Not a member yet?
Subscribe Now!

Perfect Game Forum

Dodger Matt - all messages by user

5/23/2012 7:11:45 PM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I thought I saw someone ask for the stat pairing with national rankings somewhere. Can't find all of them, but here are some. The hard numbers (not listed) are the same as mentioned in the original post. The numbers you see here are each team's rank nationally. For example, both teams are in the top ten in sac bunts: OSU fifth in the nation, Oregon tenth.

For this list, anything in the top 50 nationally is highlighted.

. . . . . . . . . . .OSU. . . . Oregon
Sac bunts . . . . . . .5. . . . . 10
Walks . . . . . . . . 39. . . . . 80
Runs per game . . . . 41. . . . .205
OBP . . . . . . . . . 43. . . . .150
Doubles . . . . . . . 49. . . . .162
Runs. . . . . . . . . 52. . . . .184
HBP . . . . . . . . . 52. . . . . 82
Homers. . . . . . . . 65. . . . .108
Slugging. . . . . . . 72. . . . .153
Sac flies . . . . . . 85. . . . .223
Batting . . . . . . . 99. . . . .211
Hits. . . . . . . . .117. . . . .178
SO-to-walk ratio. . .121. . . . .124
Stolen bases. . . . .217. . . . . 87
DPs per game. . . . . 15. . . . . 63
Fielding. . . . . . . 23. . . . . .8
ERA . . . . . . . . . 67. . . . . 10
Hits allowed. . . . . 87. . . . . .2
5/24/2012 6:14:38 PM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Overall, Oregon has better pitching stats than Oregon State. But let’s look at the starting pitching matchups.

Friday
Keudell, Alex (10-3): 1.80 ERA, .228 OBA, 1.13 WHIP.
Wetzler, Ben (6-2): 3.30 ERA, .245 OBA, 1.44 WHIP.

Clearly Keudell has the better numbers and is probably the best pitcher on both teams. And Keudell did shut out the Beavers in game three last year in Eugene for 6 innings. Wetzler faced 10 batters in relief in that game and gave up a run over 2.1 IP.

Saturday
Reed, Jake (6-3): 3.06 ERA, .242 OBA, 1.36 WHIP.
Fry, Jace (5-3): 2.47 ERA, .211 OBA, 1.22 WHIP.

Have to give the edge to Fry. He has the best OBA and second best numbers in the other categories of all six starters.

Sunday
Gold, Jeff (8-3): 3.26 ERA, .242 OBA, 1.24 WHIP.
Child, Dan (6-3): 2.80 ERA, .271 OBA, 1.32 WHIP.

This one is mixed. Child lets runners on a little bit more often, but stops them from scoring. Close, but looks like an ever-so-slight OSU advantage.

Relief pitching goes to Oregon, especially closer Sherfy. Let's hope OSU's starter go deep.
5/24/2012 7:59:42 PM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Massey

For those unfamiliar with Ken Massey’s website, here are some interesting things I dredged up there.

Massey uses an iterative rating system like Boyd’s. If you look at the top 20 teams, you’ll recognize six Pac-12 teams, including the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th. Oregon is #2 under Massey, and OSU is #16. In Massey’s computations for offense and defense, Oregon is ranked 34 OFF and 1 DEF; Oregon State is 11 OFF and 32 DEF.

In the upper left corner of the homepage, click the More button and select Predictions. You’ll find some (not all) games listed for each calendar day and an average score based on their season stats with the home field advantage variable included. You can click through the days. The Friday Civil War game is listed with a predicted 4-3 OSU victory. (All three games would have the same prediction numbers, at least until the recently played game’s results are factored in for the next one, but I doubt they’ll change that much. The two are pretty even foes according to massey, with OSU holding a slim 53 to 47% edge.

You can also create your own matchups. Back on the main page, click the More button and select Matchups. Here you can select two teams and see what an average score between them would be, based on their season stats. For Oregon HOSTING Oregon State, the Ducks’ chances improve to a 59% chance to win, and the 4-3 score flips to the Duck Side. You can also select a number of games played and click the random score generator to get a feel for how a three-game Civil War might play out.
5/25/2012 12:58:55 AM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
BeaverBob wrote:
Great idea ASU74. So, I have a wager to RiverDuck and Duck 666 (can't remember your name, sorry). If the Beavers win the Series, I have a couple of OSU T-shirts I'll send you and expect that you wear them and post a picture of you wearing them. If the Ducks win, I have some underwear with green trim and yellow streaks (Duck Colors) that I will wear. I'm also happy to post a picture to attest to the fact that I followed through with my bet. What's you say?


You should probably wash those shorts, Bob. And I think I speak for us all in hoping the Beavers win so we don't require that photographic proof--positive or negative.

May the best team win!

No, no, no. May the BEAVERS win. I don't care how they win or even whether they are better; I just want three W's.

RD, thanks for that stat on Keudell. What number of runs do we need to reach 100%?
5/25/2012 10:00:02 AM
Topic:
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 15

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I'm betting on the Beavers with my heart and hoping for a three-way tie for first...with Oregon in fourth!

OSU 3-0
Ariz 2-1
UCLA 3-0
Stan 3-0
UW 2-1
XB 2-1

But I'll be satisfied if Oregon State only takes two and there's a four-way tie for first.
5/25/2012 10:15:58 AM
Topic:
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 15

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Pick analysis
  • Two unanimous picks this week, topped by Stanford over Cal, 13/0 with 10 sweeps.
  • The other is UCLA over USC, 13/0 with 9 sweeps.
  • The next two are tied...in opposite directions. UW 12/1 over Wazzu with 1 sweep.
  • And Utah's opponents are favored 12/1 with 1 sweep. The poor Utes get no respect from the Pac-12 faithful.
  • The next two are very close. Arizona over ASU 8/5 with 2 sweeps. Looking at Massey, this series looks almost dead even and could be the closest in reality.
  • The series we picked as the closest is OSU over Oregon 8/5 with OSU garnering 3 sweeps to Oregon's 2 sweeps.
5/25/2012 12:01:26 PM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
A look at the batting leaders for both teams. The top ten in three categories: Batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.
Average
1. . Conforto, Michael . . 0.349
2. . Smith, Tyler. . . . . 0.348
3. . Hayes, Danny. . . . . 0.319
4. . Gorton, Ryan. . . . . 0.314
5. . Thomas, Brett . . . . 0.309
6. . Garlick, Kyle . . . . 0.306
7. . Healy, Ryon . . . . . 0.303
8. . Dunn, Ryan. . . . . . 0.302
9. . Payne, Aaron. . . . . 0.296
10. . Rodriguez, Jake . . . 0.293

OBP
1. . Hayes, Danny. . . . . 0.476
2. . Conforto, Michael . . 0.440
3. . Gorton, Ryan. . . . . 0.435
4. . Smith, Tyler. . . . . 0.434
5. . Payne, Aaron. . . . . 0.420
6. . Barnes, Ryan. . . . . 0.406
7. . Garlick, Kyle . . . . 0.401
8. . Matthews, Joey. . . . 0.389
9. . Dunn, Ryan. . . . . . 0.387
10. . Gordon, Max . . . . . 0.387

SLG
1. . Conforto, Michael . . 0.620
2. . Hayes, Danny. . . . . 0.560
3. . Garlick, Kyle . . . . 0.506
4. . Dunn, Ryan. . . . . . 0.497
5. . Jones, Aaron. . . . . 0.473
6. . Thomas, Brett . . . . 0.451
7. . Smith, Tyler. . . . . 0.433
8. . Matthews, Joey. . . . 0.427
9. . Healy, Ryon . . . . . 0.408
10. . Davis, Dylan. . . . . 0.393
Not surprisingly, given the earlier stats about team offense, Oregon State leads all three categories confortobly. The question is, given Oregon's pitching advantages (especially for Friday night's game), will these higher OSU offensive numbers become irrelevant? After all, a +.040 in BA (over te opposing team's top batter) is not that great if the opposing pitcher has an OBA of .228. And we've all seen the batting slumps.
5/25/2012 12:16:50 PM
Topic:
Race For The Pac-12 Title

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
ASU74 wrote:
Here are the scenarios for determining the Pac-12 Champion: If Oregon and Arizona both sweep their rivals, Oregon remains the Pac-12 leader and claims the Conference championship. If Oregon wins two of three and Arizona sweeps, Oregon and Arizona will be tied at .700 in Pac-12 play, becoming co-champions. If Oregon wins one of three and Arizona wins all three, Arizona takes sole ownership of the Pac-12 crown.

This is a good, simple way to look at it, but they don't mention the two other teams who have a reasonable crack at the top spot.

Stanford and UCLA have very good chances to sweep their opponents this weekend. That means either of them would tie the Ducks if Oregon only wins one game, and both would go up one game on the Ducks if Oregon State sweeps Oregon. So Friday night's game is CRITICAL for the Ducks to win. If they lose tonight, their chance for an outright title drops considerably.
5/25/2012 12:50:12 PM
Topic:
PG 64: Projecting the NCAA field (5.22)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Question on national seeds WRT pac-12 teams:
  • Oregon and UCLA both are listed under the RPI Needs Report as finishing within the top 8 even if both are swept this weekend.
  • Arizona apparently can't make the top 8 cutoff even if they sweep ASU.
  • If the Ducks and perhaps UCLA falter and Arizona manages to take the Pac-12 crown outright, regardless of their RPI, do they get a national seed? What if Oregon is swept and they lose the Pac-12 crown--do they still get a national seed over Arizona in that situation?
5/25/2012 1:07:41 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 15

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
After running some quick simulations, it looks like the season crown for Pac-12 predictor of the year will come down to one of our top three players entering this final weekend: FullertonBaseballFan, Rowdy, or ASU74.
5/25/2012 1:59:20 PM
Topic:
PG 64: Projecting the NCAA field (5.22)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Riverduck wrote:
I think there is actually more stress on the beavers.

Nah. Beavers have nothing to lose. They're in the postseason regardless of this weekend's results, the only difference being whether they get to be a 2 on the road or a 3 on the road. And that distinction often means nothing because they often pick the higher RPI as the 2, meaning the higher ISR team (and often the better team) would be the 3. For the Ducks OTOH, they have the Pac-12 title and a national seed on the line. And they're playing on the road, in a stadium where they are 1-6. Much more stress on them.
5/25/2012 2:04:02 PM
Topic:
One seed at a road Regional?

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Riverduck wrote:
Well, my wife pretty much hates baseball.

Why did you marry her? Was it perhaps in the dark days before UO had a baseball team, and you didn't realize?

j/k, Mrs. Riverduck. Not trying to ruffle feathers.
5/25/2012 4:01:37 PM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Some notes (from UO and OSU baseball websites)
  • No. 23 Oregon State leads the all-time series over the Ducks, 161-153. Since the UO baseball program was reinstated for the 2009 season, OSU has an 11-7 advantage.
  • In seven games at Goss Stadium since 2009, the Ducks have only left Corvallis with one win, defeating the Beavers 7-2, on May 3, 2011.
  • This season in two games at PK Park, the Ducks and Beavers have each recorded a win. During the last two seasons, each club has swept the conference series on their respective home field. In 2010, OSU swept Oregon at Goss, while in 2011, the Ducks ended their season by sweeping the Beavers at PK Park.
  • Pat Casey needs one win to surpass Jack Riley as the winningest coach in Oregon State history. Casey’s record is 613-374-4 in 18 seasons at OSU. It took Riley 22 years to reach 613 wins.
So over two weekends, Casey tied Riley’s record against Wazzu in Pullman, and he will have broken it against Oregon in Corvallis. How awesome is that?
5/25/2012 4:11:46 PM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
RD, good article. I don't know about you, but Horton came into Eugene with some kind of attitude, displayed by comments that Oregon would be the recruiting juggernaut of the PNW and minimizing OSU's accomplishments. I am pleased he has started to show more respect of late, starting with the pregame to last year's Civil War, when the man looked truly humbled. In this article he is genuinely respectful, and that impresses me a lot. Props to George. Cool
5/25/2012 4:12:33 PM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Riverduck wrote:
We are starting to run out of first ofs, and that would definitely be one of em..

How about, "First time the Ducks got punked out of first by being swept by the Beavers"?
5/25/2012 4:36:51 PM
Topic:
PG 64: Projecting the NCAA field (5.22)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Only dirt left is on the bump.
5/26/2012 12:26:05 AM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Beating the terrorist rifle (AK-47) in the Green Chicken suit was an awesome victory for all Beaver fans. Benny was shaky, but he got through 5-plus with a lead, and the Beavs knocked out the Pac-12 ERA leader after 5.2 IP with 5 earned runs. And though Riverduck never showed up for some of that famous BeaverBob "hospitality", Bob, OpihiMan, and I were able to vent our early game frustrations on a surrogate RD in the form of a bald guy wearing weird green and yellow clothing in front of us. He had come to the park with a Beaver fan, who vouched for his behavior, so we guessed the doctors felt he was probably not a threat to others or himself, so we treated just like...well, not like family or even a friend, but...more like a weird guy in green and yellow clothes who cheered at the wrong times and made everyone feel awkward because of his inappropriateness. You know, like laughing at a funeral. So it felt like RD was there, at least in spirit. In fact, there were a number of odd people in weird green clothes there tonight. There must have been some kind of community-outreach ticket giveaway at the homes in the area, and the caretakers wanted to make sure they all wore similar clothing so they couldn't melt into the general populace unsupervised after the game....

BeaverBob and OpihiMan: It was great to share a row at the game with you guys. I'll post that photo soon.

What a tremendous, gluten-free day!
5/26/2012 2:42:19 AM
Topic:
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 15

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Day one
  • Oregon State 7, Oregon 3. OSU’s Ben Wetzler did not look good early, throwing 35 pitches in the 1st inning and giving up three singles and a wind-aided two-run homer to Ryon Healy. The Beavers came back and tied it 2-2 in the bottom frame with a hit batsman and three singles. Oregon jumped back on top 3-2 in the 2nd. In the bottom of the 5th, Jake Rodriguez led off with a double for the Beavers, and Alex Keudell walked three of the next five batters to load the bases and tie the game 3-3. With the bags full, Ryan Barnes laced a single to center that scored two more two-out runs to make it 5-3 Beavers. Wetzler got the first two batters he faced in the 6th, then gave way to Scott Schultz because of a high pitch count. Schultz then retired 9 straight of the 11 he faced, hitting a batter in the 9th for the only man he allowed to reach base. Keudell himself didn’t last past the 6th, being lifted for Joey Housey, who gave up two more runs in the 7th on a double, single, two walks, and a bases-loaded hit batter. OSU squandered an insurance run in the 8th when Michael Conforto, running errantly from third, was thrown out at home on a single to centerfield. But the run wasn’t necessary. Scott Schultz was brilliant in relief and earned the save. Wetzler (7-2) got the win, and Keudell (10-4) took the loss. Ryan Barnes was 3-5 with 3 RBIs for the Beavers. Ryon Healy was 1 for 4 with 2 RBIs. There were 3061 in attendance, the fourth-largest regular season crowd since 1999, and the win was Pat Casey’s 614th, which made Casey the winningest coach in Oregon State history, surpassing Jack Riley’s 613 wins. The win also moved Casey into 13th place in Pac-12 history for most wins.
    OSU leads series 1-0.
  • Arizona 1, ASU 0. Before before a crowd of 5451, Arizona’s Kurt Heyer matched ASU’s Brady Rodgers inning for inning in putting up zeros until the bottom of the ninth, when Seth Mejias-Brean broke the scoreless tie with a double that scored Robert Refsnyder from first, even though the third base coach called for Refsnyder to stop at third. This was the first time the Wildcats have shut out the Devils in 23 years, and the first time they’ve done it in Tucson in 42 years. With their victory and Oregon’s loss, the Cats and Ducks are now tied for first place in the Pac-12.
    Arizona leads series 1-0.
  • UCLA 3, USC 1.Adam Plutko (9-3) earned his fourth consecutive win, limiting USC to one run and four hits in six innings. The win brings UCLA within one game of conference leaders Oregon and Arizona, with two games to go. The Bruins have won 17 of their last 22 games against USC. UCLA had a crowd of 1351 at Jackie Robinson Stadium.
    UCLA leads series 1-0.
  • Cal 5, Stanford 4 (18 innings). A six-hour, 18-inning marathon with 125 atbats and 569 pitches ended when Cal’s one-time ace starter Justin Jones stranded Stanford’s Diekroeger brothers at the corners in the bottom of the 18th by striking out Stephen Piscotty and inducing Brian Ragira to ground out. Both teams scored twice in the 12th inning, but for a moment it looked like Stanford had won the game 5-4 in the 12th. Pinch-hitter Brett Michael Doran hit a ball down the left field line that was initially called fair by the home plate umpire, but the ball was later ruled foul after the umpires conferred. So instead of hitting a two-run walk-off double, Doran bunted the tying run in, and that was all the scoring for another six innings, until Tony Renda singled in the winning run from second with two out in the top of the 18th. Matt Flemer started for Cal and pitched 7.2 IP, yielding 2 runs (1 earned). Stanford’s Mark Appel pitched 7 innings and gave up 1 earned run. AJ Vanegas went 4.2 IP, and Dean McArdle, who took the loss, pitched 6 innings. Danny Oh was 4 for 6 for Cal.
    Cal leads series 1-0.
  • Washington 5, Washington State 2. A two-run double from freshman Branden Berry broke a 2-2 tie in the 7th inning and lifted the Washington baseball team to a 5-2 win over Washington State Friday night at Husky Ballpark. UW starter Aaron West, who gave up two runs on eight hits over six innings, striking out six, did not get the win; that went to sophomore Tyler Kane (7-2), who pitched 2.1 scoreless innings of relief.
    Washington leads series 1-0.
  • UC Santa Barbara 3, Utah 2. Utah was down 2-1 going into the 9th inning, but scored the tying run with a tremendous display of offensive power by getting two walks and two hit batters. In the bottom of the ninth, UCSB loaded the bases with one out with the help of two walks and an error. Although one Gaucho was thrown out at home for the second out of the inning, Brandon Trinkwon hit an RBI single to drive in the game-winning run.
    Utah trails series 0-1.
5/26/2012 11:04:57 AM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Quist, I've been wondering what happened with you. I keep all the names on my spreadsheet in case people come back later in the season, and your column is empty for this year. Congrats on the medical school. (Will you become a "corpseman"?)

Anyway, welcome back.
5/26/2012 11:35:45 AM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Wow, and SouthernBeaver reappears as well. Nothing like a Civil War to bring back the old gang.

After yesterday's game, Oregon's ISR dropped from 2 to 3, and OSU's went from 16 to 11.
pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121




Powered by AspNetForum 6.9.9.0 © 2006-2010 Jitbit Software