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Dodger Matt - all messages by user

6/3/2012 7:17:41 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Ah wubb mah Beavahs!

5-3 Oregon State!
6/3/2012 7:20:35 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Nick Rumbelow? Sounds like a pirate....
6/3/2012 7:37:40 PM
Topic:
Day three: Advanced and eliminated

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
UNC becomes first national seed to bite the dust, losing to St. John (who will unfortunately get eaten alive by Arizona).
6/3/2012 7:47:19 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
1whoknows wrote:
Never mind. Wow....just found a free TV feed from LSU.

What's the link?
6/3/2012 7:56:58 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I can't believe I have been missing video all weekend. Suicide
6/3/2012 8:18:54 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Ouch. That kid hit the wall bad and still got up and threw the ball in.
6/3/2012 8:34:48 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Shhh........
6/3/2012 8:55:30 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Boyd was nails. Last gasp now. No Conforto. Watch the pinch hitter stream.
6/3/2012 9:04:37 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
That was a frustrating loss. And yes, Dunn's two 7th-inning errors that allowed that unearned run cost us the win.
6/4/2012 12:14:59 AM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Sure. With four of them getting in, it will be doable.
Won't have all the regional predictions and scores done for a day or so.
6/4/2012 12:53:51 AM
Topic:
Day three: Advanced and eliminated

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Changed this from the day three surprises topic, but then I thought of some other things that qualify as surprises (that fans should celebrate):

Amazing run of the small conference teams!

American East: Stony Brook is 3-1 in the Coral gables regional and has outscored their opponents 40-23, beating Miami, Missouri State, and Central Florida. Their lone loss was a 9-8 affair to UCF, whom they play tomorrow for the championship. If they win, they head to Baton Rouge, a tough venue. But this is the little engine that could.

Mid-American: Kent State battled Kentucky, whom many thought were on the cusp of being sent to Miami as a traveling #1 but entered the Gary regional as a #2, to a 21-inning 7-6 victory, then beat host Purdue the next day after that marathon game, and beat UK again to sweep the Gary regional.

Big East: Louisville ran into the Arizona slaughterhouse, but fellow BE team St. John went into what everyone called the easiest regional and a gift to North Carolina as a 3 seed and emerged with a 3-0 sweep. The Johnnies beat East Carolina, a very low 2 seed in most experts' opinions, then dispatched host and national seed UNC twice to biunce them from their own regional.

Independent: Dallas Baptist is not done yet, but they have a chance to steal the Waco regional from host and national 4 seed Baylor.

SoCon: Because all games were rain-delayed a day in the Charlottesville regional, this one is not yet decided. But Appalachian State has already beaten host Virginia (eliminated) and Oklahoma. The Sooners will have to beat the Mountaineers twice, but App State only needs one more win. The three SoCon teams have a 5-4 record so far.
6/4/2012 11:56:54 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Regional Predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Regional prediction scores

Here are the final regional predictions outcomes and scores.
  • Ariz 3-0
  • Ore 3-0
  • OSU 2-2
  • Stan 3-0
  • UCLA 3-0
Scores
  • 27.0 Dodger Matt
  • 25.0 FullertonBaseballFan
  • 25.0 MiamiBaseball
  • 25.0 MostUnknown
  • 24.0 BeaverQuist
  • 24.0 SouthernBeaver
  • 23.0 OpihiMan
  • 22.0 WildCard85
  • 21.0 ASU74
  • 21.0 borgguy
  • 18.0 RiverDuck
  • 17.0 BeaverBob
  • 17.0 Florida Beaver
  • 15.0 ConnorOSU
Dodger Matt gets high score for the second year in a row. (Pats self on back, then scratches, spits, takes a drink, and moves on.) Only series I missed was OSU, but we came so close with a 10-inning loss. Dam.

Fullerton, Miami, and Unknown all had the same picks and only missed Oregon (guessing 3+).

I’ll have supers set up tomorrow. Because the regional predictions were so close, I will have to think of a tiebreaker. Stay tuned.
6/5/2012 12:18:53 AM
Topic:
Day three: Advanced and eliminated

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
ASU, that's the position 2Bulldogs was taking on Rivals, as you probably are aware. Notice the updated list at the top of this thread...the red teams that upset the #1 seeds. Two of those stand out for me:
  • Kent State was a 3 seed and beat a highly rated (but suspect) 1 seed in Purdue and also a nearly-selected host team and 2 seed Kentucky. I don't think they'll fare as well in Eugene, but they would not have had a chance under 2BD's proposal. Good for the Golden Flashes.
  • The biggest surprise and now my favorite underdog is 4 seed Stony Brook. (If Oregon State had managed to beat LSU, I would not favor the Seawolves, but I'm their biggest fan this weekend.) They scored 50 RUNS in five games in the Coral Gables regional. If they can average that in Baton Rouge, they have a chance to take it in three games and make it to the College World Series. How great would that be?
Appalachian State failed to advance, but they acquitted themselves well. And Dallas Baptist just missed it again. Honorable mention to Austin Peay, finishing second in the Eugene regional ahead of Fullerton and Indiana State.
6/5/2012 6:08:58 PM
Topic:
Pac-12...Softball

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I don't know about Alabama's lineup, but O-Calif-homa has only two Okie girls on it, one from Australia, and the rest from the Golden State.
6/5/2012 9:35:31 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Super Regional Predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Okay here goes. Let's start with the four super regional matchups, then I'll provide the rules.

Super regional pairings

The upper team is the favored (host) team. The numbers byond the win-loss-percentages are rankings from Boyd and Massey plus Boyd's ISR-based probabilities for winning the super regionals.
Conf. .Team . . . . W. . L. . .Pct. . Boyd. .Msey. .RPI . . Prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------
PAC . .UCLA . . . . 45 . 14 . 0.763 . . 1 . . .1 . . .1 . . 83.7
MWC . .TCU. . . . . 40 . 20 . 0.667 . .22 . . 22 . . 32 . . 16.3

PAC . .Oregon . . . 45 . 17 . 0.726 . . 3 . . .2 . . .5 . . 86.8
MAC . .Kent St. . . 44 . 17 . 0.721 . .54 . . 53 . . 59 . . 13.2

PAC . .Arizona. . . 41 . 17 . 0.707 . . 6 . . .4 . . .9 . . 93.9
BgE . .St. John . . 40 . 21 . 0.656 . .64 . . 68 . . 39 . . .6.1

ACC . .Florida St . 46 . 15 . 0.754 . . 7 . . 13 . . .3 . . 56.0
PAC . .Stanford . . 41 . 16 . 0.719 . . 2 . . .3 . . 12 . . 44.0
Scoring

There are four possibilities for each super regional:
  • 0-2: The team loses the first two games and is done.
  • 1-2: The team wins one of the first two then loses the third game and is done.
  • 2-1: The team wins one of the first two games then wins the third and goes to Omaha.
  • 2-0: The team wins the first two games and goes to Omaha.
I've upped the scores a bit, especially on the winning end, to provide a possible range similar to our regular season prediction scores. Here's how the scoring goes. Your pick is along the top; actual result is on the side:
Your pick: . 0-2. 1-2. 2-1. 2-0
0-2. . . . . .6 . .4 . .2 . .0
1-2. . . . . .4 . .6 . .3 . .1
2-1. . . . . .1 . .3 . .6 . .5
2-0. . . . . .0 . .1 . .4 . .7
Note that a team that goes 2-0 will give you the most points if you pick them to go 2-0 and almost as much if you pick them to go 2-1. (Connor, this note is for you.) This kind of encourages optimism, but it also provides some separation.

Tiebreaker

By luck we didn't need a tiebreaker last week, but we probably will this week. And it's this: Guess the average runs scored per game by Stony Brook in the Baton Rouge super regional. Fractional numbers are okay. (The number will likely be a third, half, two-thirds.) And try to pick a number DIFFERENT from everyone else's.

For some perspective: The Seawolves averaged 10.0 runs per game in the Coral Gables regional against Miami, Missouri State, and UCF. They have the highest winning percentage in the field (50-12, .806) and are ISR 67. Boyd gives them a 6.9% to beat LSU, which is better than St. John's odds against Arizona.

Sample ballot

Here's what a sample ballot would look like:
  • Ariz 2-0
  • Ore 0-2
  • Stan 1-2
  • UCLA 2-1
  • Stony Brook: 7.33
6/5/2012 10:04:31 PM
Topic:
Ha- Where are all the beavers?

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I thought the title of this thread was the answer to a Jeopardy question: "What were Riverduck's last words after he entered a gay biker's bar in Eugene?"
6/6/2012 11:24:51 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Super Regional Predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Okay, this is slow going.................

Florida Beaver wrote:
Ariz 2-0
Ore 2-0
Stan 1-2
ACLU 2-0

FB, I need a Stony Brook average score. Only five votes so far, and you are one of three with the same picks.
6/6/2012 11:46:56 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Super Regional Predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Riverduck wrote:
Uh.. sorry.. just got back from the Peacock..
Ariz 2-0
Ore 2-0]
Stan 1-2
ACLU 2-0
stoney.. 6.666 or something like that...
edited by Riverduck on 6/6/2012

Please pick a slightly different tiebreaker. That one has to be unique, and the demonic number is taken by an ACLU fan.
6/6/2012 11:50:10 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Super Regional Predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Are you just copying FB's picks? And his misspellings?
6/7/2012 6:33:13 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Super Regional Predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Ariz 2-0
Ore 2-0
Stan 2-1
UCLA 2-0

Stony Brook: 3-1/3

I don't think they'll score much in game one. Assuming they'll win game two, and make a close game three, otherwise I would predict a higher average. If they lose game two, I think it'll still be with a higher score than game one...could be a difference of 2 plus 4 or 1 plus 5.
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