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Dodger Matt - all messages by user

5/27/2012 3:10:23 PM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I don't know about that. Starr has only walked one and hit one, and a lot of his pitches look dam good. I can see him going a couple more innings. Dan Child might come in if needed, but I would expect, if Starr goes seven, that the Beavers will use spot relievers for key matchups, to face one or two batters at a time, until the 8th or 9th.
5/27/2012 3:21:22 PM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
The question I have is, how early will Horton go to Sherfy? And will he wait until the Ducks score a run or two and get close or figure he has to pull the lever even from a deficit to keep it close?
5/27/2012 4:09:05 PM
Topic:
Relievers

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I'm liking Sherfy today.
5/27/2012 4:12:52 PM
Topic:
Race For The Pac-12 Title

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Devils tie it in the 8th, 7-7. And Trojans jump ahead of UCLA, 4-3 in the 6th. Could see that 4-way tie after all.
5/27/2012 4:19:33 PM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Yeah, the Beavers are a double-play machine today.

I just saw a guy in the stands with an orange shirt that said "I HATE YOUR DUCKS".
5/27/2012 4:26:08 PM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Scott Schultz is lights out. New closer?

7-7 top of 9th.
4-3 USC, bottom 6th.
5/27/2012 4:39:41 PM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
OpihiMan wrote:
Arizona walks off in the bottom of the 9th with the PAC-12 title, Duck failure lands them 2nd!

Congrats Wildcats 2012 PAC-12 Champs!

*enjoy your payback Ducks

Not so fast. Ducks could end up third.
5/27/2012 4:52:19 PM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Yes, payback is complete. And the tables have been turned a full 180 degrees. Last year, Oregon State was in first for virtually the entire season and needed but one victory over Oregon in the Civil War for at least a share of the title, but the Ducks swept us and we got no title, no share of the title, and no national seed, which probably negatively impacted our chances to reach Omaha. This year, the Ducks were in first for most of the season and needed only one victory against the Beavers for the same situation, and the sweep by the Beavers has denied the Ducks the title, a share of the title, and...we have yet to see whether or not they get their national seed.

But let me say now that the Civil War is over and the Beavers have emerged with a grand sweep of sweet vengeance, I wish the Ducks great success in the postseason. I for one did not expect you to be half as good this year as you were, and I would love to see you go deep into the postseason. If the baseball gods were pleased by this payback Civil War, they will do what they can to schedule a rematch in a super regional or in Omaha.

Good luck to the Ducks.
And even better luck to the Beavers.
5/27/2012 6:41:53 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 15

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Day three
  • Oregon State 5, Oregon 0. Taylor Starr (5-2) beat the Ducks for the second time this year, shutting them out over 6.1 IP and limiting the Ducks to 7 hits. The Beavers turned three double plays behind Starr in an errorless game, and the Beavers completed a Civil War sweep, the third such sweep in the last three years. In an injury-plagued career, Starr pitched in his final game at Goss Stadium at Coleman Field. Michael Conforto had two hits and added two RBIs to his conference best, for a total of 71 on the season. Kavin Keyes was 1 for 2 with 2 RBIs. Kyle Garlick and Ryon Healy had two hits apiece for the Ducks.
    OSU sweeps series 3-0.
  • Arizona 8, ASU 7. The Devils were down 5-0 after two innings and 7-1 after three before tying the game 7-7 in the 8th inning. In the bottom of the 9th, Arizona had runners at the corners with two out, and Johnny Field hit a walk-off single to left field to guarantee Arizona at least a share of the Pac-12 title. Arizona outhit ASU 14-13. Seth Mejias-Brean was 2 for 5 with 2 RBIs for the Cats. Abe Ruiz was 3 for 4 with 4 RBIs for the Devils.
    Arizona wins series 2-1.
  • UCLA 7, USC 6. In a back-and-forth game, the Trojans outhit UCLA 14-12, but ended up one run short, as the Bruins grabbed a share of the Pac-12 title by sweeping USC at home. Pat Valaika was 1 for 4 with 3 RBIs for UCLA, and Scott Griggs pitched 1.1 IP for the win.
    UCLA sweeps series 3-0.
  • Stanford 5, Cal 3. Two-way player Stephen Piscotty pitched seven innings for the win, and the Cardinal salvaged one game to end the season. Stanford had already been awarded a regional host site, so the result of this series did not affect their hosting chances at all, but the needed a sweep for a chance at sharing the Pac-12 title and lost that on Friday. Cal’s season ends on a loss, but at least they beat their rival on the road. Stanford CF Jake Stewart was 2 for 5 with 3 RBIs and 1 homer.
    Cal wins series 2-1.
  • Washington State 3, Washington 2. An unearned run in the 7th was the difference in the final game of the Apple Cup series, giving the Huskies the loss and perhaps costing UW a chance at the postseason. Kyle Johnson was 2 for 4 with 1 RBI for the Cougs; Robert Pehl was also 2 for 4 with 1 RBI for the Dawgs.
    Washington wins series 2-1.
5/27/2012 7:00:19 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 15

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Week 15 scores
  • 24.0 Dodger Matt
  • 22.0 BeaverBob
  • 21.0 OpihiMan
  • 20.0 MostUnknown
  • 20.0 Rowdy
  • 19.0 ASU74
  • 19.0 ConnorOSU
  • 19.0 FullertonBaseballFan
  • 18.0 Florida Beaver
  • 17.0 borgguy
  • 17.0 Duckfan127
  • 16.0 WildCard85
  • 15.0 RiverDuck
This is Dodger Matt's first time at the top of the weekly scores. And with BeaverBob and OpihiMan--the bottom two on our season averages--filling out the top three, it was a good weekend for Beaver fans. If only Oregon State had done as well every weekend, I think these three guys would have done better in the prediction scores as well.
  • Nobody got all six series correct, but Dodger Matt and MostUnknown got four of six.
  • 11 of 13 correctly picked UW 2-1 over Wazzu.
  • The top three scorers this week were the only ones to correctly pick Oregon State to sweep Oregon in the glorious Civil War payback that knocked the Ducks out of first place.
  • Only Connor correctly picked Utah to get swept.
  • Nobody picked Cal 2-1 over Stanford.
5/27/2012 8:55:46 PM
Topic:
Pac-12...Softball

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Cal blanks Washington twice to advance. Cal sits on the left bracket, and ASU and Oregon are on the right bracket and face each other in the first game. I don't remember, but I think losers at some point swap brackets in the women's CWS. At least they used to.
5/27/2012 10:12:38 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 15

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
borgguy wrote:
not that this will change my position in the standings much, but for the record DM i also picked a beaver sweep...

"The top three scorers this week were the only ones to correctly pick Oregon State to sweep Oregon in the glorious Civil War payback that knocked the Ducks out of first place. "

Oops. It was your score I saw not Opihi's. There were three.
5/28/2012 12:35:30 AM
Topic:
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 15

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Final Prediction Standings

Here are the final 2012 prediction standings. The order of the top four did not change, although it could have if a few series had gone a little differently. A couple of big upward moves, and a few downward slides.
wks. . ttl . . avg . . name . . . . . . . . . 05/27 . 05/20 . 05/13 . 05/06 . 04/29
11 . 221.0 . 20.09 . . FullertonBaseballFan . . 1 . . . 1 . . . 1 . . . 3 . . . 2
11 . 218.4 . 19.85 . . ASU74. . . . . . . . . . 2 . . . 2 . . . 3 . . . 9 . . . 7
10 . 198.4 . 19.84 . . Rowdy. . . . . . . . . . 3 . . . 3 . . . 2 . . . 1 . . . 1
11 . 215.2 . 19.56 . . MostUnknown. . . . . . . 4 . . . 4 . . . 5 . . . 7 . . . 6
11 . 211.6 . 19.24 . . Dodger Matt. . . . . . + 5 . . .10 . . .10 . . . 8 . . . 9
10 . 190.6 . 19.06 . . ConnorOSU. . . . . . . + 6 . . . 8 . . . 9 . . .12 . . .11
11 . 209.4 . 19.04 . . Florida Beaver . . . . - 7 . . . 5 . . . 6 . . . 9 . . .10
10 . 189.0 . 18.90 . . borgguy. . . . . . . . - 8 . . . 7 . . . 8 . . . 6 . . . 8
10 . 187.2 . 18.72 . . RiverDuck. . . . . . . - 9 . . . 6 . . . 4 . . . 4 . . . 5
11 . 205.8 . 18.71 . . WildCard85 . . . . . . -10 . . . 9 . . . 7 . . . 5 . . . 3
11 . 202.2 . 18.38 . . OpihiMan . . . . . . . .11 . . .11 . . .11 . . .11 . . .12
11 . 201.6 . 18.33 . . BeaverBob. . . . . . . .12 . . .12 . . .12 . . .13 . . .13

The Under-10 Group
wks. . ttl . . avg . . name
4 . .85.0 . 21.25 . . Duckfan127
1 . .22.0 . 22.00 . . TempeJim
6 . 113.8 . 18.97 . . cswanson2k7
4 . .74.4 . 18.60 . . BeaverBeliever20
2 . .36.0 . 18.00 . . SouthernBeaver
1 . .18.0 . 18.00 . . z6 (Week 11 Guest)
2 . .33.4 . 16.70 . . CaughtBySparky
1 . .14.4 . 14.40 . . Islander
1 . .14.0 . 14.00 . . WCC1
One player suggested I give out “awards” in addition to announcing the top score, so here they are.
Top Gun: . . . . . . . FullertonBaseballFan
Most High: . . . . . . ASU74 (3 top weekly scores plus highest single score all season—28)
Perfect Picker:. . . . Rowdy (only player to correctly pick all six series—Week 06)
Extremist: . . . . . . Riverduck (lowest score 5 weeks; highest score 2 weeks)
Most Improved: . . . . ConnorOSU (from 12th to 6th in three weeks)
I’ll set up something for the Pac-12 teams picked for regional play after they are announced. It will be set up a little differently, so watch for it.
5/28/2012 12:43:53 AM
Topic:
Arizona a NS?

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Aaron Fitt barely gave Arizona a regional host the last I looked, and he had Stanford competing with SoCar for the eighth national seed. With the Cardinal's slip against Cal, I think the Gamecocks have the leg up on them. So I'm thinking the national seeds for the Pac will be UCLA and Oregon (despite the Civil War sweep and loss of the conference crown).

Won't have long to wait.
5/28/2012 10:31:53 AM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Oregon State is #2 seed at National Seed #7 LSU's regional.

Oregon State will open the regional against No. 3 Belmont (Atlantic Sun Conference) while LSU takes on No. 4 Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt Conference).

Oregon State article.
5/28/2012 12:45:33 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 15

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Rowdy wrote:
GO CATS!

Aha! I was starting to wonder if you were an Arizona fan, but only just recently.
5/28/2012 2:12:23 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Some stats from Boyd and Massey.
ISR  ISR#   W   L   PCT   SOS RPI  RPI#   
11 120.4 42 16 0.729 45 8 0.603 Louisiana State
9 120.8 38 18 0.679 14 27 0.577 Oregon State
66 109.4 39 22 0.639 131 63 0.543 Belmont
104 105.0 31 28 0.525 104 118 0.516 Louisiana-Monroe

Massey
Team. . . . Rat. . . . Pwr . . . .Off . . . .Def . . . HFA . . . . Sch
OSU . . . . 8 2.08 . . 8 9.37. . 10 10.22 . .28 4.71 . 176 0.73. . 13 7.44
LSU . . . .10 2.02 . .15 8.96. . 22 .9.75 . .26 4.77 . 393 0.48. . 51 6.54
Belmont . .72 1.46 . .72 6.83. .173 .7.87 . .33 4.52 . .60 0.96. .129 5.21
ULM . . . 112 1.27 . .98 6.20. . 79 .8.74 . 129 3.02 . 694 0.19. . 97 5.70
Notes:
  • From an ISR standpoint, LSU is facing a legitimate #1, and the #4 is one of the few good ones.
  • From the Rat's Patootie side, Oregon State is the only one ranked radically differently from its ISR.
  • According to Massey, LSU has a slightly better defense than OSU (surprise #1) and OSU has an edge in offense (surprise #2).
  • LSU does not get a huge bump from playing at home (surprise #3). I always thought those huge Box crowds were a huge advantage for the Tigers, but if you play the two teams under Massey's matchups comparison, LSU has a 54 to 45% favorability. If the game were played at a neutral site, OSU would be favored 53 to 47%. If the game were played at Oregon State, the Beavers would have a 63 to 37% favorability.
5/28/2012 4:29:34 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
They're not totally different. The RPIs just stop after a certain point (opponents and opponents' opponents) and the ISRs keep going. Boyd explains the differences on his FAQ, if you're interested in the details. Massey also uses an iterative system; that's why his numbers are closer to Boyd's than the RPI. And if you've heard of Warren Nolan, who does a pretty good overview of all teams and their strengths and weaknesses in terms of making the postseason (the Nitty Gritty Report), he also uses an RPI-based rating system.
5/28/2012 5:00:21 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Pitching matchups

Granted, this will not be a three-game series, and we will most likely only match up with LSU on day two (as laid out below) because, regardless of who wins game two, the pitching matchups will be off for one team's third game and the other's fourth (if we meet twice)--but here's how the two teams' three starters compare.

. . . . . . . . ERA. . . W-L . . OBA . . . WHIP
-------------------------------------------------
Wetzler, Ben . . 3.30 . . 6-2 . . 0.245 . . 1.44
Kevin Gausman. . 2.84 . .10-1 . . 0.231 . . 1.10

Fry, Jace. . . . 2.47 . . 5-3 . . 0.211 . . 1.22
Aaron Nola . . . 3.93 . . 6-4 . . 0.253 . . 1.18

Child, Dan . . . 2.80 . . 6-3 . . 0.271 . . 1.32
Ryan Eades . . . 3.36 . . 5-2 . . 0.282 . . 1.53

Whether LSU throws Gausman against Lou-Monroe or holds him for the winner of the OSU-Belmont game is another question. But if Oregon State stays with its Wetzler-Fry-Child rotation, the Beavers will have the pitching advantage (by the numbers) in the critical game two, even if LSU holds Gausman for game two.
5/28/2012 6:10:09 PM
Topic:
Beavers in Baton Rouge

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Batting comparisons

These look pretty even. If you just grab the top three from each category, you'd have to give the Beavers a slight edge. I'm surprised the small ball Oregon State team has two at the top of the slugging table above the original gorilla ballers.
Batting average
Raph Rhymes . . . . . 0.459
Smith, Tyler. . . . . 0.350
Conforto, Michael . . 0.343
Mason Katz. . . . . . 0.335
Jordy Snikeris. . . . 0.329
Hayes, Danny. . . . . 0.317
Austin Nola . . . . . 0.308
Gorton, Ryan. . . . . 0.306
Ty Ross . . . . . . . 0.305
Dunn, Ryan. . . . . . 0.299
Tyler Hanover . . . . 0.294
Rodriguez, Jake . . . 0.290
Barnes, Ryan. . . . . 0.277
Jackson Slaid . . . . 0.271
Tyler Moore . . . . . 0.270
Gordon, Max . . . . . 0.267

OBP
Raph Rhymes . . . . . 0.513
Hayes, Danny. . . . . 0.474
Smith, Tyler. . . . . 0.440
Conforto, Michael . . 0.435
Gorton, Ryan. . . . . 0.430
Austin Nola . . . . . 0.429
Mason Katz. . . . . . 0.426
Barnes, Ryan. . . . . 0.413
Jordy Snikeris. . . . 0.388
Dunn, Ryan. . . . . . 0.383
Gordon, Max . . . . . 0.383
Tyler Hanover . . . . 0.375
Rodriguez, Jake . . . 0.371
Ty Ross . . . . . . . 0.362
Jackson Slaid . . . . 0.352
Tyler Moore . . . . . 0.336


Slugging
Conforto, Michael . . 0.603
Hayes, Danny. . . . . 0.574
Mason Katz. . . . . . 0.564
Raph Rhymes . . . . . 0.555
Dunn, Ryan. . . . . . 0.488
Jordy Snikeris. . . . 0.487
Austin Nola . . . . . 0.443
Smith, Tyler. . . . . 0.431
Ty Ross . . . . . . . 0.402
Jackson Slaid . . . . 0.396
Tyler Moore . . . . . 0.377
Tyler Hanover . . . . 0.373
Rodriguez, Jake . . . 0.373
Barnes, Ryan. . . . . 0.364
Gorton, Ryan. . . . . 0.342
Gordon, Max . . . . . 0.333
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