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Dodger Matt - all messages by user

6/1/2012 8:40:04 PM
Topic:
Day one surprises

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
D1baseball.com calls the 21-inning affair the 2nd longest game in NCAA Tournament history.

Texas vs Boston College a couple years ago was the longest, 25 innings.
6/1/2012 10:02:33 PM
Topic:
PAC-12 comments

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Ducks dodged a howitzer shell there. Looked to me like Jellibelli was tagged out if not out of the baseline.
6/1/2012 10:08:12 PM
Topic:
Day one surprises

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Baylor and Miami are the biggest surprise losses today, and Oregon just skinned by Austin Peay.
6/1/2012 10:12:05 PM
Topic:
Regional strategy

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Why the heck did UCLA throw Plutko against Creighton? Confused
6/1/2012 10:27:51 PM
Topic:
Best day two matchups

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
These look like the top games on day two:
  • Clemson vs. South Carolina. Bitter archrivals in a regional matchup? Tops in my book.
  • CS Fullerton vs. Oregon. Horton's old team against Horton's new team. And with that come-from-behind nailbiter against Austin Peay, the Ducks didn't look that impressive.
  • Oregon State vs. LSU. Okay, homer pick here. Most people outside of Corvallis do not give the Beavers much of a chance against LSU behind Gausman, but I still think this will be a great game.
Another one that looks interesting: Oral Roberts and Dallas Baptist. After the Golden Eagles upset Baylor, either one of these teams could steal this regional with a critical win in game two.
6/1/2012 11:31:32 PM
Topic:
PAC-12 comments

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Arizona beat the crap out of Missouri. Fifteen hits twenty runs. That 7-run 4th inning was like batting practice. Easy 3-0 sweep for the Wildcats in their regional.
6/2/2012 12:07:05 AM
Topic:
Regional strategy

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Right, as you said, AZ threw Kurt Heyer, who went a full nine innings. And Stanford went with Mark Appel. I was just told there is little risk and big reward. Looked like the Ducks were facing one of those little risks until the ninth inning.

I wonder if Miami or Baylor saved their aces.
6/2/2012 10:07:54 AM
Topic:
Regional strategy

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
MiamiBaseball wrote:
Not sure why this is such a mystery. Most teams saved their aces yesterday. This isn't a new development this year.

Not mysterious. I posed it as a question, under what circumstances would you throw your ace or withhold him? The "conventional wisdom" I got was that you don't throw your ace in game one if you're a #1 seed; it's a no-brainer. No thinking is necessary, and the circumstances--who the 4 seed is, what their likely ace can do, who the #2 or #3 you expect to meet in game two is, how confident you are of your deuce, etc.--didn't seem to make much difference in that line of reasoning. Yet Savage, Lopez, Marquess, and it appears Steve Smith of Baylor and Jim Morris of Miami, all consulted their brains and made the contrary decision.

Of course, two of them lost even with their aces. So I guess the question is not all that trivial since the risk of losing is not totally averted when you do throw your ace, and brains are probably necessary after all.
6/2/2012 10:17:46 AM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Updated pitching matchup

Since it appears (as of 9am Saturday) that Dan Child will face Kevin Gausman, the numbers for Oregon State improve a bit (over pairing Wetzler with Gausman). Plus, LSU appears to have a better BA versus LHP, so I'm sure that has played into the decision.
 . . . . . . . . ERA. . . W-L . . OBA . . . WHIP
-------------------------------------------------
Kevin Gausman. . 2.84 . .10-1 . . 0.231 . . 1.10
Child, Dan . . . 2.80 . . 6-3 . . 0.271 . . 1.32
6/2/2012 11:53:11 AM
Topic:
Regional strategy

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Had some time to kill this morning, so I looked up all the #1 seeds. Looks like saving your ace is a more common strategy when you are a national seed (no surprise) and the 4 seed you face is going to be someone like Cornell or Bethune-Cupcake. Still, two of the national seeds did go with their ace (1-1 record), and three of those that didn't won a closely contested game.
. . . . . . . . Pitcher . . . . . Rot#. Notes
1 . Florida . . Jonathon Crawford . 3 . Easy shutout no-hitter, 4-0.
2 . UCLA. . . . Adam Plutko . . . . 1 . Won.
3 . Florida St. Scott Sitz. . . . . 3 . Broke 1-1 tie in 5th to win 2-1.
4 . Baylor. . . Josh Turly. . . . . 1 . Lost 4-2.
5 . Oregon. . . Jeff Gold . . . . . 3 . Scored two in b9 to win.
6 . UNC . . . . Hobbs Johnson . . . 3 . Easy win.
7 . LSU . . . . Aaron Nola. . . . . 2 . Broke tie late to win, 4-1.
8 . SoCar . . . Colby Holmes. . . . 3 . Easy shutout win, 7-0.
9 . Virginia. . Branden Kline . . . 1 . In progress.
10. Miami . . . Eric Erickson . . . 1 . Butts kicked by Stony Brook, 10-2.
11. Arizona . . Kurt Heyer. . . . . 1 . Kicked Mizzou's azzou, 15-3.
12. Purdue. . . Joe Haase . . . . . 1 . Won in 2 hrs 10 mins.
13. Rice. . . . John Simms. . . . . 3 . Came from behind in 7th, 3-2.
14. Stanford. . Mark Appel. . . . . 1 . Won.
15. Texas A&M . Michael Wacha . . . 1 . Won.
16. NC State. . Vance Williams. . . 4 . Easy 16-5 win.
Eight #1 seeds that went with their ace. 6-2 record.
Eight #1 seeds that saved their ace. 8-0 record, but four were close, late wins.
6/2/2012 1:07:57 PM
Topic:
Eugene Regional

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Well, I waited and waited. I thought some Duck fan on this board would have started a topic on the Eugene regional, but I guess there aren't any Duck baseball fans around, so I thought I'd start one for Beavers to comment on.

Saw a picture of that 9th inning tag that the home plate umpire got wrong that led to the Ducks' come-from-behind skin-of-the-duckbill victory that should have been an upset. Take a look.

Duck tagged out

"Ehhhhh! Don't touch me, you big meanie!"
edited by Dodger Matt on 6/2/2012
6/2/2012 2:22:08 PM
Topic:
College Baseball Regionals Video Schedule

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
A cool addition to the d1baseball.com daily scores page is the live video links. So you don't have to go searching all over the web for these links.
6/2/2012 2:43:30 PM
Topic:
Day two surprises

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Dayton was up on TCU 9-6 after six. Two very crooked innings later, it's TCU 19-9.
6/2/2012 2:55:44 PM
Topic:
Best day two matchups

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
SoCar takes a 2-0 lead on a 2-run homer by Adam Matthews.

One play in that game I definitely did not like. Clemson had bases loaded with nobody out. Batter hits a dribbler up the middle. Double-play that barely beat the runner at first, and the runners on second and third advanced. One run scored, right? No. Interference call on the guy sliding into second, whose left arm was up and brushed the shortstop's leg as the latter threw to first. Advancing runners go back. Two outs, no run scored, next batter grounds out (or flies out...can't remember).

I'm not a big fan of the way the "interference" rule is set up in the first place. If there is flagrant contact that prevents an out from being recorded--for example, if the guy in this scenario had jarred the SS and caused his throw to go akilter--then go ahead and call the runner at first out. But to send the other runners back? That is lame.

Some really good defensive plays so far.
6/2/2012 3:06:32 PM
Topic:
Pac-12...Softball

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
All three Pac-12 teams left are in elimination games today. ASU vs. LSU, and Oregon vs. Cal. I kind of expected Cal and ASU to be playing from the winner's side, but now they'll have to play through the loser's side for a chance to face each other.
6/2/2012 4:11:02 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Some analyses of the Baton Rouge regional and a video link. Cheers.

From Kendall

The favorite: LSU
Top pitcher: RHP Kevin Gausman, LSU
Top hitter: OF Raph Rhymes, LSU
Top prospect, 2012 draft: RHP Kevin Gausman

After failing to reach the NCAA postseason last year, there might not have been a more motivated program entering the 2012 campaign. The Tigers have been on a mission the entire season and now are expected to compete for the national title. LSU enters the weekend hitting .295 as a team with one of the nation's elite hitters, outfielder Raph Rhymes, leading the way. Rhymes is hitting a team-best .459 with three homers and 50 RBIs. Astonishingly, he also has a .513 on-base percentage. Outfielder Mason Katz is hitting .335 with 11 homers and 48 RBIs, while shortstop Austin Nola is hitting .308 with four homers and 38 RBIs ... Pitching-wise, the the Tigers have one of the nation's best in Kevin Gausman, potentially the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming MLB draft. Meanwhile, fellow starters Ryan Eades and Aaron Nola hope to continue where they left off last week, while Nick Goody, who has a 2.67 ERA in 30 1/3 innings of work, leads the way out of the bullpen.

It has been a rather strange year for the Beavers. Some weeks they look like a national title contender; others they look the complete opposite. Fortunately for coach Pat Casey, it looks like his team is playing exceptionally well at exactly the right time. The Beavers enter the Baton Rouge Regional hitting .283 as a club with shortstop Tyler Smith leading the way, hitting .350 with a home run and 34 RBIs. Freshman outfielder Michael Conforto has made a seamless transition to the Division I level and is hitting .343 with 13 homers and 71 RBIs, while third baseman Ryan Dunn has been a big-time hitter at times this season, batting .299 with seven homers and 34 RBIs ... Pitching-wise, the Beavers have an outstanding freshman in Jace Fry, who has a 2.48 ERA in 83 1/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, Dan Child has a 2.75 ERA in 101 1/3 innings, while Ben Wetzler has a 3.39 ERA in 93 innings of work. Bullpen-wise, keep an eye on Scott Schultz (2.92), Matt Boyd (3.71) and Tony Bryant (4.03). OSU definitely has the arms to win this tourney, but what about the bats?


Aaron Fitt
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/college/postseason/regional/2012/2613491.html


A year after missing the SEC tournament and getting snubbed for a regional berth, Louisiana State rode one of the nation's premier pitching staffs to the SEC regular-season title this spring. LSU will start freshman Aaron Nola (6-4, 3.93) in the opener, and coach Paul Mainieri has expressed absolute faith in Nola's poise in big spots. He'll pound the strike zone (73-6 K-BB mark in 76 innings) and let hitters put the ball in play, but he also has swing-and-miss stuff—a great combination. That means ace Kevin Gausman (10-1, 2.84, 125-24 K-BB in 108 IP) will take the mound Saturday, and he has the stuff to dominate anybody. His 94-98 mph fastball, plus changeup and improving slider make him a lock top-10 overall pick on Monday. Fellow sophomore righty Ryan Eades (5-2, 3.36) also has a plus fastball and filthy power curve, but he hasn't been as consistent down the stretch, and his ability to turn in quality outings will be key for LSU to win a national championship. The bullpen is deep and balanced, with quality options from the left side (Chris Cotton and Brett Bonvillain) and the right side (closer Nick Goody, who works at 90-93 with a very good power breaking ball, plus Joey Bourgeois, Nick Rumbelow and Kurt McCune). The Tigers are competitive up and down the lineup, though Mason Katz (.335, 11 HR) is the only real home run threat. The nation's leading hitter, Raph Rhymes (.459/.513/.555, 50 RBI) teams with Katz to form a stellar heart of the order. LSU is extremely strong up the middle, with rock-solid veterans at catcher (Ty Ross) and shortstop (Austin Nola), leading a defense that fields at a .980 clip (fourth in the nation).

Oregon State's young team gelled down the stretch, winning six of its final seven series, including sets against UCLA, Stanford and a season-ending sweep of Oregon. Of course, all of those marquee series wins were at home, where the Beavers are 18-6. They are more vulnerable on the road (15-11), and how their young players respond in pressure situations in front of 10,000 raucous Cajuns could determine their fortunes this weekend. The Beavers are blessed with two power lefthanders in their weekend rotation in sophomore Ben Wetzler (7-2, 3.39) and freshman Jace Fry (5-3, 2.48), though neither showed plus velocity last week against Oregon. They also have two quick-armed righthanded starters in Dan Child (6-3, 2.75) and Taylor Starr (5-2, 3.80). The plan is for Fry to start the opener against Belmont and Child (who works in the 90-94 range) to start Saturday, but the Beavers have the depth to make a run through the loser's bracket if necessary. Closer Tony Bryant (5-2, 4.03) and lefthanded stopper Matt Boyd (4-0, 3.71) have had up-and-down seasons, but sophomore righty Scott Schultz (2.92, 2 SV) has blossomed into a key bullpen anchor thanks to a 90-92 mph fastball that runs, cuts or sinks, and a solid slider/changeup combination. The OSU lineup is more powerful than it has been in years, thanks in large part to the addition of Pac-12 freshman of the year Michael Conforto (.343/.435/.603, 13 HR, 71 RBI). Veterans Ryan Dunn (7 HR) and Danny Hayes (5 HR) also bring some pop. OSU's breakout star is shortstop Tyler Smith, who leads the team in hitting (.350) and is fielding at a steady .953 clip. The Beavers are characteristically strong on defense (.977 as a team) and characteristically pesky up and down the lineup. They'll test opposing third basemen with plenty of bunts (they rank seventh nationally with 78 sacrifice bunts on the season).

Some guy named Banks Woodrick

Early Analysis and Prediction

Could College World Series favorite LSU be knocked off in their own NCAA Regional? Against Oregon State, it might happen. This regional is the Tigers' to lose, but they'll still have to play some good baseball. LSU (49-16) won the SEC regular season, but went 1-2 in the SEC tournament. They should have no trouble with ULM (31-28) on Friday night. The Tigers have a lot to worry about in Oregon State (38-18), who plays three-seed Belmont (39-22) first. Oregon State finished second in the Pac-12, and boasts a series sweep of Oregon, and series wins against Stanford and UCLA. This team is very dangerous and playing with a ton of confidence.

LSU is still the smart pick here, especially since Oregon State won't have the arms that Mississippi State did in the SEC Tournament. The Beavers, though, will likely give the Tigers a great game on Saturday before being eliminated on Sunday.

Lastly: A great video of OSU pitchers Matt Boyd and Ben Wetzler talking about the regional.
6/2/2012 4:19:23 PM
Topic:
Best day two matchups

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
This Clemson-SoCar game is pretty darn good. Tigers up 4-3 in the bottom of the 8th.
6/2/2012 4:55:16 PM
Topic:
Best day two matchups

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Great play at the plate to prevent the Cocks from wining in the bottom of the 9th. Doesn't sound like there are many fans here watching that game, but SoCar tied it at 4 with a single to center, and on the play, a second runner tried to win it, scoring from second. The throw was bad, but the catcher swiped at the runner, who went far out of his way to avoid the tag, and missed the plate. They both made a second attempt, and the catcher got him.

Best game of the day. Extra innings.
6/2/2012 5:42:00 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
This is not the first time that Mike Parker has said Kevin Gausman ALMOST chose to become an Oregon State Beaver. I had never heard this before this series, but how sad that we did lose this guy. Well, my typical response to this kind of thing is, let's beat this guy and make him wish he had chosen differently.

Go Beavs!
6/2/2012 5:46:08 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Florida Beaver wrote:
Nice to find out from Banks that Oregon State ended up 2nd in the Pac-12. I guess all those other guys were wrong having us coming in at #4.

You know, that's funny. I don't know how many times I read that article and it went right past me.
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