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Dodger Matt - all messages by user

5/31/2012 1:08:12 PM
Topic:
Regional strategy

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
MiamiBaseball wrote:
It's a no brainer. If you're the #1 seed, you throw your ace on Saturday. The reward is much greater than the risk.

How many 1 seeds are going to do this? I bet Stanford does, facing Fresno State, who already beat their ace once this year.

As for the L/R matchup with LSU, Fry and Wetzler are both lefties. And I read that LSU hits lefties at a +.015 (+.025 maybe?) better clip than righties.
5/31/2012 9:04:26 PM
Topic:
My take on the regionals

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Here are my opinions, mostly just for discussion purposes. Not delving into the details of which team has the deepest bullpen or who’s better at fielding or batting, or any of that. Just looking at high level team numbers and running some analysis. Feel free to correct me if you take issue.

Hardest regionals (most even competition)
  • Miami: Lowest #1 (Miami), #2 (UCF) and #3 (Missouri State) are nearly equal to #1, third-highest #4 (Stony Brook).
  • Houston: #1 Rice and #2 Arkansas are almost equal, #3 (Sam Houston St.) is decent.
  • College Station: #1 (aTm), #2 (TCU), and #3 (Ole Miss) are nearly equal 2 seeds.
Dangerous pairs
  • Baton Rouge: #1 LSU and #2 Oregon State.
  • Eugene: #1 Oregon and #2 CS Fullerton.
  • Los Angeles: #1 UCLA and #2 San Diego.
  • Houston: #1 Rice and #2 Arkansas.
Cakewalks
  • Chapel Hill: UNC gets a #2 (ECU) that is practically a 4 seed, plus a four seed (#3 St. John), and a team that should be a 6 seed (#4 Cornell).
  • Tucson: Arizona is borderline national seed good. Sure, they had trouble with NMSU (#2), but they are a low three seed. Louisville (#3) and Missouri (#4) are good, but definitely four seed quality.
  • Gainesville: #1 Florida has a weak #2 (GaTech), and the third worst #4.
Most balanced
  • Tallahassee: Each team is about right for its seeding (IMO) But why did #4 UAB get in the dance? Stupid conference tournaments....
Weakest quartet
  • Raleigh: If NC State, Vanderbilt, UNC Wilmington, and Sacred Heart were to play every other quartet of teams, they would get beaten 1 through 4 by nearly all other regionals.
Strongest quartet
  • Palo Alto: Stanford and Pepperdine are very good, even though they aren’t the best 1-2 punch, and Michigan State is a weak #3, but Fresno State as a #4 makes up for it.
Gayest super regional “marriage”
  • Eugene, OR do you take Gary, IN to be your awful...: Did the selection committee “evolve” when they saw these two cities’ names and decide to pair them up?
5/31/2012 9:14:52 PM
Topic:
National Predictions: Regionals

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Florida
North Carolina St.
UCLA
Texas A&M
Florida State
Stanford
Baylor
Arkansas
Oregon
Purdue
North Carolina
Arizona
Oregon State
Miami
South Carolina
Virginia
5/31/2012 10:54:00 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Regional Predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Seems like a lot of folks have similar picks. I probably should have asked for a tiebreaker of some sort. Oh well. I was going to go one way, then I decided to change one pick so I would not have the same picks as another voter.

Ariz 3-0
Ore 3-0
OSU 3+
Stan 3-0
UCLA 3-0

Honestly, the only one I'm thinking will be tough is OSU over LSU, although there are possibilities for an upset in each of the other four.
6/1/2012 12:29:18 AM
Topic:
OSU vs Belmont - Streaming?

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
It is for the lucky Beavers with Beaver Nation Online, apparently.
6/1/2012 12:34:39 AM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
My read of this interview with Pat Casey is that Jace Fry will throw against Belmont and Wetzler Saturday.
6/1/2012 12:51:18 AM
Topic:
Pac-12 Regional Predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Here's an interesting stat. Although Oregon State is getting the fewest votes to advance in this thread and the Beavers finished tied with Stanford for 4th in the conference, guess who has the best record against the other four teams in the playoffs?
  • OSU 8-4: Beat Stanford, UCLA, Oregon.
  • Arizona 7-5: Beat Stanford, OSU.
  • Oregon 6-6: Beat Stanford, UCLA, Arizona.
  • UCLA 5-7: Beat Arizona
  • Stanford 4-8: Beat UCLA
6/1/2012 11:03:50 AM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I think the point is they are more confident with Benny, but they were probably thinking of the Jorge Reyes strategy in the Charlottesville regional a few years ago. Wetzler is our "veteran" starter, and he has pitched (well, I might add) in postseason play on the road. He has been our #1 guy all year. And even though his numbers don't appear to be as good as some of the other pitchers, he has still fought and found a way to beat teams with better pitchers on paper. Look at his performance in game one of the Civil War. I'm hoping Fry goes 7-plus today. But I'd be just as happy if Wetzler goes 5 or 6 against LSU and leaves with a lead or a tie. Or even a one-run deficit, I would say.

Anyway, those are my conjectures.
6/1/2012 12:44:15 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Ooh. Holding Wetzler for game 3. Dan Child slated to pitch game 2. Interesting. They must like the RHP against LSU (assuming today's a win).
6/1/2012 3:27:42 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Beavers win 2-1. I was expecing a low-scoring, one-run victory. Just glad it turned out that way.

I'm a bit worried about Conforto too.
6/1/2012 3:28:52 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Oh yeah. I want to return the favor of the LSU fans there for this game who were rooting for Belmont:

Go Warhawks!
6/1/2012 3:34:45 PM
Topic:
Day one surprises

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
So far, Mississippi State getting shut out 5-0 by Samford. MSU was allegedly the next #1 seed behind Miami?
6/1/2012 5:01:43 PM
Topic:
My take on the regionals

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Here are my opinions, mostly just for discussion purposes.....

Sadly, fail.
6/1/2012 5:05:02 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
That's exactly what I was hoping for. Then they'd likely have to burn Gausman on game two anyway, against Belmont in the first elimination game. I'm sure it won't work out that way, but one can hope!
6/1/2012 5:54:08 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
"OSU won its first game when scoring two runs or less ... The Beavers are 1-11 when scoring two runs or less."

They better score more than two against the Tigers tomorrow. (Or the Warhawks. Go ULM!)
6/1/2012 5:59:22 PM
Topic:
Day one surprises

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Extra innings. In the 13th now....

So who will be the first #1 seed to lose a game? Rice is tied with Prairie View A&M 2-2 in the 5th. They are one of two I am picking to lose their regionals, but I was expecting them to lose to Arkansas. If they aren't the first #1 to lose a game, I'm gonna go with Miami.
6/1/2012 6:54:17 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Does anyone have a link to a free video stream of the LSU-ULM game? I have found a free audio stream, but I thought there would be more video streams available.
6/1/2012 7:16:42 PM
Topic:
Day one surprises

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Kent State takes a 6-5 lead in the top of the 18th! Three outs away.
6/1/2012 8:10:15 PM
Topic:
Day one surprises

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Kentucky evened it at 6-6 in the bottom of the 18th and they are now in the 21ST INNING. Don't know what the record is in the super regional era, but this must be getting close.

Miami is behind Stony Brook 6-2 in the 8th. But it looks like Miami got beat getting beaten by a 4 seed by Baylor, who was beaten by Oral Roberts 4-2. Baylor, the first #1 to lose a game. Miami will probably end up second.
6/1/2012 8:29:34 PM
Topic:
Day one surprises

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
LSU will be home team tomorrow, but not for their third game if they win tomorrow night. The 2-0 winner plays visitor for its third game and, if they lose that one, will be home team for the final game.

Tony Brook is up on the Canes 9-2 in the top of the 9th. I SOOO want to beat LSU. If we do, we're in Omaha.
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