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Dodger Matt - all messages by user

6/12/2012 8:45:57 PM
Topic:
CWS predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Not sure how this will work out. Made up rules and points on the fly, but I can probably iron out the wrinkles on the fly too, if any come up. Open to all baseball fans, of course. Pick the winners and runners-up in each CWS bracket.

There are four ways to win a CWS bracket:
  • 3-0: You beat the first team, beat the winner of the other game, then beat whoever emerges from the loser's bracket.
  • 3-1: You beat the first team, beat the winner of the other game, LOSE a game to the loser's bracket survivor, then beat that team.
  • 4-1: You beat the first team, lose to the winner of the other game, beat the winner of the loser's game, then beat the 2-0 team twice.
  • 4-1: You lose your first game, then go Oregon State by beating the other game one loser, beating the loser of the winner's game, then beating the 2-0 team (Rice) twice.
For our purposes, we are not concerned with the subtle distinction between the last two, so we have three options: 3-0, 3-1, or 4-1. What you will do is pick which team from each four-team bracket wins and whether they do it 3-0, 3-1, or 4-1. You will also pick the runner-up from each bracket and whether they finish 2-2 or 3-2.

Points are awarded on this basis:
  • Correctly pick winner 3-0: 9
  • Correctly pick winner 3-1: 10
  • Correctly pick winner 4-1: 11
  • Correctly pick runner-up 2-2: 7
  • Correctly pick runner-up 3-2: 8

If you pick the winner or runner-up but you are off in terms of games won/lost, subtract two points from the lower total. For example, if you pick Stony Brook to win 3-0 and they win 4-1, you get 9 minus 2.

You may also get up to half the points for picking one or the other team correctly but swapping winner and runner-up status. For example, if you pick Florida 3-0 and they finish 3-2 runner-up, you will get 4 points.
Here are the brackets. (I believe the upper one in this list is being called Bracket One and the lower one Bracket Two):

Seed. .ISR. .RPI. . Conf . . .Team
2 . . . 1 . . 2 . . .PAC . . .UCLA
. . . .55 . .52 . . .AmE . . .Stony Brook
3 . . . 4 . . 3 . . .ACC . . .Florida State
11. . . 7 . . 9 . . .PAC . . .Arizona

1 . . . 2 . . 1 . . .SEC . . .Florida
8 . . . 8 . . 8 . . .SEC . . .South Carolina
. . . .13 . .10 . . .SEC . . .Arkansas
. . . .43 . .48 . . .MAC . . .Kent State

A sample ballot would look like this:

  • Stony Brook 3-0
  • UCLA 3-2
  • Kent State 4-1
  • Arkansas 2-2
6/12/2012 8:57:44 PM
Topic:
CWS predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
A version for dummies? Hmm... I think it involves a dartboard and this: Bong
6/12/2012 9:28:07 PM
Topic:
CWS predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
BeaverBob wrote:
DM, have you given any thought about also posting on Rivals or posting a link to get some of the folks to come to PG to participate?

I have in the past. Did not get many takers. It's one reason I jumped over here whole hog. That and the Nike ads and spam that proliferated once there was no moderation. They still have a better collection of nationwide fans there, and discussions are pretty good. But I hitch my horse in one spot.
6/12/2012 9:35:32 PM
Topic:
CWS predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Riverduck wrote:
Well, I am mourning with a little Makers Mark. I started reading the fine print.. Sheesh. I feel like a newbie. Yeah, that stuff makes me want to have it in the morning though. Won't do it.

Were you Marky-Marking it up on Opihi's "Horton hears a Boo" thread? You earned about 8 negative marks in that thread alone with one barely incoherent message after another. I'm gonna hafta check the times you posted to see if you were marky-mourning in the morning. Funny thing is, I was going to give you a thumbs-up on one of your posts to bring you even (you were -1 at the time). Now, well, what's the point.....
6/13/2012 6:19:56 PM
Topic:
CWS predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Lots of talk but only three picks:
  • SouthernBeaver
  • ASU74
  • Rowdy
Everyone still has a day and a half. But do I need to break out the green-n-yell-o bong for the dummies, to get more picks in this thread?
6/14/2012 6:51:09 PM
Topic:
CWS predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Josh, great to see you join. I realize this has been largely a Pac-12 (and Oregon State) series of threads, but I'm happy to see other fans take part.

Here are some stats on the two brackets that I found interesting. the first five columns are NCAA stats: batting average on-base percentage, earned run average, hits allowed per nine innings, and fielding percentage. the last two are Massey's overall offensive and defensive scores. These are all ordinal numbers, not cardinals, meaning the ERA number is how that team ranks nationally, not what its actual ERA is. (You can go look those up for yourselves if you're so inclined.) it just gives a little extra info on how to look at the two brackets and at the teams within each bracket. Okay, here are the numbers. Anything in the top ten nationally I've shaded RED. Anything over 100th is BLUE.
. . . . . . . . . BA. . . OBP. . . ERA . .Hp9. . .Fldg. . .Off . .Def
UCLA. . . . . . . 12. . . .14. . . 22. . . 16. . . 19 . . . 2. . . 1
Stony Brook . . . .3. . . . 5. . . 12. . . .7. . . 12 . . .44. . .53
Florida State . .112. . . . 7. . . 58. . . 55. . . 88 . . .11. . .24
Arizona . . . . . .5. . . . 9. . . 92. . .102. . .119 . . . 1. . .40

Florida . . . . .107. . . 137. . . .8. . . 27. . . .7 . . .14. . . 3
South Carolina. .174. . . 162. . . 17. . . .3. . . .5 . . .48. . . 5
Arkansas. . . . .160. . . 170. . . .7. . . .5. . . 84 . . .52. . .12
Kent State. . . . 23. . . .49. . . 59. . . 43. . . 38 . . .36. . .68
The first thing that struck me is how defense- and pitching-oriented the SEC (lower) bracket is compared with the Pac-12 (upper) bracket, which surprisingly seems more offensive. Look at the first two columns. Even Florida State's 112th-best BA is better than two of the SEC teams in the lower bracket, and everybody in the upper bracket is among the tops in nation in terms of OBP. In the lower bracket, the OBP looks horrible, considering these are CWS teams. Only Kent State breaks the 50-mark.

In terms of pitching and defense, the lower bracket looks better, but not overwhelmingly so. If anything, Arizona looks to have the weakest pitching, with Florida State and Kent State not too much better, but the other five look fairly even. That fielding rank for the Wildcats also looks conspicuous, seeing as their shortstop won the Pac-12's defensive POY award. (That was probably an error itself, but let's not go there.)

Think of the last two (Massey) columns as summaries of the first five columns. In this perspective, UCLA looks like the odds-on favorite with #2 and #1 in offense and defense. Next best would be Florida.

Of course, once they start playing you can throw all of these stats out the window, but that's why I find looking at these numbers ahead of time so much fun.
6/14/2012 9:02:28 PM
Topic:
CWS predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I kept wanting to go for one of the underdogs, but the more I looked at the teams, the more I think it will still be the top four. Stony Brook is still one to watch out for and could make some waves. And I think the upper bracket is much more balanced than the lower bracket in that I could see any of those four teams advance. But in the lower bracket, I'd be surprised if it's not SoCar or Flardy.

UCLA 3-1
Ariz 3-2

UF 3-0
Scar 2-2
6/14/2012 10:06:03 PM
Topic:
This Week In Pac-12 Baseball

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Conforto was also named the NCBWA's National Freshman Hitter of the Year on Tuesday, June 12. He was one of seven players from the Pac-12 to be named to one of the NCBWA's three All-America Teams - and the only position player from the conference - and one of only three freshmen nationally. With the selection, he becomes the first player in OSU history to be named an All-American as a freshman.

Conforto led Oregon State with a .349 batting average, 13 home runs, 76 runs batted in, 131 total bases and .601 slugging percentage this past season. This from a guy whom a prominent Duck fan on this board said "flew under his radar" all season, even though this humble reporter remarked on the freshman's accomplishments almost weekly. Well, I guess if your radar is part of the SETI project and you're beaming into outer space in search of alien life forms, then yeah, I guess he could have flown under your radar.

Anyway, lucky to have this guy and looking forward to him mashing for the Beavers for another couple years.
6/15/2012 5:58:55 PM
Topic:
CWS predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Here's the (very limited) stats we have for the (very few) votes cast:
 . . . . . . . .TTL. . 1st. . 2nd
UCLA . . . . . . 7 . . .4 . . .3
Arizona. . . . . 6 . . .2 . . .4
Florida State. . 4 . . .2 . . .2
Stony Brook. . . 1 . . .1 . . .0

Florida. . . . . 8 . . .7 . . .1
South Carolina . 8 . . .2 . . .6
Kent State . . . 1 . . .0 . . .1
Arkansas . . . . 1 . . .0 . . .1
No big surprises for me. The upper bracket is a little more balanced, but still topped by UCLA and Arizona. Bottom bracket dominated by Florida and SoCar. My guess is the two 0-2 teams will be SB and Ark.
6/15/2012 6:03:30 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Super Regional Predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Bob, I think you probably haven't been watching the postseason games on ESPN video streams. Here's the source of my allusion. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=N329wexl2Yg

Dodger Matt wrote:
BeaverBob wrote:
Out of respect for my good Duck Buddy, no cheering -- at least externally

BeaverBob and his Duck Buddy, after Duck Buddy returns from the men's room.

    Duck Buddy: What happened to my Fielder's Choice Hamburger? BeaverBob, did you take my Fielder's Choice Hamburger?

    BeaverBob: This one's got caramelized onions on it.

    Duck Buddy: Mine had caramelized onions on it.

    BeaverBob: Wow. How bout that?

    Disinterested Duck fan texting her mom and not watching the Ducks lose: Wow.



6/15/2012 6:06:11 PM
Topic:
CWS predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
UCLA takes game one 9-1 over Stony Brook.
Arizona and Florida State coming up. That one should be good. Cool
6/15/2012 8:35:20 PM
Topic:
CWS predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Florida State's defense is not looking sharp. I thought they were going to take out the shortstop after that pickle error, his second-and-a-half bad play already. Arizona up 3-1.
6/15/2012 9:02:41 PM
Topic:
CWS predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Seminole runner was out at first to start the bottom of the 6th. That led to to two unearned runs to tie it. Top 7th, 3-3.
6/15/2012 11:05:43 PM
Topic:
CWS predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Here you guys are. I was alone for most of this game. Pretty good one too.
6/17/2012 10:39:05 AM
Topic:
CWS predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
hogfan4life wrote:
Riverduck wrote:
I think KS will match up well versus arkansas, but after that, I just don't think they can hang with the bats of Florida

Wrong! DOwn goes another Cinderella.

Way to make a prediction and then come back and gloat. Uh, you did make a prediction, didn't you?

The cinderellas aren't down yet. Or, maybe they're down, but like Barack said about Michelle, they just haven't gone down all the way. They both get a chance to stay alive. I like Stony Brook's chances against Florida State. And what if Kent State upends #1 seed Florida tomorrow and sends them home 0-2?
6/17/2012 7:27:11 PM
Topic:
CWS predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
The Omaha announcers just stated that UCLA has a 21-4 road/neutral record. And that one of those four losses was to this Arizona team, but they did win that series on the road 2-1. I had to check...

UCLA lost HALF of their road/neutral games in Corvallis. Cool

4/20/2012 at Oregon State * W 4-0
4/21/2012 at Oregon State * L 3-0
4/22/2012 at Oregon State * L 7-6
6/17/2012 8:07:03 PM
Topic:
CWS predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Arizona has three baseball NCs; UCLA has none.

That was quite a beginning and quite a reversal. Both pitchers retired the first ten batters they faced. But Arizona's eleventh got things rolling, and the 12th, 13th, 14th, and 15th all reached base in a four-run 4th. Konner Wade is looking unbeatable. Just retired his 13th batter. Cats lead 4-0.
6/17/2012 8:14:51 PM
Topic:
CWS predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Spoke too soon. With two out in the 5th, the next three Bruins stroke singles. But they come up empty.
6/17/2012 8:31:38 PM
Topic:
FSU vs SB

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
So long, Stony Brook. Wish you had stayed around at least one game longer and gotten at least one win.

Did they just face two far better teams in UCLA and Florida State than they had already faced to get to the CWS? Clearly the competition in the Coral Gables regional was not that great, but they owned LSU in Baton Rouge, and the Tigers were not chopped liver. But they were outscored 21-3 in those two CWS games. I wonder if the "aura" of Omaha got to a few key players and tripped them up.

In any case, a great season. I would love to see them follow it up next year with more postseason success, but I think they probably lost too many players to the draft.
6/17/2012 9:26:39 PM
Topic:
Lamenting 40 years of Title IX

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I'm tired of seeing the commercial celebrating Title IX. It's one of those politically correct federal regulations that have contributed to lessening of options for males. If you look at college trends, there are far more women in college and far more of them doing better than men in and out of college. Why did we need to "level the playing field" in athletics for women? So more people could watch the WNBA? Really, who gives a flying 4&q% about the WNBA? Meanwhile universities across the nation have had to shut down wrestling, baseball, and other men's sports because they don't have an equal number of women's sports. I've heard that some schools were begging girls to sign up for sports because they couldn't fill the teams. While the men's teams had to cut players.

Time to reverse this federal regulation.
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