Stanford 7-1
North Carolina Idle
Georgia Tech Lost to Clemson 3-1
Florida State Lost to Miami 5-1
Texas A&M Beat Missouri 3-2 in 7 innings
We'll see what the ISR/RPI numbers are tomorrow and who thinks OSU should not be a national seed.
5/1/2011 5:03:58 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 11 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Day three:

UCLA 5, Oregon State 2: In the 6th inning, with the bases loaded, Chris Giovinazzo rapped a two-run double off reliever Scott Schultz to break a 1-1 tie. Beau Amaral then batted in two more on a single off Matt Boyd. OSU got one back in the 7th to bring the score to 5-2. The Beavers threatened again in the 8th, loading the bases with one out, but Nick Vander Tuig induced a 4-6-3 DP from Ryan Barnes to keep them off the board. Giovinazzo finished 3 for 4 with 2 RBIs, 2 runs, and a stolen base for the Bruins. Jared Norris led the Beavers with a 3 for 5, 1 RBI mark. The Beavers doubled the Bruin's mark in hits, 14 to 7. Adam Plutko (3-3) went 6.1 IP for the win. Ben Wetzler (5-2) took the loss.

Oregon State wins series, 2-1.

Arizona State 7, Stanford 1: Arizona State scored two in the 1st on a Joey DeMichele two-run homer, erasing a 1-0 Cardinal lead, then tacked on solo runs in the 2nd, 4th, and 5th innings (via another DeMichele homer). They added two more in the 7th thanks to yet another Joey DeMichele two-run homer. No surprise DeMichele led the Devils going 3 for 5, with all three hits home runs, and 5 RBIs.

Arizona State wins series, 2-1.

Cal 5, Oregon 4: The Ducks knocked Cal starter Dixon Anderson out after 1.1 IP, scoring three on him in the 1st, highlighted by a 2 RBI double by Ryon Healy, and another run in the 2nd, all earned. Cal got one back in the 4th on two doubles and scored two in the 7th. They tied the game 4-4 in the 8th on an error by the second baseman. Cal scored the winning run in the bottom of the ninth when Marcus Semien, who doubled with one out, was singled home by Austin Booker. Booker led the Bears, going 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs. Ryon Healy led the Ducks, going 3 for 4 with 3 RBIs. Matt Flemer got the win; Scott McGough took the loss. Arizona’s Bobby Brown (immortalized by the song of the same name by Frank Zappa) finished 3 for 4 with 2 RBIs.

Cal wins series, 2-1.

Arizona 8, USC 5: USC tagged Arizona’s Kurt Heyer for four runs in the 2nd on a double and four singles. The Trojans scored another run in the 3rd, and that’s when their offensive train pulled into the station and closed shop for the day. Trailing 5-2 entering the 6th, the Cats evened the score when their first four batters hit a triple, a 2-run homer (Robert Refsnyder), another triple, and a single. They took a 6-5 lead two batters later on their fifth hit of the inning. They added two in the 8th for the final score. Heyer is Arizona’s typical Friday ace, but head coach Andy Lopez threw Heyer at ASU during a nonconference weekday game, which Heyer lost, so Heyer pitched on a Sunday to make up the rest he lost pitching Tuesday.

Arizona sweeps series, 3-0.

Washington 6, Washington State 5: Both Evergreen State teams created dueling picket fences of single runs, with the Huskies taking a 4-3 lead in the 7th. UW scored two in the 9th, highlighted by Willy Reel’s RBI triple. The Cougs scored two two-out unearned runs in the bottom of the 9th, but couldn’t complete the comeback. The Huskies again outhit the Cougars, this time 15 to 8, and outerred them 4 to 1.

Wazzu wins s series 2-1.
5/1/2011 5:19:45 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 11 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Scores:
  • 19 CaughtBySparky
  • 19 rec1347
  • 19 SouthernBeaver
  • 18 Florida Beaver
  • 17 Dodger Matt
  • 17 opihi man
  • 17 SouthCoastStu
  • 16 BeaverBeliever20
  • 16 MostUnknown
  • 16 YellowlabOSU
  • 15 BeaverBob
  • 15 borgguy
  • 15 cas77
  • 14 ASU74
  • 14 CdinSV
  • 14 WCC1
  • 14 WildCard85
  • 12 949baseballfan
Score analysis:
  • The OSU, Cal, and Wazzu series yielded identical 3.33 average scores, although 11/18 correctly picked OSU 2-1, 10/18 picked Cal 2-1, and 7/18 picked Wazzu 2-1.
  • 9/18 correctly picked ASU 2-1, producing a 3.28 average score.
  • Only 2/18 picked Arizona 3-0 over USC, for a 2.67 average score.
  • Nobody correctly picked all five series.
  • Two of this week's three top scorers (CaughtBySparky and SouthernBeaver) picked four of five series, only missing Arizona.
  • Four players got three series right.
5/1/2011 5:32:26 PM
Topic:
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (ASK Q'S)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Kendall wrote:
Dodger Matt wrote:
Cool. I hope they get in. BTW, there are "other" college baseball sites out there that list them as ineligible.


Who is saying that? All I know is Coach Kernen told me multiple times for a story they were eligible this year ..... even made that the premise of a story I did earlier this year.


It's a secondary link, one I clicking on after JPK sent folks to his April 26 projections. Still it had me wondering....
5/1/2011 5:35:38 PM
Topic:
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (ASK Q'S)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
OpihiMan wrote:
In typical 2011 Duck fashion they blow another game 5-4 and lose the series...with series left against Stanford, Washington State, and Oregon State the Quackers are done...put a fork in them.

"Typical 2011 Duck fashion"? Are we categorizing Duck meltdowns by year now? "Last Saturday was a typical 2009 Duck collapse, but Sunday's loss was more like a 2011 meltdown...."

5/2/2011 3:30:36 PM
Topic:
Pac 10 Player & Pitcher of the Week

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
These two probably make up the most obvious pair of player/pitcher of the week selections since I can remember. Joey D had a fabulous weekend. I did a double-take when I saw the stats yesterday show 3 HRs. And how often does anyone no-hit a conference opponent? Props to both kids.
5/2/2011 7:31:51 PM
Topic:
Weekly Chat?

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
A different chat. Great props to Kendall and Aaron Fitt, and no disrespect quoting the latter here, but Fitt cracks me up sometimes. Here are three Oregon State comments in a row. Last one's the best....
    Brandon (Oregon): How much did Josh Osich's no hitter make him in terms of $$$ resulting from moving up in the draft?

Aaron Fitt: Had to help. There was a lot of scouting heat in there to see him and Bauer, and Osich also started throwing his curveball again for the first time this year. His stock is certainly on the rise.

    Jake (Portland, OR): Do you have any insight as to when Oregon State will get Andrew Susac back, and do you see them being able to keep this winning up and win the Pac 10?

Aaron Fitt: It sounds like he's making progress. He could potentially be back in the next two weeks, and they're saying the worst-case scenario is he'll be back for the season-ending Oregon series.

    Pat (Chapel Hill): Can you explain why Oregon State is still ranked ahead of Vandy? I literally can't think of one reason supporting the ordering of these two teams.

Aaron Fitt: Literally? Not even one? Really? You must not be thinking very hard. How about an 11-2 mark against the top 25 (Vandy is 6-3)? How about the fact that Oregon State hasn't lost a weekend series? How about peak value? Oregon State swept Arizona State, which trumps anything Vanderbilt has done. How about common opponents? Vandy took 2 of 3 from Stanford at home; Oregon State swept Stanford on the road. How about road series wins against Arizona and Stanford and UCLA, all of whom will be in regionals and all of whom are very talented? But you can't think of a single reason, huh? Vanderbilt is awesome, and its season has been awesome, and its record is a couple of games better than Oregon State's (although I'm not particularly impressed with Vandy's nonconference strength of schedule, with all those games against Brown, UIC and a USD team that is a shadow of what it usually is). But you think, just maybe, Oregon State might have a case, too?
5/3/2011 1:31:10 PM
Topic:
Question about RPI

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
As Opihi Man states, the Rat's Patootie Index overranks southeastern teams. This is why the SEC primarily but also other southeastern conferences favor its continued usage. Boyd' ISRs are more accurate because they don't stop at Opponents' Opponents and factor in all games and opponents. Not perfect, but better. This is why experts and pundits who use the RPI solely for their assessments are usually a bit off. Looking at the two teams you are questioning, check out the ISRs versus the RPIs:

ISR:
15 118.6 28 15 29 15 13 Miami, Florida
16 118.4 30 14 30 14 40 Texas A&M

RPI:
11 0.598 28 15 29 15 Miami, Florida
16 0.594 30 14 30 14 Texas A&M

Opihi Man says anyone east of Arizona gets penalized in the RPI, but from my experience, teams in Texas are usually in the "just right" zone--almost equal in both--and this example shows it for aTm. But Miami is four slots higher in the RPI.
5/4/2011 11:06:38 AM
Topic:
Ducks laying it to the Beavers tonite..

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
A 10-3 win-loss record versus the Ducks since Oregon reinstitued baseball is unacceptable. All I can say is, it better be 13-3 by season's end.
5/5/2011 3:41:26 PM
Topic:
More Baseball Coverage in the PAC12

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
...football...
...basketball...
...basketball...
...football...
...basketball...
...football...
...basketball...
...football...
...football...
...basketball...
...football...

I didn't see one reference to baseball in this story. Cursing

BTW, Kendall, what do you know about the Pac-12 baseball schedule for next year? With Utah joining (and Colorado not particpating), has there been discussion of splitting the conference back into divisions? (I hope not.) Will we have one of those stupid conference tourneys? (I hope not.) What are the coaches saying and what would they like to happen? And when will we know for sure?
5/5/2011 7:09:15 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 12 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
This is one of those odd weeks, with only three conference matchups, three nonconference series, and one team (USC) taking a bye. Because we have to assume that there will be an equal number of series (five) every week, whenever we have more than five, I have to multiply the raw scores by the number of series divided by 5. What this means is we'll have fractional scores and fractional averages. It's good...allows more separation. It usually means the possibility of higher scores too, so a chance to raise your averages.

Here are the games. Numbers are ISRs as of 5/5.
  • #15 Cal at #8 OSU
  • #21 UCLA at #50 Ore
  • #166 UW at #13 Stan
  • #43 LBS at #5 ASU
  • #64 UNLV at #49 WSU
  • #243 Alcorn at #25 Ariz
Tops this week is Cal at Oregon State. OSU has won all five conference series this year. The Beavers take on a good Cal team, currently in 3rd place and 2.5 game back of the Beavers.
With a sweep, Cal would knock the Beavers out of first. They wouldn't quite swap places with the Beavs, but it would be a huge boost for Cal, putting them within a game of ASU for the lead.

UCLA visits Eugene to battle the resurgent Ducks, who have shown a little spark of late with a midweek win over in-state rival OSU and a very close series loss to Cal, in which each game was decided by one run and an average game score of 3.3 to 3.0. Whichever team decides to score a couple of runs in this pitching-laden series might do just enough to win the three-game set.

The weakest conference series belongs to UW at Stanford. Even if the Cardinal wins this series, expect their RPI to drop. BTW, expect the Cardinal to win also.

In the nonconference series, we have two interesting matchups. First Long Beach at ASU. This is CSULB's EIGHTH different Pac-10 opponent this year. The Dirtbags are 7-9 against the Pac, with four games left. (They play one game against UCLA next week.) They've beaten Oregon (2-1) and USC (2-0); they've lost to UA (2-1), OSU (2-1), Stanford (2-1), UCLA (1-0), and Cal (1-0).

UNLV of the Mountain West actually has a pretty decent record (28-18), with wins over Texas Tech, TCU, Arizona, and Baylor. Wazzu, at 19-20 and barely alive for a postseason chance, could break the .500 mark with a sweep.

And finally, some team known as Alcorn State (from the Southwestern Athletic Conference) has kindly offered to be sacrificial lambs for the Wildcats. The fact that Alcorn State is in 1st place in the SWAC, with a 19-4 conference record, and a 10-0 winning streak doesn't change that ISR of 243. And their nonconference record is 3-16, with two wins against D2 Illinois-Springfield and one against Southern from the...SWAC. Yes their one D1 “nonconference” win is against a fellow conference member in a nonconference game. An easy 6 points here....

The reminders:
  • Vote for the team you expect to win and whether the results will be 3-0 or 2-1.
  • Pick teams in the exact order posted. This makes it easier for me to tabulate.
  • Use the team abbreviations listed in the sample below. (This means NO to "Furd" "UA" "WASH", etc.)
  • You can change your picks up until first pitch of the first game.
  • There are no prizes. We play for glory.
Points are awarded in the following manner:

Pick . . Result . . Pts.
3-0 . . . 3-0 . . . . . 6
. . . . . . 2-1 . . . . . 3
. . . . . . 1-2 . . . . . 1
. . . . . . 0-3 . . . . . 0

2-1 . . . 3-0 . . . . . 3
. . . . . . 2-1 . . . . . 4
. . . . . . 1-2 . . . . . 2
. . . . . . 0-3 . . . . . 1

A sample poll would look like this:

OSU 2-1
Ore 2-1
Stan 2-1
LBS 3-0
WSU 3-0
Alcorn 3-0
5/5/2011 7:24:05 PM
Topic:
Ducks laying it to the Beavers tonite..

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Riverduck wrote:
I think this could be the downfall.. But you know wishful thinking. I think if the beavers lose the cal series, things could implode really fast. Then I would get to say.. OVER-RATED! But that happening will probably be slim to none. So don't get too upset. Firsts are starting to get slim these days, so the next first is winning a series at home, last game of the year.

Riverduck you're funny. And I don't mean that in a demeaning way. Contrary to FB, I hope you do jump back into the Pac-10 predictions. We need a Duck presence.
5/5/2011 7:57:43 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 12 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Florida Beaver wrote:
Thanks DM. I really like doing this every week, no matter if I am good, bad or indifferent in my picks.

Cool. I like doing it too, but I feel like I'm cheering in the wind without the occasional props, so thanks. I was almost afraid I had missed the boat this week and lost a n early start Thursday night game cuz I misread the schedule. But I am still a day later than usual. So I apologize to anyone who was expecting them yesterday. This could be our highest scoring week ever. Four sweeps does not seem implausible, and it could be more. The early votes seem to indicate this as well....
5/5/2011 8:18:40 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 12 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
OpihiMan wrote:
With big risk comes big reward (or failure...)

OSU 3-0
UCLA 2-1
Stan 3-0
ASU 3-0
WSU 3-0
Ariz 3-0 (though I'd say 10-0 if they played 10x)


Opihi Man votes for 5 sweeps. Do I hear 6? Going...going.......
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