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Dodger Matt - all messages by user

4/26/2011 10:10:00 PM
Topic:
BEAVERS: Whom to root for (actually, against)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I know Kendall says Oregon State is nearly a lock for a national seed at this point, provided there is no meltdown, but we are not within the magic eightball of Rat's Patootie Index elitism yet (we're #10), and a quick glance at Boyd's RPI Needs chart says we don't have a shot right now even if we run the table and go 18-0.

I think it highly unlikely that we wouldn't make it with that record, but then again, I don't think it likely that we do go 18-0 the rest of the Pac-10 season. So what's left?

Root for the enemies of our enemies! Here's a quick hit list of the teams most likely to fall out of contention with a few losses and allow OSU to inch upward. (This all presumes a good weekend against UCLA. And Cal. And USC....)
Team to beat              RPI  Record to stay within RPI-8
Arizona State               3  14-4
North Carolina 6 8-6
Georgia Tech 7 12-3
Florida State 8 9-5
Texas A&M 9 14-2
Top one's easy, even though they have the top RPI in this list. If OSU wins the Pac-10, and we don't make the RPI-8 list, the committee will have a hard time giving ASU a national seed with our head-to-head sweep. Nonetheless, a little distance between us and them in the Pac-10 standings will make it easier for the Beav to get the lone Pac-10 national seed.

UNC is gonna be tough, especially since two of the others on the list are in the same conference, and SOMEBODY has to win those games. Best hope: Losses to ECU, Maryland (3), and a sweep by UVA (a virtual lock anyway).

Georgia Tech only needs to lose four, so we're hoping for at least nine: A rare upset sweep by Illinois-Chicago (yeah, I can dream), a sweep by Clemson, and a season-ending sweep by Virginia Tech.

Florida State is probably the easiest of the ACC teams to peel off this list. They have three at Miami, three with Central Florida, three at NC State (who took two of three from UNC), and three with Clemson. Sayonara, Seminoles.

aTm lost tonight in 12 innings to Sam Houston State, so we only need a couple more losses, but we are shooting for at least six. Unfortunately, their schedule doesn't look that tough except for Texas the last weekend of the season. Perhaps, if we're wishing, we can wish for Dallas Baptist (3) and Missouri (3) to deal the death blow before the Aggies roll into Austin.
4/27/2011 9:21:27 PM
Topic:
BEAVERS: Whom to root for (actually, against)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Duckies lose to Portland again. UP has UO's number.

Not that Oregon is anywhere near the schools on this list that Oregon State fans should root against for national seed purposes, but it's hard not to root against them, especially when they play another Beaver State school. Too bad the Ducks can't play Portland State....
4/28/2011 12:03:27 AM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 11 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Two excellent series this week, two others that should be competitive, and the bottom series, a rivalry series—the Apple Cup! Good stuff in week 11.

This week's games (numbers are ISRs as of 4/27):
  • 7 OSU at 24 UCLA
  • 13 Stan at 4 ASU
  • 56 Ore at 17 Cal
  • 59 USC at 27 Ariz
  • 169 UW at 48 WSU
Oregon State at UCLA headlines the week, #1 vs. #3. In truth, UCLA probably should be #2 (absent that 9th inning four-run bullpen collapse in game 3 versus Stanford). This should be a contest between the only two teams in the Pac-10 that have not lost a series yet this year. Still, it does feature a very highly touted Friday-Saturday pitching duo (Gerrit and Cole) versus two other extremely successful starters (Gaviglio and Osich) who are backed by a much more solid bullpen. This series has serious national seed implications for the Beavers, who were never seeded higher than a regional number one even in their back-to-back NC years.

A close second series this week is the Cardinal at ASU. Comparing ISRs, one might say this should be the higher matchup, but Stanford's ISR appears somewhat inflated from nonconference games compared to how they have played in conference. Stanford pulled out a miracle win in the rubber game against UCLA to salvage a series victory. But they are 5-7 in conference play, below USC. This team still is virtually guaranteed a postseason berth, but can they beat a top 5 team--on the road—that has swept three conference opponents?

Oregon showed a little spark last weekend by taking 2 of 3 from a very good Arizona team, for their first conference series win. Cal is moving in the opposite direction. After starting 5-1 in conference, the Bears dropped two of their next three series, going 4-5. The Ducks have had difficulty getting the offense going this year, but Horton's team is 9-5 in the Golden State. And they know they have no margin for error.

USC is the feel-good surprise team of 2011. Following Chad Kreuter's departure, interim head coach Frank Cruz has made a difference already. Picked by the coaches to finish 9th this year (one spot behind OSU...LOL!), the Trojans are parked comfortably in 5th, with a legitimate chance to rise higher. Arizona is hard to figure out. They've lost series to three superior teams (OSU, ASU, UCLA) plus an inferior team (Oregon), but they've beaten Cal and have won at least one from all of their conference opponents. They have the edge playing at home against a lower ranked team, but USC has also taken at least one from each opponent. Close series?

And finally, the Apple Cup series. I will say this at every opportunity I have: Rivalry series should be the last series for each team of the conference year. These two teams sit at the bottom of the standings, and the only bragging rights either might have at the end of the year might be who beat whom in the Apple Cup. Give a not-so-bad but disappointing Wazzu team the edge playing at home against a not-so-good Washington team.

The reminders:
  • Vote for the team you expect to win and whether the results will be 3-0 or 2-1.
  • Pick teams in the exact order posted. This makes it easier for me to tabulate.
  • Use the team abbreviations listed in the sample below. (This means NO to "Furd" "UA" "WASH", etc.)
  • You can change your picks up until first pitch of the first game.
  • There are no prizes. We play for glory.
Points are awarded in the following manner:

Pick . . Result . . Pts.
3-0 . . . 3-0 . . . . . 6
. . . . . . 2-1 . . . . . 3
. . . . . . 1-2 . . . . . 1
. . . . . . 0-3 . . . . . 0

2-1 . . . 3-0 . . . . . 3
. . . . . . 2-1 . . . . . 4
. . . . . . 1-2 . . . . . 2
. . . . . . 0-3 . . . . . 1

A sample poll would look like this:

UCLA 2-1
Stan 2-1
Ore 2-1
Ariz 3-0
WSU 3-0
4/28/2011 10:24:28 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 11 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
borgguy wrote:
if i recall correctly OSU was #8 nationally in 05 when they went 0-2 at CWS

I think you're right. But I believe I still felt slighted at that, since we were ranked higher. C'est la vie.

ASU74, is that a devil girl smilie? Cute.
4/29/2011 10:27:15 AM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 11 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Always have to double-check when I vote for a sweep, but I'm going for two this week.

OSU 2-1
ASU 3-0
Cal 2-1
Ariz 2-1
WSU 3-0
4/29/2011 12:41:56 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 11 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Pick analysis:
  • Top vote getter this week is Wazzu, a 17-1 favorite (with 10 sweeps) over in-state rival Washington.
  • Next is ASU, 14-4 over Stanford with 5 sweeps, followed closely by Cal, 14-4 over Oregon with 9 sweeps.
  • OSU is a 13-5 favorite (2 sweeps) over UCLA, but if you take out all the Beaver fan votes, it becomes a much closer UCLA 5-4 advantage (with OSU still getting 1 sweep).
  • Closest series this week is Arizona 12-6 with 2 sweeps over USC. But if you take out all the Arizona and USC fans, it's Arizona 12-6 with 2 sweeps.
BTW, here's an overview of the fans who have played this season. (We need more diversity...and that's the only time you'll ever hear those words coming from me.)
  • OSU: 13
  • None: 9
  • ASU: 4
  • Stanford: 1
  • Oregon: 1
Last year we had several more Devils, three Cards, three Ducks, a couple Cougs, couple Trojans, a Huskie, and a Wildcat. Never had a Bear sighting.
4/29/2011 10:45:30 PM
Topic:
BEAVERS: Whom to root for (actually, against)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Arizona State               Beat Stanford 12-10
North Carolina Idle
Georgia Tech Lost to Clemson 4-2
Florida State Beat Miami 6-5
Texas A&M Lost to Missouri 10-9
4/29/2011 11:43:07 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 11 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Day one

Oregon State 7, UCLA 5: UCLA got on the board first with a one-out triple by Beau Amaral, who then scored on a sac fly. The Beavers left runners in scoring position in each of the first three innings, twice leaving the bases loaded, but they only managed to score one run. The Bruins got that run back in the third when the usually consistent Gaviglio gave up three walks (one intentional). UCLA scored in the 4th on a bases-loaded grounder off the pitcher’s leg and a throwing error that allowed two more to score, taking a 5-1 lead. In the 5th, the Beavers loaded the bases for the third time, with two doubles and a walk. Carter Bell, with a bad right leg, ripped a triple to center to make the score 5-4. Ryan Dunn singled Bell home to even the game 5-5. After giving up another single, his 10th hit of the night, Cole was lifted for Mitchell Beacom, who hit Garret Nash to load the bases yet again. Ryan Barnes hit a sac fly to score Ryan Dunn to give OSU the lead. Then Beacom, on a first-and-third steal by OSU, balked the runners, giving Oregon State a 7-5 lead. In an uncharacteristic game, Sam Gaviglio (8-1), who came in averaging 9.1 strikeouts and 1.4 walks per 9 innings, walked seven and struck out none tonight over 6 IP. Gerrit Cole (4-5) went 4.1 IP and gave up 7 runs, all earned. Tony Bryant earned his seventh save.

Oregon State leads series, 1-0.

Stanford jumped to a 3-0 lead in the third on four straight two-out singles. ASU created their own two-out rally with three back-to-back singles, making the score 3-2. The Cardinal strung three more singles together in the 4th and scored one on a passed ball to take a 4-2 lead. ASU got that run back in the bottom half, then too the first lead of the game in the 7th on a 2 RBI triple by Riccio Torrez, who then scored on a sac fly. Stanford got one back in the 8th with a single, single, GIDP, single. But the Devils exploded for six in the 8th on a double, single, walk, walk, single, single, a walk, and a 2 RBI single by Matt Newman (who had led off the inning with a double), to take a 12-5 lead. Stanford made it interesting in the 9th scoring five on an Austin Wilson two-run homer and a Zach Jones three-run homer.

Arizona State leads series, 1-0.

Cal 2, Oregon 1: Oregon scored in the 1st on a walk, single, and sac fly. Cal tied it in the 2nd on s two-out Mitch Delfino solo homer, and that’s the way it stayed until the 9th. Scott McGough, who got the third out in the 8th relieving Tyler Anderson, walked the first batter in the 9th and gave up a single. Kellen Moen replaced McGough and surrendered a game-ending double to the only batter he faced, Mich Theofanopoulos.

Cal leads series, 1-0.

Arizona4, USC 3 (10 innings): USC scored two in the 1st on four singles. Arizona evened it with two unearned runs in the 5th on a walk, a single, and two throwing errors. USC took the lead again in the 7th on a hit batsman, a walk, a wild pitch, and a sac fly. Arizona tied it at 3 in the 8th. In the 10th, the Wildcats scored on a hit batsman, sac bunt, and single to win the game.

Arizona leads series, 1-0.

Wazzu 5, Washington 2: Taylor Ard doubled in the 2nd, and Matt Argyropoulos got the Cougs on the board with a tw0-run homer. UW got on the board in the 3rd on a walk, HPB, and single. Wazzu scored again in the 4th on a solo shot by Derek Jones, then two more in the 5th on a bases-loaded single by Brett Jacobs. The Huskies scored again in the 7th on two singles and a Joe Meggs double. Washington outhit Washington State 10-6. Adam Conley pitched 7.2 innings, giving up two runs (earned) to even his record at 5-5.

Wazzu leads series 1-0.
4/30/2011 3:55:10 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 11 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Josh Osich is pitching more like Sam Gaviglio today than Sam did yesterday. He seems to have better control than he usually does and has matched Trevor Bauer in terms of strikeouts.
4/30/2011 4:44:30 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 11 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Jinxed it? Are you a Bruin fan? Osich still has a no-hitter going through 7.
4/30/2011 4:57:26 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 11 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Okay, electronic jinx notwithstanding, Josh Osich is three outs away from being named Pac-10 pitcher of the week and national pitcher of the week. A no-hitter against UCLA, with Trevor Bauer on the mound for the Bruins. Nothing could be better....
4/30/2011 5:06:27 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 11 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
AWESOME!

No hitter for Josh Osich!
4/30/2011 5:18:35 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 11 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Did you hear Mike Parker avoid any mention of the no-no? "And Josh Osich is one strike away...."

From WHAT, Mike?
4/30/2011 5:39:35 PM
Topic:
Josh Osich - No Hitter

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Cool Cool Smoke
4/30/2011 5:42:59 PM
Topic:
Josh Osich - No Hitter

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Honestly, I have thought for the last couple years that Sammy G was the most likely candidate to be OSU's next no-hitter thrower, but I am very happy that Osich, after sitting on the bench all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery and showing team spirit when he couldn't actively contribute, got the Beavers' fourth no-hitter of all time.
4/30/2011 5:45:45 PM
Topic:
Josh Osich - No Hitter

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
1whoknows wrote:
What a class act. Mike Parker just said he saw Bauer's father congratulate Josh Osich. He said it's not often he sees a pitcher out-pitch his son.

Yes, that was cool. But imagine this: If Keyes had not driven in those two runs, this game would have continued. Bauer is an inhuman robotic 300-pitch-per-outing machine, and the only thing that stops him is the final score after nine innings. If the score had been 0-0, they'd have gone 10, 11, 12....
4/30/2011 6:35:27 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 11 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Florida Beaver wrote:
Okay, So is the rest of the country east of the rockies going to give the Beavs proper notice? Some already do, most don't (read won't).

DM, how do you think this will change the RPI for us? Will it make any diff?
edited by Florida Beaver on 4/30/2011

Absofreakinlutely. Winning our fifth straight conference series and beating ASU, Stanford, Arizona, and now UCLA puts us in the driver's seat. With Cal (at home), UW, USC (at home), and Oregon left, we would have to melt down spectacularly not to get a national seed at this point. I also see the teams that are currently projected ahead of us by the east-cast-biased outlets falling one game at a time below us. My guess right now, given the schedule and our competitors' schedules, is we finish around national seed #5 or #6 at worst and perhaps as high as #3.
4/30/2011 6:47:16 PM
Topic:
Josh Osich - No Hitter

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
OpihiMan wrote:
Kendall is going to receive alot of harassment if the Beavs aren't top 5 after this week....if not higher.

I think we easily jump Texas and Texas A&M.
4/30/2011 8:42:12 PM
Topic:
Kendall time to eat crow!

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
No, because Oregon State has dominated UCLA. Whatever national seed aTm was going to get is now OSU's. If SMiss is going to get one, y'all will have to beat someone else. I recommend Flardy State.
4/30/2011 10:45:36 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 11 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Day two

Oregon State 2, UCLA 0: Oregon State's Josh Osich bested the nation's best pitcher, Trevor Bauer, in an awesome Pac-10 pitching matchup. Bauer went 9.0 IP, 15 SO, 2 BB, 4 hits, 2 runs (earned). But Osich went 9.0 IP, 13 SO, 1 BB, 0 hits, 0 runs. That's right: ZERO HITS. No Hitter!

Osich's only blemish was a 4th inning 3-2 walk to Dean Espy. Osich faced one batter over the minimum: 28. Offensively, the hero for the Beavers was subfreshman Kavin Keyes, who drove in the Beavers' two runs with an 0-2 two-out double in the 6th. Keyes, filling in for the injured Carter Bell, who was yesterday's offensive hero, also completed two great defensive plays at third base to prevent the Bruins from notching a hit. The last time OSU pitched a no-hitter was the opening game of 2007, OSU's second straight championship season, when four pitchers combined to blank Hawaii-Hilo (which has since dropped to D2).

Oregon State's other no-hitters? Apparently four total: Another combined game, in 1967, when Cleve Benson, Eric Selburg, and Jack Humphrey beat Portland 11-0. And Fred Gallagher tossed the Beavers' only other complete game no-no, going the distance in a 1-0 win over Montana in 1947. None of those three was as great as today's defeat of the #19 team in the nation and the college pitcher many claim to be the best in the nation. Congrats to Josh Osich and OSU!

Oregon State leads series 2-0.

Stanford 6, Arizona State 4: Danny Sandbrink pitched a complete game for the victory, striking out 9 and walking 3, while giving up four runs, only one earned. Austin Wilson, Kenny Diekroeger, and stephen Piscotty all had two hits for the Cardinal. This game was marked by five total errors, three by Stanford and two by ASU. Kramer Champlin (7.0 IP) took the loss for ASU.

Series tied 1-1.

Oregon 4, Cal 3: Andrew Mendenhall hit a two-run homer in the 2nd to put the Ducks on the board, and Oregon scored two more in the 3rd on Shawn Peterson’s 2 RBI double. Cal got one back in the 4th when Tony Renda led off with a double and was sac-flied home. The Bears scored two more in the 6th. Madison Boer went 7.1 IP for the win. Shaggy-haired Justin Jones went 7.0 IP in the losing effort. Kellen Moen earned his seventh save. Oregon’s Peterson finished 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs; Mendenhall went 1 or 3 with 2 RBIs.

Series tied 1-1.

Arizona 20, USC 4: The Wildcats exploded like Montezuma’s revenge on the Trojans with a 7-run 4th and a 6-run 5th, plus two 3-run innings in the 7th and 8th. They definitely had the runs. USC could not find a stopper who could cork the flow, throwing five pitchers over the first 8.1 innings who all gave up at least one run. Robert Refsnyder led the Cats with a 2 for 45 5 RBI effort. Bryce Ortega went 4 for 5 with 2 RBIs.

Arizona leads series 2-0.

Washington State 11, Washington 6: The Cougars scored more runs on the Huskies than any other Pac-10 team than USC, putting four crooked numbers on the =scoreboard in the first five innings. Patrick Claussen led the Cougs at the plate going 4 for 5 with 5 RBIs and 4 runs scored. Derek Jones was also 4 for 5, with 2 RBIs.

Wazzu lead s series 2-0.
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