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Dodger Matt - all messages by user

5/28/2012 6:27:48 PM
Topic:
Memorial Day Reflection

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Amen.
5/28/2012 8:52:31 PM
Topic:
Road to Omaha set (The full bracket)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
We have a fair chance. With luck we will only need to beat them twice, meaning that second game is critical. If we can take that one, we'll have two chances to beat them one more time. Then...one of the "bad" things in Kendall's review....
    "Miami as a host … and especially a No. 1 seed -- We’re still trying to completely figure out the thinking behind the Hurricanes as a host and No. 1 seed. To say the least, Kallander and the committee didn’t give a legitimate-enough reason as to why the Hurricanes are at home in the first round. The Hurricanes reached the ACC tournament title game, but they put together a lackluster regular season resume. The ‘Canes finished fifth in the ACC standings. Furthermore, UM went 7-13 vs. RPI Top 25, 14-19 vs. RPI Top 50 and 23-20 vs. RPI Top 100. Kallander also pointed out that Miami played a tougher nonconference schedule than Kentucky, another potential No. 1 seed. However, Kallander also failed to point out the ‘Canes played a home-heavy nonconference schedule, something the committee hammered LSU for last season. It's obvious by this decision the committee has yet to decide -- does it penalize or reward teams that play home-heavy nonconference schedules? They haven't figured that one out."
5/28/2012 10:03:26 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Regional Predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Postseason predictions are a little different from weekly series picks. Because the teams play a double-elimination format, there are more distinct possibilities than the standard 0-3, 1-2, 2-1, and 3-0.

We know that every regional will have a 0-2 team, and a 1-2 team. But the other two could be 2-2, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, or 4-1. Too many to try to predict and not worth the distinction.

So I've cut the choices down to the following:
  • 3-0: The team sweeps and advances.
  • 3+: The team finishes 4-1 or 3-1 (advances), or 3-2 and is eliminated.
  • 2-2: The team is out.
  • 1-2: The team is out.
  • 0-2: The team is out.
The 3+ team will be the rarest, and it doesn't mean the team will advance. This team could lose one of its first two games and have to play through the loser's bracket, taking at least one from the 2-0 winner's bracket team before falling (3-2) or beating them a second time (4-1).This team could also be the winner's bracket team (2-0) that loses its first game to the loser's bracket team then wins the final game (3-1).

Note that if the winner's bracket (2-0) team loses both of the final games to the loser's bracket team, it becomes a 2-2 team.

Correctly picking a 3+ team is tricky, so we give it a slight edge in points over the standard 0-2, 1-2, and 2-2 picks.
To make it simpler, think in these terms:
  • 3-0: The team is so good it wins three straight.
  • 3+: The team is inconsistent or faces a tough team in its bracket, and it is strong enough to lose one and force a second game for the regional crown.
  • 2-2: The team is good but not great.
  • 1-2: The team will enjoy a weekend vacation at the school's expense.
  • 0-2: The team is Sacred Heart, Let's Go Peay, Creighton, Manhattan, or Bethune-Cupcake.
Here's what the points matrix looks like:

You pick: . .0-2 . 1-2 . 2-2 . 3-0 . 3+
----------------------------------------
0-2 . . . . .4 . . .3 . . 2 . . 0 . . 0
1-2 . . . . .3 . . .4 . . 3 . . 1 . . 1
2-2 . . . . .1 . . .2 . . 4 . . 2 . . 2
3-0 . . . . .0 . . .1 . . 2 . . 6 . . 4
3+ .. . . . .1 . . .2 . . 3 . . 3 . . 5
Here are the regionals and their participants. The first two numbers are ISR and RPI. The last number is win-loss record.

  • 8 14 Arizona 38-17
  • 44 34 New Mexico State 35-22
  • 58 42 Louisville 39-20
  • 72 74 Missouri 32-26
  • 3 6 Oregon 42-17
  • 15 20 Cal State Fullerton 35-19
  • 41 49 Indiana State 41-17
  • 111 123 Austin Peay 38-22
  • 11 8 LSU 43-16
  • 9 27 Oregon State 38-18
  • 66 63 Belmont 39-22
  • 104 118 Louisiana-Monroe 31-28
  • 2 15 Stanford 38-16
  • 24 29 Pepperdine 34-21
  • 55 45 Michigan State 37-21
  • 71 78 Fresno State 30-26
  • 1 2 UCLA 42-14
  • 16 33 San Diego 40-15
  • 37 57 New Mexico 36-22
  • 120 148 Creighton 26-28
Keep your votes in the order listed and use the abbreviations. Here's a sample vote:
  • Ariz 1-2
  • Ore 0-2
  • OSU 3+
  • Stan 2-2
  • UCLA 3-0
5/28/2012 10:49:38 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Regional Predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
We have had Dave, our Fullerton fan, play all year. And now he has a vested interest in one of these regionals because the Titans are playing in Eugene. It'll be interesting to see how he picks.
5/29/2012 10:59:29 AM
Topic:
Relievers

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
SouthernBeaver wrote:
Wouldn't be surprised to see Schultz become our main reliever during the postseason.

I would love that. Schultz has proven himself lately. I was surprised they didn't bring Tony Bryant in at all against the Ducks. If they were concerned about him in the closer role, they should have given him some middle relief innings.
5/29/2012 6:05:50 PM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Cocky LSU fans? You don't say. Only team's fans I know of that are cockier are, um...Cock fans. LOL. Especially those on the Rivals board.

We have a couple LSU guys on this board with whom I have had friendly conversations. Hoping they join in the conversation here. Actually on another thread....
5/29/2012 6:25:32 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Riverduck wrote:
Look at your regional last year.. you guys owned the place, then went to vandy and it was not even close.

Every Beaver fan wanted a do-over on that Vandy series. Sammy G was not feeling right heading into the series and would have rested another day, except Osich was out completely, so he gave it the old college try...and was not sharp. Freshman Ben Wetzler got the game two start and pitched admirably, limiting Vanderbilt to five hits and two runs in four innings while striking out five. He left at the start of the fifth with a 2-2 tie, but Vanderbilt managed to score four runs on three hits in 1.1 innings off reliever Scott Schultz, who suffered the loss. Yes, the super HFA was hard to overcome. It always is. But that weekend was not typical for that Beaver team. Hoping this weekend turns out differently.
5/29/2012 9:09:20 PM
Topic:
Lamest Announcers..

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Lamest announcers? I thought this was going to be a warning/apology to Eugene regional visitors for Lame Ducks on the airwaves.

I have to say, and I admit some prejudice, but Mike Parker is one of my all-time favorite baseball announcers. He is pretty straight when giving the play-by-play, even though he will lean toward the Beavers. And you never know when a close play or a really bad call will get him yelling--YELLING--at an umpire and really showing his passion. Love that. Has a Vin Scully / Jon Miller presentation. And he really knows baseball and baseball history.
5/29/2012 9:11:10 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
You were at Duck Pond in Newberg/Dundee? Right down the street from me....
5/29/2012 9:16:45 PM
Topic:
Arizona a NS?

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I don't know about the UAPB series, but Casey does not worry about RPI when scheduling a lot of the times. I think the Maine (?) series came about because he was talking to the Maine coach and decided to help the guy out by defraying travel costs or something because that coach couldn't find opponents (for that reason I guess). Something of that nature. Moot point anyway.
5/30/2012 12:38:37 AM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
SouthernBeaver wrote:
    If I had a username at PO I would have pointed out that Rivals doesn't even HAVE a baseball section anymore except for a random smattering of obsolete headlines.

Pssst. The forum's still there. Just nobody can find it. It's a.....



SECRET!!!!
5/30/2012 12:55:38 AM
Topic:
Lamest Announcers..

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I like Jerry Allen as a football announcer, and I WANT to like him as a baseball announcer, but talk about a can of corn. Suicide
Maybe he just needs a few years of baseball under his belt. Or maybe some kind Duck fan could send him some broadcast tapes of Mike Parker to listen to in the offseason. Brian Prawitz (sp?) is not bad. But nothing beats Parker and Big Jim Wilson: A historian and a former player who gives keen insight for those of us not at the ballpark to see with our mind's eyes.

Actually, I have listened to UCLA audio streams for some of their games, and (it sounds like students or very young guys) they are pretty even-keeled. Liked what I heard from them. Maybe MostUnknown can shed some light.

Also got to watch a Hawaii game (thanks, Opihi), and their announcer had the coolest baritone Hawaiian accent.

As far as reputation goes, if you irritate Beavers on this board, you will lose it. I noticed some Beaver slammed me (I wonder who...) for extending an olive branch to Ducks in the postseason at the tail end of the Civil War thread. Whaaaaa?
5/30/2012 1:01:55 AM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Back on topic here briefly.... I was planning to post some comparative team stats between OSU and LSU, but I'm dragging my feet. I have some, but it takes time to format for BB consumption, and anyway...would folks rather see a Belmont breakdown?
5/30/2012 10:50:34 AM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
2Bulldogs posts a lot of west coast stuff that I find worth reading. And the stat ubergeeks post there.
5/30/2012 7:36:50 PM
Topic:
All Pac team announced

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I'm with Borg. I don't know what Lopez did that was earthshatteringly unexpected. Arizona did what was expected of them. And though they won the conference title (thank you, Beavers), they did not end up ranked higher than Oregon. Horton, OTOH, took a team that finished quite badly last year and turned them into a national seed, against all the expectations and preseason predictions. Chubby was robbed!
5/30/2012 7:43:06 PM
Topic:
All Pac team announced

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Also, what is up with giving the same player two awards? The defensive POY should be reserved for players whose main contribution is in the area of fielding. Was there nobody as qualified as a guy with a .953 fielding percentage and seventh in the conference in assists? Wow. They should have given him one, even if he got to decide which one, and given the other award to some other player. It's like giving the MVP and Cy Young to one guy. Lame.
5/30/2012 7:58:32 PM
Topic:
Regional strategy

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I just read someplace online that LSU is going to withhold their ace Gausman for game two when they expect to face either OSU or Belmont and pitch somebody else, presumably their number 2 starter, against 4th seed UL-Monroe.

So YOU are the head coach of a #1 seed in a regional. Do you go this route? Does it depend on how poor the 4th seed is and how good the 2nd seed is? What if the 4th seed's ace is the one really good player on the club and he beats you? Then you have to play an extra game or two from the loser's bracket and your ace might not be ready to pitch on short rest in what could be the critical game five. And does this mess up your rotation?

YOU MAKE THE CALL.
5/30/2012 8:27:00 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Okay, here's some preliminary info on the Belmont Bruins. We will likely face their ace Chase Brookshire, who looks like a control pitcher with a better strikeout-to-walk ratio, better ERA, better OBA, and better WHIP than Wetzler. That's against mostly A-Sun competition, so we cold probably adjust three of those numbers upward a bit. But he still looks formidable.

Player. . . . . . . . ERA . . BB . . SO . . OBA. . WHIP. . SWR
Wetzler, Ben. . . . . 3.30. . 35. . 61. . 0.245. . 1.44. . 1.74
BROOKSHIRE, Chase . . 2.45. . 24. . 78. . 0.222. . 1.09. . 3.25
Fry, Jace . . . . . . 2.47. . 29. . 47. . 0.211. . 1.22. . 1.62
LUDWIG, Dan . . . . . 3.49. . 14. . 51. . 0.251. . 1.28. . 3.64
Child, Dan. . . . . . 2.80. . 23. . 77. . 0.271. . 1.32. . 3.35
BUCKELEW, James . . . 2.45. . 36. . 30. . 0.248. . 1.52. . 0.83
Face their ace Chase. Had to say that again.
5/30/2012 10:53:36 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Batting comparisons (with Belmont)

Looks like another Beaver advantage offensively, but Belmont does have some guys, headlined by Zac Mitchell.
AVG
MITCHELL, Zac. . . . 0.361
Smith, Tyler . . . . 0.350
Conforto, Michael. . 0.343
AKERS, Judah . . . . 0.339
Hayes, Danny . . . . 0.317
Gorton, Ryan . . . . 0.306
TURNER, Drew . . . . 0.300
Dunn, Ryan . . . . . 0.299
CRAIG, Dylan . . . . 0.290
DIAMOND, Alec. . . . 0.290
Rodriguez, Jake. . . 0.290
BRODY, Greg. . . . . 0.278
Barnes, Ryan . . . . 0.277
Gordon, Max. . . . . 0.267
BEATY, Matt. . . . . 0.259
Matthews, Joey . . . 0.256
DODD, William . . . 0.220
RITCHIE, Jamie . . . 0.206
BREEN, Jared . . . . 0.201

SLG
Conforto, Michael. . 0.603
Hayes, Danny . . . . 0.574
MITCHELL, Zac. . . . 0.542
Dunn, Ryan . . . . . 0.488
AKERS, Judah . . . . 0.468
BEATY, Matt. . . . . 0.452
BRODY, Greg. . . . . 0.444
Smith, Tyler . . . . 0.431
Matthews, Joey . . . 0.402
TURNER, Drew . . . . 0.383
Rodriguez, Jake. . . 0.373
DODD, William. . . . 0.373
Barnes, Ryan . . . . 0.364
CRAIG, Dylan . . . . 0.359
Gorton, Ryan . . . . 0.342
Gordon, Max. . . . . 0.333
BREEN, Jared . . . . 0.326
DIAMOND, Alec. . . . 0.312
RITCHIE, Jamie . . . 0.250

OBP
MITCHELL, Zac . . . 0.493
Hayes, Danny . . . . 0.474
Smith, Tyler . . . . 0.440
Conforto, Michael. . 0.435
Gorton, Ryan . . . . 0.430
Barnes, Ryan . . . . 0.413
DIAMOND, Alec . . . 0.411
Matthews, Joey . . . 0.390
Dunn, Ryan . . . . . 0.383
Gordon, Max. . . . . 0.383
AKERS, Judah . . . . 0.380
CRAIG, Dylan . . . . 0.379
BRODY, Greg. . . . . 0.375
Rodriguez, Jake. . . 0.371
TURNER, Drew . . . . 0.368
RITCHIE, Jamie . . . 0.359
BEATY, Matt. . . . . 0.329
BREEN, Jared . . . . 0.308
DODD, William. . . . 0.291
5/31/2012 12:33:24 AM
Topic:
National Predictions: Regionals

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
    Charlottesville Regional

    1. Virginia (38-17-1)
    2. Oklahoma (38-22)
    3. Appalachian State (39-16)
    4. Oral Roberts (41-13)
That #4 should be Army.
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